Rights offering announcements and the efficiency of the Kuwaiti market

This study tested the semi-strong form of the EMH in the Kuwait Stock Exchange. This test is conducted by examining the behaviour of stock prices around the date of rights offering announcements. Based on a sample of 69 rights offerings over the period 2004–2013, we find that prices incorporate new information within an average of 4 days. We take this observation as evidence that the Kuwaiti market is semi-strong efficient.     

Rational Expectations and Price Determination in the US Oats Market

This paper develops a simultaneous rational expectations model of the US oats market Consistent estimates of the structural parameters are obtained by the instrumental variables method and 15 of 16 parameter estimates are significant at the 5 per cent level Estimated elasticities suggest that hedged stocks are more responsive to price changes than unhedged stocks, and that consumption demand for oats is more responsive to income changes than to changes in price. Post-sample forecasts of the spot price derived from this model are employed to test the semi-strong form efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), although the futures price outperforms the model as a predictor of the spot price. Hence the EMH cannot be rejected     

Beyond the efficient markets hypothesis: Towards a new paradigm

To go beyond the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) we suppose that the stock market can be in one of three states: (1) a fundamental state, where share prices are determined largely as in the EMH; (2) a bubble or bull market state, where share prices are above their fundamental levels but are expected to continue to rise further, and (3) a bear market state, where shares are held exclusively by irrational agents and rational agents cannot exploit the overvaluation because of short-selling constraints. Also, heterogeneous rational expectations may help explain some features of stock market behaviour.     

In defense of fundamental analysis: A critique of the efficient market hypothesis

Conclusion The main shortcomings of the EMH are similar to those of the long-run competitive theories that focus exclusively on equilibrium outcomes while ignoring the entrepreneurial activity that generates those outcomes. The EMH gives the impression that there is a difference between investing in the stock market and investing in a business. However, the stock market doesn't have alife of its own. The success or failure of investment in stocks depends ultimately on the same factors that determine success or failure of any business. Statistical tests that supposedly validate the EMH framework are based on a flawed method and a failure to understand that the main cause behind the instability in financial markets is the monetary policies of the central bank. Frank Shostak is chief economist at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming Future, Sydney, Australia. The views expressed herein are his own and do not necessarily represent those of Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming Futures. The author wishes to express his gratitude to the very helpful comments of two anonymous referees.     

限价委托执行时间分布与市场有效性检验

布朗运动可以看成连续时间的随机游动,从连续交易的角度看,交易价格服从布朗运动的假设等价于市场有效假设.在将股票价格描述为几何布朗运动的基础上,本文从布朗运动首达时的分布推导出限价委托执行等待时间的分布.对实际数据计算出的等待时间样本是否服从布朗运动假设下的等待时间分布进行检验,以此对市场有效性作出判断.检验采用日内交易高频数据,探讨市场微观结构对价格发现的作用.本文采用上海50指数样本股进行实证,得出的结论不支持市场有效性假设.     

Re-examining the Turkish stock market efficiency: Evidence from nonlinear unit root tests

This paper re-examines the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in the Turkish stock market by utilizing the recent developments in nonlinear unit root tests. To this end, we first employ the linearity test developed by Harvey et al. (2008) and then carry out the nonlinear ESTAR unit root test recently developed by Kruse (2011). The results show that Borsa Istanbul stock price index series have nonlinear behavior and follow the random walk (non-stationary) process, supporting the EMH in Turkish stock market which has weak-form efficiency.     

分形市场假说在沪深股票市场中的实证研究

首先介绍并分析了有效市场假说的不足，指出不切实际的简化和线性思维范式是导致有效市场假说倍受批评的原因。其次介绍分形市场假说，很好地解决了有效市场假说暴露出的问题，使得对市场的描述更切合实际。最后在沪探股票市场中对分形市场假说进行实证检验，得出沪深两市股指收益率具有时间尺度不变性和大于0.5的Hurst指数，分别为0.69和0.64。表明分形市场假说在两地股市中成立。     

The Relationship Between Economic Factors and Equity Markets in Central Europe

This paper investigates the possibility that newly-emerging equity markets in Central Europe exhibit semi-strong form efficiency such that no relationship exists between lagged values of changes in economic variables and changes in equity prices. We find that while there are connections between the real economy and equity market returns in Poland and Hungary, these links occur with lags, suggesting the possibility of profitable trading strategies based on public information and rejecting semi-strong efficiency. For the Czech Republic the situation is more complex. In recent periods, little connection exists between lagged economic variables and equity market returns. Although this finding might be viewed as consistent with semi-strong efficiency, in fact there is also little connection between current economic values and stock prices in the Czech Republic. Thus, instead of processing information efficiently, the Czech market appears to be entirely divorced from the real world. It is suggested that the difference in the current status of these markets may be due to the different methods by which they were created.     

