The Dynamics of Intra-industry Trade in ASEAN*

The decision to establish the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) by the year 2008 has resulted in producers in all ASEAN countries except Singapore raising concerns relating to potential loss of market share and adjustment pressures. Underlying these concerns is the view that the expected growth in intra-ASEAN trade will be dominated by inter-industry or net trade (NT) rather than intra-industry trade (IIT). If most of the expected growth in trade is intra-industry, however, then the short-run resource re-allocation costs are likely to be lower. In this study, we employ a new methodology to analyse the dynamics of IIT in ASEAN. We overcome problems associated with using movements in the value of the Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index by deriving a formula that decomposes the growth in trade into the contributions of growth in IIT and NT. Our results suggest that the role of IIT in trade growth has been increasing in importance, and thus much of the recent concern that threatens the viability of AFTA may be misplaced.     

Risk Management in Small- and Medium-Sized Businesses and How Accountants Contribute*

We investigate how owners of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) perceive, make sense of, and practice risk management. Drawing on Schatzki's practice theory, we theorize on how and why risk management happens in SMEs. Thus, we fill a gap in the extant literature, which focuses almost exclusively on risk management within large organizations. We interview entrepreneurs and conduct site observations to gain insight into their risk management activities, the drivers that lead to the adoption of said activities, their attitudes toward risk management, and how their accountants may shape and contribute to risk management in SMEs. We find that rather than a specific set of formal processes, entrepreneurs view risk management as a mindset that emphasizes the preservation of key assets, creation of competitive advantages, and development of local talent and expertise. We observe practices that are mainly informal yet planned, deliberate, and fully integrated within the fabric of organizations that align with ideal forms of risk management. We also find that full-time, in-house accountants do help entrepreneurs with risk management, while external accountants, whose main activities relate to financial statement preparation and tax filings, do not systematically help entrepreneurs manage risk. We contribute to both the theory and practice of risk management by sharing empirical insights into how SME owners perceive, make sense of, and manage risk.     

新型城镇化视阈下村干部的角色转向

社会转型构成村庄治理的基本语境,新型城镇化凸显村干部角色的历史转向。村干部的角色研究是规避乡村社会稳定风险,引领乡村可持续发展的重要着力点。对比村干部的历史角色,聚焦乡村场域的制度转向、空间转向及需求转向,明晰社会转型规律和潜在风险,推进村干部角色的稳定与发展职能互补,经济与社会功能并举,生存与生活风险齐控,对于统筹城乡发展具有重要的理论与实践意义。     

The Role of Cost Allocations in the Acquisition and Use of Common Resources*

Abstract. For a common resource, we suggest that the benefits of fixed cost allocations lie not in inducing optimal utilization of available capacity but in deciding how much capacity to acquire. In the presence of sequential information asymmetry between the owner and two symmetric users of the resource, we show that cost allocations form a part of the optimal incentive contract. We derive an optimal cost allocation scheme and provide an explicit link between the allocated costs under this scheme and the fixed costs of the resource. Résumé. Selon les auteurs, pour une ressource commune, les avantages de la répartition des coûts fixes résident non pas dans l'induction d'une utilisation optimale de la capacité disponible, mais dans la décision relative à la capacité devant être acquise. En présence d'asymétrie de l'information séquentielle entre le propriétaire et deux utilisateurs symétriques de la ressource, les auteurs démontrent que la répartition des coûts est un élément qui entre dans le contrat d'intéressement optimal. Ils dérivent un plan optimal de répartition des coûts et établissent un lien explicite entre les coûts répartis au moyen de ce plan et les coûts fixes de la ressource.     

Role of TFP in China's Growth*

This paper uses the dual approach to growth accounting to examine the role of total factor productivity (TFP) in recent Chinese growth. Most previous growth accounting studies on China have followed the primal approach, which depends heavily on the national income accounts. Unfortunately, despite efforts to rectify them, Chinese national income accounts data continue to have problems that affect primal approach growth accounting results. The dual approach, in contrast, allows independent price information to play a role. Recent research has focused on the following two questions: (i) How significant has TFP's role been in post‐reform Chinese growth? (ii) Has TFP growth rate slowed down in more recent years? This paper finds that: (i) the TFP growth rate for mainland China computed using the dual approach also proves high; and (ii) there has been some slowdown in TFP growth rate in recent years.     

