The Yugoslav deficit on balance of payments

The article sets out to analyse what measures would have been necessary to remove the persistant post-war Yugoslav deficit on balance of payments, and the problems and constraints, both economic and more broadly socio-political, that any given policy measure, or set of measures, might have run into. On the basis of this some conclusions are drawn on the nature of Yugoslav economic development since the war, and the relevance of Yugoslav experience to developmental problems in general. The article includes detailed statistics on the Yugoslav balance of payments.     

The impact of technology imports on technology balance of payments in Korea: an ARDL bounds testing approach

This study empirically analyses the impact of technology imports on the technology balance of payments in Korea during 1981–2013 using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of co-integration. We estimate the long- and short-run coefficients of the technology balance of payments with respect to technology imports. The results show that technology imports produce positive effects on the technology balance of payments in the long run, although it has negative effects in the short run.     

Trade protection and balance of payments problems

A model to be used for planning short-term in-patient medical care is presented. The individual clinic is treated as a production unit which produces different kinds of treated wardcases with a given technique of production (given production-cost-structure). It is assumed to maximize the yearly number of treated wardcases under the constraints of (1) The yearly demand for different kinds of treated wardcases, which is assumed to be proportional to the number of citizens within the area which the clinic serves (the clinics population), (2) The yearly budget which is assigned by public authorities and has to cover all costs as the medical care is supplied free of charge, (3) The clinics physical capacity, measured by the number of beds.

The model has been applied to the branch of general medicine using the estimated production-cost-structure at an existing clinic within this branch. The kind of information that one can get is illustrated, for example: Given a clinic with a certain technique of production (production-cost-structure) which optimizes its production in the way that the model assumes, what is the marginal effects of changes in the size of budget, physical capacity or the size of population? In the case of an existing clinic, perhaps it serves too big a population (the marginal effect of reducing this constraint is zero)? or, when establishing a given kind of clinic what is the best combination of population size, size of budget and physical capacity? How much of the demand will be unsatisfied with different combinations, i.e. how large will the queues become?     

Tax rebating of exports and the balance of payments

Tax rebating has recently been given heavy emphasis as a means of improving a country's balance of payments and recommendations have been made for the substitution of taxes that are fully rebated on exports for taxes that are only partly rebated or are not rebated at all. This paper gives the conditions under which tax rebating would improve a country's balance of payments. It shows that whether tax rebating of exports improves the balance of payments or not depends upon the size of the price elasticity and of the import component of exports. It then shows that, with the available evidence concerning the size of the price elasticities and of the import components in a number of European countries, export rebating may harm rather than improve their balances of payments.     

De-industrialisation and the balance of payments in advanced economies

This paper defines de-industrialisation as a secular declinein the share of manufacturing in national employment. De-industrialisation,in this sense, has been a widespread feature of economic growthin advanced economies in recent decades. The paper considersbriefly what explains this development and quantifies some ofthe factors responsible. It then examines the experience ofBritain and America, which are two countries that have combinedrapid de-industrialisation with a strong overall economic performance.The paper considers both the domestic situation of manufacturingindustry in these countries and its foreign trade performance.It concludes by examining in detail the British balance of payments,and documenting how improvements in the non-manufacturing spherehave helped offset a worsening performance in manufacturingtrade.     

The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs1

A panel dataset for six Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) is used to estimate the monetary exchange rate model with panel cointegration methods, including the Pooled Mean Group estimator, the Fully Modified Least Square estimator and the Dynamic Least Square estimator. The monetary model is able to convincingly explain the long‐run exchange rate relationships of a group of CEECs, particularly when this is supplemented by a Balassa–Samuelson effect. Our estimated long‐run monetary equations are used to compute equilibrium exchange rates. Finally, we discuss the implications for the accession of selected countries to the European Economic and Monetary Union.     

The opportunistic approach to monetary policy and financial market conditions

We test the concept of the opportunistic approach to monetary policy in South Africa post-2000 inflation targeting regime. The article contributes to the current debate on central banks having additional objectives over and above inflation and output by incorporating a measure of financial conditions in the modelling framework. Our findings support the two features of the opportunistic approach. First, we find that the models that include an intermediate target that reflects the recent history of inflation rather than simple inflation target improve the fit of the models. Second, the data supports the view that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) behaves with some degree of nonresponsiveness when inflation is within the zone of discretion but react aggressively otherwise. Recursive estimates from our preferred model reveal that overall there has been a subdued reaction to inflation, output and financial conditions amidst the increased economic uncertainty of the 2007–2009 financial crisis.     

中国国际收支平衡:模式选择与目标方向

改革开放以来,随着我国积极参与国际分工合作,工业化和市场化进程不断加深,我国的国际收支状况发生了根本性的变化,主要矛盾由外汇短缺转为贸易顺差过大和外汇储备增长过快.自2001年中国加入WTO以来,国际收支"双顺差"高速增长所带来的人民币升值压力及其他相关负面影响已引起国家的高度关注(见图1),虽然采取了一系列旨在促进国际收支平衡的政策,但从效果来看尚未达到预想的目标,中国国际收支继续保持经常项目和资本项目"双顺差"持续快速增长格局.     

