The petrodollars and the world economy

The quadrupling of the oil price by the OPEC in 1973 was a poignant event in the post-war development of the world economy. Which measures and mechanisms conduced to the international income redistribution necessitated by the hoisting of the oil prices in the past five years?     

Upswing in the world economy

The world economy gained distinct momentum last year. Following North America, the forces for growth have now prevailed in Western Europe and the Japanese economy has also picked up. Real gross domestic product in the industrial countries rose faster than expected at 3%. Will this upward trend keep going, as it must to alleviate unemployment?     

The world economy at the crossroads

The dramatic changes presently taking place in the world economic environment involve considerable risks, but at the same time offer significant opportunities which should not be ignored. Some of the major challenges the world economy is facing in the 1990s are discussed in the following article.     

Marked recovery in the world economy

With expansion accelerating strongly since last summer, the world economy has overcome an extended period of weakness. The USA, driven by highly expansive fiscal policies, is once again proving to be an important locomotive for global economic development. The strong fiscal stimulus will diminish sharply this year, however. Can the recovery continue nonetheless? This is of importance for the euro area in particular, where exports have so far been the primary foundation of economic resurgence. Is the substantial appreciation of the euro jeopardising prospects of catching up with the rest of the world?     

Increased risks for the world economy

Last year again saw a rapid increase in global production, with growth of around 4%. However, the deep financial crisis in Southeast Asia led to considerable retarding influences during the second half of the year. In some quarters it is even feared that the crisis could spread to other regions, culminating in worldwide deflation or even depression. Are such fears justified?     

中国经济对世界的贡献

每一个国家都不是生活在与世隔绝的环境中,都和其他国家有商品、资本、人员、信息的交换,有时候还发生武力冲突.各种各样的相互关系,有的产生积极的影响,对双方都有利,也有的对一方有利对另外一方不利,最糟糕的是双方都吃了亏,像战争就是如此.     

Hesitant recovery in the world economy

So far there has been no far-reaching recovery in the world economy. While the recession of 2001 was overcome at the beginning of last year, demand and output growth has been restrained in spite of expansive economic policies. This is partly due to a mood of great uncertainty, caused not least by geopolitical tensions and declining confidence on the financial markets. Will the dampening effect of these factors ebb away this year and so lead to a marked upward trend in the world economy?     

Continued growth in the world economy

After the stock market crash in the autumn of 1987 even optimists were predicting a sharp slowdown in the growth of the world economy in 1988. In the event, the GNP of the industrialised countries increased by 4% in real terms last year. What is the outlook for 1989?     

No momentum in the world economy

The upswing in the world economy has lost momentum surprisingly fast. A slowdown in growth in North America had been expected, but the budding hopes in Japan and Western Europe for a continued recovery in utilisation of capacity and employment were disappointed. Are there grounds for such hopes in 1996 or have the structural constraints on growth now become so powerful as to prevent a more significant economic revival?     

Lasting recovery in the world economy

Economic recovery has returned to the industrial countries as a whole. However, expansion is moderate. In continental Europe, utilisation of capacity is still below the long-term average. In Japan, under-utilisation of capacity is even more pronounced. At the same time, unemployment has remained high. Elsewhere, though, and particularly in the USA, resources have been exploited to a high degree. Here too, however, wage and price increases remained moderate. Economic convergence is accompanied by a convergence of economic policy—not just in those countries striving to take part in the European Monetary Union. In view of this, how good are the prospects for economic development and for employment in the coming year?     

The core and periphery of the world economy

This paper reviews three models of foreign trade, including the Heckscher-Ohlin model, the new trade theory based on increasing returns to scale, and the model of economic geography and trade with agglomeration effects. It demonstrates that gravity models perform relatively well for differentiated and non-differentiated products. This result supports Hummels' and Levinsohn's () critique of the new theory foundation of the gravity equation. Furthermore, the bilateral trade relations of peripheral countries are often identified as outliers. This pattern of outliers is consistent with the model of geography and trade.