POPULATION AGING AND INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS*

We use the neoclassical growth framework to model international capital flows in a world with exogenous demographic change. We compare model implications and actual current account data and find that the model explains a small but significant fraction of capital flows between OECD countries, in particular after 1985.     

INTERNATIONAL TRANSFERS AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

This paper examines the appropriate treatment of international transfers in the national accounts. It argues that the appropriate treatment differs, depending upon the use to be made of the accounts. The treatment recommended in the SNA is appropriate for expenditure behavior analysis, with its emphasis on total disposable income on the one hand, and its allocation between consumption and saving on the other. For economic performance analysis, however, the primary focus of interest is the excess, if any, of aggregate resource use over the GNP, i.e., the extent to which the combined level of consumption and investment is sustained out of own production or is dependent on unrequited capital inflow. It is essential for this purpose that the measure of capital inflow include all international transfers regardless of their economic destination.     

组合、套利和资本市场的均衡特征——对资本市场均衡“异化”现象的一种解释

无套利均衡是新古典主义理论在特定条件下所界定的市场均衡特征。考察卖空限制和借款约束行为对资本市场上的组合和套利行为的影响,并结合市场从非均衡向均衡的调整过程,定性考察不同行为假设之下资本市场均衡特征的变化,可以发现,资本市场均衡和套利机会之间的共存或排斥状态,直接受制于有关市场参与者的初始行为假设。在不同的行为假设之下,市场参与者的组合和套利行为具有不同的特征和不同的影响。     

国际金融形势分析与展望

2002年全球金融板块呈现调整特征:一是国际股票市场全线大跌,但其他市场却有不同程度的“好”行情;二是股票、风险投资等直接融资受挫,银行信贷等间接融资重拾风光;三是美元强货币走跌,欧元等弱货币走强;四是美国等强势金融体遭困,东南亚等弱势金融体逞强。与此相对应,中国的对外金融呈现一派繁荣景象,以开放促改革的局面初步形成。     

POLITICALLY CONTESTABLE RENTS AND TRANSFERS*

A rent or transfer is politically contestable when policy decisions are subject to influence by potential beneficiaries and losers. This paper studies contestablility of rents and transfers when contenders place different valuations on the politically allocated prize. Asymmetric valuation inhibits participation by low-valuation contenders. The model explains the phenomena of small numbers of active participants in contests to exercise political influence and low lobbying and other influence-seeking outlays relative to the value of politically allocated prizes.     

CAPITAL ADEQUACY REQUIREMENTS AND THE FINANCIAL ACCELERATOR CAUSED BY BANK CAPITAL

This paper develops a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous banks, a portion of which may be constrained by capital adequacy requirements and the remainder of which may not, in order to examine what effects the capital requirements and bank capital induce in the macroeconomy. Applying the parameterized expectations algorithm, the model economy shows that binding bank capital constraints induce the financial accelerator, the hump‐shaped dynamic behaviour of output, and ineffectuality of monetary policy, and that all the results are derived from the individual banks’ cross‐sectional asymmetric responses that are consistent with the empirical evidence.     

INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MOBILITY AND TRADE POLITICS: CAPITAL FLOWS, POLITICAL COALITIONS, AND LOBBYING

Conventional wisdom holds that increasing international capital mobility reduces incentives for firms to lobby for trade protection. This paper argues that the effects of increased international capital mobility on the lobbying incentives of firms depend critically upon levels of inter-industry mobility. General-equilibrium analysis reveals that if capital is highly industry-specific, greater international mobility among some types of specific capital may increase lobbying incentives for owners of other specific factors and thereby intensify industry-based rent-seeking in trade politics. Evidence on levels of inward and outward investment in US manufacturing industries between 1982 and 1996, and on industry lobbying activities, indicate that these effects may be quite strong.     

再生资源产业发展的国际经验与启示

通过对一些发达国家和地区再生资源产业发展的现状进行分析可以得出,再生资源产业的发展不仅需要一个良好的外部环境,包括完善的法律法规、有效的经济政策和科学的管理体制等,而且必须建立完备的再生资源产业体系。这给我国的启示是:我国不仅要建立和完善再生资源产业法律法规保障体系,制定再生资源产业的政策激励措施,改革和完善我国再生资源管理体制,而且要用产业化的思维,加强再生资源产业体系建设,做强做大再生资源产业。     

VORACIOUS TRANSFORMATION OF A COMMON NATURAL RESOURCE INTO PRODUCTIVE CAPITAL*

I analyze a power struggle where competing factions have private financial assets and deplete a common stock of natural resources with no private property rights. I obtain a feedback Nash equilibrium to the dynamic common‐pool problem and obtain political variants of the Hotelling depletion rule and the Hartwick saving rule. Resource prices and depletion occur too fast, so substitution away from resources to capital occurs too fast and the saving rate is too high. The power struggle boosts output, but depresses sustainable consumption. Genuine saving is nevertheless zero in a fractionalized society. World Bank estimates may be too optimistic.     

A TALE OF TWO REVOLUTIONS: INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS 1789–1819 *

One of the phenomena that accompanied the advance of the French Revolution and its armies throughout the European Continent in the 1790s was the flight of capital. Merchants and guild artisans, as well as aristocrats, had to turn to merchant bankers and use the existing international capital markets to remove the liquid part of their property beyond the reach of Revolutionary arms. There is good reason to believe that they were successful to a much greater degree than previously suspected, largely because the international capital markets of the time were larger and better organized than previously thought. Moreover, these capital movements from the Continent to Britain explain succinctly why the British Industrial Revolution took place during this period despite the large pressures of war expenditures and British government subsidies to Continental allies taking place at the same time. The repatriation of capital to the Continent from England after peace also helps explain the depression of British industry and incomes from 1815 through the financial crisis of 1825, although the role of British speculators was important too.     

FINANCIAL CRISES AND INTERNATIONAL STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY TRANSMISSION

This paper examines the interplay between stock market returns and their volatility, focusing on the Asian and global financial crises of 1997–98 and 2008–09 for Australia, Singapore, the UK, and the US. We use a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model and weekly data (January 1992–June 2009). Based on the results obtained from the mean return equations, we could not find any significant impact on returns arising from the Asian crisis and more recent global financial crises across these four markets. However, both crises significantly increased the stock return volatilities across all of the four markets. Not surprisingly, it is also found that the US stock market is the most crucial market impacting on the volatilities of smaller economies such as Australia. Our results provide evidence of own and cross ARCH and GARCH effects among all four markets, suggesting the existence of significant volatility and cross volatility spillovers across all four markets. A high degree of time‐varying co‐volatility among these markets indicates that investors will be highly unlikely to benefit from diversifying their financial portfolio by acquiring stocks within these four countries only.     

资本市场的发展与现代金融体系的形成

资本市场是现代金融体系中最具有活力的要素,是储蓄转化为投资的有效途径。资本市场通过市场化的机制引导资本在产业间的合理流动,加速着产业结构的调整和升级。资本市场上资产交易量的迅速增加,意味着其在资源配置中的作用日益增强。资本市场的不断成长,正在从根本上推动金融体系的演进和变革。     

收入差距与公共财政政策:人力资本投资差异的形成与演变

人力资本投资的需求受到经济个体的时间偏好、生产能力与预期收益率等因素的影响。同时,收入差距和公共财政政策都会影响到人力资本投资供给曲线的变动。这造成了不同个体之间在人力资本投资上的差异,产生了他们之间的人力资本差距和收入差距。我国现行的公共财政政策已经成为收入差距快速增长的重要原因。