Decision-analytic refinements of the precautionary principle

In public decision making about uncertain technological hazards, the precautionary principle calls for prompt protective action rather than delay of protections until scientific uncertainty is resolved. The precautionary principle has a sound basis in decision theory, particularly in situations where the potential hazards are serious and the costs of protective actions are tolerable. This article suggests that the precautionary principle should be refined to address three complications: (1) situations where the exposures to be reduced or prevented may have beneficial as well as hazardous consequences; (2) situations where the protective action itself will create potential hazards; and (3) situations where targeted research investments, coupled with delay of protective action, are likely to support wiser public decisions than prompt protective action. Each of these complications is shown to be relevant to contemporary policy debates about application of the precautionary principle. The usefulness of the precautionary principle in public decision making will be enhanced if these decision-analytic refinements are adopted in formal definitions of the principle.     

保险会计新准则对非寿险业的影响

保险会计新准则的变化主要体现在保费收入确认和准备金计量两个方面。由于绝大多数非寿险产品都能通过重大保险风险测试,保费收入几乎没有变化,因此新准则对非寿险业的影响主要体现在准备金计量上。新准则要求非寿险公司运用"三要素法"计量准备金,这将使得非寿险公司的准备金计量方式、财务管理模式和利润情况发生重大变化,对非寿险公司产生近期与远期的深远影响。     

Cost-benefit analysis of electron beam CT as a life insurance coronary disease risk assessment tool

Electron beam CT (EBCT) or ultrafast CT is a diagnostic imaging technique that can identify calcium deposits within coronary arteries. Intra-coronary calcium is associated with coronary artery atherosclerosis. EBCT imaging has been advocated as a "better" way to screen for coronary artery disease. By producing a measure of the amount of calcium present, it may provide a non-invasive risk assessment tool that can predict the risk of future coronary events and death. Medical literature concerning identification and assessment of coronary risk using EBCT in the clinical setting is reviewed. The primary purpose is to illustrate one approach to a simple "back of the envelope" cost-benefit analysis (protective value) comparing EBCT with exercise electrocardiography as a life insurance coronary disease risk assessment tool. The performance and results of this analysis are contingent on a number of critical assumptions that are outlined in the text. The analysis limitations, and the future research required to refine the results are reviewed. With optimum levels of EBCT test performance, favorable thresholds of test costs, and long-term mortality data useful for assessment of value preservation, EBCT might prove to be a valuable risk assessment tool from a cost-benefit perspective under certain circumstances. Answers to key clinical research questions from prospective studies in asymptomatic cohorts are essential for refinement of a cost-benefit estimate.     

Ankle/arm blood pressure index: an insurance perspective

Recent studies conclude that the ankle/arm blood pressure index (AAI) is a useful clinical tool for refining cardiovascular risk classification in the elderly. A reduction in the AAI to 0.9 or less is associated with increased risk for both coronary heart disease and total cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality, as well as all-cause mortality. This relationship persists after adjusting for traditional risk factors and known cardiovascular disease. AAI will appear more common in attending physician's statements, prompting a need to educate underwriters about this technology. AAI may be of particular interest to insurers dealing in the elderly market, to those with strong physician examiner systems, and in markets where blood or urine tests are not commonly used in underwriting.     

Insurance Considering a New Stochastic Model for the Discount Factor

In many empirical situations (e.g.: Libor), the rate of interest will remain fixed at a certain level (random instantaneous rate i i ) for a random period of time ( t i ) until a new random rate should be considered, i i + 1 , that will remain for t i + 1 , waiting time until the next change in the rate of interest. Three models were developed using the approach cited above for random rate of interest and random waiting times between changes in the rate of interest. Using easy integral transforms (Laplace & Fourier) we will be able to calculate the moments of the probability function of the discount factor, V ( t ), and even its c.d.f. The approach will also be extended to the calculation of the expected value (net premium) and variance of a term insurance and we will get its c.d.f., something not very common in actuarial literature due to its complexity, but very useful when the law of large numbers cannot be applied and consequently use normal approximations.     

Decision Usefulness of Cash and Accrual Information: Public Sector Managers’ Perceptions

This study examines the usefulness of accrual accounting information for internal decision‐making contexts in the Western Australian public sector. Based on questionnaire responses of public sector managers, it was found that accrual accounting is perceived to be more useful than cash accounting in 16 of the 19 decision situations. These results suggest that the perceived usefulness of the accrual accounting system has improved with the passage of time. It may well be that perceptions of the usefulness of information derived from an accounting system will change over time as users gain familiarity and experience with a system.     

From authenticity to significance: Tourism on the frontier of culture and place

The tourism of the future will include greater demand on the part of citizens of economically emerging nations, as well as on the part of a growing number of retirement age persons in many of the more developed countries. There are important environmental, cultural, and social consequences associated with these demographic shifts. Trendsetters for the tourism of the near future are likely to be well-educated elites who are familiar with travel and comfortable in culturally diverse situations. They will have an understanding of the consequences of global economic development, and will better realize that their participation in tourism comes with a cost to communities and environments through which they pass. They will see value in tourism experiences that support principles of environmental sustainability, heritage preservation and cultural diversity, and human equality. This generation of tourists will have greater choice of travel venues and access to considerably more information on which to base their travel plans, and they will be more likely to expect travel experiences that have breadth as well as depth and that provide opportunities for self-improvement as well as leisure and entertainment.     

Screening potential elderly preferred markers: exploratory analysis of Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) data

The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) analyzes risk factors for coronary heart disease and stroke in people age 65 and older. Since CHS is designed to comprehensively study cardiovascular risk factors in an elderly population, it provides a unique opportunity to study the association of risk factors with mortality, as well as morbidity risk. With the growth of the elderly as population and life insurance market segments, the need to more precisely stratify mortality within a standard risk group of the elderly has grown as well. This exploratory analysis assesses medical factors that could be used to improve mortality risk stratification within a "standard" mortality population, using the CHS public use data set. Participants with a personal history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or major electrocardiographic abnormalities were excluded from the analysis in order to mimic a standard life insurance selection process. Then, Cox proportional hazards regression was used to study 10 medical risk factors. This model suggested that forced vital capacity >80% predicted, serum creatinine <1.5 mg/dL (133 mcmol/L), hemoglobin >11 g/dL (110 g/L), and serum albumin >3.5 mg/L (35 mmol/ L) are significantly associated (p = 0.05) with favorable mortality. C-reactive protein <1 mg/L is associated with favorable mortality at borderline significance levels (p = 0.09). On the other hand, a family history of cardiovascular disease (MI and/or stroke) and low BMI (<26 kg/m2) are associated with unfavorable mortality in the analysis. Total to HDL cholesterol ratio of <6, presence of supine systolic blood pressure < or = 140 mmHg, and the presence of minor rest electrocardiographic findings were not statistically significant factors in the multivariate model. Further assessment of the predictive value of the "significant" medical factors identified is required in insured lives.     

Risk invariant linear estimation

Abstract

We show how to construct risk invariant (equalizer) linear estimators in credibility models, when the variance components are unknown but constrained by linear equations. Risk invariant linear estimators will often be minimax and admissible. They are useful in situations with unidentifiable variance components, but may also be used when reliable estimates of the variance components are not available.     

Employment and innovation in advanced communication technologies: Strategies for growth and the growth of employment

If recent political interest and media hype is to be believed, the ‘information society’ is at last upon us, and could signal the end of work as we know it. But what evidence is there of how these new information highways will change work? In this article, based on recent case-study research, a set of messages about how organizations are applying and responding to the new advanced communication technologies are presented. First, innovation was most successful where managers sought to mobilize the new potential of these technologies, rather than implementing rationalization and retrenchment. Second, in order to reap these benefits, it was necessary to adapt organizationally as well as to adopt the technology. Third, one innovation strategy is not good for all situations: the way forward is dependent on the current situation of the organization, rather than on general principles.     

