Flying under the radar: The real effects of anonymous trading

Using unique data on TSX Attributed Trading and a new proxy of Tobin's Q that accounts for intangible capital (Peters and Taylor, 2017), we investigate the impact of anonymous trading (AT) on managers' ability to use feedback conveyed by stock prices to improve investment efficiency. We show that AT reduces investment efficiency and that both anonymous buyer-initiated and seller-initiated trades have comparable effects. The negative effect of AT on managerial learning from stock prices is significant only for tangible investments and when disagreement among anonymous traders is high. Taken together, our new evidence indicates that AT distorts investment sensitivity to Tobin's Q, plausibly because anonymity attracts additional (uninformed) liquidity trading, which negatively impacts the effectiveness of asset prices in aggregating private information and in revealing fundamentals.     

Capital Gains Tax Rules, Tax-loss Trading, and Turn-of-the-year Returns

Changes in the capital gains tax rules facing individual investors do not affect the incentives for "window dressing" by institutional investors, but they can affect the incentives for year-end tax-induced trading by individual investors. Empirical evidence for the 1963 to 1996 period suggests that when the tax law encouraged taxable investors who accrued losses early in the year to realize their losses before year-end, the correlation between early year losses and turn-of-the-year returns was weaker than when the law did not provide such an early realization incentive. These findings suggest that tax-loss trading contributes to turn-of-the-year return patterns.     

Optimal stock trading with personal taxes: Implications for prices and the abnormal January returns

The tax law confers upon the investor a timing option - to realize capital losses and defer capital gains. With the tax rate on long term gains and losses being about half the short term rate, the law provides a second timing option - to realize losses short term and gains long term, if at all. Our theory and simulation over the 1962–1977 period establish that taxable investors should realize long term gains in high variance stocks and repurchase stock in order to realize potential future losses short term. Tax trading does not explain the small-firm anomaly but predicts a seasonal pattern in trading volume which maps into a seasonal pattern in stock prices, the January anomaly, only if investors are irrational or ignorant of the price seasonality.     

Nasdaq ex‐day behavior: An out‐of‐sample test

We test various explanations of the ex‐dividend day price anomaly using Nasdaq‐listed firms. Similar to NYSE‐listed firms, on average the prices of Nasdaq‐listed firms drop by less than the dividend amount. However, the average Nasdaq price‐drop is substantially smaller than what existing theories would predict and translates to an imputed dividend tax rate that is double the maximum tax rate. We thus find little support for the tax hypothesis. We also find little support for the short‐term trading hypothesis and various other explanations. The significant disconnect we document between Nasdaq dividends and price changes seems to support the “free dividends fallacy.”     

Volume and turn-of-the-year behavior

This paper studies the trading characteristics of listed companies by size, and year-end behavior. There were no transactions on nearly 25% of the days for the smallest decile even at the turn of year which is an active trading period for small companies. As a result of low levels of trading and the regulations governing exchange specialists, transaction prices and quotations of small listed companies may require several days to fully reflect equilibrium price changes. The data confirm the existence of a year-end seasonal pattern in rates of return for small companies and suggest that there may be a seasonal pattern for large companies as well.     

The effect of large block transactions on security prices: A cross-sectional analysis

This paper documents the effects of large (block) transactions on the prices of common stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange. We examine whether mean temporary and permanent price effects associated with large and small transactions differ and whether the price effects vary cross-sectionally according to the size of the block. Alternative definitions of block size are investigated – percentage of the equity traded, block volume in relation to normal trading volume, and dollar value of the block. The results suggest that price effects are predominantly temporary for seller-initiated transactions and permanent for buyer-initiated transactions.     

Capital gains tax,supply‐driven trading and ownership structure: direct evidence of the lock‐in effect

This study investigates the effect of differential capital gains tax rates on investor trading and share prices in a unique market setting that facilitates the resolution of conflicting prior evidence of holding period tax incentives. In particular, we examine whether the concessionary tax treatment of long‐term capital gains increases the supply of shares that qualify for long‐term status, thereby causing downward price pressure. We find evidence of abnormal seller‐initiated trading following the 12‐month anniversary of listing for IPO firms that appreciate in price (‘winners’) and report no such evidence for firms that decline in price (‘losers’). Consistent with the tax concessions being greater for individual than institutional investors, we report that abnormal seller‐initiated trading is mitigated by higher levels of ownership by institutional investors. We also report limited evidence, for winners, of declining share prices upon qualifying for long‐term tax status.     

