展望亚太经济 中印能否控制过热

【美国之音4月14日】国际货币基金组织4月13日推出“亚太地区经济展望”报告。报告指出，中国和印度仍然会带动这个地区在今明两年保持强劲增长，但是美国经济疲软导致国际市场需求下降以及中国和印度能否有效控制经济过热给亚洲经济前景投下不确定因素。     

新经济与世界经济发展的新方向

过去25年，世界经济增长放缓，如美国、欧洲、日本等国家和地区都有这一特征，以上国家经济增长速度的放缓，必然影响到其它国家，对亚洲其它国家而言，必须采取有效措施，发展新经济，带动其经济的全面进步。     

当前亚洲国家经济发展战略调整:背景、方向与影响北大核心CSSCISSCI

2008年全球金融危机的发生在很大程度上改变了亚洲国家经济发展的外部环境,使得亚洲国家不得不重新考虑未来一定时期内经济发展的路径等诸方面,但是此轮经济发展战略调整的主要动因仍缘自亚洲国家自身经济发展的结果。根据经济发展战略设计思路和增长动力部门变化等标准,可以大致将亚洲国家经济发展战略调整方向划分为三类:转型版、升级版和延续版。此次亚洲国家战略调整的"集体行动"将有可能对地区经济格局以及对中国产生多方面的影响。     

中国作为经济大国的崛起及其对亚洲的影响

中国作为经济大国的崛起对其它亚洲国家(地区)经济的影响很大.在其它亚洲国家(地区)看来,中国一方面是一个有潜力的市场和对外直接投资的理想场所,另一方面也是出口市场中的竞争对手.一般来说,贸易结构同中国互补的高收入国家(地区)可能会从中获益,而同中国竞争的低收入国家(地区)则会受到损失.     

经济观点

亚洲多数国家和地区正不断降低对美国、日本和欧洲的依赖程度,经济免疫力增强。德国《经济周刊》新近刊登文章,认为亚洲国家经济免疫力的增强主要是通过扩大内部需求和相互间增加贸易往来两个途径。 除日本以外,亚洲多数国家都逃脱了世界经济不景气的打击。尽管出现全球性经济危机,亚洲经济还是保持了高速增长。中国、印度、韩国、马来西亚、泰国和新加坡,甚至包括菲律宾和印度尼西亚,2002年的国内生产总值估计最高可获得7％的增长率。 大多数亚洲国家的经济向来依     

经济高速增长的挑战

众所周知,近年来印度和中国等发展中国家的经济正在迅猛增长。企业家开办小企业,小企业成长为大公司,更多的人获得更好的工作,许多公司发现自己在全球经济中起着非常重要的作用。听起来似乎各方都在享受高增长带来的福利。     

今年亚洲部分国家（地区）的经济增长预测

今年亚洲部分国家（地区）的经济增长预测根据日本亚洲经济研究所对台湾、香港、韩国、新加坡，印尼，泰国、马来西亚及菲律宾等８个国家和地区１９９５年的经济发展预测指出，因受到中国抑制通货膨胀政策、美国１９９５年经济增长减缓及日元升值态势不明等因素影响，１９...     

新世纪的东北亚国际区域经济合作

近年来,世界经济增长缓慢,西方发达国家在整体上进行调整,扩大基础。而在亚洲,特别是以中国为代表的东亚地区的部分国家在向市场经济转轨的过程中有较高的增长速度。事实表明这样一个趋势:即世界经济正在进行着一场战后以来的重大转变。而这次转变中,东亚地区,特别是中国将成为世界经济增长的中心。因此,东亚地区已成为人们普遍关注的经济快速增长地区和未来的国际经济的重要市场。一些经济学家根据对亚洲某些国家经济发展的研究、探讨及预测,提出了亚洲未来经济发展的三巨头,即中国、印度和印度尼西亚,并预测这三个国家到2010年的国民生产总值将占世界的26.4％,世界银行预测其增长速度将在6％以上,其购买力将成为继美国、日本、德国之后的经济大国。综合上述推论得出的结论是21世纪将是亚洲的世纪。面对亚洲地区经济的崛起西方国家也在分别调整自己国家的对外经济政策,并且把对外政策的重点放在亚洲。例如:美国越来越重视环太平洋地区的经济发展;西欧国家也已积极地关注亚洲的经济发展,俄罗斯为开通其与太平洋地区的经济协作而加速开发西伯利亚和远东地区。亚洲地区成为世界经济的重地;同时它又是区域经济合作的重要地区。     

中印自由贸易区的建立对中国及世界经济影响研究

本文运用GTAP模型和等递归动态法,针对中国与印度自由贸易区的构建,以及在此基础上可能形成的其他不同区域合作方案,对中国的贸易规模、贸易结构、GDP、福利水平和生产格局等将产生的经济影响进行了一般均衡模拟分析。研究表明:在不同区域合作方案下,中国福利损益有差异;中国的贸易规模及除服务业之外的各产业的进出口增长都比较显著;服务业是中国参与东亚区域经济合作的薄弱产业;"10+6"方案对中国最不利,而中国-印度自由贸易区和中国-印度-澳大利亚自由贸易区方案对中国较为有利。中国的优势方案是争取在印度、澳大利亚之间建立自由贸易区,而避免东盟、日本等的加入。     

投资亚洲微妙之举

大多数亚洲国家属于出口导向型经济。在全球经济发展放缓的同时，中国也在采取宏观调控措施来抑制其经济过热，所以，我们有必要来分析中国及全球经济减速将会给亚洲国家带来哪些影响。     

中印两国在亚太经济发展中作用的共性研究

本文认为.中国和印度在亚太地区经济发展中的作用既有共性也有差异性。本文对两国作用的共性作一探析。研究显示,两国作用的共性表现为中印在亚太经济发展中均具有大国意识、作用意识和理念、相同的作用方式和领域,这表明对21世纪初的亚太经济的认知与把握,还需要对中印两国在亚太经济发展中作用问题展开研究。     

East and South Asia: Managing Difficult Bilateral Relations and Regional Integration Globally

This paper analyzes the economic integration of the East and South Asian economies in the global economy. East Asian economies are shown to be achieving much more of their potential trade than South Asian economies, both in terms of intra‐regional trade and in trade with the rest of the world. Examination of the China–Japan, India–Pakistan and Taiwan–mainland China bilateral relationships shows that integration of these economies into the global economy has allowed economic relations to dominate and constrain difficult bilateral political relations in East Asia while in South Asia adverse political relations have hampered development of bilateral economic relationships.     