Finance,power, and the British balance of payments

ABSTRACT

The Brexit referendum marks a critical juncture in Britain’s political economy. Benjamin Cohen argues that a nation’s monetary sovereignty lies in its balance of payments (BoP) flexibility (2008, 2015). I argue that a country’s position in the global financial régime must also be accounted for when explaining its BoP dynamics. This allows us to understand why, while sterling has long lost its ‘world currency’ status, Britain’s BoP exhibits some of the same features associated with American ‘exorbitant privilege’. To appreciate the UK’s own BoP flexibilities as well as to flesh out the Anglo-American axis in the international financial order, I compare the UK’s external balance sheets with those of the US. Given the complexities and uncertainties inherent in BoP analyses, I advise against micro-analyses of the BoP in favour of a broader approach that takes into account macro-dynamics as well as the International Political Economy (IPE) concerns outlined above. Elaborating such an analysis for the UK BoP, I explore the potential implications of Brexit for Britain’s external balance sheets and its political-economic future. While Britain’s financial power has helped insulate its balance sheets from external shocks, Britain’s impending departure from the European Union heralds a period of considerable uncertainty.     

The monetary transmission mechanism: evidence and implications for European Monetary Union

We provide some evidence consistent with a heterogeneous credit channel of monetary policy transmission in the European Union. Using the techniques of cointegration and Error Correction Models, we have shown that the external finance premium is one important leading indicator of real economic activity in Germany and Italy. No evidence is found for France and the UK. Therefore, a common monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank might be transmitted in different ways across the member countries of the monetary union, thus exacerbating existing regional disparities among the member countries.     

Pitfalls in the Theory of Growth: An application to the balance of payments constrained growth model

In 1851 the French Social economist Auguste Ott discussed the problem of gluts and commercial crises, together with the issue of distributive justice between workers in co-operative societies. He did so by means of a ‘simple reproduction scheme’ sharing some features with modern intersectoral transactions tables, in particular in terms of their graphical representation. This paper presents Ott's theory of crises (which was based on the disappointment of expectations) and the context of his model, and discusses its peculiarities, supplying a new piece for the reconstruction of the prehistory of input–output analysis.     

Capital movements, growth, and balance of payments

This paper develops a stylized model to examine how the adjustments of balance-of-payments accounts along with the growth path depend on capital mobility, investment behavior, saving behavior, and the magnitude of stock variables. The dynamic investment theory developed by Uzawa and the dynamic portfolio behavior model developed by Metzler are the two building blocks of our model. A two-panel diagram is developed to illustrate the flow and stock aspects of short-run equilibrium. To analyze the pattern of economic growth, we employ dynamic phase diagrams.     

Causality and the structure of Canada's balance of payments: Evidence from time series

Recent historical data on Canada's balance of payments reveals a persistent pattern of current account deficits and capital account surpluses. The theoretical interpretation and significance of this recurrent pattern are controversial issues among economists. The essence of this debate is, in our view, a disagreement of a more fundamental nature concerning the underlying causal relationship between the current and capital accounts. Three different causal viewpoints are identified and discussed. Then, an empirical investigation using both bivariate and multivariate time series analysis is conducted in order to help discriminate among the viewpoints. Our findings strongly suggest a feedback relation between the current and the long-term capital account indicating that unidirectional causal viewpoints are inconsistent with the Canadian experience. We are grateful to the editor and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments.     

Growth promoting policies,distribution, and the balance of payments

This paper studies the consequences of growth promoting policies for income distribution, aggregate savings, and the balance of payments in a small open economy. We focus on the case of a reduction in capital income taxation. Then the traditional OLG model, which emphasizes the inter-generational distribution, predicts that both investment and consumption are boosted. It is obvious then that the trade balance deteriorates. However, we show that this result is no longer robust if one allows for heterogeneity of agents within each generation. Then the intra-generational distribution effect, which implies a negative relationship between the share of capital income and aggregate consumption, may cause consumption to decline, and the trade balance to improve. This effect concurs with the classical, or post-Keynesian view on the relationship between distribution and savings. This post-Keynesian effect is, however, important for the short run only; the long-term result for the trade balance is not essentially changed by allowing for intra-generational heterogeneity.     

The characteristics of a monetary economy: a Keynes-Schumpeter approach

Mainstream monetary theory considers money only as an instrumentmeant to facilitate trading without having any effect on incomeor on the evolution of the economic system. The aim of thispaper is to elaborate a monetary theory capable of supportingthe thesis of money non-neutrality based on the arguments developedby Keynes and Schumpeter. The synthesis of the theories of thesetwo great economists will be formulated starting from the twopoints which are common in the views of Keynes and Schumpeter.First, in contrast with mainstream theory, Keynes and Schumpeterstate that the diffusion of a fiat money induces a radical modificationinto the way in which the economic system works. Second, whenKeynes and Schumpeter describe the reasons why money and financialaggregates are not neutral, they highlight the fundamental roleof the credit market and of banks; in contrast with the mainstreamtheory, they do not consider the credit market as the mirrorimage of the goods market.