Collusion Along the Learning Curve: Theory and Evidence From the Semiconductor Industry*

I study the effectiveness of collusion during an international cartel in DRAM, a type of semiconductor characterized by learning-by-doing and multiproduct competition. First, by exploiting time and firm-level variation in cartel activity, I estimate that cartel participants cut output more on the oldest product generation than on newer generations. This is consistent with a hypothesis that higher learning rates in newer generations make defection from collusive equilibria more attractive. Second, I formulate a test for defection from collusive equilibria in learning-by-doing industries. Third, I formalize these results in a theoretical framework and discuss implications for antitrust policy in high technology markets.     

Price reaction functions and conjectural variations

Price conjectural variations are estimated to measure the degree of price competition in a product differentiated oligopoly. The empirical model is a simultaneous equation system of product demand and price reaction functions. Own and cross price demand elasticities are estimated in conjunction with the price conjectural variations and price reaction function elasticities. The conjectural variations are estimated for pairs of ready-to-eat breakfast cereal products using brand price and quantity data. The empirical results reject competitive brand pricing behavior in favor of independent or collusive pricing. Further, the hypothesis of a unique consistent conjecture is rejected.     

Third-Degree Price Discrimination in Oligopoly when Markets are Covered*

We analyze oligopolistic third-degree price discrimination relative to uniform pricing when markets are covered. Pricing equilibria are critically determined by supply-side features such as the number of firms and their marginal cost differences. It follows that each firm's Lerner index under uniform pricing is equal to the weighted harmonic mean of the firm's relative margins under discriminatory pricing. Uniform pricing then lowers average prices and raises consumer surplus. We can calculate the gain in consumer surplus and loss in firms' profits from uniform pricing based only on the market data of the discriminatory equilibrium (i.e., prices and quantities).     

The Small Firm in a Quantity Choosing Game: Some Experimental Evidence

We demonstrate with a grim trigger strategy that the small firm should be more willing to collude tacitly as its market share declines; large firms should be less willing to cooperate. The small firm is not a maverick. The intensity of rivalry between two firms with asymmetric market shares is studied in experimental markets. Treatments give duopolists (1) 50% shares, (2) a 60 or 40% share, and (3) an 80 or 20% share. Choices for the small firm in the latter treatments are not significantly larger than the collusive choice. Irrespective of relative size, firms in all three market environments exhibit collusive behavior.     

Cartel pricing dynamics with cost variability and endogenous buyer detection

This paper characterizes collusive pricing patterns when buyers may detect the presence of a cartel. Buyers are assumed to become suspicious when observed prices are anomalous. We find that the cartel price path is comprised of two phases. During the transitional phase, price is generally rising and relatively unresponsive to cost shocks. During the stationary phase, price responds to cost but is much less sensitive than under non-collusion or simple monopoly; a low price variance may then be a collusive marker. Compared to when firms do not collude, cost shocks take a longer time to pass-through to price.     

Industry Update: Airlines

Recent developments in the airline industry are notable in three respects. A rising tide of concentration, which is accelerating and expanding through a proliferation of alliances among major carriers at home and abroad; a recurring resort to predatory pricing by the majors which continues to subvert competition by low-cost independents; and an intensification of the tacitly collusive, noncompetitive pricing behavior expected to emerge in such a highly concentrated structural milieu.     

垂直合约与产业环境贸易政策——环境成本内部化及中国的策略选择

全球经济一体化背景下,发达国家利用环境贸易政策来实现竞争优势已经出现趋势。本文介绍了欧盟的环境贸易政策,基于环境贸易政策的背景,预设国内外上、下游企业之间已经构成一个产业链,应用Stephen F.Hamilton的垂直型结构模型,将数量竞争分为四种不同情况,给出了最大均衡供给量。分析表明,如果采用垂直合约,则数量竞争和价格竞争的最佳非合作环境政策均是庇古(Pigouvian)税。在国内下游出口商与上游进口品供应商能够达成合约的条件下,政府之间存在着非合作环境政策。因此,我国的产业环境贸易政策应当是努力实现环境成本的内部化。     

Spatial Price Discrimination in Input Markets with an Endogenous Market Boundary

This paper examines the welfare effect of third-degree price discrimination in a vertically related market with one upstream monopolist that sells its input to a continuum of downstream markets. Assume that the market boundary of the monopolist is endogenously determined. It is found that social welfare is necessarily lower under discriminatory than uniform pricing, even if the market area of the former is greater than that of the latter. This finding is contrary to that in the extant literature on price discrimination in final goods markets.     

Differential Pricing in Intermediate Good Markets

This paper studies differential pricing by an upstream monopolist whose cost to supply the intermediate good differs across buyers in the downstream. It is shown that, different from demand‐based price discrimination, cost‐based differential pricing shifts production efficiently. If total output (and consumer welfare) is weakly increased under differential pricing as opposed to uniform pricing, as is true for weakly convex final market demand functions, social welfare is strictly improved. The analysis is extended to the case in which both the upstream monopolist's cost to serve the downstream firms and the downstream firms’ cost to produce the final good differ.     

Collusive Communication and Pricing Coordination in a Retail Gasoline Market

This paper studies how communication is used by a retail gasoline cartel in Australia to coordinate price increases, a role of communication in collusion not highlighted by Genesove and Mullin (Am Econ Rev 91(3): 379–398, 2001). A unique data set from the trial record allows for quantifying not only the pricing dynamics, but also the communication patterns. Both empirical and narrative evidence suggests the collusive communication and pricing behavior is well captured by the price cycle equilibrium of the Maskin and Tirole (Econometrica 56(3): 571–599, 1988) model.     

