经济政策不确定性、环境管制与绿色创新

在宏观经济政策频繁变动和微观企业绿色化发展的情境下,企业绿色创新如何发展变化仍待深入探究。文章以2009—2019年中国制造业上市企业的相关数据为观测对象,实证检验经济政策不确定性对制造企业绿色创新的作用。研究发现：经济政策不确定性对绿色创新呈现“倒U”型影响,并且存在行业异质性,具体表现为其非线性关系在资本、技术密集型行业中显著,而在资源、劳动密集型行业中不显著;相较于非正式环境管制,正式环境管制强化了经济政策不确定性与绿色创新的“倒U”型关系,使“倒U”型曲线更陡峭。研究结果为政府精准设计经济政策、有效施行环境政策以及为企业长远布局绿色创新方案提供实证经验支撑。     

基于面板数据的中国菲利普斯曲线再估计

本文阐释了产出缺口对通货膨胀影响的经济学机理,说明了中国时间序列菲利普斯曲线不存在的经济背景、模型设定和统计数据原因,提出利用省级面板数据对中国菲利普斯曲线进行再估计。1978—2006年的实证研究表明,基于面板数据的菲利普斯曲线是成立的：产出缺口对通货膨胀的线性影响显著,自发性通货膨胀率为2．8％,上期通货膨胀对本期的影响系数为0．44,产出缺口对通货膨胀影响的弹性系数为0．18。     

通货膨胀与收入不平等关系的研究——基于信贷市场不完美的视角

在修正的现金预付经济中,考虑信贷市场不完美因素后,本文从理论上预言了通货膨胀与收入不平等之间的正向关系,且这种正向关系在某些条件下是U形关系.模型预言存在一个“最优”通货膨胀率,使得该通货膨胀率不会加大收入不平等.模型的理论预言与大量实证研究文献是符合的.我们的模型可以解释基于时间序列和基于截面数据的不同实证研究研究结果存在差异的原因.     

通货膨胀、通货膨胀不确定性与中国实际产出增长

基于中国1993年1月至2010年12月的月度数据,本文采用双变量GARCH模型测量了中国通货膨胀不确定性,并借助于传统的Granger因果检验以及基于马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归(MS-VAR)模型下Granger因果检验等方法对通货膨胀、通货膨胀不确定性与中国实际产出增长进行了实证研究.本文研究发现:中国通货膨胀和通货膨胀不确定性之间存在着Granger意义上的双向因果性,在作用机制上支持了Okun-Friedman理论假说以及Holland论断;传统的Granger因果检验表明中国通货膨胀、通货膨胀不确定性对中国实际产出增长之间存在Granger意义上的因果性,但是基于MS-VAR模型的Granger因果检验研究则表明上述因果性仅存在于特定的机制下.     

通货膨胀目标错配与管理研究

本文以1979～2010年中国广义价格指标通货膨胀率与居民消费价格指数(CPI)通货膨胀率动态机制特征的显著差异为基础,运用不可观测成分随机波动模型测算和对比不同通货膨胀指标预期时序的动态路径,并应用反事实对比实验方法比较货币政策对不同通货膨胀指标动态特征转变的影响程度。结果显示,由于中国长期以CPI为单一通货膨胀目标,没有将广义价格指标通货膨胀率纳入政策决策的信息集,形成通货膨胀目标错配问题,从而导致近年来广义价格指标通货膨胀率持续走高,而且其波动性呈现显著上升态势。     

通货膨胀结构性分化与货币政策反应机制

本文将2001-2019年中国通货膨胀出现的结构性分化特征划分为核心-非核心和消费-非消费两个层次,研究货币政策对具有分化特征的不同通货膨胀指标的反应机制。价格型和数量型货币政策反应方程估计和模型竞争检验结果表明,对于消费领域内部的核心-非核心通货膨胀率分化,货币政策仅对核心(非食品)消费品通货膨胀率反应,对非核心(食品)类消费品通胀率不反应;对于消费类-非消费类通货膨胀率之间的分化,价格型目标仅对消费类通货膨胀率做出反应,数量型目标同时兼顾消费类和非消费类通货膨胀率。     

