企业债务的经济效应检验*

整体债务问题在中国相当严峻,其中企业债务问题也日益突出。本文利用中国工业企业统计数据,研究企业债务对经济发展的影响,着重研究了研发效应、生产率效应和规模效应,发现企业债务对研发投入、全要素生产率和企业规模的影响皆存在着显著的非线性关系。虽然在个别方面能起到正向作用,但其主体作用是负的。目前中国的企业债务水平很高,而且负债增长速度也很快,这无疑将会给中国经济发展带来非常严重的负面影响,且会不断积累高负债引致的高风险。     

AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF COMPETING EXPLANATIONS FOR THE MIDTERM GAP IN THE U.S. HOUSE*

Previous empirical analyses of the midterm gap have been unreliable for two reasons: the limited degrees of freedom inherent in national-level time series data, and the failure to adequately control for competing explanations. By using district-level panel data, this paper is able to circumvent those weaknesses. Both withdrawn coattails and systematic presidential punishment at the midterm play an important role in explaining the observed midterm gap. Economic factors have a somewhat smaller impact. Evidence of systematic punishment of incumbent presidents in on-year elections is also observed.     

AN EMPIRICAL STATIONARY EQUILIBRIUM SEARCH MODEL OF THE HOUSING MARKET*

This article specifies and estimates a computationally tractable stationary equilibrium model of the housing market. The model is rich and incorporates many of its unique features: buyers’ and sellers’ simultaneous search behavior, heterogeneity in their motivation to trade, transaction costs, a trading mechanism with posting prices and bargaining, and the availability of an exogenous advertising technology that induces endogenous matching. Estimation uses Maximum Likelihood methods and Multiple Listing Services data. The estimated model is used to simulate housing market outcomes when (a) the amount of information displayed on housing listings increases and (b) real estate agent’s commission rates change.     

THE ALLOCATION OF FEDERAL FUNDS TO PROMOTE BUREAUCRATIC OBJECTIVES: AN EMPIRICAL TEST

This article tests whether Job Training Partnership Act Title III discretionary funds are allocated to meet bureaucratic objectives. These funds are targeted to provide a rapid response to mass layoffs or natural disasters and are therefore well suited for detecting political influence because program distributions are awarded contemporaneously and eligibility is difficult to anticipate. After controlling for worker displacements and disaster declarations, discretionary outlays are higher in states with close congressional races, politically active constituents, and powerful congressional representatives. There is additional evidence of politics in the reduction of aggregate outlays during presidential election years.     

AN EMPIRICAL ESTIMATE OF THE RELATION BETWEEN TWO MEASURES OF ECONOMIC WELFARE*

The main objective of this paper is to explore and quantify the difference between two measures of comparative economic welfare: (a) the more or less conventional measure of per capita national income, and (b) the capitalized value of expected future income per capita. The paper begins with a brief summary of the argument in favor of the present value of expected future income per capita as a measure of economic welfare. This is followed by an examination of the empirical relationship of the ratio of the suggested alternative measure to per capita income and an analysis of the variables used to compute the present value of expected income per capita. The main conclusion drawn from the calculations is that very substantial differences occur in the measurement of relative economic well-being depending on which measure is used. A final section discusses the implications of this finding for international comparisons of economic welfare.     

AN EMPIRICAL MODEL OF LEARNING UNDER AMBIGUITY: THE CASE OF CLINICAL TRIALS*

This article presents a two‐dimensional structural model of learning under ambiguity in the context of clinical trials. Clinical trials offer an ideal environment to study learning under ambiguity. The randomization process found in these studies leaves patients uncertain to their actual group assignment. Therefore, patients cannot immediately attribute changes in health to the experimental drug. The article proposes the use of “learning instrumental variables” to simultaneously update patients’ beliefs of the treatment effect and group assignment. Patient learning is found to be faster when observable side effects are incorporated to account for the uncertainty in group assignment.     

