Minimum Wage Policy and Poverty in the United States

Recent studies have found that increasing the minimum wage is a useful antipoverty tool. In this analysis, we examine the influence of minimum wages and other important variables on US family poverty rates using state data over the years 1984-98 by estimating both a fixed effect and random coefficients regression model. Taking into account labor market influences, demographic factors, and differences in poverty rates across states, we find that expanding the minimum wage coverage and increasing labor force participation both have larger effects on poverty rates as compared to equivalent changes in the level of the minimum wage. It is further implied from the empirical results that the most effective means of lifting families out of poverty are policies that are directed toward increasing minimum wage coverage, encouraging increased labor force participation, raising the minimum wage, and subsidizing higher education, respectively.     

Openness and Poverty in the Postwar United States

Recent trade theory suggests that freer trade can be the primary cause of the observed rise of poverty in the United States. The short-run dynamic relationships between openness and poverty are examined using the concept of Granger causality. That the ultimate source of rising poverty since 1973 is trade liberalization of the US economy cannot be rejected. The result is convincing when two subsamples (pre- and post-1973) are reestimated. These findings are at odds with the conventional model in which freer trade raises productivity and hence reduces the poverty rate, but appear consistent with some models in which openness raises poverty.     

The Dynamics of Tariff Retaliation Between the United States and Canada: Theory and Evidence

This paper presents theory and empirical evidence showing a retaliatory pattern in US–Canadian tariff interactions in the period 1868–1970, whereby the changes in the tariff level of each country are Granger-caused by the other. In the long run, the USA maintains the tariff changes that it initiates while the Canadian policy tends to back away from changes that it initiates. Furthermore, Canadian policy demonstrates a permanent change following US innovations, while in the long run the US tariff returns to its own internal equilibrium unaffected by innovations in the Canadian tariff.     

Business Cycles: Theory, Evidence and Policy Implications

This paper looks at recent advances in the study of aggregate fluctuations. The emphasis is on three prominent areas of research: the stochastic growth model, economies which exhibit macroeconomic complementarities and models that emphasize heterogeneity. Each section of the paper outlines the theory, examines relevant empirical evidence and then discusses some policy implications of the analysis.     

Long-Period Trade Elasticities for Canada, Japan, and the United States

Most analyses of imports use brief, postwar samples and offer a large range of elasticity estimates suggesting that the role of income and prices in determining imports is not known with any precision. This paper offers an analysis of that role using data since 1890 for Canada, Japan, and the United States. The elasticities of the log–linear model are estimated and found to be inconsistent with the view that income and prices affect imports. Optimization models are considered and found to predict secular changes in income and price elasticities and explain the dispersion of estimates of the literature.     

中国可持续增长的机制:证据、理论和政策

本报告在企业生产函数中引入政府支持系数,该系数是通过一个政府福利模型而得。在突破贫困陷阱阶段,政府与企业目标高度一致,政府集中一切资源支持企业发展,政府支持系数大,企业享受了低税、低资源价格等有利因素;在进入中等收入阶段,随着城市化快速提高,政府转向福利支出目标,福利刚性不断加大,政企目标冲突,政府支持系数下降甚至出现惩罚,政企在新的发展阶段都面临转型,转型失败可能会落入"中等收入陷阱"。确定中国未来的新增长机制,政府转型是关键,限制政府利益刚性,明确政府福利支出与企业发展能力相匹配,而不是靠债务融资推动福利和增长,更多地让市场发挥激励创新和优化配置资源的功能,以促进经济的可持续增长。     

Institutionalism and New Trade Theory: Rethinking Comparative Advantage and Trade Policy

Gomory and Baumol (2000), and Samuelson (2004) have raised concerns about international trade’s future impact on U.S. national income. The focus is how globalization may affect the size and distribution across countries of gains from trade. Though their analysis is developed using a pure trade theoretical framework, it has strands in common with institutionalist thinking. Their findings spotlight the need for a new U.S. trade policy agenda aimed at maximizing the U.S. share of gains from trade, and complementing conventional Keynesian open economy macroeconomic analysis.     

Energy prices, energy conservation, and economic growth: Evidence from the postwar United States

The effects of energy prices and energy conservation on economic growth have been examined empirically for the postwar U.S. economy. A vector autoregressive model includes real GDP, real capital, labor, real energy prices, and the Divisia energy index. A key feature of our finding is that some damaging effects of energy conservation on the macroeconomy are statistically insignificant in the short run, and the insignificant short-run effects are quickly enervated over time. Alternative measures of energy use also suggest that energy conservation has no significant impact on real output growth. The findings are generally consistent with the neoclassical position that real economic growth of the United States is neutral with respect to changes in energy use. One exception is the case that energy prices are omitted from the model.     

中国农村扶贫的政策效应分析——基于能力贫困理论的考察

中国农村制度化扶贫是一种开发式扶贫战略,其政策效应日益削弱:农村绝对贫困人口更为分散;相当数量的真正贫困人口没有能力从扶贫项目中受益;现行的扶贫策略也难以有效针对疾病、教育等致贫风险。现阶段中国扶贫政策在收入救助的同时,更应该注重提高贫困风险人群应对贫困风险的能力。     

Pollution Abatement and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Germany,Japan, the Netherlands,and the United States

The passage of environmental legislation was accompanied by concerns about its potential detrimental effect on productivity. We assume inputs can be assigned to either abatement activities or good output production. This allows us to specify regulated and unregulated production frontiers to determine the association between pollution abatement and productivity growth. We then employ our “assigned input” model to determine the association between productivity and abatement activities for manufacturing industries in Germany, Japan, the Netherlands and the United States.     

美国的贸易逆差

一、美国贸易逆差的特点１．贸易逆差与其经济波动紧密相关。大体上是经济增长快,经济表现强劲的年份,贸易逆差就大;而经济增长缓慢,甚至负增长的年份,贸易逆差就小。１９９９年美国贸易逆差达到２６５０亿美元,较１９９１年增加了２３４３亿美元（１９９１年美国贸易逆差为３０７亿美元）,而在此期间,美国经济持续增长,GDP增长率由１９９１年的３．２％增至１９９９年的５．６％。２．贸易逆差占GDP的比重逐渐增大。由于美国的经济总量大,虽然贸易逆差的绝对额在有的年份很大,但是相对于国内生产总值来说还是较小,绝大多数…     

中美技术贸易述评

数十年来中美技术贸易的发展总体趋势是在矛盾中前进。两国之间技术贸易的三大特点是美国对华技术贸易优势巨大、美国在我国技术进口对象国中稳居前列、美国对华技术出口比重与其技术大国的地位不相称，并对其成因进行分析。本文提出了我国为推动中美技术贸易应采取的一些策略。     

Influences on software piracy: Evidence from the various United States

Examining socio-economic influences on software piracy in the United States, we find a negative relationship between software piracy and income, tax burdens, and economic freedom. A 1% increase in per-capita income correlates with a 0.25% reduction in piracy.     

Industrial Policy As an Alternative to Trade Policy: Helping By Hurting*

Abstract Industrial policies that are essentially nonlinear taxes or subsidies on adjustment costs of domestic firms affect those firms' market power in oligopolistic international markets. These adjustment policies often can achieve a strategic purpose at lower cost to the government than linear trade or investment subsidies and are less likely to result in retaliation by other governments. Many governments, however, use adjustment policies for nonstrategic purposes without recognizing that they are reducing their firms' market power by subsidizing adjustment costs rather than taxing them.