Technology and structures: Man and machine

The increasing size of the telecommunications machine poses a threat to its flexibility and adaptive capacity. The author examines this problem from the point of view of telecommunication organizations, taking account of the degree of government regulation and methods of raising capital. He offers a critical view of the unwieldiness and inertia in the telecommunication systems.     

The Role of Trustworthiness in Maintaining Employee Commitment During Restructuring in China

The influence of competency- and affect-based attributions of managerial trustworthiness on employee commitment during restructuring is investigated within a large telecommunications firm in greater China. It was found that competency-based attributions are positively related to employees' value commitment, whereas affect-based attributions are positively related to employees' continuance commitment (i.e., the propensity to maintain employment). Attributions of trustworthiness were also found to interact with perceptions of uncertainty associated with restructuring. Although no interaction effects were found for continuance commitment, three moderating effects involving trustworthiness attributions were observed between uncertainty and value commitment. Generally speaking, these moderating influences of trustworthiness tended to attenuate the influences of uncertainties on commitment. Overall, the relationships between uncertainties associated with restructuring and organizational commitment were negative with the exception of uncertainty about the restructuring effort itself, which was positively related to continuance commitment.     

基于预测模糊的供暖系统控制算法研究

针对复杂的供暖系统中存在的大时滞、大惯性和不确定性,引入预测模糊控制算法对该系统进行调节。预测模糊控制算法是将预测控制和模糊控制两种控制算法优点充分结合的一种控制算法。通过Matlab仿真实验表明,在调节供暖系统中使用预测模糊控制比单纯使用预测控制能够产生更好的调节效果。     

Telecommunications policy in Turkey: Dismantling barriers to growth

Modern telecommunications technology is now widely seen as a critical driver in economic development. However, the issues involved in the rapid deployment of this technology are complex and frequently highly controversial. While some issues are technical, the most difficult ones involve changing an institutional framework originally designed for different times and different technologies. The process of changing this framework necessarily involves disruptive change for existing infrastructure and service providers as well as substantial benefits for the economy at large. This paper, based on an extensive series of interviews in Turkey in 2005 as well as published sources, seeks to discuss these issues in light of Turkey's progress to date in taking advantage of advanced available telecommunications technology and the myriad productivity-enhancing services that are associated with it.An important element in developing a more competitive and dynamic sector has been Turkey's long-standing desire to become a member of the European Union (EU). This has encouraged changes in the telecommunications regulatory regime following the guidelines set out in Chapter 19 of the EU “acquis” for candidate members. Nonetheless, substantial further efforts are needed to complete and implement the desired regulatory framework, particularly as it affects the former government monopoly carrier, Turk Telekom and the cable companies. A further limiting factor in recent years has been an overall investment climate characterized by a high level of uncertainty for most investors, regardless of size or nationality.Policy recommendations to help accelerate the deployment of telecommunications technology include a clear reaffirmation of the government's priorities for the sector, a reduction in the level of regulatory uncertainty, strengthening the Board and Staff of the Telecommunications Authority, and reviewing policies to broaden the scope and decrease the cost of telecommunication licenses.     

Convergence between telecommunications and other media: How should regulation adapt?

The paper examines the regulatory issues raised by technological convergence between telecommunications and other media. Market uncertainty for broadband services has gone hand in hand with both uncertainty over how to supply those services and a regulatory framework that will facilitate growth in the sector, ensure a competitive market and provide the necessary protections for consumers and the public. Development of the information market should be determined primarily by market forces. Intervention may be justified but a clear distinction needs to be drawn between regulation in the public interest and regulation to protect against market failure.     

The development of information infrastructure in Hong Kong

Given its geographical advantage and economic integration with mainland China, Hong Kong has naturally become a major communications centre in the Asia-Pacific region. A growing number of international telecommunications and broadcasting companies are establishing business relations with Hong Kong. Hong Kong has also become the first place in the world to launch video-on-demand service. Although these companies are equipped with new technology, their developments have been impeded by the policy inertia of the Hong Kong Government. The objectives of this paper are to highlight some of the regulatory issues posed by the new technology and to make policy recommendations for the removal of the structural barriers impeding Hong Kong’s information infrastructure development.     

