需求量与GDP之间关系的协整分析与误差修正模型研究

本文运用协整和误差修正模型建立中国天然气需求的预测模型，并将中国天然气消费的长期均衡引入到短期预测模型。通过模型结构分析，得出影响天然气需求量波动的长期均衡控制因素（国内生产总值）和短期波动（国内生产总值，以及上一期天然气消费量），并针对我国天然气未来供需严重不平衡的局面，提出一定的建议和对策。     

中国天然气需求量与GDP之间关系的协整分析与误差修正模型研究

本文运用协整和误差修正模型建立中国天然气需求的预测模型,并将中国天然气消费的长期均衡引入到短期预测模型。通过模型结构分析,得出影响天然气需求量波动的长期均衡控制因素(国内生产总值)和短期波动((国内生产总值,以及上一期天然气消费量),并针对我国天然气未来供需严重不平衡的局面,提出一定的建议和对策。     

中国能源消费与产业结构变化关系的实证研究

为了探究影响中国能源消费增长的内在规律,文章运用协整分析方法对能源消费与产业结构变化之间的关系进行了定量分析,并建立了向量误差修正模型。研究结果表明,能源消费与第一、二产业产值之间具有单向因果关系,能源消费与第三产业产值之间不存在显著的因果关系。从短期波动角度看,能源消费量增长对中国第一和第二产业发展影响各不相同。从长期均衡关系来看,能源消费对中国第一和第二产业产值的增长具有一定的同向拉动作用。通过这些分析结论,我们可以更有针对性地提出解决中国能源供需失衡问题的方案。     

我国能源消费影响因素研究——基于长期均衡和短期波动的协整分析

本文利用协整模型和误差修正模型实证分析了我国能源消费与其主要影响因素经济发展水平、产业结构、技术进步和城市化水平之间的长期均衡和短缺波动关系。结果表明,我国能源消费总量、GDP、产业结构、技术水平和城市化水平之间存在协整关系,且长期内GDP和城市化水平变动对能源消费产生正向影响,而第二产业比重和技术水平变动对能源消费产生负向影响;另外,短期内各因素对能源消费的影响方向与长期一致,且误差修正系数较小,说明我国能源消费的短期波动并不算大。最后根据实证分析的结果,为我国经济发展提出几条建设性建议。     

基于VAR模型的能源消费与废气排放量关系研究——以山西省为例

为了实现碳中和目标，通过VAR模型分析能源消费与废气排放量关系，进而提出改变能源生产消费方式的建议。基于山西省2007—2021年煤炭消费量、石油消费量、焦炭消费量和废气排放量数据，通过单位根检验、约翰逊协整检验、建立误差修正模型和向量自回归(VAR)模型，格兰杰因果检验，做出出脉冲响应图并进行方差分解，得出山西省煤炭消费量、石油消费量、焦炭消费量和废气排放量的长短期均衡关系和影响力度。研究表明，煤炭消费使废气排放量呈高排放状态，石油消费未曾大的影响废气排放，焦炭消费使废气排放量先升后降。研究提出山西省能源生产消费的节能减排路径，包括应用先进煤化工和煤电技术、开发石油生产消费低碳技术、促进新能源技术的普及和应用、开发能源互联网及绿色金融等新兴产业等。     

北京市城镇居民消费与收入关系的协整研究

本文利用1986～2005年的年度数据,对北京市城镇居民人均可支配收入和人均消费支出进行协整分析研究,并建立了误差修正模型。结果显示,二者存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,且互为Granger因果原因。从长期来看。居民收入水平对消费的影响是根本性的，从短期来看．居民的当期收入对下一期消费的调节作用是较大的．     

广东省居民预防性储蓄、投资和消费的关系——基于协整的分布滞后模型和向量误差修正模型的实证研究

本文使用长期协整的分布滞后模型和多变量向量误差修正模型来度量广东省城镇居民1978-2006年预防性储蓄、投资与消费关系。实证研究表明：当期消费与滞后一期的消费、当期收入、当期实际利率、当期和滞后一期的不确定性因素具有长期稳定的均衡关系；而短期内不确定性因素与消费呈负相关，预防性储蓄和投资行为的逐步加强抵消了由于利率的下调对消费的促进作用。短期内各影响因素都会发生波动使得模型偏离长期均衡状态，但只是程度较小的暂时性偏离。     

贵州省卷烟消费影响因素及结构特征研究

对贵州省产卷烟省内消费量及其影响因素进行了协整分析,结果显示:卷烟消费总量及各类烟消费量与国内生产总值、人口数之间均存在长期均衡关系。在协整回归基础上,建立了描述贵州省卷烟消费短期动态变化规律的误差修正模型。最后,运用西方消费理论,结合贵州省卷烟消费实际,对实证结果进行了解释与分析,并得出相关结论与建议。     