A comparison between qualitative and quantitative histories: the example of the efficient market hypothesis

ABSTRACT

This paper uses the example of the history of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and citation analysis in order to investigate some differences between qualitative history and a quantitative history. The history of the EMH provides a telling example of the way quantitative analyses can supply different perspectives on the qualitative history of this hypothesis or complement it. For instance, since the EMH was proposed, several criticisms emerged. In addition, the definition and the scope of this hypothesis have been modified several times. Although the qualitative history of the EMH refers to these criticisms and these alternative definitions and scopes, qualitative tools cannot provide a clear measure of the impact of these criticisms and these modifications among economists. By studying the dissemination of the EMH, its major criticisms, and the answers economists provided, citation analysis sheds a different light on the history of the EMH.     

管理者交易的市场择时能力对市场有效性的影响

管理者卖出和买入公告对股票市场具有一定的影响,以管理者卖出交易和买入交易为公告样本进行实证分析,检验公告当日及给定事件期超额收益的显著性.结果显示:卖出公告样本反对半强式有效假说,管理人能够“卖高”,获得超额收益；而买入公告样本支持半强式有效假说,管理者不能够“买低”,在公告日和事件期都不能获得超额收益.     

Testing exchange rate efficiency: the case of euro–dollar

This paper tests the semi‐strong efficiency of the euro–dollar currency market by introducing a simple heuristic test, based on the ‘general‐to‐specific’ methodology and meant to include as two specific sub‐cases the ‘efficient market hypothesis’ (EMH) in the currency market as well as alternative theories implying a time dependent process of propagation of information. According to the results of our nested test, the ‘efficient market hypothesis’ in the euro–dollar currency market is rejected.     

市场选择假说最新研究述评

金融市场中出现的大量“异常现象”,使得有效市场假说受到严重的挑战。而对于“非理性的交易者能否生存”问题的回答,则直接涉及有效市场假说的核心,对整个标准金融理论有重要影响。正因如此,自Alchian和Friedman提出“市场选择假说”以来,对该问题的争论就从未停止过。本文通过对“市场选择假说”研究进行较系统地综述,以期为中国金融市场的研究提供一些借鉴,从而使相关研究更贴近于实际金融市场。     

The labour income share and the relative price of investment in the US: an empirical investigation

Several studies argue that the recent decline in the secular trend of the labour income share is mostly driven by capital-embodied technological progress which is typically identified with trend reductions in the relative price of investment. In this paper, I use data from the United States to assess the nature of the relationship between trends in the labour share and the relative price of investment. Results from co-integration tests reveal that the share and the relative price of investment are most likely not co-integrated. However, co-variation tests indicate that both time series share a common stochastic component, and additional tests of structural breaks point at the presence of a common change in the mean or trend of both series. These results suggest that capital-embodied or investment-specific technological progress may have played an important role in the decline of the secular trend of the labour share.     

中国出口贸易利益测算与行业差异分析——基于出口收入指数的方法

本文以出口收入指数方法为基础构建出口收入份额指标,计算和分析了2001-2009年期间中国出口的相对贸易利益及其分行业状况。中国在世界平均出口收入指数中的相对份额虽然呈现出一定的上升趋势,但主要是在低技术行业依靠出口规模而获取贸易利益,在高技术行业中国获得的市场份额和贸易利益都很少。面板数据计量检验显示,中国制造业各行业出口收入份额与技术投入、资本和劳动要素投入比例呈现较弱的正相关关系,与外资进入以及参与产品内分工的程度呈现较显著的正相关关系。中国欲摆脱以代工方式加入全球价值链而赚取低廉代工费的现实处境,须致力于物质资本和人力资本积累,提高自主创新能力,从而形成以技术为主导的竞争优势。     