New Product Development in Rapidly Changing Markets: An Exploratory Study

Rapid technological change can be both a blessing and a curse. For example, investors and firms of all sizes hope to reap the rewards that may arise from the apparent convergence of the computer, telecommunications, and entertainment industries. With the high level of uncertainty inherent to such rapidly changing markets, however, those potentially dazzling returns are counterbalanced by a daunting level of risk. John Mullins and Daniel Sutherland suggest that firms operating in such markets require NPD practices that can mitigate risk, manage uncertainty, and, of course, increase the likelihood of new product success. To gain insight into the NPD practices that can meet those challenges, they conducted in-depth interviews with managers who were directly involved in NPD projects at US WEST, Inc., a large, multinational firm in the telecommunications industry. The study focused on identifying practices that help the firm bring new products into rapidly changing markets quickly, efficiently, and effectively. A key objective of their study was to go beyond the basics—for example, the use of cross-functional teams—to identify specific practices that allow the firm to address the various levels of uncertainty that characterize its markets. They identify three levels of uncertainty that confront firms operating in rapidly changing markets. First, potential customers cannot easily articulate needs that a new technology may fulfill. Consequently, NPD managers are uncertain about the market opportunities that a new technology offers. Second, NPD managers are uncertain about how to turn the new technologies into products that meet customer needs. This uncertainty arises, not only from customers' inability to articulate their needs, but also from managers' difficulties in translating technological advancements into product features and benefits. Finally, senior management faces uncertainty about how much capital to invest in pursuit of rapidly changing markets as well as when to invest. The study identifies six practices that help the firm address the uncertainty and risk inherent in its rapidly changing markets. For example, market research in this firm's NPD process focuses more on probing than it does on measuring. Involvement of prospective customers in idea generation and the use of prototypes early in the NPD process help the firm uncover customer needs and market opportunities. Large-scale, quantitative market research focuses primarily on determining market size and price points.     

A telecommunications taxonomy

With the advent of new technologies and recent changes in regulations and economies, telecommunications services have grown chaotically. This article describes a taxonomy which uses common terms and concepts to classify the services and features available in telecommunications systems, for planners and policy makers. The structure provides a common basis for Europeans in particular to discuss the formation of new broadband telecommunications networks. It can also be used to identify areas of R&D and to plan future services. As an example, the authors apply the taxonomy to suggest the kinds of elements, properties and rules which might form the basis of a taxonomy knowledge base in telecommunications systems.     

Regional structure and telecommunications planning

The general role of telecommunications in economic development has been recognized, but there remain some important specific issues in matching telecommunications planning to development goals. The author suggests a new approach, based on models relating regional structure to telecommunications demand. Data, which are readily available, on populations in places and rural areas within a region are used to derive a regional structure composed of places and the links between them. These links are found to be very closely related to telecommunications demand. This article suggests that telecommunications and development planners in the Third World should pay particular attention to ensuring that all the links between places in a region are served, and that the models presented here could form the basis for suitable planning criteria.     

Telecommunications/ transportation substitution and energy conservation: Part 1

The substitution of telecommunications for transportation is held to have major potential for increasing energy conservation within the USA, other developed nations, and even developing nations. This article is the first of a two-part re-examination of the substitution hypothesis based on research and experience of the past decade. This part examines the theoretical potential of telecommunications-transportation substitution for energy conservation, and reviews recent research both on public attitudes towards substitution of telecommunications for travel and on the operational experience with substitution experiments in organizations. Part 2, which appears in the June 1982 issue of Telecommunications Policy, examines the major factors which influence whether individuals and institutions will in fact choose telecommunications over travel, and then discusses government policy which could facilitate telecommunications substitution for travel.     

Dynamic performance analysis of U.S. wireline telecommunication companies

Assessing the changes over time in the efficiency of firms participating in competitive markets has always been a major concern to researchers and experts alike. With respect to the US wireline telecommunications sector, recent changes in unbundling regulations, as well as intermodal competition and mergers, have just increased uncertainty in a sector still marked by the Telecommunications Act of 1996. Although Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has become a methodology commonly used in many efficiency assessment applications, in the telecommunications context there is a need to implement an approach that takes into account carry-over activities between consecutive years; because of a wide customer base, financial long-term planning and investments in network elements and facilities are crucial for Local Exchange Carriers (LECs) to succeed. To that end, a Dynamic DEA application is formulated in this paper to evaluate the Incumbent LECs' (ILECs) performance from 1997 to 2007. Finally, a regression analysis has been carried out to establish the impact of competition and regulatory schemes upon carriers' efficiency. The results show that local competition has worsened efficiency, whereas neither intermodal competition nor incentive regulation has such a clear influence.     

New China and communications development: A cultural perspective

The author analyzes Chinese approaches to telecommunications technology. He examines the political and technical goals of the leadership with regard to this field, and explains the ways in which telecommunications development fits into the Chinese culture.     

Decomposition analysis of the telecommunications sector in Indonesia: What does the cellular era shed light on?

Indonesia is currently enjoying rapid development in the telecommunications sector despite the economy having been heavily dependent for almost four decades on the two largest sectors: the manufacturing industry and trade. The telecommunications sector has played an important role in stimulating economic growth in the country during the last few years, with an annual growth rate higher than that of other sectors. This contribution is supported to a great extent by the rapid diffusion of telephony, in particular cellular telephony, as the number of subscribers increased from just 2.1 million in 1999 to 170 million in 2011. Previous studies investigating the impact of the telecommunications sector on the economy aggregate the impact of the sectors on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) without further scrutiny of what sources of growth telecommunications has contributed. Hence, an interesting question arises as to whether the achievement of cellular diffusion is also followed by structural change in the telecommunications sector. That said, this study aims to decompose the output of telecommunications into several sources of growth: domestic final demand, export effect, import substitution effect and technological coefficient effect. A particular interest in this study is to compare the source of growth concerning domestic final demand and the technological coefficient effect. The main tool for analysis in this study is the Input–Output (IO) method, while the time series of the investigation covers the period 1975–2008, allowing comparison of structural changes in the telecommunications sector between the pre- and post-cellular eras. The study found that the coefficient multiplier of the telecommunications sector, which was approximately 1.8 during the 1980s, had decreased to only 1.3 by the end of 2008. Consequently, the final demand from the telecommunications sector contributed less to economic output in the late 2000s compared to the impact in the 1980. Moreover, the cellular era that started in the early 2000s also brought about a trend of changes in telecommunications output. While final demand remains very dominant, the technological coefficient effect has diminished as the source of telecommunications output. This finding indicates a lower ability of the telecommunications sector to build an inter-industry relationship with other sectors. A possible explanation for this result is the cellular uses which are much less related to business activities than that of fixed telephony dating back to the 1970s in Indonesia.     