西藏与印度设立边境自由贸易区效应分析

我国西藏自治区与印度相邻.目前,我国正在积极做亚东口岸全方位开放的准备工作,有关专家也在分析论证中印扩大经贸合作的潜在互补性.根据优化资源配置与提高双方居民福利的原则,西藏与印度不仅具备设应边境自由贸易区的区位与经济条件,国际政治与经济的环境趋势,也使双方同时具备了设立自由贸易区的可能.     

Understanding India's Regional Initiatives with East and Southeast Asia

In recent years, India has concluded several bilateral and regional agreements with countries in East and Southeast Asia. This paper discusses four motivating factors underlying these initiatives: (i) the recognition by other Asian countries of India's growing importance as an investment and export market, as a supplier of manpower, and as a counterbalance to China's growing regional dominance; (ii) India's recognition of Asia's growing importance in the world economy; (iii) India's desire to prevent its marginalisation and to create a sphere of political and economic influence within East and Southeast Asia; and (iv) geo-political considerations such as securing energy interests, and addressing transport and connectivity concerns and long-term political and sub-regional stability objectives. India's approach to these integration efforts has been largely defensive and its future integration initiatives are likely to be more geo-political and strategic in nature.     

中印崛起呼唤大国发展模式创新

中印两国经济的崛起,选择的是两条不同的道路。中国逐步确立了自己作为"世界工厂"的地位,印度则向着"世界办公室"的目标迈进。这两种发展模式虽成就了中印经济过去二十多年的辉煌,但也都存在着能否持续的问题。中国的"世界工厂"发展模式,越来越受到资源与环境的约束;印度的"世界办公室"发展模式,在没有就业增长的支撑下,也难以为继。目前中印经济发展模式所遇到的难题,其根源在于超大型的国家规模。中印崛起呼唤发展中大国创新发展模式。探索中印可持续的发展道路是全球性和时代性课题。     

A comprehensive economic partnership between India and Japan: Impact,prospects and challenges

This paper examines the benefits and challenges of the 2011 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Japan, specifically the ways to maximize gains from their complementary economies, trade and FDI relations. It also measures the partnership's economy-wide impact empirically, and its role in regional and global integration. An analysis of the trade intensity indices shows that the bilateral trade flow is small considering the other country's importance in world trade, suggesting the existence of great potential for improving trade relations. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the economy wide impact of the CEPA suggests that tariff reductions will create a marginal increase in output growth for both India and Japan as compared to the business as usual scenario. In terms of the effect on exports, India's exports to Japan would increase more than those of Japan to India while positive net welfare gains are expected for both countries as a result of trade liberalization. This is in contrast to the study by Ahmed (2010), which finds welfare gains only for Japan, not for India. Furthermore, one of the striking results of the paper is that Japan will not reduce its heavy reliance on the Chinese market, though India will. In general, India, compared to Japan, will gain more, if CEPA materializes by 2020. Japan too will have welfare gains in spite of opening up the agriculture sector with 100% tariff reduction by 2020. Both countries need to accelerate structural reforms to remove the border barriers in addition to reducing tariffs, in order to reap maximum benefit of their economic partnership.     

人力资本视角下的印度人才外流

自20世纪60年代以来,人才外流一直是印度经济社会发展中的一个顽疾。在从工业经济向知识经济跨越的过程中,印度政府采取了一系列吸引人才回流、增加人才创业机会的措施,使人才外流的比率有所降低,但人力资本增值所需的物质资本和制度空间依然缺位,产业结构失衡的内在矛盾依然深刻,以致人才外流的规模继续扩大。本文拟从人力资本的视角探讨印度的人才外流问题。     

Adjustment of Global Imbalances and Its Impact on China＇s Economy

I. Introduction Global imbalances have aroused increasingly greater attention worldwide. The global current account deficits are mainly concentrated in the USA and the US current account deficit is rapidly expanding, whereas the counterpart surpluses are more and more concentrated in the East Asian economies,1 especially China and other East Asian economies other than China and Japan (including the four newly industrialized economies, Indonesia, Malaysia,72 Jianhuai Shi / 71 – 85, Vol.…     

Japan and the great divergence, 730–1874

Despite being the first Asian economy to achieve modern economic growth, Japan has received relatively little attention in the Great Divergence debate. New estimates suggest that although the level of GDP per capita remained below the level of northwest Europe throughout the period 730–1874, Japan experienced positive trend growth before 1868, in contrast to the negative trend growth experienced in China and India, leading to a Little Divergence within Asia. However, growth in Japan remained slower than in northwest Europe so that Japan continued to fall behind until after the institutional reforms of the early Meiji period. The Great Divergence thus occurred as the most dynamic part of Asia fell behind the most dynamic part of Europe.     

The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030

Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies) has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of continuing economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios, including slower economic growth rates in the ‘North’, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and prospective trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the ‘North’ and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy.