DURATION,DEFAULT RISK,AND THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES

We examine the interactive effect of default and interest rate risk on duration of defaultable bonds. We show that duration for defaultable bonds can be longer or shorter than default‐free bonds depending on the relation between default intensity and interest rates. Empirical evidence indicates that in most cases duration for defaultable bonds is much shorter than for their default‐free counterparts because of the negative relation between default risk and interest rates. Results suggest that the duration measure must be adjusted for the effects of default risk and stochastic interest rates to achieve an effective bond portfolio immunization.     

THE ESTIMATION OF MORTGAGE PREPAYMENT RATES

This paper uses a model in which prepayment rates on large pools of mortgages are a function of the differential between the prevailing market rate for mortgages and the contract rate at which the mortgages were originally issued. The empirical part of the paper shows a significant inverse relationship between the interest-rate differential and prepayment rates. The relationship is most elastic whenever the current market rate for mortgages is between one and three percent below the contract rate of the pool. For a given interest-rate differential, the estimated prepayment rate generally decreases and the elasticity increases as the contract rate rises.     

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE DIFFUSION PROCESS OF SECURITIES AND PORTFOLIOS

The nature of the stochastic process generating the path of security prices through time plays an important role in dynamic theories of financial economics. An important consideration is the possible dependency of return variances on price levels. Using 55 years of data separated into five-year intervals, this study demonstrates that, in general, security and portfolio variances are dependent on stock price levels and the relationship is a function of portfolio size. The relationship is unstable over time. The results suggest possible detrimental effects of diversification and financial models based on log-normality are questionable.     

DURATION AND INTEREST RATE RISK FOR UNCERTAIN CASH FLOW STREAMS

This paper amends the Hicks-Macaulay-Samuelson duration analysis to allow for uncertainty in asset cash flows. An asset's duration measure then becomes a random variable which may possess no central moments. We show, however, that a transformed version of the duration measure is normally distributed. This can be used to make probability assessments of the sensitivity ofthe present value of an asset's cash flow stream to interest rate movements.     

THE RELATION BETWEEN THE MAGNITUDE OF GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES AND THE DURATION OF EQUITY

I examine the relation between the magnitude of growth opportunities in a firm and the duration of the firm's equity. Conventional wisdom holds that because cash flows from growth opportunities occur late relative to cash flows from existing projects, firms that can be characterized as growth firms have a higher duration. I adopt the real option approach to the valuation of growth opportunities and show that under certain circumstances the opposite can be true; equity duration can be lower for growth firms. I further show that the relation between equity duration and the magnitude of growth opportunities depends on (a) the magnitude of the duration of assets in place, (b) dominance of the firm in its industry, (c) the magnitude of R&D expenditure, and (d) the volatility of expected cash flows generated by the investment project underlying the growth opportunity. I empirically test these predictions and find the predictions are not rejected, particularly for the utility and banking industries. JEL classification: G31, G12.     

THE CHINESE SECURITIES REGULATORY COMMISSION AND THE REGULATION OF CAPITAL MARKETS IN CHINA

The rapid development of China’s capital markets necessitated the establishment of a regulatory agency that would administer market operations and protect investors’ interests. The Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) was established in 1992 for this purpose. In 1999, the Chinese Securities Law recognized the CSRC as the sole regulatory agency responsible for regulating securities instruments and markets in China. Although the CSRC is considered instrumental to Chinese accounting reforms and capital market development, it has remained relatively unexamined in the accounting literature. This paper contributes to the accounting literature by providing insight into an important regulatory agency that has enormous impact on the economic development of China. Specifically, this paper discusses the CSRC’s establishment and development, its regulatory efforts, and its achievements and shortcomings in its efforts to regulate China’s emerging capital markets. The underlying factors that explain some of the CSRC’s regulatory actions are also analyzed by discussing several cases involving fraudulent financial reporting.