“走出去”中国石油企业的战略思考

中国石油企业“走出去”的必要性和现状伴随着中国经济新一轮的快速增长期．近年来，中国石油消费量也快速提升，从1997年的1.96亿吨增加到2008年的3．65亿吨．年均增长率约6％。国内石油产量已远不能满足消费需求，对国外石油资源的依赖程度不断加大。目前，中国的石油需求将近50％依靠进口．而且这一比重还在不断提高。在近两年国际油价大幅波动、     

石油消费与经济增长关系的分析

随着中国经济的迅速崛起,石油消费量不断增加。本文分析了石油消费与经济增长之间的关系,选取1980～2007年的数据并运用协整理论和Granger因果关系检验理论,对中国石油消费与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。结论表明:1953～2004年,中国石油消费量与经济增长之间存在协整关系,石油消费量的增加是经济增长的原因;1978～2004年,中国石油消费量与经济增长之间同样存在协整关系,经济增长与石油消费量之间具有显著的单向因果关系。     

Penetration and Post-infection Development of Meloidogyne Incognita on Tobacco as Treated by Rhizobacteria Pseudomonas Fluorescens Strain P-72-10

The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction.     

利用膜技术回收利用碱性废水研究进展

回顾了利用膜分离技术处理碱性废水的工艺与综合利用技术所取得的丰硕成果，总结了各种治理方法的特点、适用性及发展方向。     

Taxing Times in Indonesia: The Challenge of Restoring Competitiveness and the Search for Fiscal Space

Indonesia’s economic growth picked up slightly in mid-2016 but remains below the level demanded by government and popular aspirations. Despite a plethora of reforms intended to increase efficiency and productivity, some policies are perverse and longstanding problems of implementation remain. The share of manufacturing has declined, the real exchange rate has appreciated, exports have dwindled, and growth has been trending downwards. The banking sector is stable but inefficient, with wide net interest margins and numerous barriers to competition. Trade protection, particularly in basic food commodities, has created high costs that weigh particularly heavily on the poor. Declining government revenues have placed increasing pressure on the public budget, even as the current administration aims to increase spending on infrastructure and welfare and to enhance productivity. In an effort to increase revenues, the government has announced a tax amnesty program and other measures. In addition, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the new finance minister, has taken steps to cut non-essential expenditure in order to secure high spending on infrastructure and at the same time keep within the 3% budget deficit limit stipulated by law. Although the overall debt situation is not yet alarming, declining revenues and budget cuts that do not fully reflect this decline are putting pressure on increasing debt levels. The government’s high-profile tax amnesty program was the major policy initiative implemented in the second half of 2016 that aimed to relieve this pressure. Despite widespread criticism of, and scepticism about, the tax amnesty (both within and outside Indonesia), its first phase had a much higher participation rate than most independent accounts expected. Revenues raised so far through the amnesty are less than 60% of the official target, but this is actually a strong result for the short term. The bigger question, however, is whether the amnesty is a key element of a more encompassing strategy to overhaul the system of taxation and tax administration.     

The causes of Japan's ‘lost decade’: The role of household consumption

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s and find that the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth, and increased uncertainty about the future are among the contributing factors. Finally, I consider whether demand side factors or supply side factors were more important as causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and conclude that the former (especially misguided government policies) were probably more important.     

我国发展天文旅游的条件、前景探析及策略思考

天文旅游资源从成因可以分为行星地球天文旅游资源、天体天文旅游资源和天文文化旅游资源三类。天文旅游方兴未艾,我国天文旅游具有很大发展前景。文章对我国开展天文旅游的条件进行了分析,对发展天文旅游的策略和措施进行了梳理。     

城市社会的开放与农民的城市化

城市社会在对农民的开放与封闭之中徘徊。改革开放后城市社会对农民的开放已经使很多农民城市化。城市社会对农民的封闭已由政策性封闭转向经济性封闭。城市社会对农民的封闭增加了农民城市化的成本和社会风险。必须加强城市社会对农民的开放,逐步消除对农民的封闭政策,以推进农民的城市化。     

信息化时代商学院图书馆的建设与发展——中、美四大名校商学院图书馆建设的比较与启示

信息化时代中美商学院图书馆的建设与发展,成为当今时代高等商学教育发展与进步的一个重要环节,对中美四大商学院图书馆的发展状况、差距进行分析比较,对促进我国商学院图书馆事业的改革、建设和发展具有一定的启示作用和参考价值。