Skilled–unskilled wage inequality,product variety,public input and increasing returns: A static general equilibrium analysis

The paper develops a four sector small open economy model with two traded final good sectors, a public intermediate good producing sector and a nontraded good sector producing varieties of intermediate goods. There are three primary factors: capital, skilled labour and unskilled labour. Industrial sector producing a traded good uses capital, intermediate goods and skilled labour as inputs. Intermediate goods producing sector also uses capital and skilled labour. Public input producing sector and the agricultural sector producing the other traded good use capital and unskilled labour as inputs. It is shown that, if production technologies are the same for the agricultural sector and the public input producing sector and if the scale elasticity of output is very low, then an increase in capital stock (unskilled labour endowment) raises (lowers) the skilled–unskilled wage ratio. However, an increase in skilled labour endowment does not produce any unambiguous effect. On the other hand, an increase in the tax rate on industrial output and/or an increase in the price of the agricultural product, armed with the same set of assumptions, lowers the skilled–unskilled wage ratio.     

Public debt in a basic endogenous growth model

We work out the mechanism that makes public debt affect the allocation of resources in the long-run. To do so we analyze an AK growth model with elastic labor supply and a government sector. The government levies a distortionary income tax and issues bonds to finance lump-sum transfers and non-distortionary public spending. We show that the long-run growth rate is the smaller the higher the debt ratio if the government adjusts public spending to fulfill its inter-temporal budget constraint. If the government adjusts lump-sum transfers the public debt ratio does not affect the balanced growth rate.     

Auditing and competitive bidding in the public sector

This paper investigates the impact of a ministry's budget size on the choice between auditing a (Niskanen)bureau and employing competitive bidding in the provision of a publicly funded good. The ministry's marginal expected payoff increases fastest with budget size for auctioning as opposed to auditing. However, the ministry is shown to switch from a purely public provision to a competitive provision as the budget size increases even if expected fixed costs favor the audit. The study contributes to the literature by extending the Niskanen framework and by endogenizing the institutional arrangements for the provision of public sector goods.     

Inflation and the Impact of Budgets

This article focuses on the adjustment of budget figures for the effect of inflation on the value of government debt. It asks whether such adjustment improves their performance as a measure of 'fiscal impact'. If inflation significantly influences the impact of budgets on the real economy, policy-makers may make inappropriate fiscal policy decisions if they are guided by unadjusted budget figures. The article argues that if agents perceive holdings of government debt as part of their wealth, changes in the real value of debt will have an effect on consumption behaviour. Therefore to assess the impact of fiscal policy on consumption it may be necessary to adjust budget figures so that they accurately indicate changes in the real value of debt held by the private sector. This article adjusts a series of structural public sector borrowing requirements (PSBR) for the effect of inflation on the real value of government debt held by the private sector. An empirical analysis concludes that the inflation-adjusted budget series provides a superior measure of fiscal impact on consumption, and hence the real economy.     

Useful Government Spending and Macroeconomic (In)stability under Balanced-Budget Rules

It has been shown that an otherwise standard one‐sector real business cycle model may exhibit indeterminacy and sunspots under a balanced‐budget rule that consists of fixed and “wasteful” government spending and proportional income taxation. However, the economy always displays saddle‐path stability and equilibrium uniqueness if the government finances endogenous public expenditures with a constant income tax rate. In this paper, we allow for productive or utility‐generating government purchases in either of these specifications. It turns out that the previous indeterminacy results remain unchanged by the inclusion of useful government spending. By contrast, the earlier determinacy results are overturned when public expenditures generate sufficiently strong production or consumption externalities. Our analysis thus illustrates that a balanced‐budget policy recommendation which limits the government's ability to change tax rates does not necessarily stabilize the economy against belief‐driven business cycle fluctuations.     

Comparative analyses of fiscal sustainability of the budgetary policy rules

We construct a continuous-time overlapping generations model with an endogenous growth structure and consider fiscal sustainability under two fiscal rules: (i) the government fixes the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio and (ii) the government fixes the primary balance-to-GDP ratio. Under the constant budget deficit-to-GDP rule, fiscal sustainability is ensured when the initial public debt-to-GDP and budget deficit-to-GDP ratios are sufficiently small. Under the constant primary balance-to-GDP rule, it is difficult to ensure fiscal sustainability when the primary balance is in deficit or zero. However, fiscal sustainability is ensured when the primary balance is in surplus and the initial government debt-to-GDP ratio is sufficiently small.     

When is fiscal adjustment an illusion?

