Trends and projections for Bangladeshi food production : Rejoinder to M. Alauddin and C. Tisdell

This rejoinder considers the issues raised in an article by M. Alauddin and C. Tisdell on foodgrain production in Bangladesh: a comparison of official output statistics and a revised data series constructed by J.K. Boyce; methodological problems in growth rate estimation; and the ‘ustainability’ of Bangladeshi foodgrain production. In the author's view, the key constraint on agricultural growth in Bangladesh is the inability of cultivators to achieve effective water control, within the framework of an inequitable agrarian structure.     

Foodgrain price and trade policy in the Dominican Republic

As in many developing countries, the Dominican Republic has both an overvalued official foreign exchange rate and a policy of heavy government intervention in foodgrain markets. The Institute of Price Stabilization (INESPRE) controls the marketing, pricing and imports of the staple foodgrain, rice. INESPRE's operations and the overvalued currency produced an undervaluation of domestic rice production and an upward distortion of foodgrain imports. Additionally, the increasingly unfavourable rice-fertilizer price ratio has undoubtedly suppressed yields. As part of a set of austerity measures, the newly elected President banned rice imports. Dominican foodgrain policy may be at an important crossroads and a policy assessment is very timely.     

Implementation of food distribution policies: A case study in South India

Public policy for foodgrains distribution and consumption in Coimbatore District of South India involves processing through state trading institutions, and distribution through fair price shops, Food for Work and Employment Guarantee Schemes. Policies are evaluated in terms of their objectives, and institutions for the implementation of policy are analysed in terms of the way in which they mobilize and distribute resources: foodgrains, capital and labour. Although this deficit district has captured shares of Tamil Nadu State's publicly distributed grain which are disproportionate to its share of the state's ‘vulnerable’ population, nevertheless, schemes to increase the latter's foodgrain consumption have been patchily implemented over space and time, and they have had little measurable impact on intended beneficiaries.     

Fertilizer supplies and foodgrain production in China, 1952–1982

Because organic fertilizer is limited, chemical fertilizer supply has to be increased drastically in the next few years if China is to cope with accelerated demands for foodgrain. Nevertheless, the combined application of both types of fertilizer has yielded a coherent trend of constant returns to scale over time. With marginal and average response rates remaining high, there is still room for increased use. Thus, the recent decentralization has led to higher demand for chemical fertilizers from Chinese peasants. However, it is doubtful whether such demand pressures will ever prevail over the established strategy of maximizing growth of heavy industries.     

Technology adoption and value chains in developing countries: Evidence from dairy in India

Adoption of modern technologies in agriculture is crucial for improving productivity and welfare of poor farmers in developing countries. Not much is known about how value chains do (not) affect technology transfer and/or adoption in food chains in developing countries. We analyze farm-level technology adoption in the dairy chain in India, using unique survey data. The dairy chain in India is an important case because the Indian government has promoted development of the dairy sector for its potential for ‘pro-poor’ growth, and because value chain initiatives had strong effects on dairy farm technology in other countries with imperfect markets and growth in demand. We find that despite rapid growth in milk consumption and production, technology adoption in the form of better hygienic practices, better feed and improved livestock was mixed, and low for certain regions and technologies. So far, the role of value chains in the adoption of new technologies seems to be minor.     

The new political economy of food and agricultural development

This paper emphasizes the benefits of an agricultural strategy of development in developing countries. It begins by analyzing the close links between food and employment in the development process. In an underdeveloped country, food production is minimal, but demand is as well because of the small population growth. After development begins, income rises and food demand outstrips production. Only at later stages of development can food production meet demand. The middle stage of development describes most developing countries, which have averaged annual growth rates of 3% per capita in 1966-80. The growth in food demand must be met through technological advance in agriculture: high-yield seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation, which, for example, helped India increase cereal yields 29% between 1954-55 and 1964-65. The rate of growth in cropped areas has declined between 1961-1980, making increased yields more necessary. Growth in employment and income leads to higher food demand, which leads to higher prices and labor costs and a tendency towards capital-intensive agriculture. As the rural sector becomes wealthier, there is also more opportunity for non-agricultural rural workers, creating still more demand. In the final development stage, agricultural products can generate foreign exchange. In Asia, the priority is to ensure efficient outcomes of capital allocations, while in Africa, technology must be instituted. Public investment has been shown to be essential to rapid development in Japan, Taiwan, and the Punjab of India. The absence of this investment in Africa, partly because of an overemphasis on urban sector investment, is largely responsible for the backward state of African agriculture. Often rural areas are overtaxed, agricultural experts are lacking, and there is a growing presence of urban bureaucrats. Both experts in the donor community and farmers themselves must become more vocal in demanding investment in the agricultural sector.     