中国高技术产业生产率影响 因素实证检验*

本文使用微观层面的企业数据,对中国高技术产业生产率的影响因素进行实证检验,发现资产增长、人力资本、企业利润、企业规模对生产率具有显著的促进作用,而资本劳动比、企业存货起明显的负向作用,外国直接投资等变量几乎不起作用。研发投入、银行贷款与政府补贴的实证结论与人们的正常预期不同,研发投入对生产率要么不起作用、要么起负向作用,银行贷款与政府补贴对生产率起着扭曲与阻碍作用,中国的一些特殊情况导致了上述结论。     

中国市场利率动态研究-基于短期国债回购利率的实证分析

通过统计分析,本文认为电子货币影响货币流通速度的因素主要有:现金比率、货币供给的“流动性”、金融电子化程度以及货币电子化程度,它们对货币流通速度的影响是不同的。进一步分析发现,中国电子货币对传统货币有着两个明显的替代效应:一是替代加速效应,二是替代转化效应。两个替代效应的存在使电子货币并没有加快货币流通速度,反而导致了货币流通速度的下降,这与大多数学者的研究结论相反。本文的结论也许可以用来解释近年来我国货币流通速度下降的原因。     

中国市场利率动态研究-基于短期国债回购利率的实证分析

该文利用上海证券交易所1996年7月22日至2004年8月26日间的7天国债回购利率对各种短期利率模型进行了实证分析和检验.结果表明,引入GARCH、机制转换以及跳跃因子可大大地提高短期利率动态模型的拟合效果.我们发现在1996-1998年间,国债回购利率水平、波动性以及突然跳跃的概率都要高于1999年以后,但是利率波动性对利率水平变化的敏感性则在1999年以后变得更强了.我们使用了HONG AND LI(2004)新近提出的非参数检验方法比较了各个模型的相对表现,发现没有一个模型可以准确描述中国短期利率波动.     

INSIDER-OUTSIDER EFFECTS IN WAGE FORMATION: AN EMPIRICAL SURVEY*

The paper provides a review of empirical work on insider-outsider and duration effects in wage formation. It presents a theoretical model to investigate the relationship between previous employment and the wage rate. The impact of unemployment and long-term unemployment is considered. Empirical results show that the effect of previous employment on the wage rate is generally insignificant. Both short-term and long-term unemployment appear to have a significant negative impact. Micro-studies reveal that both firm-specific and aggregate variables play a role in wage determination.     

LIVING RATIONALLY UNDER THE VOLCANO? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF HEAVY DRINKING AND SMOKING*

This study investigates whether models of forward‐looking behavior explain the observed patterns of heavy drinking and smoking of men in late middle age in the Health and Retirement Study better than myopic models. We develop and estimate a sequence of nested models that differ by their degree of forward‐looking behavior. Our empirical findings suggest that forward looking models fit the data better than myopic models. These models also dominate other behavioral models based on out‐of‐sample predictions using data of men aged 70 and over. Myopic models predict rates of smoking for old individuals, which are significantly larger than those found in the data on elderly men.     

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UK TREASURY BILLS AND THE TERM STRUCTURE OF CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT*

Using principal components analysis, this paper derives a direct measure of movements in the level and slope of the certificate of deposit yield curve. Appealing to the efficient markets view of the term structure of interest rates, evidence is reported which suggests that changes in Treasury Bill yields have a considerable influence over changes in the level of CD yields but only have a small, transitory effect on the slope of the term structure of CDs.     

城市化、城乡差距以及全国居民总体收入差距的变动-收入差距倒U形假说的实证检验

本文利用两部门模型,从理论和实证上分析了城市化、城乡差距与全国居民总体收入差距的关系。研究结果表明,改革开放以来,城市化是导致倒U现象出现的主要原因。首先,城市化的加快使得由城乡人口流动导致的收入差距于2001年开始缩小;其次,城市化意味着低收入农村人口比例的缩小和低收入城市人口比例的增加;最后,城市化促使我国农村内部收入差距拉大的速度放缓。由此,全国总体收入差距将在2006—2009年迎来倒U形曲线的拐点。     

财政不平衡与城乡公共服务均等化：理论分析与实证检验*

本文基于中国分税财政体制下中央和地方财政不平衡这一事实分析了政府间的财政关系,并利用省级面板数据和SYS GMM方法实证研究了财政缺口、财政不平衡对城乡基本公共服务均等化的影响效应。结论表明：在分税财政体制下基层政府财政缺口的存在,并不利于缩小城乡基本公共服务均等化,而转移支付作为弥补财政缺口、均衡中央与地方财政不平衡的主要机制,对缩小城乡基本公共服务均等化产生了显著的激励效应。另外,尽管较高的转移支付筹资水平和专项补助方式有助于提高城乡基本公共服务的供给激励,但在我国中央和地方财政不平衡的分税财政体制框架内,这一供给激励机制将会大打折扣。