Reduced Form Mortgage Pricing as an Alternative to Option-Pricing Models

This paper extends the traditional hazard technique of estimating prepayment and default by allowing their baselines to be stochastic processes, rather than known paths of time, as is typically assumed. By working in the reduced form, this method offers an alternative to the empirical valuation of mortgages more easily implemented than the standard structural form approach of options pricing.     

A Simple Option-Pricing Formula

A simple option-pricing formula based on the Weibull distribution is introduced. The simplicity of the algebraic form and ease of implementation are comparable to those of Black-Scholes. Application to S&P 500 options shows that the pricing biases present in the Black-Scholes model are eliminated. Prices produced by the presented model generally lie within or close to the bid-ask spread. For long-term options (over one year), the Weibull formula exhibits significantly higher precision than the Black-Scholes formula does. While a rigorous comparison of all available models is necessary, the simplicity and precision of the proposed model are its main advantages over the existing models.     

交易操纵型盈余管理的经验证据

盈余可以分解为应计部分和现金流量部分.相应地,除了利用无直接现金流量影响的应计部分会计操纵型盈余管理之外,上市公司还可以操纵交易而影响盈余中现金流量部分,但当前国内的大部分研究都集中在会计操纵型盈余管理上.基于中国2000-2006年的A股上市公司样本,本文发现为了避免年度亏损,上市公司通过操纵销售额、斟酌性费用支出和过量生产等真实交易活动,从事现金部分的交易操纵型盈余管理的具体经验证据.     

An Option-Pricing Approach to the Costs of Export Credit Insurance

This article investigates the relationship between a debtor country's external financial indicators and the costs associated with the insurance of export credits to that country. For this purpose a stylized model of export credit insurance (ECI) is developed, the central idea being that ECI is similar to a contingent claim such as a European put option. Thus, tools from option pricing theory were used to calculate the price of ECI, implying that not only the current financial position but also the volatility of the changes in that position determine such costs. The empirical results of a statistical analysis of the premium rates for ECI, applied by a private export credit insurer to seventy-seven developing countries during 1993, provide some support for these hypotheses. In particular, the reserves-over-imports ratio of a debtor country and the volatility of the rates of change of this ratio appear to contribute significantly to the premium rates that apply to that country. Thus, the article provides evidence that option pricing parameters do play role in practical insurance pricing, even if this pricing is not explicitly based on these parameters. Premium rates are set as if an underlying option market operated. Thus, the trade of countries with volatile external financial positions is saddled with higher costs than that of countries with more stable positions.     

房地产投机行为的实证分析

房地产业以其产业关联度强的特点,成为促进国民经济增长的支柱产业,在我国国民经济中占有举足轻重的地位。目前房地产投资中存在着很多投机行为,这为房地产泡沫的产生创造了条件。本文正是在这样的现实背景下,对在新一轮增长中出现的泡沫成分的现状、原因以及所带来的危害进行详细的论述,并提出了相应的治理措施和政策建议。     

Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models

Substantial progress has been made in developing more realistic option pricing models. Empirically, however, it is not known whether and by how much each generalization improves option pricing and hedging. We fill this gap by first deriving an option model that allows volatility, interest rates and jumps to be stochastic. Using S&P 500 options, we examine several alternative models from three perspectives: (1) internal consistency of implied parameters/volatility with relevant time-series data, (2) out-of-sample pricing, and (3) hedging. Overall, incorporating stochastic volatility and jumps is important for pricing and internal consistency. But for hedging, modeling stochastic volatility alone yields the best performance.     

An Empirical Comparison of Convertible Bond Valuation Models

This paper empirically compares three convertible bond valuation models. We use an innovative approach where all model parameters are estimated by the Marquardt algorithm using a subsample of convertible bond prices. The model parameters are then used for out-of-sample forecasts of convertible bond prices. The mean absolute deviation is 1.86% for the Ayache-Forsyth-Vetzal model, 1.94% for the Tsiveriotis-Fernandes model, and 3.73% for the Brennan-Schwartz model. For this and other measures of fit, the Ayache-Forsyth-Vetzal and Tsiveriotis-Fernandes models outperform the Brennan-Schwartz model.     

