An Austrian view of expectations and business cycles

Austrian economists have contributed several important concepts to business cycle theory including: inter-temporal coordination of production and consumption, heterogeneous specificity of capital, non-neutrality of money, and the capital structure of production. Noticeably lacking, however, is a clear theory of expectations. Recent Austrian responses to rational expectations critiques—such as positing a prisoner’s dilemma, heterogeneous entrepreneurs, and adverse selection—try to fill this gap. But much work remains to be done developing an Austrian theory of expectations, one where they are endogenous to the market process and market institutions. This paper explores how people adapt their expectations to changing market phenomena based upon their perceived costs and benefits of doing so. It then applies endogenous expectations to the 2008 financial crisis.     

The Austrian School of Economics: A view from London

The Review of Austrian Economics - This paper explores the intellectual context of the Department of Economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) during the 1930s. We...     

The Austrian theory of the firm: Retrospect and prospect

Using as a focusing device the famous arguments of Coase (Economica 4(16), 386–405 1937) and Hayek (The American Economic Review 35(4): 519–530 1945), I sketch in bold strokes what an Austrian theory of the firm would look like. Such a theory would pay serious attention to issues of knowledge, uncertainty, change, and complementarity. I describe a literature in which much of this theory has already been constructed; make connections to closely related literatures in economics and management; and suggest directions for future development.     

Blockchain and investment: An Austrian approach

The Review of Austrian Economics - Investment is a function of expected profit, which involves calculation of the cost of trust. Blockchain technology is a new institutional technology (Davidson et...     

Austrian theories of entrepreneurship: Insights from complexity theory

This paper examines various Austrian theories of entrepreneurship through the lens of complexity theory, more specifically via the concept of a dancing fitness landscape. Problems in many fields (including economics) can be characterized as attempting to find the highest peak on a fitness landscape (which corresponds to an efficient or optimal resource allocation). A rugged fitness landscape is one characterized by many peaks and troughs, while a dancing fitness landscape is one where the peaks and troughs change over time due either to exogenous or endogenous activity. I argue that several key disagreements among Austrian economists can be better understood through the metaphor of a fitness landscape. The implications of this insight for various branches of Austrian economics are also considered. This study is timely as radical Austrian views are starting to percolate into business schools leading to increased debate among management scholars about the precise nature of the entrepreneurial process (Chiles et al. 2007; Sarasvathy and Dew 2008; Alvarez et al. 2010).     

Value and capital: Austrian capital theory,retrospect and Prospect

The time is right for a reexamination of Austrian capital-theory. We attempt to capture the essence of Carl Menger’s approach to capital, highlighting the important distinction between goods and the valuable services they yield (implying that goods are valuable only because they yield valuable services) and highlighting also the importance of money in facilitating exchange and production and in providing the means to value them. We look at the capital-theory of Böhm-Bawerk and suggest that, in many respects, this was a wrong turn, although it did set in motion valuable efforts to clarify the importance of the heterogeneity of productive-resources and their growing complexity over time. We examine the production-function, micro and macro, and show that it is logically untenable and useless as an instrument for empirical investigation, and that this has been known for decades. Of the Austrians after Menger, only Mises followed Irving Fisher in focusing on valuation. He did so in the context of explaining the importance of calculation. Mises’s approach to capital has been insufficiently understood and appreciated. By way of conclusion we draw from our considerations to provide a research agenda in Austrian capital theory.     

An Austrian business cycle parable: An educational note

This paper presents a short narrative example intended for use in teaching the Austrian Business Cycle Theory, meant to complement theoretical presentations by presenting an idealized account of an individual entrepreneur operating over time and responding to various possible evolutions of the interest rate. In particular, the similarity from the point of view of the entrepreneur between a reduction in the interest rate due to an increase in consumer saving and a similar reduction due to monetary policy is emphasized. Along with the narrative itself, we discuss the motivating version of the Austrian Business Cycle behind the narrative, as well as offer commentary as explanation for the particular choices made in its construction.     

The economics of immigration: An Austrian contribution

Any managed migration system will fail to achieve the optimal quantity or mix of immigrants because centrally planning the international labor market suffers from the same epistemic problems that make it impossible to optimally plan any market. In response to the artificial relative price structure, imposed by managed migration systems, the domestic stock of human and physical capital becomes distorted. Managed migration systems also set in motion the dynamics of intervention that lead to further interventions into the economy.     