The seed and agricultural biotechnology industries in India: An analysis of industry structure,competition, and policy options

Since the late 1980s, technological advances and policy reforms have created new opportunities for private-sector investment in India’s seed and agricultural biotechnology industries. These changes have had a significant impact on cotton yields and output in India, but less so for rice and wheat—the country’s main cereal staples—for which yield growth rates are tending toward stagnation. This analysis examines the structures of these industries, their potential effects on competition and innovation, and the policies that may improve both industry performance and the delivery of new productivity-enhancing technologies to India’s cereal production systems. Our findings suggest that more substantive policy reforms are needed to encourage further innovation, reduce regulatory uncertainty, and encourage firm- and industry-level growth, while continued public spending on agricultural research is needed to support technological change.     

China's wheat import programme

China is the world's largest foodgrain producer. It is also the world's major grain trader. China's participation in the world's grain market is unique because of its importance as both a grain importer and exporter, unlike other grain trading nations. This article considers the reasons for China's wheat import programme by following the controversy among Chinese academics, and attempts a more systematic appraisal by the application of regression analysis.     

Competitiveness and trade potential of India’s dairy industry

India has become the world’s largest milk producer but its dairy industry lacks market access. This paper determines how world dairy policy reforms would affect dairy production and trade in India and the competitiveness of its dairy industry. We measure nominal protection coefficient for India’s dairy products to determine level and change in competitiveness between 1975 and 2001. We estimate parameters of domestic demand for and supply of raw milk and whole milk powder to determine how a world price increase would affect domestic milk production and whole milk powder exports. Results show that India’s dairy products lack export competitiveness. But with less distorted world dairy markets, India could be competitive and would emerge as a net exporter of whole milk powder, benefiting dairy industries and milk producers in India.     

Price policies and the SAM: A wheat-maize comparison

This article examines the historical development of Mexico's foodgrain policies and the events that led to the Sistema Allmenticio Mexicano (SAM). Government investment and support price policies are compared for the commercial and smallholder grain sectors. Analysis centres on the relatively favourable wheat policies, in contrast to those for maize. The prospects for success in developing the long-ignored peasant sector through SAM are assessed in the light of these past policies. It is concluded that, without profound structural change in Mexico's grain sectors, it will be consumers and commercial growers who will benefit most from SAM.     

An analysis of R&D objectives in Indian manufacturing companies

The need for R&D has been well recognized by the manufacturing companies in India, but it is felt that R&D has not been generally effective in having a marked impact on the growth of their business. One of the reasons for this could be discrepancies in their R&D objectives. This paper presents the results of an empirical study of the R&D objectives of a few manufacturing companies in India viewed against the background of their environments. The analysis points to the discrepancies observed in R&D objectives and hints at suitable corrective measures.     

Supply chains and economic development: Insights from the Indian dairy sector

With almost three quarters of the labor force depending on agriculture in India, kick-starting agricultural growth is considered crucial for pro-poor development. More specifically, dairy production – which is labor-intensive but does not heavily rely on access to land – is generally expected to offer better prospects for income growth to the poorest among rural households. However, most policies aimed at increasing dairy production are based on ad hoc observations, with hardly any micro-level evidence. Using a unique primary dataset on 1000 rural households in Andhra Pradesh, this paper investigates the dairy production system, addressing three main research questions: First, we look at the typical profile of a dairy farmer and we find that both family traditions in dairy and owning (even a small piece of) land play a role in determining participation in dairy – while land size does not matter. Second, we show that dairy production is strongly and positively associated with improvement in rural livelihoods, in terms of income per capita, but that this positive relation only holds for larger dairy farms. In a third step, we look at the determinants of farm growth and we find that households having higher shares of graded dairy animals have grown more after 2005.     