江西省房地产市场发展与房地产金融风险关系实证研究

金融危机爆发后,世界主要经济体普遍实行了宽松货币政策。在这一背景下,我国房地产市场强势反弹,销量涨幅创历史新高,成交均价一路走高。2009年,江西省房地产市场实现逆势上扬行情,呈现出投资增速逐月回升,供给面积低位增长,销售规模大幅上升,成交均价一路走高的运行特点。在分析江西省房地产市场运行特点的基础上,本文从实证角度考察了房地产市场发展与金融支持之间的关系。实证结果表明,房地产市场的发展、房价的上涨与金融支持之间具有相互促进、互为因果的密切关系。在此基础上进一步分析了房地产市场发展中隐含的金融风险,并提出相应的对策建议。     

Real Flexibility and Financial Structure: An Empirical Analysis

I examine the empirical relation between real flexibility andfinancial structure. I test whether real flexibility increasesdebt capacity by lowering default risk and making assets moremarketable or decreases debt capacity by facilitating risk shiftingand asset substitution. I measure real flexibility as the sensitivityof marginal production and investment decisions to variationsin the economic environment. I find that financial leverageis negatively related to production flexibility but positivelyrelated to investment flexibility. This split in results suggeststhat although asset substitution facilitated by investment flexibilitycan be prevented contractually, risk shifting facilitated byproduction flexibility is intractable.     

Equilibrium Models in Real Estate Research: A Survey

Equilibrium analysis is a valuable tool in real estate investment research. In this survey, I show how equilibrium models have been used to estimate the required risk premium for different classes of real estate, to explain real house prices, and to determine investment rental market adjustment and valuation (as well as to predict future rent, price, and value developments). Equilibrium analysis has also increased our understanding of differences in coupon or rental rates on loans or leases with and without various optionlike features. Because the work on leases has lagged that on loans or mortgages, application of the mortgage research methodology to leases is an especially fertile area for research.     

广东省房地产金融风险实证分析

房地产金融风险特指银行等金融机构为房地产业提供资金的筹集、融通、清算等金融服务活动中,由于各种事先无法预料(即不确定)因素的影响,使金融机构的实际收益与预期收益发生背离,从而蒙受经济损失的可能性。本文通过参考现有房地产金融风险分析的主要因素,从金融机构、房地产开发企业及购房者这三个方面对当前房地产市场的风险状况进行分析,并通过定量的方法估算当前广州房地产市场的投机程度,最后提出相应防范房地产金融风险的建议。     

“实货实付”对我国实体经济影响的实证分析

中国银监会在规范贷款业务的“三个办法一个指引”中,提出了“实贷实付”的贷款使用支付原则。本文重点围绕“实贷实付”对我国实体经济,包括商业银行、借款人和宏观经济等方面的全方位影响进行系统分析,以期对我国银行业实施“实贷实付”的贷款支付方式提供借鉴。     

虚拟经济与实体经济双向效应的实证分析

本文从理论上分析虚拟经济与实体经济的相互影响机制,并论述其中相互适应与背离时的结构突变性。在理论分析基础上,本文构建了滚动回归模型,使用CUSUM检验与CUSUMSQ检验,对中国虚拟经济与实体经济双向效应进行实证分析,得出中国虚拟经济与实体经济在发展过程中会出现结构性突变、虚拟经济与实体经济开始出现背离趋势、虚拟经济与实体经济的相互影响效应不对称的结论。据此,本文提出若干建议,以促进我国实体经济与虚拟经济的协调增长。     

违约损失率模型开发的理论分析和实证研究

本文针对LGD模型开发中的核心问题进行了理论研究和实证分析,根据中国银行业的实际,建立在清收基础上的历史平均LGD是一种较为实用的方法,根据这一方法论,本文运用决策树建立了LGD模型,模型不仅考虑了回收成本的因素,而且考虑了时间因素。本文的实证研究结果表明,不同抵押的债项的LGD与新资本协议确定的参数基本接近,总体上来看,时间因素对于LGD的影响要较回收成本的高。若不考虑回收成本,LGD的估值要低约1%;而忽略时间价值,LGD估值要低约7%。分析LGD的影响因素发现:除债务类型、行业及信用评级等因素对LGD有较大影响外,区域因素的影响不可忽视,建立LGD模型时有必要加以考虑。     

