Markups and fiscal transmission in a panel of OECD countries

This paper studies the role of the markup of price over marginal cost for the transmission of fiscal policy shocks. We construct time series of markups allowing for fluctuations in capacity utilization and total factor productivity and use an aggregate production function that is more general than Cobb–Douglas. Including the constructed markup series in a bias-corrected panel vector autoregression with annual OECD data, we find that a positive shock to government spending tends to lower markups while raising output. The positive output response appears to result less from increases in hours worked than from the positive reaction of capital utilization.     

Migration and labour markets in OECD countries: a panel cointegration approach

This article examines the interaction between immigration and the host labour market of 14 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries using nonstationary panel data methodology. We estimate a trivariate Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and derive causality tests to simultaneously assess the long- and short-term macroeconomic impact of newcomers on wages and unemployment levels in the host country. The results suggest that an increase of migrants is likely to increase wages in the destination countries in the short run but to increase them in the long run. There is no evidence of adverse effects on unemployment due to immigration in short and long-term except for Anglo-Saxon countries in the short term. Our findings also show that immigration is conditioned by levels of unemployment and wages especially in Anglo-Saxon countries.     

Pricing to market in European automobile exports to OECD countries: a panel data approach

This paper investigates pricing to market behaviour using data for European auto exports. The empirical analysis uses forward instead of spot exchange rates. Cross-country and cross-product analyses reveal that pricing behaviour depends mainly on the class of product, while the country of origin and destination appears as less important. Furthermore, the data do not usually reject the hypothesis of a symmetric response of export prices to depreciations and appreciations of the exporter's currency. Finally, although the point estimates confirm the combined influence of the business cycle and the direction of the exchange rate movements on pricing to market in most cases, formal tests seldom provide statistical significance for this result.     

Determinants of international tourism: a three-dimensional panel data analysis

International tourism is a fast growing industry generating half a trillion dollars in annual revenues and accounting for almost 10%?of total international trade, and almost half of total trade in services. Yet, it has so far failed to receive the attention it deserves from mainstream economics. This paper attempts to provide an initial understanding of the determinants of international tourism. This paper claims that international tourism, as other forms of trade in services, is driven by unique factors of production, and may be better dealt with in a single industry study rather than in a general equilibrium trade model. In order to understand these determinants the world is viewed as a market of differentiated products, and a discrete choice estimation technique is applied to a large three-dimensional data set of tourist flows. It is shown that a relatively simple estimation technique, combined with a rich data set, can deliver reasonable substitution patterns. It is found, among other things, that political risk is very important for tourism, and that exchange rates matter mainly for tourism to developed countries. These have exchange rate elasticity of about one.     

Robotization and labour dislocation in the manufacturing sectors of OECD countries: a panel VAR approach

Robots are the most important innovation which has affected the production process in the last three decades. Thanks to the latest advances in technology, they have been able to perform an ever-increasing number of tasks, eventually replacing human work within the whole production process. However, because of the scarcity of suitable data, the extent of this potentially disrupting process is not fully assessed. This paper makes up for the lack of empirical evidence on the effect of robotization on labour dislocation using data collected by the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) on the number of robots installed in the different manufacturing industries of 16 OECD countries over the period 2011–2016. We show that at the industry level a 1% growth in the number of robots reduces the growth rate of worked hours by 0.16, as well as the selling prices and the real values of the compensations of employees. Moreover, we show that a given sector is more likely to be robotized when it is expanding both in terms of relative prices and employee compensations. We conclude that, at least in the selected countries, the introduction of robots plays a key role in slowing down human labour and compensation growth.     

Social security expenditure and GDP in OECD countries: A cointegrated panel analysis

Abstract

Using panel data unit root tests and panel cointegration tests, as well as estimation techniques appropriate for heterogeneous panels such as the full modified OLS, this paper re-examines the long-run co-movement and the causal relationship between GDP and social security expenditure in a bivariate model, employing data on 25 OECD countries from 1980 to 2001. Our cointegration test results show strong evidence in favour of the existence of a long-run equilibrium cointegrating relationship between GDP and social security expenditure after allowing for a heterogeneous country effect. Regarding the panel-based error correction model, we find that GDP and social security expenditure lack short-run causality, but reveal the existence of long-run bidirectional causality. This shows that, in the long run, economic growth must be based on a social welfare policy that should be carried out, and economic growth can facilitate contiguous development in a social welfare policy. Lastly, we also provide evidence to support that social security expenditure can affect growth through the savings and human capital accumulation in OECD countries.     

