银行远期结售汇业务发展中的隐忧

人民币汇率形成机制改革后，远期结售汇市场快速发展，但同时也出现了一些不容忽视的新情况、新问题，如远期售汇量大大高于远期结汇量、远期结售汇业务发展不平衡，市场参与度低，远期结售汇价格偏离实际汇价水平的程度较高等。     

认识人民币远期结售汇业务

在中国加大WTO之际，人民币的汇率走势格外引人关注。由于我国人民币汇率与美元挂钩，人民币兑其它货币的汇率是通过美元兑其它货币的汇率套算出来的，因此人民币汇率将随美元的波动而波动。央行货币政策最新公布的报告显示，受“9&;#183;11”恐怖袭击事件的影响，美国经济再次受到重创，今年三季度，美国经济出现了8年首次负增长。逐步走弱的美国经济决定了美元在国际汇市上的疲软态势，而人民币兑美元的汇率保持稳定时，人民币的“被动贬值”将难以避免，估计幅度在5％－10％之间。人民币的被动贬值，一方面有利于提高我国出口产品的价格竞争力；但另一方面，汇率的波动也会给外贸企业的进出口贸易带来汇庇风险。在这种情况下，人民币远期结售汇业必将再次成为自东南亚金融危机爆发以来，外贸企业用来规避汇率风险的重要手段。     

远期结售汇业务发展中存在的问题及建议

本文针对作为规避汇率风险主要工具之一的远期结售汇在经济欠发达地区遭遇冷落这一现象,分析影响远期结售汇业务的因素,并提出相关的政策建议.     

远期结售汇业务初探

目前我国外汇市场的广度和深度都存在一定局限性，而大力发展远期结售汇业务，能够促进远期外汇市场的形成，为完善外汇市场奠定基础，这是当前推进外汇体制改革和汇率制度改革重要一环。     

我国商业银行远期结售汇业务的发展现状及建议

自1997年以来,远期结售汇业务在我国经历了十余年的发展,尽管业务量呈增长趋势,但发展仍较为缓慢。究其原因,在目前的市场条件下,远期结售汇仍受到利率平价理论缺乏成立的基础、企业参与积极性不高、定价缺乏吸引力等制约因素的影响。随着人民币利率市场化进程的加快和商业银行国际业务量的进一步扩大,远期结售汇业务将迎来更大发展,本文对此提出了业务营销和风险管理方面的建议。     

稳步扩大远期结售汇业务试点

为完善结售汇制度，发展我国外汇市场．1997年1月l8日中国人民银行发布《远期结售汇业务暂行管理办法》。为适应我国对外开放和深化金融改革的需要，满足企业规避汇率风险的市场需求，进一步发展我国外汇市场，2004年10月13日国家外汇管理局发布了《关于扩大远期结售汇业务试点的通知》。     

关于远期结售汇业务和远期外汇交易情况的调查

远期结售汇和远期外汇交易业务自在吉林省开办以来，取得了较快的发展。为深入研究当前远期结售汇和远期外汇交易发展变化情况，特别是人民币汇率改革对其将要产生的影响等有关问题，近期我们对吉林省远期结售汇业务和远期外汇交易情况进行了调查研究。     

促进远期结售汇业务的健康发展

作为规避汇率波动风险的人民币远期结售汇业务，近年来发展迅猛，日益受到银行及外贸企业的重视。文章指出国际市场汇率波动程度、人民币升值预期及远期汇价贴水幅度是影响远期结售汇业务量的主要因素；分析了远期结售汇业务存在的问题，并就如何促进该项业务的健康发展提出了建议。     

个人购汇影响因素及风险防范研究

近年来个人购汇交易量持续增长,对个人购汇的影响因素、存在风险及防控措施进行研究,对于完善个人外汇管理、维护国际收支平衡具有重要意义。文章基于山东省个人购汇数据,深入分析了需求、政策和汇率三方面对个人购汇的影响效果,对当前个人外汇管理中的潜在风险和监管难点进行了阐述,并针对存在问题提出了进一步完善管理的政策建议。     

人民币对外汇期权业务发展现状及对策建议

2011年4月人民币对外汇期权业务的推出,标志着我国外汇市场已初步形成完整的基础类汇率衍生产品体系,为外汇市场的进一步创新发展奠定了基础。目前期权业务尚处于起步阶段,业务发展不够活跃,文章以湖北省为例,结合对辖内开办此项业务的金融机构的走访调研,试图分析期权业务发展现状的原因,并提出相关对策建议,以期促进期权业务的进一步发展。     

