How to pay for the debt — Coping with the Third World's crisis

The Brady Plan is the first official proposal to give priority to a tangible reduction in the debtor countries' debt service burden and is thus a milestone along the path towards overcoming the international debt crisis. However, the instruments foreseen in the Plan virtually invite criticism and scepticism. What are the main inadequacies of the Brady Plan? How can the international debt strategy be developed further and made more effective?     

The international debt crisis and the banks

When the international debt crisis broke in 1982 it appeared for a time that the crisis might engulf the international banking system. What part did the banks play in the creation of the problem? What was their role in overcoming the crisis? Dr. Otmar Emminger, former President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, answers these questions and names the consequences the crisis will have on the international banking industry.     

Is a second debt crisis looming?

The debt crisis of the developing countries, which loomed so large at the beginning of the eighties, appears for the time being to have been overcome. However, under the surface problems are growing that could give a debt crisis among the developing countries an entirely new dimension. Under what conditions can a second debt crisis be prevented?     

The Locals' Opportunity Under Foreign Banks' Expansion

The global financial crisis is striking the international financial market severely. Since July 2007, foreign banks and brokers have been suffering an enormous loss caused by the financial crisis. More than 160 thousand jobs have been cut this year by financial institutions like Citibank, HSBC and Morgan Stanly, etc. However, what shows a strong contrast with global job cutting is that these foreign banks are rapidly expanding their business in China. According to the data of related market,seven foreign banks have opened more than nine new branches in two months after September 17, the day that Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection. November 17, HSBC issued China UnionPay debt cards in 17 cities of China. At the same time, several new services of foreign banks were supposed to be authorized by CBRC (China Banking Regulatory Commission), including loan corporation of Citibank and credit cards of BEA.     

对短期负债与国际金融危机关系的重新审视--基于双重代理的分析

按照金融危机理论，短期负债是造成国际金融危机的重要原因，为了防止金融危机的爆发，应该通过对短期资本流入征税等措施来限制甚至禁止短期外债。但基于双重代理的分析，短期负债会使政府采取对投资者更为有利的政策，这在确保贷款方回收贷款的同时，也提高了借款企业以及借款国的福利水平。因此，危机的原因应归结为借款方对借款能力的耗竭，而不是短期负债。     

Can the international debt strategy use the concept of corporate compositions?

So far, it has been possible to stave off really serious consequences for the world economy and the international financial system since the developing-country debt crisis started in 1982. Yet for many developing countries, external debt problems and the underlying economic crisis are as pressing as ever. The following article identifies five central elements of a general orientation framework for dealing with the debt crisis which has been inspired by the basic idea of the concept of corporate compositions found in commercial law.     

Loan loss provisioning

Before the background of the debt crisis loan loss provisioning has been gaining in importance, as one of the measures adopted by banks to reduce their exposure in highly indebted countries and to strengthen their balance sheets. Prof. Abbott examines the concept and forms of provisioning, and discusses the recent establishment of international guidelines and their likely effects on the debt crisis.     

凯恩斯主义与新自由主义的“争”与“合”

20世纪30年代至今,凯恩斯主义与新自由主义一直处于针锋相对的状态。尽管两者的理论主张背道而驰,但都曾陷入无法挽救经济危机的窘境。在欧洲主权债务危机和国际金融危机爆发后的后危机时代,世界亟待构建新的理论框架,各国亟需择取有效的宏观经济政策,由此才能促进国家经济增长。将这两者有效结合将不失为一个明智之举。     

Die Jagd auf den Zins oder: die Fiskalpolitik der Regierung Monti und ihre Folgen

Mario Monti became Prime Minister of Italy in the autumn of 2011 after the refinancing of Italy??s debt in the financial markets had almost failed. The Monti government has since made the lowering of the risk premium for Italy??s government bonds an absolute priority. This, however, has only been somewhat successful. Although the new debt was decreased and the balance of trade recorded a surplus, an interest rate spread remains. At the same time, the government??s austerity measures only deepened the economic crisis. By contrast, the decision of the ECB in September 2012 to buy government bonds of crisis-ridden states without limitation has proven to be far more effective. The introduction of taxes on higher incomes and wealth to finance growth programmes could now help to resolve the economic crisis.     

欧元区主权债务危机分析

欧元区主权债务危机的爆发缘于欧元区分散的财政政策与统一的货币政策之间的二元矛盾;欧元区国家不可持续的社会经济结构模式;全球金融危机的冲击。欧元区主权债务危机从债权安全、国际贸易、汇率改革、人民币国际化等方面给我国带来挑战和机遇。欧洲主权债务危机对我国的总体影响是有限的,我国在近期也不可能出现主权债务危机,可以从欧元区主权债务危机中得到启示:加快经济结构优化调整;规范地方政府融资行为;谨慎开展区域货币一体化合作。     

High growth in China—Transition without a transition crisis?

Unlike other transition economies the People's Republic of China has so far not only avoided a severe transition crisis; it has apparently also managed to make economic transition a source of growth. However, the country now faces a number of crucial transition problems that centre around the debt situation of state-owned enterprises and the fragile condition of the financial system. Could these problems, for which solutions have repeatedly been postponed, trigger a late transition crisis?     

