Credit market constraints and labor market decisions

In this paper, we examine whether imperfections in credit markets spill over to other markets, particularly the labor market. We take the case of Italy, a country that experienced changes in the mortgage market brought about by the 1992 European unification and other institutional shifts. These events make Italy a good laboratory to study the effects of financial markets on the labor market. Using household data from the Bank of Italy between 1989 and 1993, we estimate the relationship between female participation and mortgage use. We find a significant impact of mortgages on women's participation in the labor market.     

Determinants of Relative Sectoral Prices: The Role of Demographic Change

Demographic change raises demand for non‐tradable old‐age related services relative to tradable commodities. This demand shift increases the relative price of non‐tradables and thereby causes real exchange rates to appreciate. We claim that the change in demand affects prices via imperfect intersectoral factor mobility. Using a sample of 15 OECD countries, we estimate a robust increase of relative prices. According to our main estimate, up to one fifth of the average increase in relative prices between 1970 and 2009 can be attributed to population ageing. Further findings confirm the relevance of imperfect factor mobility: Countries with more rigid labour markets experience stronger price effects.     

The welfare cost of means‐testing: pensioner participation in income support

We estimate parametric and semi‐parametric binary choice models of benefit take‐up by British pensioners and use a revealed preference argument to infer the cash‐equivalent value of disutility arising from stigma or complexity of the claims process. These implicit costs turn out to be relatively small, averaging about £3–4 per week across Income Support recipients. Using the Foster–Greer–Thorbecke measure of poverty among pensioners, we find that allowing for implicit claim costs incurred by benefit recipients raises the measured degree of poverty by not more than 13%. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cost and Preference Heterogeneity in Risky Financial Markets

This paper estimates the magnitude of participation costs and preference parameters exploiting information on households’ participation decisions in the equities market. A structural model for portfolio choices over the life cycle is solved numerically. The parameters of interest are estimated using an Indirect Inference approach which makes use of the computed participation gains/losses. Participation costs are found to be significant, education and lagged participation being the major sources of heterogeneity. Also, the least educated are the least risk averse, and the positive effect of risk aversion on wealth accumulation dominates its negative influence on the risky asset demand. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measuring Financial Contagion Using Time‐Aligned Data: The Importance of the Speed of Transmission of Shocks*

This paper presents a new empirical approach to address the problem of trading time differences between markets in studies of financial contagion. In contrast to end‐of‐business‐day data common to most contagion studies, we employ price observations, which are exactly aligned in time to correct for time‐zone and end‐of‐business‐day differences between markets. Additionally, we allow for time lags between price observations in order to test the assumption that the shock is not immediately transmitted from one market to the other. Our analysis of the financial turmoil surrounding the Asian crisis reveals that such corrections have an important bearing on the evidence for contagion, independent of the methodology employed. Using a correlation‐based test, we find more contagion the faster we assume the shock to be transmitted.     

Structural estimation of stock market participation costs

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation, where consumers' decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs. The practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial education programs can affect consumers' investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4–6% of labor income; however, it varies substantially over consumers' life. The model successfully predicts the level of the observed participation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers' life cycle.     

Ratchet consumption over finite and infinite planning horizons

Ratchet consumers want their spending to always increase and never decrease. We find an optimal consumption rule for ratchet consumers by maximizing an expected utility that eschews spending declines, yet permits a range of choices for felicity and time preference functions. This solution can be tailored to fit both retirees with finite planning horizons and endowments with infinite planning horizons. We assume complete markets modeled by a pricing kernel generated by a Lévy process. When the kernel is log-normal, we obtain closed-form solutions for both finite and infinite horizons.     

Portfolio choice,behavioral preferences and equity home bias

We provide a plausible explanation of aggregate portfolio behavior, in a framework where economic agents have behavioral (narrow framing) preferences. The representative agent derives utility not only from consumption (standard models) but also from risky financial wealth fluctuations. Moreover, the investor frames the stock market risk narrowly and has loss averse preferences. We numerically solve, for the foreign equity share, a simple model of international portfolio choice, providing a possible explanation for the equity home bias puzzle. Only economic agents able to process correctly information deriving from stock markets exploit the diversification opportunities provided by international financial markets.     

