国际油价与人民币汇率的非对称溢出效应研究--基于VEC-BEKK-GARCH模型

石油作为重要的战略能源,其价格波动对全球经济的运行和发展会产生极大的影响。为测算国际油价与人民币汇率的均衡关系及非对称溢出效应,选取2008年1月~2019年7月的每日数据,在平稳性检验的基础上,综合运用协整检验和脉冲响应函数等方式,对二者的均值溢出效应进行测量;在VECBEKK-GARCH模型的支撑下,对其非对称波动溢出效应水平进行测算。研究结果表明:国际油价与人民币汇率的协整关系和均值溢出效应处于长期均衡状态;二者的非对称波动溢出效应是双向的,国际油价会随人民币汇率的变化呈现出时变性和持续性特征,而国际油价变动具备持续性特征时,人民币汇率随之产生变化。这种非对称波动溢出效应表明,无论国际油价如何变化,对人民币汇率的冲击都是非对称的。     

中国石油战略问题思考和对策分析

目前,中国油气储量、产量有明显的上升,但天然气勘探开发明显滞后于世界其它国家,油气资源消耗中存在五个方面的问题。根据未来油气资源的需求,我国应调整石油消费结构,提高油气资源利用效益;不断提高天然气在我国能源利用的比例;开辟新的油气探区,保障中国海洋石油资源的权益;加强国外油气勘探开发,开展国际石油贸易;加强能源勘探开发、利用相关的立法,建立完善的石油战略储备制度;加强油气新能源的勘探开发和综合利用技术研究,增加油气来源的多元化。     

Oil shocks and external balances

We provide estimates of the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of oil exporters' and oil importers' external balances, including the oil trade balance, the non-oil trade balance, the current account, capital gains, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA). First, we show that the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the non-oil trade balance. Our results provide evidence of an intermediate degree of international financial integration. Second, we document the presence of large and systematic valuation effects in response to these shocks. Valuation effects overall tend to cushion the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the NFA positions of oil exporters and oil importers. Third, we quantify the overall importance of global business cycle demand shocks as well as oil-market specific demand and supply shocks for external balances.     

关于应对国际石油价格上涨的思考

2008年,国际石油价格持续上涨,有石油供给和需求方面的原因,但更主要的是国际石油市场交易方面的原因。本文分析了国际石油价格持续高位运行对我国经济的影响,探讨了如何应对国际石油价格上涨的相应策略。     

增加我国石油产量、进口量能有效 平抑我国油价吗

本文通过实证研究揭示国际油价和国内油价之间的协整关系及我国石油产量、进口量和出口量对石油价格的影响。结果显示:不管增加石油产量还是增加进口量,对于平抑石油价格的影响都将有限,因为我国目前粗放型经济对石油消费需求的过快增长,相对我国石油产量和进口量增加远跟不上需求增速,导致价格不断上涨。随着我国经济结构转型和人口红利消失、有效劳动人口减少,总体经济增速下降,必然导致我国对外资源依存度趋于平缓甚至下降,在现在这个转折时期,一味单纯地渲染能源饥渴甚至能源供应危机是危险的。目前不惜代价、大手笔地收购海外资源是不明智也是严重滞后的举措。     

Developments in International Franchising

In this article some of the recent developments in international franchising are analysed and their implications considered. The emphasis is on business format franchising which, although still less important overall than product and tradename franchising, has been growing at a faster rate, and there are prospects of conversions to the business format version in the oil industry retailing sector. The spread of international franchising has continued to extend, stimulated by the demand for franchising concepts at the consumer level, and by the active interest of a wide range of buyers of franchise systems in different countries who see franchising as providing new business opportunities. The international franchising scene has become more competitive however, as new local systems have continued to extend, stimulated by the demand for franchise concepts at the consumer level, and by the active interest of a wide range of buyers of franchise systems in different countries who see franchising as providing new business opportunities. The international franchising scene has become more competitive however, as new local systems have continued to arise in different countries, and some have begun international operations.     