Cost-based transfer pricing

This paper compares the performance of alternative cost-based transfer pricing methods. We adopt an incomplete contracting framework with asymmetric information at the trading stage. Transfer pricing guides intra-company trade and provides incentives for value-enhancing specific investments. We compare actual-cost transfer prices that include a markup over marginal costs with standard-cost transfer prices that are determined either by the central office ex ante (centralized standard-cost transfer pricing) or by the supplying division at the trading stage (reported standard-cost transfer pricing). For the actual-cost methods, we show that markups based on the joint contribution margin (contribution-margin transfer pricing) dominate purely additive markups (cost-plus transfer pricing). We obtain the following results. (1) Centralized standard-cost transfer pricing dominates the other methods if the central office and the divisions ex ante face low cost uncertainty. (2) The actual-cost methods dominate the other methods if the central office and the divisions ex ante face high cost uncertainty and later, at the trading stage, the buying division receives sufficient cost information. (3) Reported standard-cost transfer pricing dominates the other methods if the central office and the divisions ex ante face high cost uncertainty, and the buyer has insufficient cost information at the trading stage.     

What do taxpayers prefer: Lower taxes or a better year-end position? A research note

What do people prefer, lower taxes or better year-end position? To our knowledge this is the first study that examines which component of individuals’ tax outcome, total tax or year-end position, drives their perceptions regarding their tax outcome as well as the legislation responsible. Based on prior economic and tax literature, especially borrowing from prospect theory and mental accounting, we predict that people are more likely to anchor on their prepayment position rather than on the total taxes in forming their perceptions about their tax position and their views on tax law changes. Based on a sample of 98 U.S. taxpayers we find that our predictions are supported. Specifically, we find that (1) people prefer a better year-end position than lower taxes; and (2) this preference is consistent regardless of whether they are in a refund or tax due position. Implications for public policy and accounting practitioners are also discussed.     

Tax-Induced Trading of Equity Securities: Evidence from the ADR Market

We examine ex‐dividend date trading of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) using a sample of 1,043 dividends over the period 1988 to 1995. ADR dividends are often subject to foreign withholding taxes, creating incentives for certain investors to avoid the distribution. ADRs exhibit negative abnormal ex‐dividend day returns, and their prices behave consistently with their related withholding taxes. Abnormal trading volume for taxable issues exceeds 130 percent and 300 percent of normal volume on the cum‐ and ex‐dates, respectively. Abnormal volume is an increasing function of foreign withholding tax rates and decreasing function of transactions costs. This abnormal ex‐date trading activity is consistent with tax‐motivated trading.     

Predicting Contemporary Volume with Historic Volume at Differential Price Levels: Evidence Supporting the Disposition Effect

This paper presents empirical evidence comparing two models of trading in equities—the well-known tax-loss-selling hypothesis and “the disposition effect.” According to the disposition effect, investors are reluctant to realize losses but are eager to realize gains. This paper distinguishes between the two models with a new methodology that examines the relationship between volume at a given point in time and volume that took place in the past at different stock prices. The evidence overwhelmingly supports the disposition effect not only as a determinant of year-end volume, but also as a determinant of volume levels throughout the year.     

Do cosmetic reporting variations affect market behavior? A laboratory study of the accounting emphasis on unavoidable costs

Eight laboratory market sessions are conducted in which sellers have both opportunity costs (default redemption values from not trading) and unavoidable costs (fixed outlays that must be paid irrespective of trading). The treatment variation is whether sellers’ intermediate accounting reports compare sales revenues to unavoidable costs (four sessions) or default redemption values (four sessions). Findings indicate systematically higher seller asks and buyer bids in the condition where accounting emphasizes unavoidable costs. However, the price and efficiency implications of these higher asks and bids are offset by simultaneous shifts in the relative frequencies of seller-initiated and buyer-initiated trades.     

EVIDENCE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF BID AND ASK PRICES AT THE TURN OF THE YEAR: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SURVIVAL OF STOCK RETURN SEASONALITY

We analyze changes at the turn of the year in the relative and standardized bid-ask spreads of New York Stock Exchange stocks before and after the introduction of personal income taxes in 1917. Previous research indicates the return seasonal arose in 1917. Here, we investigate when spread seasonals arose and whether spread changes are cross-sectionally correlated with the return seasonal. The results indicate that the year-end selling pressure, which began in 1917, is apparent as downward shifts in the stocks' bid and ask prices rather than as widening spreads. Additional evidence suggests the January return seasonal originated as compensation to specialists, as well as to competing traders, for incurring the costs of providing liquidity during the tax-induced seasonal trading pattern.     