The rise of IT services clusters in India: A case of growth by replication

The Indian IT services sector has grown from small beginnings at the bottom of value creation to a major player in the global information and communications technology (ICT) industry. It commands a 55% share in the global market for IT services. India's IT sector value proposition in terms of low cost with large supply of high quality talent is compelling. As a result, India has become the premier choice not only for outsourcing IT services by the developed-world's multinational corporations (MNCs) but also for locating their own Global In-house Centers (GICs), which simultaneously compete and partner with local firms. This gave rise to six additional clusters beyond the earliest, largest and robust cluster, Bangalore. The paper provides a review of relevant literature; develops a conceptual framework for evaluation of clusters; and presents data and analysis with respect to relative size, growth, specialization, MNC presence and connectivity to local firms through expatriates and returning Indians, ,innovation; and discusses adequacy of ICT infrastructure for future growth. Although there are clear signs that the Indian IT sector has been moving towards a regime of providing high-end value added services, the sector's value proposition – lower cost combined with a large supply of high quality talent – remains the single most compelling reason for the rise and growth of multiple export clusters. Thus the sector's growth appears to be a case of growth by replication rather than innovation. The paper concludes that the Indian IT sector's value proposition in terms of lower cost combined with large supply of high quality talent remains the single most compelling reason for the rise and growth of multiple IT services export clusters. While the old adage, “people follow jobs” still holds for large part of the labor force, there is little doubt that the sprawling IT services clusters in India - with more to come from Tier II and Tier III cities – indicate, in fact, that “jobs follow talent." Both local firms and the MNCs, through their GICs, are pushing the boundaries of location farther and farther to continue to leverage cost advantage and available pools of talent.     

Telecommunications services and economic growth: Evidence from India

This paper estimates the growth contributions of telecom services by public and private sectors and distinguishes it from the information technology services. Socio-economic determinants of demand for telecom services are estimated for fixed and mobile phones in the framework of a Logit model and using data from a small-household sample survey in India. Estimation results show a significant negative impact of price and a positive impact of income variables; distinguish the importance of social caste, education level, nature of occupation, age of household head and family size between fixed and mobiles phones and offer evidence for substitutability of mobile phones for fixed phones. These results add to the empirical knowledge of socio-economic determinants of telecom demand and have implications for selective design of policies towards promotion of higher demand and attainment of higher economic growth by fixed and mobile services in India and other developing countries.     

Mobile banking in a developing economy: A customer-centric model for policy formulation

India needs inclusive growth to pull millions out of poverty. Despite the best efforts of mainstream financial institutions, financial exclusion is depriving millions of poor any chance to attain adequate standard of living. Telecommunication infrastructure growth especially mobile phone penetration has created an opportunity for providing financial inclusion. The current state of mobile banking is characterized by a top-down approach. This paper presents a bottom-up approach of designing mobile banking service which would be acceptable and accessible to the poor customers. The results point to clear preference of the urban poor for a joint bank–telecom led mobile banking model. Conjoint analysis of the data points to preference for attributes related to security/safety of a bank along with the coverage, accessibility and nimbleness of a telecom service provider with minimal documentation. The paper in its conclusion exhorts the regulators, telecom service providers and financial institutions to involve end-users in order to create a sustainable mobile banking service for financial inclusion.     

Farm size and productivity growth in the United States Corn Belt

In recent decades, agricultural production in the U.S. has continued to shift to large-scale operations, raising concerns about the economic viability of small and midsized farms. To understand whether economies of size provided an incentive for the consolidation of production, the study estimates the total factor productivity (TFP) of five size classes of grain-producing farms in the U.S. Heartland (Corn Belt) region. Using quinquennial Agricultural Census data from 1982 to 2012 the study also compares TFP growth rates across farm sizes to gain insight into whether observed productivity differences are likely to persist. The finding of a strong positive relationship between farm size and TFP suggests that consolidation of production has contributed to recent aggregate productivity growth in the crop sector. The study estimates the extent to which sectoral productivity growth can be attributed to structural change versus other factors including technological change. The study also explores some tradeoffs associated with policies that raise the productivity of small versus large farms.     