Earnings,social security legislation and retirement decisions: the Austrian experience

This paper analyses the labour supply behaviour of elderly males in Austria and asks how far it is determined by the characteristics of the Austrian Social Security System. This is of particular interest because old age insurance in Austria is dominated by the public pension plan, so that private pension plans are of minor importance. I argue that from a theoretical point of view the actuarial unfairness of the insurance plan creates a strong incentive to withdraw from the labour force at the minimum retirement age. Secondly, the rising earnings replacement ratio might be responsible for the decreasing average retirement age. These hypotheses are tested empirically. A pooled time-series cross-sections labour force participation model is estimated for single birth year cohorts of elderly males. I find strong evidence for the proposition, that the age-participation pattern might be determined by the incentives created by social security and that the decrease in labour force participation rates over time may be due to the rising earnings replacement ratio. Remaining differences in labour force participation of elderly males may be attributable to cohort population size and to a long run trend.     

The recession of 1990: An Austrian explanation

Conclusion Deficit spending and money-supply expansion do not eliminate recessions. Theycause recessions. This fact will never be understood unless economists and government policymakers stop trying to micro-manage the economy, and start studying what their actions are doing to the structure of production. Heavy inflation of the money supply followed by sharp cutbacks change the rules right in the middle of the game for millions of businesses in the economy. For the last 40 years, government expansionary policies have stimulated industries to create false and untenable investments. These policies are followed by government corrective actions that destroy those same projects—waste the billions of dollars invested in them, and throw millions out of work. Business cycles are not an essential feature of market capitalism. They are the result of government interference with the market. In the misdirection of labor and the distortion of the structure of production during past business cycles, it was fairly easy to point to the places where the excessive expansion had occurred because it was, on the whole, confined to the capital goods industries... In contrast, the present expansion of money, which has been brought about partly by means of bank credit expansion and partly through budget deficits, has been the result of a deliberate policy, and has gone through somewhat different channels... I do not doubt that in a sense we have today the same kind of phenomenon, but the over-expansion, the undue increase of labor employed in particular occupations, is not confined to a single, clearly defined block such as the capital-goods industries. It is now spread much more widely, and the distribution is much more difficult to describe. It is a field I would wish some statistically minded economist would investigate in order to show how the process operated in particular countries. Friedrich A. Hayek     

Impact of institutions on social network formation: communist party membership and social network investment in China

Using the 2003 wave of China General Social Survey (2003CGSS), we study the influence of the communist party on individual’s social networks in urban China and, thereby, present a case of socio-political institutions being an important ingredient in social network formation. We adopt a counterfactual framework and estimate the effect of communist party membership on social network investment as an average treatment effect. We find the treatment to be significant.     

Signaling in social network and social capital formation

This paper presents a model of social capital and social network formation. The key interaction within the model is that whom an individual chooses to become friends with affects the value (social capital) of the friendship. In the model, how a player searches for and then forms friendships reveals how willing she is to engage in cooperation with a potential friend. Individuals observe their local network structure (friends and cliques) and the actions of players within these. Willingness to cooperate is private information and is captured by the discount factor of an individual. Cooperative types have high discount factors and can signal their type by forming a clique through befriending a friend of a friend. Uncooperative types do not form these kinds of friendships because of the local observability of their actions to all members of a clique. Thus, when a player meets someone with whom she shares a friend, her belief that the individual has a high discount factor is greater than the population average. In this sense, people “trust” each other more when they share a friend in common. Finally, I relate the primitives of the model to characteristics of the implied social network by nesting the sequential equilibrium in an algorithm of network formation proposed by Jackson and Rogers (Am Econ Rev 97(3):890–915, 2007). The model highlights a trade-off between maximizing the total amount of social capital in a society and distributing it equitably across individuals.     

The unresolved problem of gratuitous credit in Austrian banking theory

Ludwig von Mises called gratuitous credit, the ability banks have to create new credit, the chief problem in a theory of banking. This paper traces how Mises and succeeding generations of Austrian-school economists have grappled with this problem, but have failed to find resolution. The result is that Austrian economists disagree on a variety of issues in banking and business cycle theory, such as whether there is an endogenous business cycle under free banking, or cycles only occur under central banking. Before a resolution can be attempted, current thinking must be clarified. This paper divides Austrian economists into five schools of thought. It points to a possible resolution in the economic development writings of Joseph Schumpeter.     

Fiscal Autonomy and Total Government Expenditure: An Austrian Case-study

The ongoing debate on the efficiency of a federal system versus a centralized system has lead to a diverse and unclear empirical picture of the effects of fiscal decentralization on public sector growth. For analyzing these effects it is crucial to consider the sub-national decision power on taxing and spending. In the current paper, we test for the effects of fiscal autonomy on total government expenditure using time series from 1955 to 2007 for Austria. Determinants of government expenditure are economic growth, fiscal illusion of policy makers, and the unemployment rate. We additionally account for different degrees of sub-national fiscal autonomy. Our econometric results suggest that the often-hypothesized dampening effects of fiscal autonomy cannot be corroborated for the Austrian system.     

Microfoundations and Macroeconomics: An Austrian Perspective by Steven Horwitz

The Review of Austrian Economics -