俄罗斯能源战略的亚太取向——俄罗斯石油天然气战略的地缘取向

根据俄罗斯推出的国际能源发展战略,俄仍将以能源为杠杆加强其在世界的地位,利用能源因素发展国际合作关系,对能源、经济等问题施加影响。今后俄燃料和能源部门的主要出口战略将倾向于进入亚太地区市场,即开发东西伯利亚和远东地区新油气,拓宽出口渠道,保证石油天然气产品的出口安全。     

世界主要国家和地区生物燃料发展现状和趋势展望

出于能源安全、促进农村经济发展、保护环境等方面考虑,自2000年以来,以美国、巴西和欧盟为主的一些国家和地区大力倡导和扶持生物燃料生产,对当地经济发挥了极大的推动作用,同时也对国际粮油市场产生了巨大影响。借鉴先进国家和地区的有关政策措施和成功经验,对于我国因地制宜发展生物燃料生产,保障能源安全、保护生态环境和建设社会主义新农村具有重大意义。     

当前我国植物油籽贸易的特征、发展趋势与对策

当前石油资源日趋枯竭,柴油供需缺口巨大,寻找和开发新的柴油替代能源势在必行。作为生物柴油开发的优质原料,大豆、油菜等植物油籽的国际工业化需求将会大幅上升,国内外油籽价格倒挂的现象将得到改善,我国植物油籽贸易也将出现新的局面。结合贸易自由化的背景,首先分析了目前我国植物油籽贸易的总量特征、产品结构特征及国别特征;其次分别对大豆、油菜籽、花生、芝麻、葵花籽等重点植物油籽产品的贸易特征及未来发展趋势做出了判断;最后针对当前我国植物油籽贸易中存在的问题,提出了相应的对策。     

Oil and the economy: evolution not revolution

Oil price shocks have had significant effects on the U.S. economy, keeping energy supply, energy policy, and energy security always in focus. The U.S. energy industry has become more efficient and productive, with increased output despite a smaller energy sector. Since the oil price shocks of the 70s, both the impact of oil price shocks and the way we think about them have changed. The impact of an oil price shock on GDP and core inflation is much smaller in magnitude than in the past and depends on the source of the price shock. The recent shale boom in the U.S. has significantly increased oil production to a record high. The short-cycle supply response of shale producers to price changes have trimmed the peaks and troughs of oil prices in the medium term. The shale boom has lowered our dependence on foreign oil and made us less vulnerable to a classic oil supply shock, but we need to contemplate the vulnerabilities that arise from the externalities of our energy use, which will become more critical as we go forward.     

The internationalization of energy supply structures

The World Energy Conference will be held in Munich in mid-September. It will have to deal with diverse and complex problems of energy policy, for the seventies have presented tremendous challenges in the energy field. The control over oil—with 46% of the world supply still by far the most important source of energy—has been reorganized and two oil crises have exposed the flow of supplies to severe disruption and political hazards. As far as can be foreseen, the supply is unlikely to keep abreast of the world-wide rise of energy consumption. To replace the oil gradually will therefore be the major task in the energy field in the coming decades. What will be the supply position between now and the year 2000? And which structural changes will have to be effected?     

我国石油企业的国际竞争力及对外直接投资策略

我国石油企业开展对外直接投资活动是拓展生存空间,提高国际竞争力的必然选择,也是解决国内油气资源供求矛盾的迫切需要。本文利用因子分析方法,采用相关指标构造了石油企业综合竞争力指数,实证研究表明和国外大石油公司相比我国石油企业的竞争力还存在一定差距,但在油气勘探、开采等上游环节具有规模和技术优势。石油企业应将对外直接投资的重点集中在油气勘探、开采等上游环节,通过与东道国石油公司或跨国石油公司合作开展对外直接投资。     

The international transmission of oil-price effects and OPEC's pricing policy

Analyses of oil-price effects generally maintain the assumption that oil importers can be treated as small economies, which allows oil-price changes to be treated as exogenously set by OPEC. Analyses of oil-price determination rely on the assumption that the demand for oil is a stable function, which implies that real income of oil importers is unaffected by oil-price changes. Our analysis treats oil prices and economic activity as jointly determined. The effects of exogenous oil-price changes are studied in a simple theoretical world model. Hotelling's analysis is generalized to allow for both oil-price feedback effects and stabilization policies.     