Trading activity,dealer concentration and foreign exchange market quality

We study the relation between foreign exchange market quality and both trading activity and dealer concentration by considering two currency pairs with significant differences along both dimensions – the Euro–US dollar and Canadian dollar–US dollar. A variance ratio test reveals over-reaction in currency prices, but that this is smallest when trading activity is high and dealer concentration at its peak. A GARCH model shows that over-reaction declines as trading activity and dealer concentration increase, with the results being stronger for the Euro. Our results confirm that trading activity is an important determinant of market quality, but also point to a significant role for dealer concentration.     

The Relationship Among Market-Making Revenue, Payment for Order Flow, and Trading Costs for Market Orders

We study the division of market-making revenue among dealer, broker, and trader. When Knight Securities, a major Nasdaq dealer, interacts with market orders in actively traded stocks during the fourth quarter of 1996, we estimate that its revenue is $0.057 per share. Knight pays brokers at least $0.025 per share (44% of revenue) for orders. To examine whether brokers appear to share these payments with traders, we compare net trading costs (trade price net of commissions) for traders using brokers routing Knight orders with estimated net trading costs for traders using the only discount broker we can determine did not directly receive market-making revenue. We find that the net trading cost of the broker refusing order-flow payments does not dominate the net trading cost of all brokers selling order flow to Knight. This finding suggests that order-flow payments do not unambiguously harm traders and challenges the conclusions of extant studies using only trade prices to assess market quality.     

Tax Expense Momentum

We investigate the joint hypothesis that (1) tax expense contains information about core profitability that is incremental to reported earnings and (2) that information is reflected in stock prices with a delay. We find that seasonally differenced quarterly tax expense, our proxy for tax expense surprise, is related positively to future returns. This anomaly is separate from previously documented pricing anomalies based on financial and tax variables. Additional investigation reveals that tax expense surprise is related positively to changes in future quarterly earnings and tax expense, and both those future changes are related positively to future returns. While the returns to investing in predictable future earnings changes has been documented before, these results suggest that predicting changes in future tax expense also generates incremental future returns.     

TAX-TIMING OPTIONS AND THE PRICING OF GOVERNMENT BONDS

Internal Revenue Code provisions affect trading strategies for long-term, fixed-payment securities when investment income is subject to taxation and can create tax-timing options of varying nontrivial values for specific bonds at specific times. In this paper, an estimate of the tax bracket of the marginal investor is used to measure the relative impact of changing tax-timing option values on government bond prices. Results support the argument that tax-timing options help to explain an apparent discrepancy between theoretical arguments regarding the tax bracket of the marginal investor and observed market relationships.     

Volume for Winners and Losers: Taxation and Other Motives for Stock Trading

Capital gains taxes create incentives to trade. Our major finding is that turnover is higher for winners (stocks, the prices of which have increased) than for losers, which is not consistent with the tax prediction. However, the turnover in December and January is evidence of tax-motivated trading; there is a relatively high turnover for losers in December and for winners in January. We conclude that taxes influence turnover, but other motives for trading are more important. We were unable to find evidence that changing the length of the holding period required to qualify for long-term capital gains treatment affected turnover.     

Effects of investor tax heterogeneity on stock prices and trading behaviour around the ex-dividend day: the case of Australia

Using a sample of Australian stocks during the 1996–2014 period, this study examines how tax heterogeneity between domestic and foreign investors affects trading behaviour and stock prices around the ex-dividend day. Domestic investors prefer dividends and tend to buy stocks cum-dividend and sell them ex-dividend whereas foreign investors tend to trade in the opposite direction. Abnormal trading turnover increases with tax heterogeneity. Moreover, stocks with a larger domestic investor base are associated with a higher price drop-off ratio on the ex-dividend day and higher market value of franking credits. Overall, our findings support the dynamic dividend clientele hypothesis.     

Capital gains taxes and the market response to public announcements in an indexation-based tax regime

This paper addresses the impact of capital gains taxes on the market price and trading volume response to public announcements in an indexation-based tax regime. Our analysis indicates that indexation makes share prices more responsive to public announcements. Moreover, ‘over responsiveness’ induces negative correlation between short-term price changes around the public announcement and subsequent long-term price movements. This effect is greater when anticipated inflation is higher. Our analysis also indicates that trading volume is increasing in price changes around the public announcement.