简评麦夸里时代

麦夸里是澳大利亚早期历史时期一位杰出的政治家。在他管理的十一年中,新南威尔士有了较大发展。人口大幅增长,耕地大幅增加,羊的数量翻了十几倍,牛的数量也翻了将近十倍,猪的数量翻了3倍,马的数量也翻了3倍,促使流放地逐渐向自由移民殖民地转化。所以麦夸里使新南威尔士州从早期一块以收容犯下放逐罪者的殖民地,发展至能吸引自由移民,当中的转变和诸多措施,对19世纪前叶的澳大利亚社会产生了深远的影响力。     

Further Evidence on the Labor Market Effects of Addiction: Chronic Drug Use and Employment in Metropolitan Miami

This study used data collected from 1996 to 1997 in low-income and high-crime neighborhoods in Miami, Florida, to analyze the effects of chronic drug use on employment. Given the significant gender differences in substance use patterns and labor market behavior, separate models were estimated for males and females. The analysis estimated univariate probit models of employment and bivariate probit models that allow for possible correlation among missing or unobserved determinants of drug use and employment. The key finding was that regardless of gender and specification, chronic drug use significantly reduced the probability of being employed. (JEL I12 , J22 , J24 )     

The effect of sex antidiscriminatory legislation on the variability of female employment in Britain

This paper examines the variability of female employment in the 1970s. It is based on data from the New Earnings Survey so that the behaviour of employment in the manual–nonmanual and manufacturing–nonmanufacturing sectors can be studied separately. At an aggregate level the results are compared to those derived using data from the Department of Employment, to ensure that the results are not simply the product of possible sampling variation of the New Earnings Survey. The findings of this paper, though far from conclusive, indicate that female employment vis-à-vismale employment became more stable after 1976. There may be many reasons for the decrease in relative variability of female employment in the second half of the 1970s; however, the way our sample is split coincides with the implementation of the Equal Pay Act and the Sex Discrimination Act which have become effective since 1976.     

Probit Analysis and Economic Education

Spector and Mazzeo assert that ordinary least squares regression analysis has been misused by many economics education researchers. They explain that OLS is inappropriate for the analysis of discrete dependent variables, and they suggest the use of probit analysis instead. They then show how probit analysis can be employed in an economics education research project and compare the results of this approach with the results obtained by using OLS. (Those who want to know more about probit analysis might be interested in a new book, Carlos Daganzo's Multinomial Probit: The Theory and Its Application to Demand Forecasting, published in 1979 by Academic Press, Inc. Also see the bibliography provided by Spector and Mazzeo.)     

The theory of economic price and quantity indicators

Summary. This paper develops the theory of economic price and quantity indicators, being the difference analogue of indexes. The properties of indicators and indexes are compared. Observable bounds for the indicators will be derived, as well as two exactness results for Bennet (1920)-type price and quantity indicators.Received: 3 January 2002, Revised: 2 December 2002, JEL Classification Numbers: C43Previous versions of this paper were presented at the Economic Measurement Group Workshop 2001, School of Economics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 30 March 2001, and at a seminar at the School of Economics, University of New England, Armidale NSW, 7 September 2001. The authors thank Erwin Diewert for helpful comments on a previous version. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect any policy of Statistics Netherlands.     

Performance Indicators and Efficiency Measurement in Public Libraries

A sample of one hundred and sixty-eight New South Wales local government libraries is used to analyse the efficiency measures derived from the non-parametric technique of data envelopment analysis. Depending upon the assumptions employed, 9.5 per cent of local governments were judged to be overall technically efficient in the provision of library services, 47.6 per cent as pure technically efficient, and 10.1 per cent as scale efficient. The study also analyses the posited linkages between comparative performance indicators, productive performance and non-discretionary environmental factors under these different model formulations. The results indicate that the presence of exogenous factors and scale effects account for a major portion of the differences in observed efficiency between different groups of local governments.     