Testing Calendar Effects of International Equity and Real Estate Markets

There are a lot of previous studies on calendar effects. However, most of them use traditional methods like regression. Hui et al. Habitat International 48, 38–45, (2015b) incorporated Shiryaev-Zhou index with logistic regression to study the Halloween and January effects of eight securitized real estate markets, but they fixed the moving-window size to be 130 days. How the change in moving-window size affects the calendar effects cannot be seen. In this study, we also apply the Shiryaev-Zhou index, but we allow the moving-window size to vary. Furthermore, we incorporated Shiryaev-Zhou index with analysis of mean (ANOM) and logistic regression to examine calendar effects of general equity and securitized real estate indices of Hong Kong, Japan, US, UK, France and Germany during the period 1996 – 2014. The results show that our new methods can detect additional channels of significant calendar effects of which normal methods fail to show. Furthermore, the general equity indices show significant Halloween and January effects. However, for the securitized real estate indices, the Halloween and January effects are less significant or even go into reverse in some cases. This study has two main implications. Firstly, investors can formulate a better trading strategy to earn more profits. Secondly, trends and phenomena found in equity markets may not be applicable to real estate markets, so investment rules on equity markets may not work on real estate markets.     

中国对外开放度和通货膨胀率关系的实证检验

本文通过建立误差修正模型分析我国对外开放度不断提高的情况下影响通货膨胀率的因素。计量结果表明:前期通货膨胀率、货币供给量和对外开放度是影响当期通胀率的主要因素。特别是,开放度的提高使得扩张货币的效应会更多的体现在更高的通货膨胀率上。     

Smooth Transition ARCH Models: Estimation and Testing

In this paper, we suggest an extension of the ARCH model, the smooth-transition autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (STARCH) model. STARCH models endogenously allow for time-varying shifts in the parameters of the conditional variance equation. The most general form of the model that we consider is a double smooth-transition model, the STAR-STARCH model, which permits not only the conditional variance, but also the mean, to be a function of a smooth-transition term. The threshold ARCH model, the Markov-ARCH model and the standard ARCH model are special cases of our STARCH model. We also develop Lagrange multiplier tests of the hypothesis that the smooth-transition term in the conditional variance is zero. We apply our STARCH model to excess Treasury bill returns. We find some evidence of a smooth transition in excess returns, but in contrast to previous studies, we find almost no evidence of volatility persistence once we allow for smooth transitions in the conditional variance. Thus, the apparent persistence in the conditional variance reported by many researchers could be a mere statistical artifact. We conduct in-sample tests comparing STARCH models to nested competitors; these suggest that STARCH models hold promise for improved predictions. Finally, we describe further extensions of the STARCH model and suggest issues in finance to which they might profitably be applied.     

Ex Ante Testing of Accounting Standards Using Stochastic Models

Most previous studies of the effects of accounting standards have been conducted on an ex post basis. This paper explores a methodology for studying the implications of accounting standards prior to their introduction. As an illustration, the effects of alternative earnings recognition methods for long-term contracts were examined (SSAP 9). A stochastic model of a representative firm was constructed, where the underlying stochastic process was mean reverting. This model was then used to derive mathematical expressions for the earnings figures produced by different accounting procedures. The performance of these alternative accounting procedures was examined using the general criteria of prediction and closeness to economic income. The accounting procedures required by SSAP 9 emerged relatively well from these tests, and the methodology appears to offer the potential for development.     

Real Interest Rates and Inflation: An Ex-Ante Empirical Analysis

We develop a method of measuring ex-ante real interest rates using prices of index and nominal bonds. Employing this method and newly available data, we directly test the Fisher hypothesis that the real rate of interest is independent of inflation expectations. We find a negative correlation between ex-ante real interest rates and expected inflation. This contradicts the Fisher hypothesis but is consistent with the theories of Mundell and Tobin, Darby and Feldstein, and Stulz. We also find that nominal interest rates include an inflation risk premium that is positively related to a proxy for inflation uncertainty.