Determinants of the sacrifice ratio: Evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries

This paper measures sacrifice ratios for all countries in the world over an approximately forty year time period, in addition to exploring the determinants of worldwide sacrifice ratios. We test the most commonly-cited determinants: the speed of disinflation, openness, inflation targeting, central bank independence, and political factors for both OECD and non-OECD countries. We find that the speed of disinflation is the most important determinant of OECD sacrifice ratios, but puzzlingly has no effect on non-OECD nations' disinflation costs. Instead we find evidence that greater central bank independence and more openness are associated with lower non-OECD sacrifice ratios. We also find that the ratio of government debt to GDP – a variable that is not important when it comes to OECD countries – is highly significant for non-OECD economies. Specifically, we find that higher indebtedness is associated with lower sacrifice ratios in non-OECD nations, suggesting that greater levels of debt do not lead to higher expectations of inflation. Furthermore we find evidence that the negative impact of debt on non-OECD sacrifice ratios is being driven by middle income economies.     

Tourism and trade in OECD countries. A dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis

This article studies the empirical link between international tourism and trade. We apply dynamic heterogeneous panel data techniques to analyse both long and short-run relationship for the case study of OECD countries. This link is studied by estimating the cointegration vector and analysing the short causality between variables. The analysis recognises that inbound tourism can promote international trade and also that international flow of goods requires and may encourage tourist arrivals and departures. The statistical significance of this link supports the presence of business opportunities due to the potential complementary relationship between tourism and trade. The results suggest a short-run nexus between tourism and trade, and that these variables are cointegrated.     

Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach

This paper investigates the possibility of Granger causality between the logarithms of real exports and real GDP in twenty-four OECD countries from 1960 to 1997. A new panel data approach is applied which is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. Two different models are used. A bivariate (GDP–exports) model and a trivariate (GDP–exports–openness) model, both without and with a linear time trend. In each case the analysis focusses on direct, one-period-ahead causality between exports and GDP. The results indicate one-way causality from exports to GDP in Belgium, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Spain and Sweden, one-way causality from GDP to exports in Austria, France, Greece, Japan, Mexico, Norway and Portugal, two-way causality between exports and growth in Canada, Finland and the Netherlands, while in the case of Australia, Korea, Luxembourg, Switzerland, the UK and the USA there is no evidence of causality in either direction.     

Business cycle fluctuations and household saving in OECD countries: A panel data analysis

We investigate the cyclicality of the household saving to household disposable income ratio for a panel of 16 OECD countries over the period 1969–2012. We find evidence that the household saving ratio is countercyclical. We empirically investigate whether the determinants of saving suggested by a standard buffer stock model of saving can explain this finding. The three main determinants of household saving implied by such a model (i.e., unemployment risk, household wealth and credit constraints) have a significant impact on the household saving ratio while their combined effect completely offsets its countercyclicality. The saving regression results are robust to potential endogeneity of the regressors, to making use of a reduced sample size that leaves out the period of the Great Recession, and to the one-by-one addition of variables suggested by alternative theories that also predict a countercyclical saving ratio.     

On the regime-switching and asymmetric dynamics of economic growth in the OECD countries

This study estimates the SETAR and STAR models and examines the regime-switching and asymmetric dynamics of economic growth for a comprehensive set of 10 OECD countries. The SETAR models of both Tsay and Hansen consistently reject the null hypothesis of linearity against the alternative hypothesis of threshold nonlinearity for all the sample countries. The STAR model reinforces the evidence and rejects the null hypothesis of linearity against STAR nonlinearity for all the sample countries, except Italy. The sequential F tests for the nested nulls suggest LSTAR nonlinearity for Austria, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands and New Zealand, and ESTAR nonlinearity for Finland, Germany and Norway. The forecast evaluations suggest that the SETAR models of Tsay and Hansen perform better, as compared to the AR, ARMA and STAR models. The forecasting performance of the STAR model is approximately similar to the forecasting performance of the linear AR and ARMA rivals. The persistence of lower regimes (with negative-growth or moderate-expansions) necessitates the need for the adoption of expansionary economic policies. While the longer durations of upper regimes (with positive-growth or fast-expansions) support the sustainability of the expansionary economic policies, the adequate precautions need to be taken for the inflationary implications of these policies.     

Demand for money in the selected OECD countries: a time series panel data approach and structural breaks

Time series panel data estimation methods are used to estimate the cointegrating equations for the demand for money (M1) for a panel of 11 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries for which consistent quarterly data are available. The effects of financial reforms are analysed with structural break tests and estimates for alternative sub-samples. Our results for the post-reform sub-samples show that the income elasticity of the demand for money has decreased and response to interest rate changes has increased.     