Disclosure, Corporate Governance and Foreign Share Ownership on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange

We investigate the association of foreign share ownership with firm‐level disclosure and corporate governance structures in Zimbabwe, a developing country in Southern Africa. Our motivation for the study derives from the literature, which suggests that foreign investors: (1) generally have a preference for companies in which they are well informed and where their investments are more likely to be protected, and (2) avoid companies in developing countries because of weak corporate governance structures and low disclosure. Using data drawn from companies listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, we examine the effect of disclosure and corporate governance on foreign share ownership. We find that disclosure, proportion of non‐executive directors, institutional share ownership and audit committee independence are all positively and significantly associated with foreign share ownership. Our results also demonstrate that market capitalization, return on equity and liquidity ratios are significantly associated with foreign share ownership. These results are consistent with the notion that foreign investors have a preference for companies with effective corporate governance structures, companies with less information asymmetry, as well as companies with healthy cash positions. The results have implications for policy‐makers in developing countries in their endeavour to improve liquidity on stock markets through the participation of foreign investors. The results are also useful to managers in developing countries who are keen to increase the market value of their company, thereby reducing their cost of capital.     

Time Use,Exploitation, and the Dual‐Career Household: Competing Perspectives

This article evaluates Laibman's reformulation of Marxian exploitation theory, and compares it to two preference‐based analyses of household time use (advanced by Becker and Hakim). Using a quantitative Marxist approach, and the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), we show profound dissatisfaction with working hours for members of dual‐career households, and inequality, by gender, vis‐à‐vis pure consumption time. The results support exploitation‐based theories of the household, and cast doubt on such preference‐based theories of time use.     

Adoption of cleaner technology for climate proactivity: a technology–firm–stakeholder framework

The adoption of cleaner technology (CT) has the potential to play an important role in tackling the impacts of business on climate change on business. It is therefore important to understand the factors motivating the adoption of CT in business. Using a technology–firm–stakeholder framework, this study proposes a perception‐based model for the adoption of CT for climate proactivity that is tested against data collected from 106 firms in India. Six factors are tested using a logistic regression and five are found to be significant in distinguishing adopter firms from non‐adopter firms. The results suggest that the perception‐based model using a technology–firm–stakeholder framework is a useful approach for examining factors affecting the adoption decision. While techno‐economic benefits are perceived to be higher by adopter firms than by non‐adopter firms, other benefits are not perceived differently by either adopter or non‐adopter firms. In addition, adopter firms perceive lower financial costs and higher technical capability than non‐adopter firms do. Also, adopter firms perceive higher regulatory pressure but lower stakeholder pressure than non‐adopter firms do. Implications of the findings and future research areas are discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Retirement Choices in Italy: What an Option Value Model Tells Us*

Using Italian data, we estimate an option value model to quantify the effect of financial incentives on retirement choices. As far as we know, this is the first empirical study to estimate the conditional multiple‐years model put forward by Stock and Wise (1990) . This implies that we account for dynamic self‐selection bias. We also present an extended version of this model in which the marginal value of leisure is random. For the female sample, the model is able to predict almost perfectly the age‐specific hazard rates. For the male sample, we obtain a good fit. Dynamic self‐selection results in a downward bias in the estimate of the marginal utility of leisure. We perform a simulation study to gauge the effects of a dramatic pension reform. Underestimation of the value of leisure translates into sizeable over‐prediction of the impact of reform. Due to lack of data, results for males should be interpreted with caution since we are not able to fully correct for dynamic self‐selection bias.     

To What Extent Does the Interest Burden Affect Firm Survival? Evidence from a Panel of UK Firms during the Recent Financial Crisis

Using a panel of mainly unquoted UK firms over the period 2000–09, we document a significant effect of changes in the interest burden from debt‐servicing on firm survival. The effect is found to be stronger during the recent financial crisis compared with more tranquil periods. Furthermore, the survival chances of bank‐dependent, younger, and non‐exporting firms are most affected by changes in the interest burden, especially during the crisis. Our results are robust to using different estimation methods and different interest burden measures They suggest that one way for policymakers to mitigate the effects of financial crises by limiting firm failures would be to prevent financing costs from rising, especially for those firms more likely to face liquidity constraints.     

