基于三维空间模型的产业集群持续成长研究

目前,世界范围内一部分产业集群正遭受萎缩和衰退的威胁,这是一个亟待解决的问题。首先分析了产业集群最理想的演化路径,然后构建了由市场需求、产业聚集度和集群动态核心能力构成的三维空间模型,并加以分析。最后提出:产业集群向市场需求、产业聚集度、集群动态核心能力三个维度发展是实现产业集群沿最理想演化路径持续成长的关键。     

Quality Assurance and the Home Market Effect

The home market effect is considered as a distinguishing feature of models of trade with increasing returns to scale in production and imperfect competition. However, some empirical studies found the existence of home market effect even in constant returns to scale industries. This paper builds a model of intra‐industry trade based upon quality assurance and shows the existence of the home market effect without increasing returns in the production technology. This throws into question the rationale of empirical studies attempting to validate the increasing returns model of trade based upon testing the existence of the home market effect.     

Technical change in the commercial aircraft industry, 1925–1975

The American commercial aircraft industry has complied an extremely impressive record of performance in innovation and growth in output. This paper assesses the impact of government policy during a fifty-year period upon innovative performance and market structure in the commercial aircraft industry. In general, this apparent success of government policies in supporting rapid technical change in the industry reflects the impact of these policies upon both the supply of technological knowledge and the demand for innovative aircraft designs. The success of this policy structure has implications for technology policies in other industries.     

Do equity index industry groups improve forecasts of inflation and production? A US analysis

This study develops a new financial market indicator, which may be a useful addition to analysing real activity in the US. By taking the ratio of the price return of equity industry groups of the S&P 500 over a benchmark industry group, in this case taken to be the Utilities industry group, an indicator is created which represents the price return performance specific to each individual industry. We then perform recursive pseudo out-of-sample bivariate forecasts of future changes in the Industrial Production Index (IPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3-month, 6-month and 12-month horizons using each of the indicators and compare results against an AR forecast. The results of the bivariate forecasts using a number of the indicators produce better forecasts of changes in the IPI and are also significant for causality, both for the full sample period and when tested recursively. Bivariate forecasts of changes to the CPI, however, do not improve upon the AR forecasts.     

不同来源跨国资本在中国FDI的比较研究

文章对美国、欧盟、日本、新加坡、中国香港、中国台湾等中国大陆最主要的投资来源国和地区的跨国公司在华投资的决定因素进行鉴别和分析,对比了在中国投资的不同来源跨国公司的投资规模、销售分布和本土化战略、投资区位分布、产业分布和投资绩效。文章认为,无论不同来源国家和地区的跨国公司进入中国市场是出于何种目的都将不断扩大其在中国的市场份额,增加和巩固与中国的经济联系,以及在投资区位选择上,除东部之外将继续扩大在中部和西部的投资。     

HR外包服务商在劳动关系中的功能研究

激烈的产品市场竞争和波动性的劳动力市场供求关系,推动着企业在不断调整其人力资源获取和管理中的制度选择。HR外包服务商为企业降低用工成本,提升组织柔性提供了必要的外部支持[1]。本研究分析了具有不同组织特征的HR外包服务商对客户企业内部劳动关系的影响作用,同时比较了外包商与工会和企业的HR部门在劳动关系中的功能差异;其研究结论反映了HR外包商在企业劳动关系发展中的功能定位,从而为人才外包服务产业的可持续发展指出了方向。     

政府在老年产业发展中的作用研究

当老年产业受制于市场的不成熟、不完善而无法顺利形成良性互动式发展趋势时,由政府介入解开市场与企业间的“死结”就成为一种必然的要求。政府应针对不同性质的领域采取不同的对策。对老年产业竞争性领域的政府对策和非竞争性领域的政府对策问题作了分类研究,并着重对老年产业竞争性领域提出了发展思路和可以采取的具体对策措施。     

Why exporting countries agree to voluntary export restraints: the oligopolistic power of the foreign supplier

This paper studies the impact of VER on an exporting country. It shows that a VER at the free‐trade level favours the concentration of industry, allows firms with an export licence to expand, causes the contraction of the size of the firms producing for the domestic market only, and raises the price mark‐up in the domestic market. The impact on welfare is indeterminate depending upon the effect on global efficiency. If a VER is binding, also the price mark‐up in the foreign market rises and this effect on terms of trade, ceteris paribus, is welfare improving. An applied general equilibrium model for Turkey supports the conjecture that with a VER the increased oligopolistic power of incumbent firms with an export licence, the higher price mark‐up in the domestic market and a possible social welfare gain, are the key elements in understanding the rationale behind VERs. However, if authorities induce firms to engage in unproductive profit‐seeking activities, rent dissipation occurs and the impact on social welfare becomes negative.     