Examining the Economic Interactions Between Australia's Regions: Results From a Global VAR

Australia's economy, like most national economies, is made up of several regional sub‐economies. How these regional economies interact is not well understood but is relevant to macroeconomic policy setting. We outline and estimate a flexible Global Vector Autoregression model using quarterly data on house prices, output, unemployment and population for the eight Australian states and territories from 1986 to 2016. Using region‐to‐region impulse response functions from this model we quantify the influence of shocks in one region on another. Our results highlight the high degree of influence of New South Wales on other regions over and above its size.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

The Forecasting Potential of the ACMA Survey*

This paper attempts to assess the quality of the forecasts of three key economic aggregates that are obtainable from forecasting equations involving up to four period distributed lags of ‘relevant’ diffusion indexes, with and without a lagged dependent variable. The diffusion indexes are constructed from information published in the regular Survey of Industrial Trends by the Bank of New South Wales in conjunction with the Confederation of Australian Industry. Forecasts are evaluated by a set of four summary statistics and the results suggest that the published information has considerable forecasting potential.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF PUNISHMENT SUBSTITUTABILITY IN CRIMINOMETRIC STUDIES

This study investigates the role of punishment substitutability in the empirical estimation of the economic model of crime. Using a dynamic panel data model fitted to a panel of Local Government Areas in New South Wales, Australia, we evaluate the effects of financial penalties and imprisonment on the crime rate. Our results show that crime is clearly a dynamic phenomenon, and that failure to incorporate both financial penalties and imprisonment can lead to a misspecified model. Furthermore, our results vary significantly for different crime categories, highlighting the importance of analysing specific crime categories separately.     

The Economics of Law: Economic Imperialism in Negligence Law,No-Fault Insurance,Occupational Licensing and Criminology?

The aim is to examine the contribution which economic and quantitative analysis can make to a better understanding of the law. I concentrate on the common law action of negligence and how it is related to the optimal deterrence of accidents, rather than to the compensation of all accident victims. A critique is made of the New South Wales Law Reform Commission's proposal to prohibit negligence actions for motor vehicle accidents and to introduce a compulsory ‘no-fault’ scheme. An econometric analysis of new Zealand and Australian ‘no-fault’ schemes finds that the negligence system appears to have some deterrent effect on motor vehicle accidents.     

Self‐employment Dynamics in Australia and the Importance of State Dependence

Using Australian labour force data, both cross‐sectional and longitudinal, this study examines the dynamics of self‐employment with a particular focus on workers transitioning between self‐employment and salaried employment, and the extent to which self‐employment is the result of workers’ observed and unobserved characteristics or is instead determined by their prior employment experience itself. Probability models of self‐employment using both pooled‐panel probit and dynamic random‐effects panel probit methods are estimated, and the results are found to be extremely sensitive to the differences in the econometric methods. Once unobserved heterogeneity and initial conditions are controlled for in the dynamic model, the importance of observed characteristics in determining self‐employment is greatly diminished. Instead, workers’ past experience in self‐employment (as opposed to salaried employment) is found to have a large favourable effect on their future self‐employment prospects. The influence of this state dependence is also considerably more important in determining self‐employment outcomes than salaried ones. Despite establishing the importance of state dependence, however, what this effect implies about why individuals choose to become self‐employed or the role that self‐employment plays in the labour market remains unresolved.     

Women's employment,children and transitionAn empirical analysis for Poland1

This article empirically investigates how the transition to a market economy affected the relationship between motherhood and labour force outcomes in Poland. We estimate different probit models on two panel datasets covering a three‐year period before the reform (1987–1989) and a three‐year period afterwards (1994–1996). Contrary to a priori expectations, our findings indicate that during transition young children were much less of a deterrent to the employment probability of their mother than they were before transition.     

Local House Price Effects of Internal Migration in Queensland: Australia's Interstate Migration Capital

We examine the causal impact of internal migration on housing prices across 82 Statistical Areas Level 3 regions in Queensland, Australia from 2014–2019. The primary findings are: (i) an annual increase in the inflow of migrants equal to 1 per cent of a region's initial population leads to a 0.6 to 0.7 per cent annual increase in Queensland's house prices across different empirical specifications; (ii) this effect differs between the Greater Brisbane metropolitan area and Rest of State areas; (iii) migration from New South Wales fails to produce a significant influence on house price growth in Queensland.     

Explaining the appearance and success of open space referenda

Many communities in the United States have begun enacting policies to preserve open space, often through local voter referenda. New Jersey sponsors such municipal action through the Green Acres Program by providing funding and low interest loans to towns that choose to increase property taxes and spend the money raised on open space preservation for the purposes of conservation and/or recreation. This paper endeavors to understand which factors contribute to the appearance and success of these measures. Although previous literature has examined this issue, this is the first study to account for spatial dependence/spatial autocorrelation and to explore dynamic issues through survival analysis. The traditional two stage model from the literature is extended by incorporating a Bayesian spatial probit for the first stage and a maximum-likelihood spatial error model in the second stage. A Cox-proportional hazard model is used to examine the timing of referenda appearance. Spatial dependence is found in the second stage of the analysis, indicating that future studies should account for its influence. There is no strong evidence for spatial dependence or correlation in the first stage. The survival model is found to be a useful complement to the traditional probit analysis of the first stage.     

