Introduction: Policy and prophecy in the Five-Year Outlook on Science and Technology

The efforts of the National Science Foundation to gather inputs to and commentary on the Five-Year Outlook are recounted. The respective roles of the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of Science and Technology Policy are discussed, as is the change in approach to the Outlook, and to science policy in general, between the Carter and Reagan administrations.     

The Five-Year Outlook as a policy document: Historical and comparative perspectives

The article reflects on the role played by policy analysis in the development of national science policies. Its thesis is that science policy, for coherence as a policy function and its impact on policy making, depends on analysis of goals, strategies, issues, and programs; policy crystallizes, to the extent it does, through the medium of policy analysis. First, a number of United States science policy reports prepared between 1945 and 1980 are reviewed. Next, recent science policy reports from predominantly western countries are examined. Taken together, these historical and comparative perspectives make it possible to appreciate the policy potential of future Five-Year Outlook reports.     

The Five-Year Outlook as metaphor for technology forecasting and social change

The National Science and Technology Policy Organization and Priorities Act of 1976, which mandated the Five-Year Outlook, is considered as a doctrine of anticipation to coalesce the federal bureaucracy in order to engage the future and to determine, as a community, its long-term priorities. The Outlook is thus a symbol of a broader process of managing technology to produce, over time, socially satisfactory outcomes that will not be squeezed out by short-term needs. The article argues that to transfer preparation of the Outlook back to OSTP would add immensely to the stature and influence of the report.     

关于我国“十一五”规划几个问题的思考

本文就“十一五”期间我国经济发展速度、收入分配差距与消费支出差距及扩大内需、生产要素的合理配置、次经济区域的划分、产业结构调整与布局等问题进行深入分析,并提出相应观点。     

Bare promises: An experiment

Is truth-value of a statement what lying aversion is all about? We propose an experimental test and find only limited support. In this context with ‘bare promises’, we also test for guilt aversion and again find only limited support.     

“十三五”时期海洋经济发展情况、问题与建议

海洋是高质量发展的战略要地。海洋经济的快速发展已成为带动东部地区率先发展、培育经济发展新动能、构建开放型经济的有力支撑。"十四五"时期是我国经济迈向高质量发展的重要时期,海洋经济发展应从科学利用与优化配置海洋资源、谋划构建现代海洋产业体系、提高海洋关键核心技术创新能力、高标准建设海洋生态文明、打造海洋经济对外开放新格局等方面综合施策,加快推进海洋强国建设。     

R&D投入强度控制线及我国“十一五”、“十二五”R&D投入分析

在"十二五"乃至以后的长时期内,R&D投入强度会成为比GDP增长更重要的问题。运用上述控制线原理,对我国"十一五"R&D投入强度偏低原因进行了深入分析,分清了原因和责任。在此基础上对"十二五"期间我国R&D投入目标进行了预测,为确保我国"十二五"R&D经费投入目标的实现提出了切实可行的对策。     

Vote buying and campaign promises

What explains the wide variation across countries in the use of vote buying and policy promises during election campaigns? We address this question, and account for a number of stylized facts and apparent anomalies regarding vote buying, using a model in which parties cannot fully commit to campaign promises. We find that high vote buying is associated with frequent reneging on campaign promises, strong electoral competition, and high policy rents. Frequent reneging and low party competence reduce campaign promises. If vote buying can be financed out of public resources, incumbents buy more votes and enjoy an electoral advantage, but they also promise more public goods. Vote buying has distributional consequences: voters targeted with vote buying pre-election may receive no government benefits post-election. The results point to obstacles to the democratic transition from clientelist to programmatic forms of electoral competition: parties may not benefit electorally from institutions that increase commitment.     

"十一五"时期需要重点解决的几个战略性问题

本世纪头20年是我国发展的重要战略机遇期,“十一五”时期尤为关键,是承前启后的重要时期。我们既处在经济社会发展新的更高起点上,也面临比过去任何一个五年计划更严峻的挑战。在这样的大背景下,充分发挥政府在发展规划方面的积极作用,具有非常重要的意义。“十一五”规划应坚     

Perspective on the second Outlook: The social and behavorial sciences

In the essays prepared by NAS for the first Outlook, current research in the natural sciences and technology were treated carefully and thoughtfully, but the social sciences were largely overlooked. To remedy this in the second Outlook, the Social Science Research Council was asked to prepare essays on the ways in which social science research can illuminate national problems or contribute to policy discussions. Six such essays describe continuing and developing research traditions on social problems such as aging and health.     