Nightmare on Kaiserstrasse

The overhang of debt (private and surging public) is perhaps the principal reason why recessions following financial crises are so deep and lasting. Frequently, a wave of international financial and banking crises is followed by a wave of sovereign defaults. This is the case of the Eurozone crisis today. How might a sovereign debt default of, say, Greece affect the Eurozone? The nightmare scenario is a complete unraveling of the euro. The euro can still be saved, but perhaps only with the weaker countries undergoing major restructuring of their sovereign debt.     

Firm Shutdown During the Financial and the Sovereign Debt Crises: Empirical Evidence from Portugal

This paper examines Portuguese firms’ survival over the business cycle and investigates whether the effect of firm size varies across the phases of the cycle and with the type of shock associated with periods of economic contraction. Our results show that smaller firms are more likely to shut down than larger firms. Within each size band, however, we found that during the two crises examined, micro firms experienced hazards of closing (relative to large firms) at least similar to those observed in the pre-crisis period, while medium-sized firms were found to have been more vulnerable during the financial crisis period but showed more resilience during the sovereign debt crisis. The results suggest that during the sovereign debt crisis, firms faced a higher probability of closing than they did during the financial crisis.     

美欧应对债务危机路径的国际比较研究

美欧发达国家政府的债务危机问题已经越来越严重,逐渐引起了包括发展中国家在内的世界各国的广泛关注.面对此次债务危机,美欧各国都相继采取了各种财政、货币政策措施加以应对.在分析美欧国家债务危机产生原因以及列举美欧国家应对危机采取的措施基础上,对其政策措施实施效果进行了分析比较,最后总结了主权债务危机给中国发展所带来的几点启示.     

浅谈“美国国债困境”对我国的影响

美国国债危机引发世界恐慌,中国作为美国国债最大的持有者,如何能够在风云变幻的国际资本运作中独善其身,是目前最为国民关注的问题。中美经济相互依赖是多年形成的格局,美国国债危机也严重干扰了中国的金融秩序。中国应从美国国债危机中吸取教训,完善外汇储备管理机制,鼓励利用外汇储备,加强对投机资本的监管,减少对他国经济的依赖性,尽最大可能减少美国国债危机带来的冲击。     

后金融危机时代美欧金融发展形势及启示

后金融危机时代,美国的金融霸权未被金融危机动摇,突出表现在美国仍然掌控货币霸权、金融机构霸权、国际金融话语霸权等,且美国继续滥用其金融霸权地位。而欧洲则深陷欧债危机,其主要原因包括欧洲国家自身经济失调、欧元区内部的不平等地位和国际评级机构的不公正评级等。我国应根据美欧金融形势和经验教训,坚持稳中求进,深入实施扩大内需,转变经济结构,把握发展实体经济这一坚实基础,稳健发展虚拟经济,合理制定与调整我国金融业发展战略,加强我国金融业实力和地位,注意对国内金融创新的监督,构建我国金融业全面风险管理体系。     

危机冲击、会计稳健性与债务资源配置

针对有关会计稳健性是否应作为一项会计信息质量特征的理论争议,文章从决策有用性的财务会计基本目标出发,以2008年金融危机为冲击事件实证检验了在危机环境中会计稳健性对债务资源配置的影响。结果表明与危机前相比,在金融危机期间会计稳健性不仅能引导债务资源的配置方向,而且能显著提高债务资源的配置效率。同时在考虑到我国特殊产权制度因素后进一步研究发现,相对于国有企业,稳健性对债务资源配置的影响在民营企业中表现得更加显著。文章研究从债务资源配置方向和配置效率两方面丰富了会计稳健性的债务契约理论,支持了会计稳健性作为一项会计信息质量特征的必要性,也对银行等金融机构的债务资源配置决策具有重要指导意义。     

Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign's willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs.     

Macroeconomic policy cooperation and the G20

Has the G20 achieved its goals in macroeconomic cooperation since 2008? The paper organises the G20's efforts under five themes: macroeconomic stimulus, fiscal consolidation, monetary policy, the global financial safety net and global imbalances. The G20 was initially successful in each of these areas, but this success was short‐lived. While the G20 met its goals on macroeconomic stimulus, it has been less successful in reducing deficits and debt. While it was successful in increasing its resources, the global financial safety net remains too small, too fragmented and institutional reform is incomplete. While the G20 succeeded in moving to more market‐determined exchange rates and avoiding competitive devaluations, it struggled to avoid negative spillovers. Despite years of effort, the G20 has made limited progress in reducing global imbalances. Current account imbalances are creeping back to pre‐crisis levels. Public debt remains high and most economies are moving in the wrong direction in correcting imbalances in household savings and debt. The paper concludes that the G20 has done better in some areas than others. But to suggest the G20 is a forum in decline ignores its shift from reactive crisis response to longer‐term structural challenges outside of the pressing need of an immediate crisis.     

Note: Dealing with Iraq’s foreign indebtedness

Iraq now faces a growing economic crisis, which is impoverishing the country and threatening its basic social fabric. The crisis is partly the result of decades of mismanagement on the part of the Iraqi government. It is also the result of massive overspending and foreign borrowing during the Iran–Iraq War and the Gulf War. This article investigates Iraq’s debt crisis and attempts to devise a pragmatic debt‐management strategy, which could pos‐sibly lead to solving this acute problem. The four‐pillar strategy introduced here, if well implemented, would not only obliterate the debt, but could more importantly set the scene for Iraq’s return to its place in the international community with a renewed political and economic stability. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.