House Price Dynamics with Household Debt: The Korean Case*

This paper revisits the long‐run determinants of house prices, and analyzes the house price dynamics using Korean data taking into account the close relationship between house prices and household debt. The results of cointegrating regression indicate that the major portion of the rise in house prices in Korea over the last 15 years can be explained by changes in macro variables such as household income, the demographic structure, the user cost of home ownership and the housing stock supply. The results also confirm that house prices are, indeed, closely linked to the steep increase in household debt seen over this period. Estimation of an error correction model shows that the extent of convergence of actual house prices to their long‐run equilibrium path has weakened somewhat since the global financial crisis while the speed of convergence has slowed, indicating structural changes in the Korean housing market. Finally, a forecast for house prices over the next several years suggests that they are unlikely to rise as sharply as they did in the 2000s, given the likely changes in the macro‐financial environment, and that their future path will be closely associated with that of the household debt‐to‐income ratio.     

Recession-Induced Stress and the Prediction of Corporate Failure*

Abstract. In this paper we examine whether the occurrence of recession-induced stress is an incrementally informative factor that contributes to the predictive and explanatory power of accounting-based failure prediction models. We show that accounting-based statistical models used to predict corporate failure are sensitive to the occurrence of a recession. Moreover, after controlling for the intertemporally unconditioned “stressed” and “unstressed” types of corporate failure, we find that models conditioned on the occurrence of a recession still add incremental explanatory power in predicting the likelihood of corporate failure. This source-related characterization of stress appears distinct from other types of corporate failure that have been identified. Résumé. Les auteurs se demandent si l'occurrence du stress amené par la récession est un facteur qui apporte une information supplémentaire contribuant au pouvoir prédictif et explicatif des modèles de prévision des faillites reposant sur la comptabilité. Ils montrent que les modèles statistiques fondés sur la comptabilité utilisés pour prévoir les faillites des entreprises sont sensibles à l'occurrence d'une récession. De plus, une fois contrôlée la nature de la faillite de l'entreprise — faillite annoncée par le stress et faillite non annoncée par le stress sans conditionnement intertemporel —, les auteurs en viennent à la conclusion que les modèles conditionnés par l'occurrence d'une récession ont encore un pouvoir explicatif accru dans la prédiction de la probabilité de faillite de l'entreprise. Cette définition du stress liée à la source semble différente des autres types de faillite de l'entreprise qui ont été cernés.     

Dynamics of Capital Structure: The Case of Korean Listed Manufacturing Companies*

In this paper, we develop a model of dynamic capital structure choice based on a sample of Korean manufacturing firms and estimate the unobservable optimal capital structure using a wide range of observable determinants. Unbalanced panel data of Korean listed firms for the period 1985–2002 is used. In addition to identifying and estimating the effects of the determinants of capital structure, we take into consideration some Korea‐specific features, such as the structural break before and after the financial crisis and firms’ affiliation to chaebol business groups. Our results indicate that the optimal capital structure has been affected by the financial crisis. Although the results suggest that chaebol‐affiliated firms have higher optimal level of leverage and adjust their capital structure faster than non‐chaebol firms, firms’ leverage might be associated with factors other than chaebol‐affiliation, such as size, profitability and growth opportunity.     

S‐curve Dynamics of Trade in Africa*

Abstract: Two concepts summarize the short‐run relationship between the trade balance and the terms of trade or the real exchange rate, the old concept known as the J‐curve and a new concept that comes under the heading of the S‐curve. The S‐curve introduced in 1994 basically claims that while the cross‐correlation between past value of the trade balance and current value of the exchange rate is negative, the correlation is positive between the future value of trade balance and the current value of the exchange rate. In this paper we investigated the experiences of 20 African nations and found support for the S‐curve in eight of them.     

Economic Consequences of IFRS Adoption: The Role of Changes in Disclosure Quality*

This study adopts a two‐step approach to highlight the disclosure quality channel that drives economic consequences of IFRS adoption. This approach helps address the identification challenge noted by prior research and offers direct evidence on the role of disclosure quality. In the first step, we document the impact of the IFRS mandate on changes in disclosure quality proxied by the granularity of line item disclosure in financial statements. We find that IFRS‐adopting firms provide more disaggregated information upon IFRS adoption, such as more granular disclosure of intangible assets and long‐term investments on the balance sheet and greater disaggregation of depreciation, amortization, and nonoperating income items on the income statement. In the second step, we link the observed disclosure changes to the benefits and costs of IFRS adoption. We show that greater disaggregated information due to IFRS adoption enhances market liquidity and decreases information asymmetry, but does not affect audit fees differentially. Our evidence has implications for standard setters as they evaluate cost‐benefit trade‐offs when considering disclosure changes in the future.