Fuel Tax:14 Years' Expectation

Fuel tax, as the term indicates, means the tax paid by fuel consumers. The more you use a car, the more you have to pay for the fuel. As we know, petroleum is a scarce resource of strategic significance. However, China has only limited reserves of oil with an import dependency rate as high as 50%. In recent years, the demand of oil continues to soar, yet a number of problems widely exist, such as low energy utility efficiency, high per unit energy consumption, and ever-increasing pollution caused by oil consumption.     

CHANGING PATTERNS OF REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE: The Case of Canada Under NAFTA

Recently, the issue of regional and international trade flows has attracted increased attention. Papers by Helliwell and McCallum have stressed the importance of national borders in determining the nature of Canadian economic activity even when adjustments are made for distance and trade barriers. This article, using Provincial Economic Accounts data, estimates an almost ideal demand system to explain the interprovincial and international flow of goods, accounting for changes in relative prices and other factors that have arisen since the formation of NAFTA. The results allow conclusions to be drawn with respect to the importance of geographical proximity to the U.S. border, the influence of price and income elasticities, and the nature of the industrial/resource endowment mix of the province. The relevant elasticities allow for the examination changes to the internal and external trade patterns and to the differences which have developed in the various regions of Canada.     

人民币国际化的现实路径与机遇

随着中国经济的发展,国际影响力的提高,人民币的国际地位也随之提升,边境贸易助推人民币区域化,货币互换为增加境外人民币存量提供了制度安排,离岸中心为境外人民币提供了服务平台,人民币国际化在各个领域已经形成共识。受全球金融危机的影响,世界关键货币——美元持续疲软,国际能源价格持续下跌,给人民币国际化创造了难得的历史机遇,人民币加速国际化的呼声也越来越高涨。中国应利用人民币升值通道期,推动人民币国际结算功能实现;利用石油价格的下跌期,推动重要能源的人民币国际计价;利用中国全球贸易地位,树立人民币储备货币地位。     

Structural changes in world crude oil trade

The way in which international trade in crude oil is conducted has changed drastically since the beginning of 1979. Who has access to crude oil in producing countries, in what quantity, at what prices, and for how long is in question. Jochen Mohnfeld analyses, recent trends and future developments, paying special regard to the producer countries’ tendency to require more state involvement of importing countries in crude oil trade and drawing some tentative conclusions for the latter’s energy policies.     

Paul Sabin. Crude Politics: The California Oil Market, 1900-1940. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2004. xx + 307 pp. ISBN 0-520-24198-3, $39.95 (cloth).

Champions of the oil industry have long claimed that oil isthe cheapest form of energy. Why is it so cheap? The conventionalanswer emphasizes oil’s natural abundance and the wondersof market supply and demand. Most historians who study the industryat least implicitly accept this explanation. But is not resourceabundance a socially constructed concept? Can we so easily isolatemarket forces from politics and government policy in explainingthe cost and price of oil? These     

The “Oil Crisis” — a crisis for LDCs

It is the group of LDCs whose reserves of indigenous energy are so small that they desperately need sizeable imports of oil, but which do not have sufficient other resources to earn the necessary foreign currency for their oil imports, that is suffering most under the economic changes which came over the world economy as a sequel to the oil crisis. Its future destiny is now literally a difficult balancing on “a knife’s edge”.     

影响我国金融服务贸易竞争力的因素分析——基于钻石理论视角

以"钻石理论"作为基础,分别从要素条件、需求条件、相关与支持产业、企业战略和同业竞争、政府政策和机遇六个方面对影响中国金融服务贸易竞争力的因素进行了分析。并依据影响金融服务贸易竞争力的原因提出了积累高级生产要素,拓展海外市场、扩大需求,支持相关产业发展、促进竞争力提升,激发有效竞争等对策。