The Euro and Other Major Currencies Floating Against the U.S. Dollar

This paper discusses the interdependent effects of conditional volatilities in returns of the Euro and other major currencies against U.S. dollar exchange rates (spot rates) since the launch of the Euro, using, for this purpose, the daily data and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)–GARCH model with country-specific effects. The following conclusions are drawn: there are volatility spillovers (contemporaneous and lagged) in the Euro, Yen, and British pound, the degree of the correlation is high between the Euro and British pound against the U.S. dollar, there is a very strong association between the ECB Euro reference rate (fixing rates) and U.S.-traded spot rates, and finally, the impulse-response of volatility (after the accession of new Member States to the European Union) rapidly diminishes in the spot markets, indicating a short-run dynamic effect.     

美国垄断与反垄断:案例、趋势和借鉴

微观经济学证明,市场竞争机制能够导致效率最大化.一个完备的保护竞争的法律体系对市场机制的正常运转和经济的持续增长是必不可少的.当今世界上主要的发达国家都拥有自己的保护竞争法律体系,如美国的反托拉斯法、日本的反垄断法以及欧洲共同体的竞争政策.与货币政策、财政政策或其它间接调控经济的手段不同,反垄断法直接影响到企业的组织和行为.由于美国是世界上实施反垄断法最严厉的国家,反垄断法的条例也最完善,因此,本文主要分析美国反托拉斯法的主要内容及最新发展,探讨垄断与反垄断的趋势,指出对转型期中国的反垄断理论与法律研究的现实意义.     

美国“新重商主义”中的“出口垄断”探析——基于对中美文化贸易冲突的考察

重商主义作为一种思想学说和经济政策,对后世影响深远。随着金融危机的不断深化,美国的"新重商主义"也有抬头的趋势。近年来中美文化贸易领域的摩擦,就是美国"新重商主义"中的"出口垄断"的集中体现。文化产业的不断发展和文化贸易的强势竞争力是其推行"出口垄断"的现实基础;完善的知识产权体系和双边、多边贸易体制是其制度保障;通过输出美国的文化价值观,实现"文化霸权主义",又是美国推行"出口垄断"的终极目的。     

The Future of U.S. Capitalism

In this work, Frederic Pryor tries to predict the future of U.S. capitalism through the year 2050. His laboriously constructed arguments, spread out over perhaps too many pages, offer the reader a decidedly downbeat future. Using a model that relies on three main dimensions—degree of governmental influence, degree of economic competition, and degree of social solidarity—he concludes that declines in economic competition and social solidarity may lead to a future where an oligarchic market economy may well prevail. While there is much to agree with in this effort, Pryors discussion is disproportionably devoid of the topics that are generally associated with the success of capitalism—namely, the issues of private property ownership, the efficiency of the price system, the role of the entrepreneur, and the benefits of competition. He argues that if capitalism is to survive, then individual self-interest, as we know it, will have to be replaced by a more communal type of decision making—one where people make decisions on the basis of mutual best interest.     

日美金融危机的比较分析

1995年爆发的日本金融危机和2007年爆发的美国金融危机,是战后全球最严重的两次金融危机.这两次金融危机在产生的主要诱因、直接原因以及救助措施等方面,都表现出共同的特征;但在金融机构不良资产的结构、危机程度及其影响范围以及政府应对危机的反应速度和救助依据等方面,则有不同之处.中国应汲取日美金融危机的教训.防止经济陷入过度泡沫、保持人民币汇率稳定以及规范金融产品创新行为和加强金融监管.     

The Focus Efficiency of U.S. Hospitals

Hospital productivity has been a research topic for over two decades. Whereas much has been learned regarding cost, technical, scale, and allocative efficiency as well as the impact that weakly disposable inputs/outputs have on hospital behavior, we expand on this research by examining size and service offering, or focus, efficiency at the metropolitan area level for US hospitals. By using an extension of the Free Coordination Hull (FCH), we are able to determine whether hospitals in our sample could become more efficient if they provided more services (reduce inefficiency due to too narrow a focus) or fewer services (reduce inefficiency due to too broad a focus). Our results suggest that findings vary among the hospital markets. This approach could be used by policy makers and managers in order to reduce costs by sharing services, reducing services in hospitals, or expanding services in hospitals. Findings from a study such as this should aid reform programs by providing more information on the sources of hospital inefficiency.     

日美贸易摩擦中的美国“对日修正主义”研究

20世纪80年代中后期产生的日本异质论及美国"对日修正主义"是日美经贸摩擦延伸至体制领域的重要表现。它既是冷战结束前后国际政治格局变化和美国国内政治气候变迁的产物,又具有深刻的学术和舆论背景。美国"对日修正主义"者从资本主义发展模式的差异、日本政治经济体制及其相应政策手段的特殊性、美国对日贸易策略等三个方面阐述了其理论观点,在美国舆论界、学术界和决策层中产生了巨大的影响。     

中美贸易对美国就业影响研究——基于美国制造业面板数据的分析

本文通过建立国际贸易对就业影响的理论模型,利用美国制造业面板数据分析中美贸易对美国就业的影响问题。实证结论表明,美国进口中国制成品对美国就业没有显著影响,也不是美国失业的Granger原因;美国制成品出口对增加美国就业虽有显著影响,但作用不大;影响美国国内就业的主要因素是实际工资、企业发展状况等实际因素。这些结论充分说明,美国的失业问题不是由美国进口中国制成品引起的,美国减少中国制成品进口也解决不了美国的失业问题。     