Fiscal adjustment is an illusion when it lowers the budget deficit or public debt but leaves government net worth unchanged. Conventional measures of the budget deficit largely show the change in public sector debt. Ideally, the measured deficit would reflect the change in public sector net worth. Many people consider it impractical to try to measure public sector assets. My paper does not discuss what the deficit should measure, but instead proposes a positive and testable theory of how governments actually behave.
When an outside agent forces a reduction in a government's conventional deficit and debt accumulation, the government responds by lowering asset accumulation or increasing hidden liabilities. Since government net worth is unchanged, such fiscal adjustment is an illusion. Using data from countries with World Bank and IMF fiscal adjustment programmes, and case studies of EMU countries' compliance with the Maastricht criteria, I confirm my theoretical predictions: fiscal adjustment in these countries was at least partly an illusion.     

Labour Taxation in a Unionised Economy with Home Production

The impact of payroll taxes on unemployment and welfare are examined in a model with household production and union–firm wage bargaining. The analysis shows that unemployment typically falls as the payroll tax rate in the market sector for household substitutes (the service sector) is reduced. This holds even when the payroll tax rate in the non-service sector is raised in order to maintain a balanced government budget. Welfare improves with a reduced-service-sector payroll tax rate only if unions are equally strong and firms are equally labour intensive across the sectors.
JEL classification : E 24; H 21; J 22; J 51     

Does Privatisation Pay?

Abstract
Privatisation has become a popular policy since 1980, particularly for governments facing difficulty in raising revenue. However, there has been no consistent attempt to estimate the impact of privatisation on the net fiscal position of the public sector, or even to consider how such an estimate might be made. The object of this article is to consider the implications of privatisation from a fiscal perspective .
Privatisation automatically reduces budget deficits in the short and medium term. However, this apparent benefit reflects the generally defective nature of the budget deficit as a measure of public saving .
In this article, case studies of a number of actual and proposed privatisations are presented. In each case it is shown that the savings in public debt interest associated with privatisation are insufficient to offset the loss to the public sector of the earnings of the enterprise concerned. In many cases, the sale price is around 50 per cent of the present value of the stream of earnings foregone. This suggests that the loss in public sector net worth is as large as, or larger than, the sale price .     

Pure rent taxation and allocation of capital in a two-sector open economy: A long-run analysis

In this paper, the long-run incidence of a tax on pure rent is analyzed in an OLG two-sector small open economy, in which one sector produces a capital good and one sector a consumer good. Contrary to what is obtained in a one-sector closed economy, a land rent tax does not necessarily foster nonhumam wealth accumulation and capital formation. The accommodating scheme for the government budget plays a crucial role for the effects of pure rent taxation. A rent tax stimulates nonhuman wealth if distortionary taxes on wealth or on income from nonland inputs are alleviated. The mechanism spurring capital formation is brought into action, instead, only when the rent tax is matched by a fall in capital taxation or, if the capital sector is capital intensive, by an increase in government spending on the capital good.     

KLEM substitutability: a dynamic flexible demand system

The theory of intertemporal budget constraint is applied to test Italian public debt sustainability, with the finding that current fiscal policy has not been following a sustainable path in the 1980s. In particular, we find that (i) while primary surplus is stationary, public debt is not, (ii) permanent shocks explain about 90% of forecast error variance of public debt, while playing a minor role in primary surplus and (iii) debt is not sustainable even if stochastic discount rates are accounted for.     

BUREAUCRACY AND TIME CONSISTENCY*

We construct a model that takes seriously the role of bureaucracy in the characterization of time-consistent policies. We argue that if the possibilities for governments to reduce the size of bureaucracy are limited, bureaucracy can be used as a means for influencing future governments. We show that the political process has implications for the size and growth of bureaucracy. Parties in power may hire bureaucrats of the opposite political color. This is a part of the time-consistent policy. Our model also gives an explanation for the growth of bureaucracy. This is a consequence of the time-consistent policies, i.e. policies that partially tie the hands of future governments. We also show that if public sector production is inefficient, the public sector will be too large in the long run. In the short run it may be too small.     

Unbalanced government budgets,private asset holdings,and the traditional comparative static multipliers

During the past quarter century, the traditional macro model of effective demand has been criticized repeatedly for ignoring certain asset market effects associated with government policy. The customary approach in using an underlying framework for this model has been to assume that government faces a budget constraint whereas the private sector confronts a wealth constraint. In this paper, we demonstrate thet if every sector faces a budget constraint, many of the aforementioned criticisms disappear. One particularly interesting result is that a balanced government budget is not necessary to achieve a stationary equilibrium for national income.     

