On the impact of financial development on income distribution: time-series evidence

Financial market development is said to have equalizing or unequalizing effects on income distribution. Previous research used cross-sectional and panel data and provided mixed results. Suspecting that they suffer from aggregation bias, we adhere to time-series data and error-correction modeling technique and address the issue one more time in each of the 17 countries for which we have time-series data. In 10 counties, short-run effects of financial market development on income distribution were found to be equalizing. In five countries, the effects were unequalizing. However, the equalizing effects lasted into the long run only in three countries of Denmark, Kenya and Turkey.     

特别保障措施的贸易效应实证研究

本文选取2002-2006年间立案的20个对华特别保障措施案例,利用6位税则号涉案产品的年度数据,构建面板数据模型定量考察了对华实施特别保障措施过程中贸易破坏效应、贸易转移效应的存在和大小,发现特别保障措施不仅导致了指控国从中国的涉案产品进口减少,而且促使从非指控国同类产品的进口增加,产生了贸易转移效应。     

Analysing the employment effects of mergers and acquisitions

This paper examines the employment effects of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by using matched establishment-level data from Finland. Our data register practically almost all M&As in all sectors. We compare the employment effects of cross-border M&As with the effects arising from two different types of domestic M&As and internal restructurings. The results show that cross-border M&As lead to downsizing in manufacturing employment. The effects of cross-border M&As on employment in non-manufacturing are much weaker. Changes in ownership associated with domestic M&As and internal restructurings also typically cause employment losses, but they exhibit an interesting sectoral variation.     

The consequences of the introduction of the euro: a nested mixed-effects analysis of the international banking positions

In this paper, we will examine the effects of the launch of the euro from the perspective of the international banking positions by a combination of the gravity model, widely used to explain the structure of world trade, and the mixed effects model, which is a hybrid version of the fixed and random effects models of panel data analysis. The specification could be examined by the likelihood ratio tests by decomposing the model into fixed and random effects elements. The empirical study indicates that the new currency is certain to benefit the euro area, but the effects on the non-euro members of the EU are not as clear as superficial analysis suggests.     

外商投资对中国就业影响的实证分析

外商投资存在直接就业效应和间接就业效应,可以用外商投资流量和存量分别加以度量,运用中国1984～2005年的数据进行计量分析的结论表明：1993年以前外商投资的直接就业效应非常显著,负的间接就业效应也很显著;1993年以后年外商投资的直接就业效应减小。负的间接就业效应也减弱。     

Weight-based pricing in the collection of household waste: the Oostzaan case

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the effects of weight-based pricing in the collection of household waste. Using a comprehensive panel data set on all households in a Dutch municipality we estimate short-run as well as long-run price effects for the amounts of both compostable and non-recyclable household waste. We find significant and sizeable price effects, with the elasticity for compostable waste being four times as large as the elasticity for non-recyclable waste. Long-run elasticities are about 30% larger than short-run elasticities.     

Tax evasion policies and the demand for cash

This paper analyzes the relationship between tax evasion and the demand for cash by studying the effects of two measures to fight evasion: accessing taxpayers’ bank data and imposing thresholds for cash payments. We study the effects of these policies in Italy, where visibility of bank data and cash thresholds were recently increased. We show that both significantly affected cash holdings, which grew by about 1.5 percent of the GDP. Using unique high frequency data on cash operations and exploiting regional heterogeneity in tax evasion propensity, we find that accessing bank data pushes regions with higher propensity to evade taxes to convert more deposits into cash. On the contrary, higher cash thresholds do not increase cash holdings more in these regions. We rationalize the findings with a simple model of tax evasion and payment choices, where cash and deposits have different degrees of privacy.     

Excess Returns,Average Returns and the Adjustment Mechanism of the External Position of a Country

I provide a new decomposition of the external constraint of a country in which, in addition to the trade and valuation channel, adjustments in the stochastic discount factor and the spread between average international returns and risk‐free rate can offset a current debt position. The importance of these channels is empirically assessed using US data. A primary contribution of the discount factor and secondary effects of excess and average returns are found in the non‐detrended analysis, confirming the theoretical characterization of the valuation effects in previous literature. By using detrended data instead, the role of excess returns would be spuriously overestimated.     

Medical consumption over the life-cycle

We investigate the association between age and medical spending in the U.S. using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. We estimate a partially linear seminonparametric model and construct “pure” life-cycle profiles of health spending simultaneously controlling for time effects (i.e., institutional changes and business cycles effects) and cohort effects (i.e., generation specific conditions). We find that time and cohort effects together introduce a significant estimation bias into predictions of health expenditures per age group, especially for individuals older than 60 years. The estimation bias introduced by cohort effects increases monotonically with age while the bias due to time effects is not significant. The overall effect of Medicare on the cohort and time effects biases is negligible.     

环境因素如何影响FDI技术外溢效应

从Caves（1974）开始,外商直接投资（FDI）的技术外溢效应逐渐成为研究热点。然而对FDI技术外溢效应的实证分析并没有获得一致结论,这使得学者们进一步深入探讨影响FDI技术外溢效应的各种因素。可以将FDI技术外溢效应的影响因素分为环境因素与企业因素两类。本文围绕环境因素,将现有相关研究进行了归类与回顾,包括吸收能力、技术差距、空间距离、市场竞争、开放程度等。本文的研究表明FDI技术外溢效应受到很多作用力完全相反的因素影响,因此对于不同研究对象,会得到不同的结论。这需要我们更加细致和具体地研究。在机理分析上需深化对影响因素相互作用时的预期效应的研究,在实证分析上需针对目前还没有被实证检验或结论仍模糊的因素的研究;同时,实证研究的科学性需建立在合适的数据集和合适的实证方法之上。对国内研究来说,则需要加大企业层面（动态）面板数据的运用。     

On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than 20 estimators common in the panel data literature using the data on migration to Germany from 18 source countries in the period 1967–2001. Our results suggest that the choice of an estimation procedure has a substantial impact on the parameter estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (1) the standard fixed effects estimators clearly outperforms the pooled OLS estimator, (2) both the fixed effects estimators and the hierarchical Bayes estimator exhibit the superior forecast performance, (3) the fixed effects estimators outperform GMM and other instrumental variables estimators, (4) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set.     