Failing by design

It's hardly news that business leaders work in increasingly uncertain environments, where failures are bound to be more common than successes. Yet if you ask executives how well, on a scale of one to 10, their organizations learn from failure, you'll often get a sheepish "Two-or maybe three" in response. Such organizations are missing a big opportunity: Failure may be inevitable but, if managed well, can be very useful. A certain amount of failure can help you keep your options open, find out what doesn't work, create the conditions to attract resources and attention, make room for new leaders, and develop intuition and skill. The key to reaping these benefits is to foster "intelligent failure" throughout your organization. McGrath describes several principles that can help you put intelligent failure to work. You should decide what success and failure would look like before you start a project. Document your initial assumptions, test and revise them as you go, and convert them into knowledge. Fail fast-the longer something takes, the less you'll learn-and fail cheaply, to contain your downside risk. Limit the number of uncertainties in new projects, and build a culture that tolerates, and sometimes even celebrates, failure. Finally, codify and share what you learn. These principles won't give you a means of avoiding all failures down the road-that's simply not realistic. They will help you use small losses to attain bigger wins over time.     

HOW RATIONAL INVESTORS DEAL WITH UNCERTAINTY (OR, REPORTS OF THE DEATH OF EFFICIENT MARKETS THEORY ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED)

Much academic research in finance in the past quarter century has been devoted to examining the proposition that corporate securities are priced by "rational" investors in an "efficient market." Stated most simply, the proposition says that the intensive pursuit of large returns by stock market investors ensures that, for the vast majority, only modest ones will be had. This argument, which has been refined and tested as the "efficient markets hypothesis" (EMH), could well be described as the foundation of modern financial theory.     

Writing accounting research for publication and impact

This paper suggests guidelines for writing accounting research papers that may be useful to accounting researchers who want to improve the chances that their work will be accepted by top journals and, if accepted, will have a significant impact on their field. The advice is illustrated mainly in the context of experimental research in audit judgment, but it is also applicable to other types of accounting research. Several guidelines for communicating the results of accounting research are offered, and these are broken down by the typical sections and subsections that are (or should be) included in well-written accounting research papers. While guidelines such as these cannot guarantee success (either in publication or impact), they nevertheless may provide a valuable framework for communicating and evaluating accounting research.     

Adopting commercial software in the accounting classroom: A focus on learning

Concerns about the current state of accounting education are well documented. A common anxiety is that students are not prepared to deal with the complex issues and unstructured problems that they will encounter throughout their professional lives. Recent studies conclude that an educational objective for accounting is to teach students how to learn. This paper discusses adopting commercial-use software as an approach to accomplish this objective. The paper also provides an example for an accounting information systems class. Because “learning to learn” involves teaching students learning strategies, accounting educators need to find new ways to help students acquire these strategies. This paper will be useful for instructors seeking ways to assist students in developing strategies for learning that will better prepare them for careers in a complex and dynamic environment.     

Designing a bridge program for internationally educated accountants in an era of resource constraints

Internationally educated professionals (IEPs) encounter significant barriers to entry to their professions upon immigrating. Obtaining education in the new country is an effective means of improving their positions. While universities emphasize the need to attract and serve adult learners and a more diverse clientele, the specific needs of immigrants are rarely reflected in institutional policies. I discuss our pilot program for internationally educated accountants (IEAs), its elements, and best practices. Our program was very successful, but may be beyond the reach of many universities due to financial or personnel constraints. I therefore include a cost/benefit framework to analyze each program feature. With this information, institutions may be able to partially implement a program, maximizing the benefit given their resources. Furthermore, some of the program elements could also be useful for international students, domestic students who will work alongside international colleagues, or domestic students who will work internationally themselves.     

