The effect of environmental innovations on employment changes: an econometric analysis

This paper examines the determinants of employment changes due to an environmental innovation of an establishment. The data stem from telephone surveys in five European countries. 1594 interviews have been realized with environmentally innovative establishments representing the European industry and service sector. Based on results of discrete choice models, we show that if the most important environmental innovation is a product or service innovation it has a significantly positive effect on the probability of an increase in employment compared with the probability of no noticeable change. In contrast, if the most important environmental innovation is an end‐of‐pipe innovation it has a significantly positive influence on employment decrease. Methodologically, we consider the multinomial logit model and several multinomial probit models. We find that the estimates of the parameters of the explanatory variables are very similar in the different approaches. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models

This study evaluates the forecasting accuracy of six alternative econometric models in the context of the demand for international tourism in Denmark. These econometric models are special cases of a general autoregressive distributed lag specification. In addition, the forecasting accuracy of two univariate time series models is evaluated for benchmark comparison purposes. The forecasting competition is based on annual data on inbound tourism to Denmark. Individual models are estimated for each of the six major origin countries over the period 1969–93 and forecasting performance is assessed using data for the period 1994–97. Rankings of these forecasting models over different time horizons are established based on mean absolute percentage error and root mean square percentage error.     

Earnings dynamics in Canada: an econometric analysis

This paper reports the results of an empirical analysis of earnings dynamics in the Canadian labour market based on earnings data based drawn from tax returns between 1982 and 1994. Individuals' movements up and down quintiles of the earnings distribution are analysed using a hazard model approach. This represents one of the first studies for any country which models mobility across the entire distribution of earnings, including the middle and upper ranges as well as the lower ranges. The effects on transitions between quintiles are analyzed for the following variables: elapsed time spent in a given quintile (i.e., duration dependence effects), age, sex, geographical region, area size of residence, family status, language and overall macroeconomic conditions. One principal finding is that the conditional probability of transiting up or down the earnings distribution depends negatively on the elapsed time that an individual has spent in a given quintile. The earnings mobility patterns appear to be cyclical and exhibit some tendency of reversion to the mean, whereby the conditional probability of upward (downward) mobility is higher for those individuals presently situated in the lower (higher) quintiles.     

Diffusion performance of major steel-making countries: alternative econometric tests

The purpose of this study is to compare the speed of diffusion in major steel-making countries. This is a cross-system analysis, involving industrial market countries (Western Europe, the United States, Canada, and Japan), quasi-market economies (selected newly industrializing countries, India), and the central planning states (the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe). The study reveals that at least in this, significant case, the latter countries are clearly inferior, i.e. slower.The article seeks the most accurate measure of speed of diffusion of one radical steel innovation, the oxygen process. The speed is estimated by regressing a logistic function not applied to the steel industry to date. Parameters of a logistic function are estimated first with linear least squares methods and then with nonlinear (or iterative) least squares, to establish which offers more accurate estimation than the widely used linear approach. It is shown that the iterative method produces a better statistical fit.Associate Professor; the author would like to acknowledge computational assistance by Steve Langolis, Stanford University, and help in updating the author's data on the world steel production provided by Mark Shafter, London School of Economics.     

Children and female employment in Mongolia

Although a large body of literature has argued that motherhood has a profound and long-lasting negative effect on the employment and earnings of women, there is little evidence focusing on the post-communist region. This paper exploits the latest rounds of the EBRD-World Bank Life in Transition Survey (LiTS) and the Mongolian National Statistics Office Household Socio-Economic Survey (HSES) to examine the correlation between the presence of children of different age categories in a family and female employment in Mongolia in 2016. We examine the availability of childcare, social norms and attitudes towards women, as well as household decision-making as potential explanations. We find that small children decrease the probability of female employment relative to women with no small children. In particular, women with two children aged one to six years are 21.5 percentage points less likely to be employed. Our results also suggest that cultural biases against women may be at least partially responsible for the low female employment levels we uncovered. These results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variable bias.     

An econometric model of U.K. manufacturing employment using survey data on expected output

A model of U.K. manufacturing employment is estimated in which output expectations data are derived from Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey information. The output expectations terms are highly significant, and equations including them encompass more traditional models that use current and lagged output. In addition, the equations also successfully predict the sharp falls in manufacturing employment that occurred after 1979. One interesting implication of these equations is that the decline in ‘cyclically adjusted’ productivity around 1975, and the subsequent improvement around 1980, can be largely explained in terms of a prolonged period of over-optimistic output expectations by U.K. firms.     

Unpredictability in economic analysis,econometric modeling and forecasting

Unpredictability arises from intrinsic stochastic variation, unexpected instances of outliers, and unanticipated extrinsic shifts of distributions. We analyze their properties, relationships, and different effects on the three arenas in the title, which suggests considering three associated information sets. The implications of unanticipated shifts for forecasting, economic analyses of efficient markets, conditional expectations, and inter-temporal derivations are described. The potential success of general-to-specific model selection in tackling location shifts by impulse-indicator saturation is contrasted with the major difficulties confronting forecasting.     

Flexible employment practices in Europe: country versus culture

Abstract This paper examines extent to which variances in flexible employment practices across fourteen European countries may be attributed to cultural variances. Data were gathered through a survey of human resource practices in 4,876 companies. The results indicate that national differences between flexible employment practices were explained by cultural differences. Specifically, we find use of part-time work is related to power distance and individualism; contract work is related to uncertainty avoidance and individualism; shift work is related to uncertainty avoidance, power distance and individualism; and telework is related to femininity.     