AN ALGORITHMIC INFORMATION THEORETIC APPROACH TO THE BEHAVIOUR OF FINANCIAL MARKETS

Using frequency distributions of daily closing price time series of several financial market indices, we investigate whether the bias away from an equiprobable sequence distribution found in the data, predicted by algorithmic information theory, may account for some of the deviation of financial markets from log‐normal, and if so for how much of said deviation and over what sequence lengths. We do so by comparing the distributions of binary sequences from actual time series of financial markets and series built up from purely algorithmic means. Our discussion is a starting point for a further investigation of the market as a rule‐based system with an algorithmic component, despite its apparent randomness, and the use of the theory of algorithmic probability with new tools that can be applied to the study of the market price phenomenon. The main discussion is cast in terms of assumptions common to areas of economics in agreement with an algorithmic view of the market.     

Financial participation and performance in Europe

This article assesses whether financial participation (profit‐sharing and employee share ownership plans) is associated with positive performance outcomes, and whether direct and indirect employee participation complement financial participation in this respect. It also examines whether employee involvement in the design of financial participation afects performance outcomes. The article uses data from a survey of listed firms in Finland, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK. Several outcome measures are used, based on respondents' assessments of the effects of financial participation. Higher participation in equity‐based plans, but not in profit‐sharing, is found to be associated with more successfil outcomes. None of fhe other forms of employe? pnrticipafion uins found to contribute to the success of financial participation. The results therefore cast some doubt on complementarity between financial and other forms of participation.     

SEMI‐NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF CONSUMER SEARCH COSTS

This paper studies the estimation of the distribution of non‐sequential search costs. We show that the search cost distribution is identified by combining data from multiple markets with common search technology but varying consumer valuations, firms' costs, and numbers of competitors. To exploit such data optimally, we provide a new method based on semi‐nonparametric estimation. We apply our method to a dataset of online prices for memory chips and find that the search cost density is essentially bimodal, such that a large fraction of consumers searches very little, whereas a smaller fraction searches a relatively large number of stores. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bubbles and Crises: The Role of House Prices and Credit

This paper utilizes quarterly panel data for 20 OECD countries over the period 1975:Q1–2014:Q2 to explore the importance of house prices and credit in affecting the likelihood of a financial crisis. Estimating a set of multivariate logit models, we find that booms in credit to both households and non‐financial enterprises are important to account for when evaluating the stability of the financial system. In addition, we find that global housing market developments have predictive power for domestic financial stability. Finally, econometric measures of bubble‐like behavior in housing and credit markets enter with positive and highly significant coefficients. Specifically, we find that the probability of a crisis increases markedly when bubble‐like behavior in house prices coincides with high household leverage. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF ENTRY COST IN FIRST‐PRICE PROCUREMENT AUCTIONS

In this paper, I investigate Samuelson's low‐price auction model with entry costs. The model's equilibrium implies that the distribution of bids is truncated at the threshold for participation. I use the model to estimate the cost of participation in Michigan highway procurement auctions. The null hypothesis of zero entry costs is rejected. Using my empirical results, I then construct an estimate of the optimal auction, which employs regular policy tools such as entry fees. Finally, I demonstrate the savings that the Michigan government could have made on payments if optimal auctions had been employed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The geometry of revealed preference

In this paper, we examine how the geometry underlying revealed preference determines the set of preferences that can be revealed by choices. Specifically, given an arbitrary binary relation defined on a finite set, we ask if and when there exists a data set which can generate the given relation through revealed preference. We show that the dimension of the consumption space affects the set of revealed preference relations. If the consumption space has more goods than observations, any revealed preference relation can arise. Conversely, if the consumption space has low dimension relative to the number of observations, then there exist both rational and irrational preference relations that can never be revealed by choices.     

Contagion in global equity markets in 1998: The effects of the Russian and LTCM crises

The Russian and LTCM financial crises in 1998 originated in bond markets, but rapidly transmitted through international equity markets. A multi-factor model of financial markets with multiple regimes is used to estimate the transmission effects in equity markets due to global, regional and contagious transmission mechanisms during the crises. Using a panel of 10 emerging and industrial financial markets, the empirical results show that contagion is significant and widespread in international equity markets during the LTCM crisis, but is more selective during the Russian crisis. Contagion effects in equities differ to those previously noted in bond markets for this period.