经济自由及其变动的增长效应-来自跨国经济增长面板数据的再检视

经济自由是市场经济的基础,是社会基础设施(Social Infra-structure)的核心内涵。经济自由的提升有利于提高存量资本的生产配置效率,并对国内外投资给出积极信号,推动经济增长。本文在新古典经济增长理论框架下,研究各国社会基础设施发展水平的不同及其转型动态,用近百个国家的增长面板数据验证经济自由水平及其提升的增长效应。此外,本文还用动态面板数据的GMM估计方法检验发现,经济自由是经济增长的Granger原因,而后者不是前者的Granger原因。该结论对发展中国家的经济发展政策具有指导意义。     

ON THE OUTPUT EFFECTS OF BARRIERS TO TRADE*

We study the macroeconomic effects of international trade policy by integrating a Hecksher–Ohlin trade model into an optimal‐growth framework. The model predicts that a more open economy will have higher factor productivity. Furthermore, there is a “selective development trap” to which countries may or may not converge, depending on policy. Income at the development trap falls as trade barriers increase. Hence, cross‐country differences in barriers to trade may help explain the dispersion of per capita income observed across countries. The effects are quantified, and we show that protectionism can explain a relevant fraction of TFP and long‐run income differentials across countries.     

ON THE EMERGENCE OF NON‐PROFIT FIRMS AS ALTERNATIVES TO THE GOVERNMENT*

It is well known that many non‐profit firms coexist with government firms in industries that provide collectively consumed goods and services, such as education, healthcare, social services, and art and culture. This paper explores the specific circumstances under which non‐profit firms can emerge as alternatives to the government. We show that a non‐profit firm emerges only when the residents’ median preference for a collective good is significantly low. This finding implies that, somewhat paradoxically, a non‐profit firm emerges to replace the government and provide a collective good only when the majority of residents consider the good non‐essential.     

CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE ON OUTPUT GROWTH VOLATILITY: NONSTATIONARY VARIANCE AND GARCH MODELS

This paper revisits the issue of conditional volatility in real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates for Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Previous studies find high persistence in the volatility. This paper shows that this finding largely reflects a nonstationary variance. Output growth in the six countries became noticeably less volatile over the past few decades. In this paper, we employ the modified iterated cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) algorithm to detect structural change in the variance of output growth. One structural break exists in each of the six countries after identifying outliers and mean shifts in the growth rates. We then use generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications, modeling output growth and its volatility with and without the break in volatility. The evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply in Canada and Japan, and disappears entirely in Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States, once we incorporate the break in the variance equation of output for the six countries. That is, the integrated GARCH (IGARCH) effect proves spurious and the GARCH model demonstrates misspecification, if researchers neglect a nonstationary variance. Moreover, we also consider the possible effects of our more correct measure of output volatility on output growth as well as the reverse effect of output growth on its volatility. The conditional standard deviation possesses no statistical significance in all countries, except a significant negative effect in Japan. The lagged growth rate of output produces significant negative and positive effects on the conditional variances in Germany and Japan, respectively. No significant effects exist in Canada, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States.     

SPATIAL PANELS: RANDOM COMPONENTS VERSUS FIXED EFFECTS*

This article investigates spatial panel data models with a space–time filter in disturbances. We consider their estimation by both fixed effects and random effects specifications. With a between equation properly defined, the difference of the random versus fixed effects models can be highlighted. We show that the random effects estimate is a pooling of the within and between estimates. A Hausman‐type specification test and an Lagrangian multiplier test are proposed for the testing of the random components specification versus the fixed effects specification.     

THE TWO‐WAY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND CORRUPTION AND ITS EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

The existing empirical evidence suggests that in low‐income economies, an increase in government spending leads to a reduction of growth. This article aims to explain this empirical fact by considering a growth model that incorporates a two‐way relationship between corruption and government spending. That is, government spending gives rise to corruption and rent seeking, which feeds back by distorting the structure and size of government spending. In addition, the cost of corruption depends on the wage rate. Therefore, in low‐income economies, increases in government spending tend to generate larger social losses caused by a higher level of rent dissipation and a concomitant rise in corruption and government inefficiency. Consequently, in such economies, an increase in government spending is more likely to result in a decline of economic growth. (JEL H3, O11, O41)     

政府消费规模对经济增长的阈值效应

揭示政府消费规模对经济增长的效应变化是合理调控政府消费规模和有效配置政府公共资源的重要依据。本文利用1978-2011年的数据,运用阈值协整模型对我国政府消费规模与经济增长关系进行了实证研究。本文发现,二者存在阈值协整关系,且政府消费规模对经济增长的效应始终为负,当政府消费占GDP的比重下降至0178 2（1978-1986年）,政府消费规模对经济增长的促进效应较小;当政府消费占GDP比重下降至0178 2（1987年左右）,政府消费规模对经济增长的效应发生非线性转移;随着政府消费规模的进一步降低（1996-2011年）,政府消费规模对经济增长的促进效应显著加强。实证结论表明,不断压缩政府消费规模有助于经济效率提升,尤其是将政府消费规模合理控制在临界值0178 2以下,可以更好地发挥政府消费对经济增长的促进作用。     

台湾地区要素投入对经济增长的作用

经济增长是由资本、劳动力、技术等多种要素共同推动的,各要素投入的数量、质量和效率决定了产出的增长。文章以经济增长相关理论为基础,通过合理选取和度量有关变量数据,构建台湾地区经济增长模型,并对模型进行计量检验和要素分析,从而揭示台湾地区要素投入与经济增长的关系,以及各要素在经济增长中的作用。     

RIGHT ON TARGET: EXPLORING THE FACTORS LEADING TO INFLATION TARGETING ADOPTION

This paper examines which economic, fiscal, external, financial, and institutional characteristics of countries affect the likelihood that they adopt inflation targeting (IT) as their monetary policy strategy. We estimate a panel binary response model for 60 countries and two subsamples consisting of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and non‐OECD countries over the period 1985–2008. The findings suggest that past macroeconomic performance of a country, its fiscal discipline, exchange rate arrangements, as well as the structure and development of its financial system have a significant impact on the likelihood to adopt IT. However, the factors leading to IT adoption differ significantly between OECD and non‐OECD countries. (JEL E42, E52)     

THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: TESTING THE NON‐LINEAR HYPOTHESIS

Theoretical models suggest a non‐linear relationship between government size and long‐run economic growth. However, testing this hypothesis empirically in cross‐country studies is complicated by the endogeneity of government spending and the accurate identification of inflexion points. This paper examines the non‐linear hypothesis by incorporating threshold analysis in a cross‐country growth regression. The methodology utilizes a sample‐splitting framework and follows an objective strategy for identifying and testing changes in the slope. The results provide evidence in support of the non‐linear hypothesis for a broad panel of countries.     

THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM A HETEROGENEOUS PANEL

This paper investigates the impact of government expenditure on growth, in a heterogeneous panel, for a sample of developing countries. Using generalized method of moments techniques, we show that countries with substantial government current expenditure have strong growth effects, which vary considerably across the nations.