RIDGE ESTIMATORS FOR PROBIT REGRESSION: WITH AN APPLICATION TO LABOUR MARKET DATA

In this paper we propose ridge regression estimators for probit models since the commonly applied maximum likelihood (ML) method is sensitive to multicollinearity. An extensive Monte Carlo study is conducted where the performance of the ML method and the probit ridge regression (PRR) is investigated when the data are collinear. In the simulation study we evaluate a number of methods of estimating the ridge parameter k that have recently been developed for use in linear regression analysis. The results from the simulation study show that there is at least one group of the estimators of k that regularly has a lower mean squared error than the ML method for all different situations that have been evaluated. Finally, we show the benefit of the new method using the classical Dehejia and Wahba dataset which is based on a labour market experiment.     

Efficiency and Equity in Funding for Government Schools in Australia

This study measures cost inefficiency for government school in New South Wales, Australia using a two‐stage data envelopment analysis (TSDEA) model and the inefficiency‐effects model (Battese & Coelli, 1995). The study found overall primary schools are 75 per cent and secondary schools are 89 per cent cost efficient. However, cost efficiency for primary schools has decreased and for secondary schools has increased marginally over the study period. The study found that social disadvantage in primary schools exerts a strong negative impact on students’ achievement scores causing inefficient use of available resources. For secondary schools no such conclusive relationship is observed.     

Predicting Canadian recessions using dynamic probit modelling approaches

Abstract This paper examines the ability of various financial and macroeconomic variables to forecast Canadian recessions. It evaluates four model specifications, including the advanced dynamic, autoregressive, dynamic autoregressive probit models as well as the conventional static probit model. The empirical results highlight several significant recession predictors, notably the government bond yield spread, growth rates of the housing starts, the real money supply and the composite index of leading indicators. Both the in‐sample and out‐of‐sample results suggest that the forecasting performance of the four probit models is mixed. The dynamic and dynamic autoregressive probit models are better in predicting the duration of recessions while the static and autoregressive probit models are better in forecasting the peaks of business cycles. Hence, the advanced dynamic models and the conventional static probit model can complement one another to provide more accurate forecasts for the duration and turning points of business cycles.     

Deregulation and the competitive fringe: Owner-operators in the trucking industry

This paper assesses the direct and indirect effects of regulatory reform in the trucking industry on the employment of owner-operators. We utilize a probit estimation form derived from driver utility functions to estimate the change in the probability that a truck driver is an owner-operator following deregulation.We find that a representative driver with mean characteristics is 155.6 percent more likely to choose employment as an owner-operator in the deregulated environment. Thirty-six percentage points of this increase is due to the indirect effects of deregulation, which operate primarily through changes in wage differentials and unionization. The direct effect of deregulation accounts for a 120% increase in the probability of a driver choosing employment as an owner-operator.We are especially grateful to David Besanko, Ronald Braeutigam, Robert Drago, and John Heywood for insightful comments. For helpful discussions, we thank Marcus Alexis, Aaron Gellman, Leon Moses, Robert Porter, Ian Savage, Mark Shanley, Carol Simon, Paul Wolfson, and Christopher Udry. For their comments on an earlier draft, we thank Thomas Corsi, Curtis Grimm, and Theodore Keeler. We are grateful for information sent to us by Leon Witconis ofOwner Operator Magazine and William A. Coop ofRoad King Magazine. We acknowledge financial support from the National Science Foundation, Grant # SES-9111131 and from the Transportation Center of Northwestern University. We also thank two anonymous referees for their efforts in helping us to improve this paper.     

Employment and the risk of domestic violence: does the breadwinner’s gender matter?

This article studies the effect on the risk of female victimization of the employment status of the woman and her partner. We use individual-level data from the violence against women surveys for Spain, which also provide information on income and a rich set of sociodemographic characteristics. To address the potential endogeneity of the binary employment indicators, we exploit exogenous geographical information on the employment and unemployment rates by gender and age, within a multivariate probit framework. Our estimation results show that male partner employment plays a major role in the risk of physical violence, while female employment only lowers it when her partner is employed too. The lowest risk appears for more egalitarian couples in which both partners are employed.