An experiment on partial cross-ownership in oligopolistic markets

We examine coordinated and unilateral effects of horizontal partial cross-ownership (PCO) in a laboratory experiment. We consider homogeneous Bertrand markets where firms have symmetric, non-controlling shares of each other, and conduct the experiment with both stranger and partner matching. The partner data (repeated game) confirm the prediction that firms are more (tacitly) collusive with PCO than without. In the stranger data (one-shot game), average prices are increasing with higher degrees of PCO. This is inconsistent with rather extreme Nash predictions for this setup. We show that in a Quantal Response Equilibrium firms’ incentives to compete are reduced with passive PCO. QRE predictions explain the data from the stranger treatment well.     

Platform Pricing at Sports Card Conventions

We study a new data set of U.S. sports card conventions from the perspective of the pricing theory of two‐sided markets. Conventions are two‐sided because organizers must set fees to attract both consumers and dealers. We present several findings: first, consumer pricing decreases with competition, but pricing to dealers is insensitive to competition and in longer distances even increases with competition. Second, when consumer price is zero (and thus constrained), dealer price decreases more strongly with competition. These results are compatible with existing models of two‐sided markets, but are difficult to explain without such models.     

Price-Matching Guarantees and Equilibrium Selection in a Homogenous Product Market: An Experimental Study

Price-matching guarantees have been alleged to sustain collusive prices in a homogenous product market. Theories in this literature also suggest that there exist multiple equilibria (i.e., a set of price equilibria between the competitive and the monopoly price) when all sellers adopt these guarantees in such a market. Theoretical prediction in this case fails to pin down the actual behavior of players a priori. This paper illustrates the essential role of controlled experiment in testing the collusive theory of price-matching guarantees and thereby shedding light on the embedded equilibrium selection problem. In particular, this paper studies two highly stylized market models, obtains testable predictions, and lays out the design of the controlled experiment. Results indicate that these guarantees facilitate collusion among sellers and thus solve the equilibrium selection problem considerably. I am grateful to Jim Cox, Martin Dufwenberg, Haimanti Bhattacharya, and the editor of this journal and the two referees for their suggestions. I thank seminar participants at the University of Arizona and North American Economic Science Association meeting at Tucson, 2003 for their helpful comments. A research grant from ESL, University of Arizona, for this project is gratefully acknowledged. I am solely responsible for any remaining errors and omissions.     

Localized Competition,Heterogeneous Firms and Vertical Relations

This paper investigates the link between firms' geographic configuration and market power in imperfect markets. We consider two related setups. The first illustrates the relevant characteristics of the pricing equilibrium. A main implication is that the equilibrium price vector changes in accordance with the firms' spatial configuration. The second, where firms operate as downstream retailers affiliated to rival upstream wholesalers, shows that upstream market power is strongly affected by an index of geographic concentration which reflects the spatial configuration of retailers. Finally, our analysis provides several insights for market delineation as well as merger evaluation and remedies.     

银行卡定价理论的新发展--兼论对我国银行卡POS交易价格形成机制的启示

本文通过对银行卡定价理论新发展以及国外POS交易价格的研究．结合我国银行卡产业发展的实际情况。对我国银行卡POS交易价格形成机制进行了研究。研究表明：银行卡产业具有的双边市场特征和网络外部性特征使得银行卡POS交易的定价将是成本、竞争、双边市场需求等多种因素的综合反映。就中国银行卡产业发展现状而言，我国银行卡POS交易定价应该与国际接轨．由现有的单一定价模式转变为三级差别定价和二级差别定价相结合的差别定价模式。差别定价模式有利于建立科学合理的利益分配体系，促进和保障银行卡产业的持续健康稳定发展。     

Multiproduct activity in an experimental differentiated oligopoly

In a symmetric differentiated experimental oligopoly with multiproduct firms we test the predictive power of the corresponding Bertrand-Nash equilibria. Subjects are not informed on the specification of the underlying demand model. In the presence of intense multiproduct activity, and provided that a parallel pricing rule is imposed to multiproduct firms, strategies tend to confirm the non-cooperative multiproduct solution.     

Input Price Discrimination and Allocation Efficiency

This research examines the effects of input price discrimination on allocation efficiency and social welfare. Instead of assuming constant marginal costs, we allow downstream firms to produce under increasing marginal costs. When downstream firms operate in separate markets, even though total output remains unchanged, consumer surplus and social welfare could be greater under discriminatory pricing than under uniform pricing. Moreover, the social desirability of input price discrimination can still hold true when downstream firms compete either in Cournot or Bertrand fashion.

     

Quantifying the Effects of Price Discrimination Under Imperfect Competition*

This article analyzes the effects of broadband carriers switching from price discrimination to uniform pricing. Broadband carriers often use third-degree price discrimination. In Colombia, broadband carriers rely on government-issued socio-economic information to segment markets. I use demand and marginal cost estimates to quantify the effects of switching from price discrimination to uniform pricing in an environment of high income disparity. The results provide direct evidence of large consumer surplus transfers from poorer to wealthier households. Poorer households respond by subscribing to slower Internet plans, which may undermine prior efforts to increase download speeds in this demographic.     

Measuring House Price Bubbles

Using data for six metropolitan housing markets in three countries, this article provides a comparison of methods used to measure house price bubbles. We use an asset pricing approach to identify bubble periods retrospectively and then compare those results with results produced by six other methods. We also apply the various methods recursively to assess their ability to identify bubbles as they form. In view of the complexity of the asset pricing approach, we conclude that a simple price–rent ratio measure is a reliable method both ex post and in real time. Our results have important policy implications because a reliable signal that a bubble is forming could be used to avoid further house price increases.