Inflation and real sectoral output shares: Dynamic panel model evidence from seven OECD countries

Models of the cost of inflation often conclude that inflation misallocates resources. For example, inflation may lead to an increase in the variability of relative prices and it is often claimed that this increase in variability leads to a misallocation of resources. This claim raises the following empirical question, does inflation alter the composition of real output; that is, does it change real output shares? We examine this question using dynamic panel data methods for nine sector panels each with seven OECD countries from 1970 to 2005. We find evidence that inflation changes the real shares of some sectors even when inflation is treated as endogenous.     

Limits to government debt sustainability in OECD countries

The recent euro area sovereign debt crisis has shown the importance of market reactions for the sustainability of debt in advanced economies. This paper calculates endogenous government debt limits given the markets assessment of the probability to default. The estimated primary balance reaction function to growing debt has the “fiscal fatigue” property (a loosening fiscal effort makes the primary balance insufficient to support rising debt) at high debt levels. The combination of this feature of the primary balance reaction function with the market interest rate reaction to growing debt determines the government debt limit beyond which debt cannot be rolled over. An application to OECD countries over the period 1985 – 2013 with a model-based risk-premium shows that current debt limits are high for most of the OECD thanks to particularly low risk-free interest rates. It also shows for some countries that current debt levels are not sustainable without a change in government behaviour. Most importantly, the framework illustrates the state contingent nature of debt limits and therefore the vulnerability of governments to a change in macroeconomic conditions and to market reactions. Last, computations with an estimated interest rate reaction to public debt illustrate that debt limits are lower in the euro area than in other countries because of a sharper market interest rate reaction to rising debt.     

Outsourcing and structural change. Application to a set of OECD countries

The examination in this paper aims to bridge outsourcing and structural change analyses in order to obtain more accurate insights into the extent of outsourcing and to extract more reliable policy recommendations for dealing with its effects. We do this by applying a ‘battery’ of outsourcing measurements to a group of OECD countries from 1980 to the mid 1990s. Expected results (e.g. the idiosyncratic outsourcing patterns of the UK) are confirmed on a more systematic and comparable basis, while original results (e.g. the low integration of business services in manufacturing in the former socialist economies) are based on the exploitation of new data.     

Macroeconomic performance and convergence in OECD countries

This paper investigates the robustness of the correlation between growth and a set of variables which comprises accumulation rates in human and physical capital and medium term macroeconomic indicators in OECD countries. We include these variables as additional regressors in the standard growth equation that comes from the human capital-augmented Solow model. Our results show that variables related to medium term macroeconomic performance affect both growth and convergence. In some periods these variables even outperform the explanatory power of the conventional growth variables such as the accumulation rates. Our results also suggest that it is difficult to analyse the contribution to growth of any particular macroeconomic indicator in an isolated way. Rather, these effects should be studied in a framework that accounts for the macroeconomic performance of a country.     

An introduction to the economics of immigration in OECD countries

The share of the foreign-born population in member countries of the OECD is increasing, and this article summarizes economics research on the effects of immigration in those nations. Four broad topics are addressed: labour market issues, fiscal questions, the political economy of immigration, and productivity and international trade. Extreme concerns about deleterious labour market and fiscal impacts following from new immigrants are not found to be warranted. However, it is also clear that government policies and practices regarding the selection and integration of new migrants affect labour market, fiscal, social and cultural outcomes. Policies that are well informed, well crafted and well executed beneficially improve population welfare.     

Immigration,unemployment and GDP in the host country: Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis on OECD countries

This paper examines the causality relationship between immigration, unemployment and economic growth of the host country. We employ the panel Granger causality testing approach of Kònya (2006) that is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. This approach allows one to test for Granger-causality on each individual panel member separately by taking into account the contemporaneous correlation across countries. Using annual data over the 1980–2005 period for 22 OECD countries, we find that, only in Portugal, unemployment negatively causes immigration, while in any country, immigration does not cause unemployment. On the other hand, our results show that, in four countries (France, Iceland, Norway and the United Kingdom), growth positively causes immigration, whereas in any country, immigration does not cause growth.     

Calories,obesity and health in OECD countries

Theoretical models suggest that decisions about diet, weight and health status are endogenous within a utility maximization framework. In this article, we model these behavioural relationships in a fixed-effect panel setting using a simultaneous equation system, with a view to determining whether economic variables can explain the trends in calorie consumption, obesity and health in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and the large differences among the countries. The empirical model shows that progress in medical treatment and health expenditure mitigates mortality from diet-related diseases, despite rising obesity rates. While the model accounts for endogeneity and serial correlation, results are affected by data limitations.