Wireline deregulation: The Canadian experience

Changes in the state of telephony markets paved the way for significant regulatory and legislative reforms in the telecommunications sector in the 1990s. In Canada, the 1993 Telecommunications Act was enacted to promote the emergence of competitors in a market that had until then been dominated by regional monopolies. This paper examines the Canadian telecommunications regulatory framework and analyzes the regulatory privileges given to new entrants at the expense of former telecommunications monopolies. Such regulations, which were meant to induce competition, ended up hurting consumers and distorting the market process. This paper also shows how the Canadian government recently eliminated many of those regulations by seizing control of the policy agenda from the telecommunications regulator.     

The effects of international telecommunication investment: Wireline and wireless technologies, 1993–1998

In the 1990s, nations in the world from Singapore and Egypt to France and the United States poured billions of dollars into investments in information and telecommunication technologies. This article examines the effects of telecommunications investments from 1993 to 1998 using a model, which suggests that a delay in learning and adjustment is realized before the benefit and that it is (1) the transfer of information and knowledge and (2) the experience with telecommunications technology that contribute to economic performance of a nation. The research addresses the use of both traditional wireline and emerging wireless telecommunications and a nation's investments in telecommunications. The article concludes with a discussion of the results as well as the implications of the proposed learning model.     

Regulation and innovation in the telecommunications industry

This paper aims to introduce issues that relate regulation and innovation in the telecommunications industry. We try to address the following question: which types of regulatory schemes are likely to promote innovation in a fast-growing telecommunications industry? Section 2 analyses ex ante control by sector-specific regulation and ex post control by competition policies. Section 3 deals with the importance of compatibility hence regulation of standards in the telecommunications industry. Section 4 discusses the major issues pertaining to the relation between innovation and pricing on the one hand, and innovation and unbundling on the other.     

The future of telecommunications operator alliances

This paper deals with the issue of telecommunications operator alliances,and their relevance from the point ofview of globalization. Considering theimportance of symmetries in theoreticalphysics, we try to use a standard principle of symmetry, which can be simplytranslated in ‘homogenisation of socioeconomic space’, a new concept whichencompasses the convergence of social trends and economics. After studying telecommunications liberalisationin the US, in EU and in Japan, andanalysing the forces engendered by the homogenisation of socioeconomicspace, we conclude that telecommunications operators will have to reviewtheir alliances strategy to match this on-going movement.     

On the role of telecommunications in development

Numerous studies document the relationship between telecommunications and economic development. The main types and relative merits of these are summarized. The paper argues that more of the same will do little to help promote accelerated telecommunications investment in developing countries as needed. Rather, the efforts should now mainly concentrate on conveying existing sector knowledge to governments and international agencies. The paper focuses on examples of simple, proven tools which can be used to supplement telecommunications project analysis for this purpose.     

Economic growth,telecommunications development and productivity growth of the telecommunications sector: Evidence around the world

This paper studies the relationships between economic growth, telecommunications development and productivity growth of the telecommunications sector in different countries and regions of the world. In particular, this study assesses the impact of mobile telecommunications on economic growth and telecommunications productivity. The results indicate that there is a bidirectional relationship between real gross domestic product (GDP) and telecommunications development (as measured by teledensity) for European and high-income countries. However, when the impact of mobile telecommunications development on economic growth is measured separately, the bi-directional relationship is no longer restricted to European and high-income countries. This study also finds that countries in the upper-middle income group have achieved a higher average total factor productivity (TFP) growth than other countries. Countries with competition and privatization in telecommunications have achieved a higher TFP growth than those without competition and privatization. The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services is found to be a significant factor that has improved the TFP growth of the telecommunications sector in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).     

Competition and social objectives: The case of West German telecommunications

This article discusses the problems which arise if liberalization in telecommunications has to be brought about under strong equity constraints. It is shown that, under West Germany's political framework, the average consumer exerts a much larger influence on telecommunications policy than in, for example, the USa. Distributional concerns therefore play a major role in German telecommunications policy. A strategy is presented which satisfies these equity constraints. The main elements are: (a) to keep the monopoly on the network level; (b) to allow service competition; but (c) only under a regime of ‘harmonized tarrifs’.