The U.S. savings gap and global imbalances

Summary In the 1980s the pattern of international savings flows changed dramatically and this is reflected in huge international imbalances in trade and finance and in the U.S. savings gap. Therefore, the U.S. has had to absorb hundreds of billions of savings from the rest of the world. For a variety of reasons, fiscal rather than monetary policy should eliminate the budget deficit thereby both solving the savings gap problem and creating a stable economic environment.Remarks before the 68th Annual Meeting of the Bankers Association for Foreign Trade, Boca Raton, Florida, Wednesday, May 2, 1990     

The recent failure of U.S. monetary policy

Summary The very slow growth of the broad money supply has been a primary source of U.S. economic weakness in 1990 through 1992. The velocity link between M2 and the subsequent level of nominal GDP has not declined. But changes in bank reserves brought about by open market operations have had much less effect onM2 than the Fed anticipated for two reasons: (1) reserve requirements now apply to only a small fraction of totalM2; and (2) the new bank capital requirements limit some banks ability to lend. The Federal Reserve failed to appreciate the importance of these conditions and misjudged the strength of the monetary policy stimulus that it was providing.Professor of Economics, Harvard University, and President of the National Bureau of Economic Research.Sixth Tinbergen Lecture delivered on October 2, 1992, in The Hague for the Royal Netherlands Economic Association.     

The welfare effects of U.S. antidumping duties

Antidumping duties are among the most frequently used nontariff barriers to trade. Despite this, empirical analysis of the welfare effects of antidumping duties has been very limited. This paper helps close this gap by computing the welfare effects of 30 U.S. antidumping duties. These effects are computed using a Dixit-Stiglitz type model of preferences in conjunction with data from the International Trade Commission. The paper finds that the import relief provided by antidumping duties is small in comparison to the losses imposed on U.S. consumers.     

Saving for retirement: The U.S. case

This paper discusses the personal saving behavior and the retirement behavior of households in the United States. It shows that a typical U.S. household owns virtually no financial savings even at ages approaching retirement. Most personal saving is in the form of housing equity, which, however, is not decumulated during retirement and thus cannot be counted on as retirement wealth. Saving for retirement is largely conducted by corporations and government through pension plans and Social Security. It also presents evidence indicating a relatively large impact on the Individual Retirement Account program on personal savings. The paper casts doubts on the applicability of the pure life-cycle saving hypothesis for the U.S. households. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1988, 2(4), pp. 385–416. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138; and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138.     

The gorbachev economic proposals and the U.S. economy

Invited address at the Twenty-Fourth Atlantic Economic Society Conference, September 3–5, 1987, New York, New York.     

The impact of a change in exchange rate pass-through on U.S. imports

The Impact of a Change in Exchange Rate Pass-Through on U.S. Imports. - One import demand equation is specified that is potentially affected by a breakdown in pass-through and one that is not. From the difference in the forecasts of these two equations an upper-bound estimate is derived for the impact on U. S. non-oil imports of the breakdown in exchange rate pass-through during the 1980s. The empir-ical evidence suggests that exchange rate pass-through may have changed after 1985. Without this shift in pass-through U. S. non-oil imports may have been a maximum of 15 percent lower by 1990.     

美国反腐 中国遇阻

贿赂案很复杂。行贿者承认做了,受贿方说“没有”,司法部怎么处理？美国CCI行贿案就遇到了这样的问题。虽然CCI已经承认行贿,但中方受贿嫌疑人却纷纷说没有。中国的特殊国情,很可能让美国国际反腐的努力功亏一篑     

The wedge and sigma convergence among U.S. states

The paper attempts to empirically quantify the factors underlying sigma convergence among the contiguous states of the U.S. Using annual state data the study finds a significant effect of the wedge in explaining the variation in state per capita productivity. Employing a time series framework, the paper finds that an increase in the variation of 1 percent in the wedge will increase the variation in per capita productivity by roughly 0.12 percent in the short run and roughly 0.45 to 0.55 percent in the long run.     

美国对华反倾销的统计分析

1980—2005年间,美国越来越重视对华反倾销措施的使用,美国对华反倾销案件涉及的行业比较集中,钢铁业、化工业和机电业这三个行业被诉次数最多,而涉及这三个行业的案件的裁定结果却存在着较大的差异。     

The Rise of Multiunit Firms in U.S. Manufacturing

The modern multiunit enterprise has been touted by historians and economic historians as a major and important phase of organizational change and a significant source of growth. However, most studies concerning this phenomenon have been based on a sample of the very largest enterprises. This article utilizes data on a complete sample of firms provided by the pioneering works of Thorp (1924) and Thorp et al. (1941) and the Census Bureau's Enterprise Statistics and other census sources to document and examine the rise of modern multiunit firms in U.S. manufacturing over the twentieth century. The analysis of the data suggests that the modern multiunit firm arose to take advantage of economies of marketing rather than those of scale and scope.     

美国次贷危机的传导机制

美国次贷危机根源于房地产市场繁荣背景下激进的住房抵押贷款行为,本质是由房价下跌和利率提升导致的信用危机引发的信贷紧缩和金融市场流动性缺失。文章以美国次贷危机的传导基础为切入点,利用金融危机传导模型来分析美国次贷危机的传导机制。在其传导过程中,美国次贷危机形成了从信贷市场到资本市场、从资本市场到信贷市场、从金融市场到实体经济和从国内市场到国际市场的传导路径。在金融全球化的背景下,美国次贷危机通过金融市场和实体经济传导到全球市场,并对全球经济发展造成不确定性影响。