软件产业国际化经营：印度经验与启示

文章首先分析印度软件产业国际化经营的路径、进程和基本策略，然后对印度软件产业的国际化经营能力进行实证分析。实证分析发现，软件产业外包指数的大小和软件市场集中度的高低，对印度软件产业的国际化经营能力有显著影响。最后是印度软件产业的发展经验给我国的启示。     

Primary market and aftermarket competition in the bicycle component industry

This study examines the bicycle component industry. This industry is characterized by one dominant firm, Shimano Inc., and four or five smaller players. Firms in the component industry produce components for sale in two related markets, the market for original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and the component aftermarket. A unique data set containing information on aftermarket prices and OEM market shares is used to determine whether or not market power in the aftermarket is a function of OEM market power. The results indicate that concentration in the OEM market is positively related to aftermarket price, while an individual firm's OEM market share is inversely related to aftermarket price.     

Forecasting the diffusion of photovoltaic systems in southern Europe : A learning curve approach

Most analysts disagree upon whether photovoltaic systems (PV) will be able to play an important role in the energy scenarios of the future. A few scholars also question the appropriateness of policies that envisage the use of public subsidies to stimulate the growth of this industry and to accelerate market penetration. This paper contributes to this debate by examining whether carefully designed policies may initiate a process of large-scale diffusion of grid-connected PV, even without the deployment of external subsidies. Building upon a disaggregated characterization of the electricity market, it takes endogenously into account the learning curve phenomenon and simulates the diffusion of PV building-integrated systems in five European countries. The analysis is restricted to crystalline silicon systems and is repeated under four different macroeconomic scenarios corresponding to four different energy policies. The results suggest that already today there are opportunities for PV diffusion in many islands of the Mediterranean region, which may trigger sufficient scale economies to render the technology competitive in larger markets. They also show that the diffusion process could be accelerated through the implementation of carbon-tax policies that support initial penetration. The environmental benefits (net avoided CO₂ emissions over the system life cycle) associated with the forecasted penetration are also evaluated.     

The Impact of a Goods and Services Tax on Product Market Competition

This paper explores the effects of a goods and services tax on the degree of competition in an oligopolistic industry and identifies a new mechanism through which the tax influences product market competition. The analysis focuses upon the effects of the tax in a concentrated industry and it is demonstrated that there exist circumstances under which the tax may promote competition by rendering tacit collusion more difficult.     

Adaptive economic growth

This paper develops an evolutionary theory of adaptive growth,understood as a product of structural change and economic self-transformation,based upon processes that are closely connected with but notreducible to the growth of knowledge. The dominant connectingtheme is enterprise, the innovative variations it generatesand the multiple connections between investment, innovation,demand and structural transformation in the market process.The paper explores the dependence of macroeconomic productivitygrowth on the diversity of technical progress functions andincome elasticities of demand at the industry level, and theresolution of this diversity into patterns of economic changethrough market processes. It is shown how industry growth ratesare constrained by higher-order processes of emergence thatconvert an ensemble of industry growth rates into an aggregaterate of growth. The growth of productivity, output and employmentare determined mutually and endogenously, and their values dependon the variation in the primary causal influences in the system.     

Dynamic duopoly with learning through market experimentation

Summary This paper analyzes how learning behaviors can substantially modify the outcome of competition in an oligopolistic industry facing demand uncertainty. We consider the case of a symmetric duopoly game where firms have imperfect information about market demand and learn through observing the volume of their sales. The main body of the paper consists in showing how market experimentation can explain the existence ofprice-dispersion in an oligopolistic industry. We study this phenomenon and its dynamic evolution in the context of an Hotelling duopoly model; we then extend the analysis to general demand functions and toN-firm oligopolies. We discuss some implications of the public good aspect of information about market demand. We then conclude with a few comments on what happens when the value of information in the oligopolistic industry is negative.We are very grateful to Patrick Bolton for his helpful advice. We also wish to thank Richard Caves, Anthony Creane, Jean-Jacques Laffont, Andreu Mas-Colell, Eric Maskin, Jean-Charles Rochet, Margaret Slade, John Sutton, Jean Tirole, Mike Whinston and an anonymous referee.     