环境规制强度与工业企业生产技术进步之关系——基于门槛回归的实证研究

该文运用2003-2010年江苏省制造业分行业面板数据,利用非线性门槛回归模型,实证研究了环境规制强度和工业企业生产技术进步的门槛效应。结果表明：环境规制强度和生产技术进步之间既不是简单的线性关系,也不存在＂波特假说＂中的U型曲线关系,而是一种折线对应关系。当环境规制强度小于门槛值时,环境规制阻碍生产技术进步;当环境规制强度越过门槛值后,阻碍作用递减,但并未呈现正向促进作用。     

中国经济产出对通货膨胀的影响

本文研究1978到2018年中国通货膨胀率(用CPI衡量)与经济产出(GDP)之间的数据、用计量经济方法分析通货膨胀与经济产出之间的关系。验证经济真实产出与通货膨胀之间的内在因果关系。结果表明,经济的真实增长对通货膨胀有正的促进作用,这种作用不仅反映在当期上,而且还有滞后效应。本文通过理论和实证来验证这种经济关系。最后发现通货膨胀与自身预期与产出的增长率密切相关。     

巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说的实证检验--来自亚洲的证据

本文利用亚洲10个国家和地区面板数据检验了巴拉萨一萨缪尔森假说是否成立。实证分析所用的方法主要是面板单位根检验和面板协整检验。实证结果表明，该假说不成立。进一步地，本文对构成该假说的三个主要的假设进行了检验。结果表明，非贸易品的相对价格的变动并不能引起实际汇率水平的变动是该假说不成立的原因。     

“环境库兹涅茨"曲线存在么?——来自欠发达地区的证据

随着欠发达地区经济的快速发展,环境问题备受关注。文章基于平滑转换自回归理论,选取1992年至2012年欠发达地区三废排放和人均GDP的时间序列数据,通过非线性检验,建立平滑转换回归模型,进行变量的平稳性和非线性协整检验,采用较格点搜索更为简便的通用全局最优技术获得初始值,最后再通过非线性最小二乘估计得到参数估计值。对实证结果分析可知:以安徽省为例的欠发达地区三废排放与经济增长之间不存在倒U型假说,即不存在环境库兹涅茨曲线;二者之间存在一种机制转换关系,并求得转换的门槛值;进一步分析了造成门槛值不同的原因,并提出相关政策建议。     

Inflation and inflation uncertainty: The case of Cambodia,Lao PDR,and Vietnam

This paper studies the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Vietnam. Inflation uncertainty is estimated as the conditional variance in a family of generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. This paper finds that inflation causes inflation uncertainty in these countries, which supports the argument of Friedman (1977). Moreover, the analysis demonstrates that inflation uncertainty causes inflation only in Lao PDR, which implies that Cukierman and Meltzer's (1986) argument can be supported in Lao PDR. This paper also investigates how inflation in the United States is related to inflation and inflation uncertainty in Indochina countries. The result shows that inflation positively responds to US inflation only in Cambodia.     

Inflation and Market Uncertainty in South Africa

Comparison of the movements in the VIX index, the rand – dollar exchange rate and South African CPI inflation reveals a striking resemblance between them, raising the question as to whether or not there is an empirical relationship among them. The aim of this paper is to determine whether or not changes in market uncertainty, as reflected in the VIX index, influence South African inflation. Given that the VIX index reflects market uncertainty, its impact on the inflation rate may differ between times of heightened uncertainty and normality, thus suggesting the presence of multiple regimes. To cater for this possibility, the analysis first uses the general‐to‐specific procedure (including squared and cubed values of dependent and independent variables) with impulse indicator saturation dummies to look for non‐linear behaviour in the form of statistically significant squared and cubed variables and clustered periods of outlier dummies that might reflect an alternative regime. Finding such periods, the analysis next uses a Markov‐switching model to model this non‐linear behaviour explicitly. The results show that market volatility as measured by the VIX indeed explains South African inflation. Moreover, as shown by the second regime of the Markov‐switching model, when market volatility is elevated, its influence on inflation also increases.     