银行外汇资金来源与运用的操作现状及政策建议

银行外汇资金来源与运用涉及银行外汇业务的各个方面,尤其是银行的跨境外汇资金流动缺乏相应的监管和监测机制而导致货币政策和外汇管理政策效应的削弱。本文从银行外汇资金来源与运用角度,利用外汇现场检查中收集的数据和资料,对银行外汇资金来源与运用的现状、问题进行剖析并提出相应的政策建议。     

Central Bank Policy Paths and Market Forward Rates: A Simple Model

Increasingly many central banks announce likely paths for future policy rates. Recent experience suggests that market forward rates can differ substantially from those announced. Models commonly adopted in policy analysis ignore such differences. This paper studies a simple model that can capture deviations between announced paths and market forward rates. We detail the macroeconomic transmission of such deviations and show how the model can inform policy deliberations.     

Homemade equity offerings via dividend reinvestment and stock purchase plans

This paper investigates equity issuances through dividend reinvestment and stock purchase plans (DRSPPs). Using a unique sample collected from security registration filings, we show that firms can issue new shares through DRSPPs without using underwriters and consequently, save a large part of direct costs. This economical form of equity offering helps high dividend paying firms retain a substantial amount of cash flow from operations. With this innovative strategic practice of capital-raising, we provide direct evidence showing that the pecking order still drives firms' financing. Furthermore, equity offerings via DRSPPs can avoid negative stock market reactions around the issuance date.     

Equity market and the transmission channels of monetary policy: Before and after the zero lower bound

We examine the effectiveness of the interest rate channel and the credit channel of monetary policy before and after the zero lower bound (ZLB), using intraday stock returns. We construct a number of industry-specific and firm-specific indicators to capture the sensitivity of firms' demand to interest rates (interest rate channel) and firms' financial constraints (credit channel). We find that the transmission of monetary policy has shifted across both periods. Conventional monetary policy works through both the neoclassical interest rate channel and the credit channel, while unconventional policy is propagated primarily via the credit channel which became even more effective at the ZLB. Before the ZLB the transmission channels operate primarily through target rate shocks rather than forward guidance announcements, whereas both forward guidance and large scale asset purchases were equally important for the credit channel at the ZLB. We also find strong evidence that transmission channels are asymmetric depending on the state of the stock market (bull/bear, tighter/easier credit conditions, high/low volatility), and the type of policy surprises (positive/negative). Our findings are robust with respect to a number of model extensions and alternative specifications.     

Bank systemic risk: An analysis of the sovereign rating ceiling policy and rating downgrades

We investigate the impact that the sovereign ceiling policy has on financial stability. In the event of a sovereign rating downgrade, we find that the rating agencies' sovereign ceiling policy leads to a disproportionate downgrade of the most creditworthy financial institutions in the economy and results in increased systemic risk. This asymmetric variation in bank ratings also impairs equity growth that further exacerbates bank insolvency. Our results are robust to several matching techniques, such as propensity score matching and entropy balancing, falsification tests, subsample analyses, alternative empirical proxies and model specifications.     

Monetary policy and financial stability in a banking economy: Transmission mechanism and policy tradeoffs

The 2008 global financial crisis demonstrated that monetary policy and financial stability policy are more highly interrelated than previously thought. This paper analyzes the interactions between these policies using a non-linear overlapping-generations model with financial frictions in the form of banking financial intermediation. The paper embeds negative externalities due to contagion effects in physical investments which creates the need for financial stability policy. We show how the monetary policy transmission mechanism depends on financial stability policy tools as well as on regulatory and institutional constraints.We find policy tradeoffs in trying to accomplish both monetary and financial stability targets. The central bank must take these tradeoffs into account when selecting the tools in its policy toolbox. Another important finding is the interchangeability of price stability and financial stability policy tools.     

Patent pledge policy and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China

This study examines the influence of China’s patent pledge policy on the stability of stock prices for Chinese listed businesses. We find that when businesses use patent rights as collateral for loans, the probability of stock price crash increases. Additionally, this unfavorable effect is more pronounced in businesses with strong financial standing, excessive managerial confidence, and serious agency problems than in businesses with weak financial standing, non-excessive managerial confidence, and non-serious agency problems. Indeed, a mechanism analysis reveals that the patent pledge policy aggravates management’s excessive investment and contributes to stock price instability. Furthermore, the pledge financing process and corporate financing goals are not sufficiently transparent and lack internal and external supervision, due to the challenges associated with determining the value of patent rights, the lack of awareness of risk control in the pledge process, and the imperfections in pertinent policies and systems.