Public-Private Partnerships A Public Economics Perspective

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are spreading all over theworld. It may be quite plausible that they were initially startedmainly as an attempt to evade expenditure controls and hidepublic budget deficits. But if they are properly designed andtransparently reported, PPPs can play a useful role in enhancingthe efficiency of the provision of services that were suppliedbefore solely by the public sector. This article provides apublic economics perspective on PPPs. (JEL codes: H54, L33)     

A note on the sustainability of full employment in the presence of budget deficits

In a recent issue of this journal, Tymoigne and Wray, as well as Palley, discussed whether economies can experience stable full-employment equilibria with persistent public budget deficits. This implies continuous growth of a stock-variable: high-powered money and/or government bonds in the hands of the private sector. Their discussion assumed a stationary state. The question is whether such a situation can be regarded as sustainable over time. This paper argues that a satisfactory solution to the problem can be found only by abandoning the hypothesis of stationary state and considering the effects that different compositions of public expenditure have on the rate of growth. To have a stable full-employment equilibrium with budget deficits, the economy must grow. Since the economy is assumed to be in full employment, the growth of aggregate output must be entirely due to the growth of productivity, which can be realized by changing the composition of public spending in favor of productive expenditures.     

How big is the Chinese Government debt?

China’s public debt does not provide a meaningful guidance about the government’s overall debt burden, since it also has various forms of contingent liabilities such as shortfalls in the pension fund, debts of local government investment vehicles, and nonperforming loans of the state-owned commercial banks. However, there is no authoritative data on the government’s overall debt burden. In this paper, we try to put together a complete picture by piecing together information available, following a consistent framework. Our results suggest that the Chinese Government’s total debt could be already above 100% of GDP, in contrast to the public debt/GDP ratio of 15.5. Urgent reforms are needed in order to reduce fiscal risks, although risks of debt crisis look small in the short term, given sound balance sheet of the public sector. Local governments’ borrowing without hard budget constraint presents the greatest risk to sustainability of China’s fiscal system.     

1998年中国反衰退措施效果研究

对1998年反衰退措施效果的研究表明:(1)由于政府预算规模过小,地方政府必须保持平衡预算且不能借贷等原因,财政自动稳定器对1999年经济复苏所做出的贡献微不足道;(2)在相机抉择政策方面,1998年的财政政策不具备扩张的特征,难以构成经济复苏的推动力。这一发现对于当前反衰退经济政策的制定和未来财政体制的改革都具有重要意义。     

Budget support to the health sector—The right choice for strong institutions? Evidence from panel data

This article examines the relationship of sector budget support to the health sector and the infant mortality rate for developing countries. Project-type interventions have been widely used in developing countries in the past decades. These smaller-scale interventions often did not bring the results that the donors would have wanted, at least on a macro level. At the beginning of the millennium, forums on aid effectiveness proposed new principles to increase the effectiveness of aid. Many scholars agreed that one of the answers would be budget support. This article tries to answer whether budget support is the efficient aid modality in countries with strong institutions. In the baseline scenario, a panel data analysis is applied, which includes 113 countries between 2010 and 2018. This dynamic linear panel model is estimated by using ordinary least squares (OLS) and system generalized method of moments (GMM). Health sector aid, in general, has a significant and negative effect on the infant mortality rate in the average country. Sector budget support is insignificant in the baseline estimation and when interacted with a governance variable. In contrast, project-type interventions exhibit significant and negative effects on the outcome variable. The results indicate that sector budget support might not be the superior choice among the aid modalities in the health sector, even in countries with good governance.     

Sustainability of public debt,public capital formation,and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations setting

Under the golden rule of public finance for public investment with a constant budget deficit/GDP ratio, we show that for the sustainability of government budget deficits there is a threshold of the initial public debt for a given stock of public capital, and that this threshold level of public debt is increasing in the stock of public capital. If the initial public debt is greater than the threshold, the government can no longer sustain budget deficits, while if it is smaller, the government can conduct a permanent deficit policy, which eventually leads to a positive public debt/GDP ratio.     

Increased Input Supplies,Government Size,Welfare and Trade in the Presence of Increasing Returns

This paper examines the impact of exogenous changes in the supply of primary factors of production on the relative size of government and welfare in the context of a model where increasing returns are present in the production of an intermediate good. It is shown that an increase in the supply of labor (capital) increases the relative size of government if the share of labor is large (small) in the public sector as compared to the private sector. An increase in the supply of capital increases welfare but the impact of an increase in the supply of labor cannot be unambiguously determined. In the context of a North-South model, the paper also considers the pattern of trade. It is shown that North will export capital-intensive intermediate goods to the South. Received September 13, 2001; revised version received June 1, 2002 Published online: February 17, 2003 I am indebted to Professor Bob Catley and two anonymous referees for invaluable comments and suggestions. However, responsibility of any remaining errors or omissions is mine alone.