Farm Level Effects of On-Farm Irrigation Infrastructure Programs in the Southern Murray–Darling Basin

On-farm irrigation infrastructure programs have become an important method of recovering water for the environment in the Australian Murray–Darling Basin (MDB). These programs offer farmers funding to upgrade infrastructure in return for a portion of their water rights. This study measures the effects of Australian Government on-farm infrastructure programs in the southern MDB between 2009–2010 and 2016–2017, particularly the On-Farm Irrigation Efficiency Program. A novel dataset is constructed combining program administrative data with farm survey data. This data is used to derive econometric estimates on the effects of these programs on various measures of farm productivity, profitability and water demand. On-farm programs are found to have positive effects for participants in terms of higher farm productivity and profitability. However, the study also finds a Jevon's paradox outcome, where farm demand for water is significantly higher post-upgrade.     

A panel data analysis of the growth effects of remittances

Many development economists believe that remittances by the migrant workers are an important source of funds for long run growth. Therefore, recent studies have investigated the growth effects remittances in the recipient countries but reached different conclusions. This paper analyses the strength of these effects with a common data set with alternative specifications and estimation methods. Our results show that the direct growth effects of remittances are insignificant. However, remittances may have small indirect growth effects.     

On the effects of income volatility on income distribution: Asymmetric evidence from state level data in the U.S.

A previous study that tried to assess the impact of income volatility on income inequality in the U.S. used state level data and a balanced panel model to conclude that increased volatility worsens income distribution in the U.S., which implies that decreased volatility should reduce inequality. We use the same data set that is extended by nine years and revisit the issue using linear and nonlinear ARDL time-series models to show that the above conclusion does not hold in every state. While we discover short-run asymmetric effects of income volatility on a measure of inequality in most states, they translate to long-run asymmetric effects only in 16 states. Both increased volatility and decreased volatility are found to have unequalizing effects on income distribution in these states.     

外商直接投资对中国地区技术创新外溢的实证研究

中国是外商直接投资(FDI)流入最多的国家之一。本文通过对我国各个省级行政区的面板数据分析,发现FDI对我国技术创新存在着溢出效应,而这种溢出效应受到地区差异、所有制结构、市场规模等不同因素的制约。在实践中,我们要根据各地区实际情况,逐步改善中西部地区投资环境,强化市场竞争机制,加快各地区国有企业改革,鼓励私营企业参与竞争,提升FDI对中国各地区技术创新能力的溢出效应。     

美国金融危机对中国出口贸易的影响

本文选取中国与G7国家双边贸易数据,构建动态面板数据模型,实证分析了美国金融危机对中国出口贸易的影响。结果表明,美国金融危机导致G7国家经济陷入衰退,失业率上升、金融市场动荡和国内需求萎缩,由此带来的贸易传播效应给中国出口贸易带来了较为严重的负面影响。从具体的传递渠道来看,G7国家实际GDP指数下降、股票价格指数下跌和人民币实际汇率的波动对中国出口贸易的负面影响较为显著;而G7国家失业率增加对中国出口贸易的影响较小且并不显著。     

外国直接投资对国内投资的影响及区域差异——基于省级面板数据的广义矩法估计

利用我国1985~2005年的经济数据,以各个省市为观测对象建立面板数据模型,并采用广义矩方法对模型进行估计,在此基础上检验外国直接投资对我国国内投资的动态影响及区域差异。研究表明,对全国整体而言,外国直接投资对我国国内投资的影响表现为挤入效应,但在局部地区如东部地区,已经出现了较明显的挤出效应。     

Absorptive capacity and the effects of foreign direct investment and equity foreign portfolio investment on economic growth

This study examines the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) and equity foreign portfolio investment (EFPI) on economic growth using data on 80 countries from 1979 through 1998. The results largely suggest that lagged FDI and EFPI do not have direct, unmitigated positive effects on growth, but some data are consistent with the view that the effects of FDI and EFPI are contingent on the ‘absorptive capacity’ of host countries, with particular respect to financial or institutional development. Moreover, extreme bound analysis (EBA) of significant results indicates that the estimates are robust compared to other empirical studies on growth.     

Union Wage Effects in the Presence of Enterprise Bargaining

Previous research on union wage effects has underestimated the potential for unions to raise member wages since the data used do not enable differences across bargaining units to be properly accounted for. This study addresses this deficiency by utilizing matched employer–employee data that permit workplace-specific union wage effects to be identified. Results from the estimation of wage equations indicate that, while there is only a very small intra-workplace union wage effect, differences across workplaces are considerable. This differential, however, only exists at workplaces where there is substantial coverage by collective agreements.     

Effects of a price limit change on market stability at the intraday horizon in the Korean stock market

This article investigates the effects of a price limit change on the volatility of the Korean stock market’s (KRX) intraday stock price process. Based on the most recent transaction data from the KRX, which experienced a change in the price limit on 15 June 2015, we examine the change in realized variance after the price limit change to investigate the overall effects of the change on the intraday market volatility. We then analyse the effects in more detail by applying the discrete Fourier transform to the data set. We find evidence that the market becomes more volatile in the intraday horizon because of the increase in the amplitudes of the low-frequency components of the price processes after the price limit change. Therefore, liquidity providers are in a worse situation than they were prior to the change.