Inflation in South Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Inflation Models

We consider the relative empirical performance of a range of inflation models for South Africa. Model coverage is of Phillips curve, New Keynesian Phillips curve, monetarist and structural models of inflation. Our core findings are that the single most robust covariate of inflation is unit labour cost. We further decompose unit labour cost into changes in the nominal wage and real labour productivity. The principal association is a strong positive relationship between inflation and nominal wages, while improvements in real labour productivity report only a relatively weak negative association with inflation. Supply‐side shocks also consistently report an association with inflation. As to demand‐side shocks, the output gap does not return a robust statistical association with inflation. Instead, it is growth in the money supply and government expenditure which return robust and theoretically consistent associations with inflationary pressure.     

The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Emerging Market Economies

A standard Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (q,v) model is employed to construct a measure of monthly inflation uncertainty in 12 emerging market economies, and the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is examined using Granger-causality tests. The results suggest that higher inflation rates increased inflation uncertainty in all the economies, providing strong support for the Friedman hypothesis. The evidence on the effect of inflation uncertainty on average monthly inflation is more mixed, with increased inflation uncertainty leading to lower average inflation in Colombia, Israel, Mexico, and Turkey, consistent with the Holland hypothesis, but to higher average inflation in Hungary, Indonesia, and Korea, consistent with the hypothesis of Cukierman and Meltzer.     

Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies

This paper investigates the existence of a threshold level for inflation and how any such level affects the growth of Asian economies. We use a dynamic panel threshold growth regression, which allows for fixed effects and endogeneity. We observe a nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth for 32 Asian countries over the period 1980–2009. We detect an inflation threshold of approximately 5.43%, at a 1% level of significance. We find that inflation hurts growth when it exceeds 5.43% but has no effect below this level. Different estimation methods determine that the effect of inflation on growth is robust. Our findings may be useful to central banks as a guide for inflation targeting.     

Inflation,Inflation Uncertainty,and Relative Price Variability

This paper tests three models that predict a relationship between the variability of relative price changes (RPV) and aspects of inflation such as expected inflation, unexpected inflation, and inflation uncertainty. These are, respectively, the menu-costs model, the Lucas-Barro signal-extraction model, and the Hercowitz-Cukierman extension of the Lucas-Barro model that allows for different price elasticities of supply across markets. The results imply rejection of the hypothesis that any one of the models entirely explains the relationship between inflation and RPV and also imply rejection of the hypothesis that the three models together jointly explain the relationship.     

开放经济中的Lucas供给函数与通货膨胀倾向

文章首先在Lueas（1972,1973,1976）工作的基础上将Lucas供给函数扩展到了开放经济中。得到的一个主要结果是开放经济中的Lucas供给函数。作者利用这一函数以及Barro和Cordon（1988）框架重新考察了开放经济中的通货膨胀的动态不一致问题。在运用开放经济中的Lucas供给函数后。作者在开放与通货膨胀问题上得到了一个相比Romer（1993）等学者较为一般的。在解释实证结果上更加有力的结果。这一结果一方面证实了Romer等人证实的在不发达国家中存在的开放与通货膨胀之间的负相关关系。另一方面。该结论还说明了为什么在发达工业国家在实证上看不出同样的负相关关系。     

新兴市场经济国家通货膨胀与汇率制度选择

本文利用23个新兴市场经济国家20年间的面板数据,对汇率制度和通货膨胀的关系进行实证研究,对我国汇率改革实践进行了考察。从我国的实际情况看,汇率波动的幅度越大则通胀率均值越大,2005年实行管理浮动以来我国通胀率处于明显的上升趋势。我国应该限制人民币升值幅度,发挥汇率的"名义驻锚"的作用,以此遏制通胀的进一步发展。     

Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data

This paper uses the European Commission’s Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the euro in Europe. Consumers’ responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on past national inflation rates than on the ECB’s anchor for price stability. Inflation expectations do not converge significantly faster than actual inflation rates. Regarding inflation uncertainty, the data indicate a relationship with country size following the introduction of the euro. This suggests that within EMU, inflation uncertainty may increase in countries that have a smaller influence on ECB policy. JEL no.  D84, E31, E58