Fish and nutrition in India

A 1966 survey of possibilities for increasing food production to meet India's minimum nutritional requirements concluded that a national programme could be formulated for making better use of India's vast potential in fisheries. This article gives an account of the current production and disposal of fisheries products in India. The three major phases of fisheries operations are distinguished, and actions are proposed that could be taken in each phase to help alleviate malnutrition in India. Finally the article discusses how such actions could be undertaken within a comprehensive national programme designed to increase the contribution of fisheries to the alleviation of India's malnutrition problem.     

Examining linkages between Smart Villages and Smart Cities: Learning from rural youth accessing the internet in India

The literature on Smart Cities has not as yet paid adequate attention to the rural sector, and the potential in villages for creating smart and sustainable solutions for the 21st century. This paper focuses on linking proposed smart city strategies to smart village policies to ensure that rural youth have improved opportunities for employment through ICT initiatives to ensure digital inclusion, using primary surveys undertaken in India. The motivation was to understand how mobile telephony could be a catalyst to create Smart Villages in India, where young people can chart out new pathways to realize their aspirations with regard to tertiary education and new avenues for diversifying into rural non-agricultural employment. We use data obtained from a household survey in villages in the states of Punjab and Tamil Nadu to examine the mobile phone usage preferences of rural educated youth to identify the way forward in improving the accessibility of services on the supply side. We make the case that where youth are using mobile phone access to increase their social information base it is indeed possible that the new social media groups formed by rural youth become a powerful conduit for generating new employment opportunities. The key to accessing this solution is to use a demand driven model for mobile services that would permit a bottom of governance model to generate sustainable growth of enterprises and improved human development of these villages.     

Competitiveness and technical efficiency: Determinants in the groundnut oil sector of India

India imports about half of its domestic consumption needs of edible oils. Groundnuts are a major source of edible oils in India. One of the central problems of groundnut production and processing is huge inefficiencies due to an uncertain production environment owing to rainfed cultivation, the low resource base of smallholder farmers and processors, and the low adoption rates of improved technology. This paper addresses critical issues that impair the groundnut sector’s international competitiveness and efficiency. The paper uses primary data collected from Indian farmers and processors of groundnuts to measure efficiency, and it suggests policies for reducing yield gaps and increasing efficiency. Specific policies suggested from the study are (a) the harnessing of improved varieties with attributes like drought tolerance, high oil content, high productivity for large-scale seed multiplication and distribution by public and private agencies; (b) viable village seed banks and seed networks through cycles of post-rainy season seed multiplication to meet the seed requirements in the rainy season and vice versa; (c) adoption of low-cost technologies to increase profitability and reduce risk; (d) oilseed clusters to facilitate scale and scope economies in processing units; and (e) capital subsidies to accelerate technological upgrading to shed inefficiency in the processing sector. The expected gains in efficiency in the production and processing of oilseeds are expected to result in producer and consumer gains which would justify the proposed incentives for seeds and for technological upgrading in the processing sector.     

The evolution of hog production and potential sources for future growth in China

Following reforms to the market, China’s hog industry has developed rapidly, however, with social and economic transitions, China’s hog industry is facing challenges which might restrict long-term growth in production. This paper analyzes the changes in regional scale, organization, input factors, and technological progress for China’s hog production over the last few decades. The paper seeks to reveal the sources of hog production growth and provide some suggestions for future development of the hog industry. To achieve these aims, the paper uses stochastic frontier production functions and the Malmquist index to measure total factor productivity (TFP) in the hog industry and decompose TFP into technical efficiency; technological progress; scale efficiency; and allocative efficiency using data for 25 provinces from 1980 to 2008. The results show firstly that; the TFP of hog production increased by 64.3% from 1980 to 2008, and allocative efficiency and scale efficiency improvements played a key role in this TFP growth. In contrast, technical efficiency and technical progress have changed little over this period. Secondly, TFP’s contribution to output was 39.7%, it being less than that of factor inputs to output. Thirdly, the results suggest that the growth of China’s pork production depends mostly on the increase in the quantity of factor inputs, especially feed. As a consequence, the key to ensuring long-term and stable development of China’s hog production would seem to involve focusing on enhancing total factor productivity and changing the pattern of production growth.