Market efficiency and the Euro: the case of the Athens stock exchange

The behaviour of an emerging market, the Athens Stock Exchange, after the introduction of the euro is investigated. The latter would make its returns easier to compare; reduce uncertainty; eliminate the exchange rate risk and as a result we expect the new currency to strengthen the argument, in favour of the EMH. The General ASE Composite Index and the FTSE/ASE 20, which consists of “high capitalisation” companies, are used. Five statistical tests are employed to test the residuals of the random walk model: the BDS, McLeod-Li, Engle LM, Tsay and Bicovariance test. Bootstrap and asymptotic values of these tests are estimated. Alternative models from the GARCH family (GARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH) are also presented in order to investigate the behaviour of the series. Lastly, linear, asymmetric and non-linear error correction models are estimated and compared. The preferred model (TGARCH) suggests that leverage effects are present and the news impact curve is asymmetric.     

Military expenditure and investment in OECD countries, 1954–1973

This paper, using data for 14 large OECD countries between 1954 and 1973, tests the hypothesis that reduced investment has been a major opportunity cost of military expenditure in the postwar period. The share of investment in potential output is made a function of the share of military expenditure, growth rate, and demand pressure. Whether the data are treated as a set of cross sections, time series, or pooled, and under various assumptions about dynamic and error covariance structure, the results indicate a clear negative effect of military expenditure on investment, with a coefficient on military expenditure not significantly different from ?1.     

State-contingent rent reduction and tenancy contract choice

This study introduces a fixed-rent contract with a state-contingent rent reduction widely adopted in Japan in the early 20th century, which a fixed-rent was temporary reduced in case of poor harvest. The economic implications of this contract are analyzed with a principal-agent model. It is shown that if the tenant is not too risk averse and/or the variability of the yield is not too high, then this contract is preferable for the landlord to a fixed-rent contract or a share tenancy. Preliminary tests on the risk-sharing implication of a share contract are also provided using the historical data for Japan and Korea.     

Forecast Errors and Efficiency in the US Electricity Futures Market

In March 1996 the US introduced electricity futures contracts which provided for delivery at the California/Oregon border (COB) and Palo Verde switchyard. These were followed in July 1998 by contracts which provided for delivery of electrical energy into the Cinergy and Entergy systems, and in March 1999 by a contract for the Pennsylvania/New Jersey/Maryland (PJM) area. This paper employs the forecast error approach to study the informational efficiency of these markets (the model prediction and event studies approaches are not feasible). COB and Palo Verde spot and futures prices are stationary, while Cinergy spot and futures prices are I(1) and cointegrated (Entergy and PJM data were not utilised due to insufficient observations). All forecast errors, therefore, are stationary. Estimation is by instrumental variables in the presence of a lagged dependent variable and overlapping observations. For the period 1996 (04) to 1999 (12), with COB and Palo Verde data, the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) is rejected. This outcome is confirmed by cointegration of the COB and Palo Verde futures prices. A significant M-GARCH term in the forecast error relationship for both contracts supports the view that a time-varying risk premium was present. A significant negative relationship between forecast errors and volume for the COB contract suggests that agents were still learning the true model driving this market, and that Stein's 'Bayesian error' was non-zero.
For the period 1998 (07) to 1999 (12), with COB, Palo Verde and Cinergy data, the EMH cannot be rejected. Finally, an attempt is made to relate this study to the recent electricity crisis in California.     

Testing the efficiency of the Athens Stock Exchange: Some results from the banking sector

In this study we test the efficient market hypothesis in the Athens Stock Exchange for a number of selected stocks from the banking sector. We distinguish between a “weak” and “semistrong” version of the hypothesis depending on the agents' information sets. For the “weak” version we apply a recently developed test by Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman (1987) to test for the presence of nonlinear structure in the residuals of rates of return regressions of these stocks. To test the “semistrong” form of the efficiency hypothesis we carry out tests of cointegration following the methodology of Granger and Engle (1987). We find no noticeable presence of nonlinearties in the standardized residuals for these series. Also we find no evidence of cointegration and hence no Granger causality between the different stocks. Our findings support the “weak” and “semi-strong” versions of the efficient market hypothesis.     

Efficiency in Currency Futures Markets SURE vs. FIML Estimates

The major aim of this paper is to determine the appropriate estimation technique for testing the market efficiency hypothesis. The weak and semi-strong forms of the market efficiency hypothesis have been tested for five actively traded futures currency markets for the period 1974-86. The test has been carried out under the assumption of a constant risk premium.