Cyclical dumping and correlated business cycles in imperfect markets: empirical applications to the Canadian pulp and paper industry

This paper deals with theoretical and empirical aspects of firm behaviour under imperfect competition and uncertainty. It contains an analysis of the behaviour of a firm facing a stochastic demand curve for its output in the ordinary (home market), but in addition with access to a backstop (international) market. The theory is thus a variation of the theory of dumping. Since the expected volume in general differs from the volume at the expected price, a price-setting mode is not equal to a quantity mode. Cyclical dumping, in the sense of a negative correlation between domestic and foreign sales, would occur if the firm adhered to a pricing mode in the ordinary market, and was able to learn about the demand conditions in the ordinary market before it decided how much to sell in the international market. The expirical part of the paper is an illustration of how to test for different behavioural modes and cyclical dumping by applying the model to the CAnadian pulp and paper industry. In the empirical exercise the domestic markets are the North American market for pulp and newsprint, while the backstop market are the corresponding European markets. One of the main results of this exercise is that the Canadian industry seems to operate under pricing behaviour for both pulp and newsprint, while cyclical dumping on the European market applies only for pulp.     

Strategic Environmental Policy, Clean Technologies and the Learning Curve

In the political discussion, it is often emphasized that the environmental service industry (which produces a clean factor of production) benefits from an early and strong environmental policy. This is especially likely if the costs of production are decreasing over time due to learning curve effects. Surprisingly, the environmental service industry has not been integrated into the theory of strategic environmental policy yet. Our main question is whether a national leadership in environmental policy can pay off if profits of the environmental service industry are taken into account. We consider a two-period model with one firm in each country competing on a third market. Emissions can be substituted by the clean factor when deciding upon the production technology. The unit costs of producing the clean factor in the second period are decreasing in the quantity produced in the initial period. We derive the optimal environmental policy for both periods from a national point of view and show that the presence of the environmental service industry can indeed lead to a national leadership in pollution control.     

当前发展高等教育产业需要正确把握的几个现实问题

发展高等教育产业的根本目的在于建立与社会主义市场经济相适应的高等教育体系，世纪初我国高等教育的超常规发展需要产业思想的内在动力，本从高等教育改革与发展的现实出发，提出了发展高等教育产业需要正确把握的五个问题。     

Optimal Taxation for Polluting Oligopolists with Endogenous Market Structure

This paper examines the optimal output taxes for polluting oligopolists under endogenous market structure, in the presence of external costs that vary exogenously with aggregate output. For general functional forms, we show that (i) the equilibrium number of firms in an industry may differ from the socially optimal number of firms and (ii) the second-best optimal taxes under imperfect competition could be less than, equal to, or greater than marginal external damages depending upon the curvature of market demand.     

颠覆性双元创新对数字产业技术融合的影响研究——市场与技术的联动效应

颠覆性创新是数字产业突破在位企业封锁,掌握技术主导权的核心动力。多维度的颠覆性创新政策能否真正促进数字产业技术融合度的提升,行业中其他企业又扮演何种角色？本文围绕技术与市场两个维度,基于数字产业中具有代表性智能制造业的研究数据,运用双元创新理论,探讨探索与利用两种颠覆性技术创新政策影响数字产业技术融合的异同,以及技术距离在其中的作用机制;并比较颠覆性技术双元和颠覆性市场双元之间不同的联动效应。采用逐步回归进行实证检验,研究发现：(1)颠覆性技术探索对技术融合度有显著的正向影响,且技术距离正向调节颠覆性技术探索与技术融合度间关系;(2)颠覆性技术利用与技术融合度呈倒U型关系,且技术距离正向调节颠覆性技术利用与技术融合度间关系;(3)不同的颠覆性技术创新和颠覆性市场创新联动关系对企业技术融合有着截然不同的影响,具体来说,在企业选定颠覆性技术探索战略的情境下,颠覆性市场双元对数字产业技术融合度不会产生明显的促进或抑制作用;在企业选定颠覆性技术利用战略的情境下,颠覆性市场探索对数字产业技术融合度表现出更为明显的促进作用。     

Explaining the Concentration-Profitability Paradox

This paper explains an empirical paradox which is often found, but generally ignored: a significant negative econometric relationship between profitability and market share concentration. The phenomenon can appear when there is a negative correlation between market share and costs—for example due to economies of scale. I show that concentration becomes an indicator for the cost competitiveness of direct rivals within an industry. Profitability of a given firm is undermined if price correlates positively with average industry costs (Classical natural prices) and frictions like sunk costs make an industry exit expensive for firms. This idea also explains the frequent findings of highly persistent profit rate differentials.