运用Logistic回归模型加强高收入者纳税遵从的实证研究

加强高收入者的个人所得税征管、促进纳税遵从一直是税务部门的重要工作之一。利用多元有序因变量Logistic回归模型,以江苏某市2010年度年所得12万元以上个人所得税纳税申报的数据为样本,以＂应补税额＂等级的五分类有序变量为因变量,以纳税申报表中纳税人的年龄、应纳税所得额、应纳税额、性别、职业大类、行业大类6个影响因素为自变量,进行多元有序因变量的Logistic回归分析,研究结果可为税务系统加强年所得12万元以上高收入者个人所得税的申报与征管、促进纳税遵从提供新的思路。     

C-reactive protein--a screening test for coronary disease?

C-reactive protein (CRP) is one of a number of substances termed "acute phase reactants," biologic substances that appear in the circulation when an active inflammatory process occurs. Although traditionally used to monitor or detect major infectious or inflammatory conditions, elevations of CRP levels within the conventional range of "normals" has been intensively studied as a marker for coronary disease and risk of future coronary events. Sensitive assays that can be performed on a high-volume, commercial basis are now available. CRP appears to be a valuable marker for the prediction of future events in individuals who have known coronary artery disease. CRP has been proposed as a coronary disease-screening test for healthy individuals; however, available data suggest that use of CRP in this context may be premature. This paper reviews published research concerning CRP and the prediction of cardiovascular and total mortality risk, then outlines the current "state of the art" for the application of CRP to the risk assessment process.     

The founder's dilemma

Why do people start businesses? For the money and the chance to control their own companies, certainly. But new research from Harvard Business School professor Wasserman shows that those goals are largely incompatible. The author's studies indicate that a founder who gives up more equity to attract cofounders, new hires, and investors builds a more valuable company than one who parts with less equity. More often than not, however, those superior returns come from replacing the founder with a professional CEO more experienced with the needs of a growing company. This fundamental tension requires founders to make "rich" versus "king" trade-offs to maximize either their wealth or their control over the company. Founders seeking to remain in control (as John Gabbert of the furniture retailer Room & Board has done) would do well to restrict themselves to businesses where large amounts of capital aren't required and where they already have the skills and contacts they need. They may also want to wait until late in their careers, after they have developed broader management skills, before setting up shop. Entrepreneurs who focus on wealth, such as Jim Triandiflou, who founded Ockham Technologies, can make the leap sooner because they won't mind taking money from investors or depending on executives to manage their ventures. Such founders will often bring in new CEOs themselves and be more likely to work with their boards to develop new, post-succession roles for themselves. Choosing between money and power allows entrepreneurs to come to grips with what success means to them. Founders who want to manage empires will not believe they are successes if they lose control, even if they end up rich. Conversely, founders who understand that their goal is to amass wealth will not view themselves as failures when they step down from the top job.     

Anforderungen an eine gerechte und funktionsfähige Alterssicherung

The German pension reform 2001 neglected important structural aspects. Relatively the number of recipients of pensions will increase, the number of payers of contributions will decrease. This generates considerable difficulties in a pay-as-you-go-system as well as in a funded system. For the diffusion of risk the extension of funded elements will be useful, the sustainability of the solutions is not sure, however. Changes in employment and families were mostly neglected. Modifications of the employment system require an extension of compulsory insurance and new rules for low earned incomes. The increasing number of divorces and the decrease in the number of children require an independent security for man and woman and new rules for the acknowledgement of the education of children in old age security.     

美国财政和货币政策的困境与出路

本文分析了美国财政和货币政策的局限和困境,并探讨了其政策出路。本文突破了财政政策对私有部门挤出效应的传统分析方法,采用宽松货币和财政政策的交互作用,从更广泛视角分析政府政策的挤出效应;以个人和企业资产负债表在不同时期的状态及调整为框架,并突破货币政策分析将利息作为负债成本的传统方法,将利息也作为资产收益评估政策效果;运用这一框架,并采用"核心GDP"作为经济增长质量和可持续性的指标,分析美国最近财政和货币政策的局限和出路。