Informal adult care and caregivers' employment in Europe

I discuss instrumental variable estimates of the effect of providing unpaid adult care on the caregivers' probability of being employed, using eight waves of the European Community Household Panel. I focus on men aged 40–64 and women aged 40–59 from thirteen Member States, aggregated in two groups of Northern-Central and Southern countries. Previous papers with European data found that IV estimates are more negative than estimates assuming exogeneity of caregiving. I show that this difference is not robust once account is taken of time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. Indeed, instruments turn out not to be needed, and the estimated effect is negative, but small in both groups of countries.     

信息化中女性就业问题的思考

信息化使女性劳动者劳动生产率、经济地位以及福利水平均得到了极大的提高,同时也使女性面临着应对技术与劳动力市场竞争变动的巨大挑战。文章论述了信息化与女性就业的关系,并针对其问题深入分析,力图为政府、企业亦或个人认识女性在信息化时代的作用和意义提供研究的参考。     

Rational expectations and the econometric modeling of markets subject to uncertainty: A Bayesian approach

Rational expectations theory is synthesized with Bayesian econometric theory to yield econometrically relevant models of competitive markets subject to uncertainty. The theory is used to derive both optimal estimators of the parameters of a Cobb-Douglas production function from time series data, and the equilibrium predictor of a future price. It is shown that a rational expectations price predictor is always an unbiased predictor, but that the converse is not true. It is also shown that the rational expectations equilibrium is a natural extension of the usual notion of a competitive equilibrium.     

Infrastructure-production system dynamics in national and regional systems: An econometric study of the Indian economy

Treating infrastructure inputs as quasi-fixed in the short run, a multi-equation econometric model of production-infrastructure (social overhead capital) interlinkages and adjustments is developed based on a flexible functional form. Adjustment dynamics are endogenized and costs of adjustments are explicitly incorporated. The model is estimated with regional and national data from India; results include optimal paths and speeds of adjustments for infrastructure inputs market inputs' own and cross-price elasticities and demand elasticities with respect to the level of output, infrastructure stocks and associated user costs; and production cost elasticities with respect to output and infrastructure stocks.     

Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An identification robust econometric analysis

We use identification-robust methods to assess a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) equation. We focus on the Gali – Gertler [1999. Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics 44, 195–222] specification, for U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rational-expectations assumption, and a modification which uses survey-based data on inflation expectations. The two specifications exhibit sharp differences concerning: (i) identification difficulties, (ii) backward-looking behavior, and (iii) price adjustment frequency. Overall, the results provide some support to the hybrid NKPC for the U.S., whereas the model is not suited to Canada. Our analysis underscores the need for employing identification-robust inference methods.     

An econometric study on the dynamics of urban spatial structure

Using data on 43 randomly selected census tracts for each of 39 U.S. cities in 1970, we present a comprehensive econometric analysis of a varying parameter density gradient (VCM) model in which the functional form, together with the variance components of an implied error structure, is freely estimated. We generalize a recent model of Johnson and Kau in which certain city- and tract-specific socioeconomic variables are introduced to depict the dynamic process of urban growth. Since these variables can be either controlled by policy actions or projected on the basis of time, we reexamine the usefulness of VCM framework for both forecasting and policy simulation purposes.     

The psychologisation of employment relations,alternative models of the employment relationship,and the OB turn

As part of this journal's provocation series, John Godard criticised the psychologisation of human resource management and expressed concern with the psychologisation of employment relations. This article uses four explicit frames of reference on the employment relationship to further explicate Godard's concern with the distancing of the field from questions about the structural nature of the employment relationship. This discussion is then extended to consider the magnifying implications of the turn within the field toward organisational behaviour research. Ultimately, the complexity of work and employment means that the field needs to be vigilant in embracing not only multidisciplinary but also multiperspective approaches rather than letting the field become excessively unitary.     

Fertility and female labor supply in Latin America: New causal evidence

We study the effect of fertility on maternal labor supply in Argentina and Mexico exploiting a source of exogenous variability in family size first introduced by Angrist and Evans [Angrist, J., Evans, W., 1998. Children and their parents' labor supply: evidence from exogenous variation in family size. American Economic Review 88 (3), 450–577] for the United States. We find that the estimates for the US can be generalized both qualitatively and quantitatively to the populations of two developing countries where, compared to the US, fertility is known to be higher, female education levels are much lower and there are fewer formal facilities for childcare.     

Gender policy and female employment: a CGE model for Italy

The gender integration in all areas of policy choices and at all stages of the decision-making process is strongly recommended by the European Union and represents an achievement that the Member States should accomplish when implementing policy measures. In a country like Italy, where the level of female labour participation is among the lowest in Europe, policy maker decisions should encourage and stimulate the demand for female labour without neglecting the global employment rate and income growth. The multisectoral analysis offers the possibility to bridge gender disaggregation within income formation and distribution from the production phase to the demand formation. In this perspective, this paper develops a gender-aware CGE model based on the gender-aware SAM for the Italian economy to evaluate the impact of different fiscal policies aimed to reduce female labour cost and trigger woman hiring in those sectors with high gender disparity.     

Frontier-free Europe: a study of female migrants in the banking sector

Legislation on 'freedom of movement' guarantees the recognition of qualifications between countries of the European Union (EU), and is meant to provide migrants with access to employment in all member states. This paper reports on a study undertaken of EU migrant women in the banking sector in Britain, Germany and Spain. The discusses the experiences of migrants with regard to access to employment and positions abroad comparable to those held prior to migration. Migrants in this case experienced obstacles in the access to such employment. Although their experiences influenced by labour-market needs, findings suggest that the determining factors for barriers encountered were differences in the education and training cultures of countries pre- and post-migration, and the values and attitudes attached to these in of expectations by employers and migrants themselves.