The quantitative turn in the history of economics: promises,perils and challenges

ABSTRACT

A quantitative turn in history of economic thought is looming. We argue that engineering it consciously is of crucial importance for historians of economics. We also highlight the limitations of quantitative techniques. Yet, the combination of qualitative and quantitative research could substantially enrich our narratives of the development of economics and its practice, of how ideas and tools disseminate and influence other spheres. A failed quantitative turn could lead our field to a house divided and, in the worst case, a civil war.     

宏观调控目标的“十一五”分析与“十二五”展望

本文旨在对我国"十一五"时期宏观经济调控目标的实现情况进行分析,对"十二五"时期的经济增长目标提出相应的政策建议和论证。全文共分四部分:首先,回顾"十一五"规划中有关宏观调控的指导原则和主要目标。其次,说明这些宏观调控目标的实现情况。再次,对"十二五"时期经济增长目标提出政策建议:在"十二五"规划中,经济增长目标的设定可有三种方法:一种是,仍沿用过去的习惯,把目标值设定得比较低;另一种是,可以设定目标区间,即以潜在经济增长率为基准的适度经济增长区间;再一种是,不是设定单一的五年固定不变的目标值,也不是笼统地设定一个目标区间,而是对未来五年中的各年设定不同的、可以反映经济波动趋势的目标值。最后,本文对这些政策建议进行具体的测算与分析。     

Building and rebuilding trust with promises and apologies

Using trust games, we study how promises and messages are used to build new trust where it did not previously exist and to rebuild damaged trust. In these games, trustees made non-binding promises of investment-contingent returns, then investors decided whether to invest, and finally trustees decided how much to return. After an unexpected second game was announced, but before it commenced, trustees could send a one-way message. This design allowed us to observe the endogenous emergence and natural distribution of trust-relevant behaviors and focus on naturally occurring remedial strategies used by promise-breakers and distrusted trustees, their effects on investors, and subsequent outcomes. In the first game 16.6% of trustees were distrusted and 18.8% of trusted trustees broke promises. Trustees distrusted in the first game used long messages and promises closer to equal splits to encourage trust in the second game. To restore damaged trust, promise-breakers used apologies and upgraded promises. On average, investments in each game paid off for investors and trustees, suggesting that effective use of cheap signals fosters profitable trust-based exchange in these economies.     

Functions and failures: how to manage technological promises for societal challenges

Technological promises are becoming part of the way in which scientific and technological communities try to attract the attention of stakeholders, aiming at legitimation, reputation, and funding. Not all promises, however, become reality. With the increase in the use of promises comes the risk of disillusion and cynicism, which may affect negatively policy-makers and the public opinion. The paper suggests that the introduction in the field of S&T and innovation policy of a tool commonly used in engineering fields aimed at identifying and measuring all possible failures of a proposed technology. Instead of focusing on the magnitude of promises, it suggests that a useful perspective can be gained by placing systematic attention to the negative side, i.e. all reasons why a given technology may fail to deliver the promises. The paper develops the methodology, presents a case study, and illustrates the benefits of using it in policy-making.     

对跨越式发展观的辩证思考

党的十六大报告提出的技术的跨越式发展,有其科学的本质内涵。理解跨越式发展观应至少从三方面把握:跨越式发展观所体现的最基本含义是缩短赶超时间;跨越式发展观的核心内容是利用信息技术提升工业化水平;跨越式发展的实现途径是多层次和非均衡的。     

科学发展观与发展问题的破解

我们过去的发展观存在着严重缺陷,以之为指导,我国的快速发展产生了资源环境危机和贫富差距拉大的问题,严重威胁着可持续发展。而科学发展观具有明显的优越性,实现了发展观的一个飞跃,为破解发展问题提供了科学的理论指导。     

创新型增长视角下的金融发展：综述及展望

传统经济增长理论分析框架下,金融系统只影响资本形成,并不创造社会财富,它对经济增长的作用只有水平效应而没有增长效应。新增长理论,尤其是熊彼特增长理论．突破了新古典增长理论关于技术进步的外生性假设,强调资本积累和创新是促进技术进步和经济增长的重要力量,这为研究金融体系对技术进步和经济增长的促进作用提供了全新视角。当前,中国金融发展现状与创新型增长要求之间存在一定程度的不相容性,需要在制度、政策和监管体系上不断完善与变革,逐步实现科技创新和金融发展的良性互动。     

资本市场的永恒主题:并购重组的回顾与展望

并购重组是资本市场的永恒主题.资本市场发展到一定阶段,增量相对放缓,存量则需要整合优化.并购重组以其创新的形式,促进企业强强联合、价值再造,成为企业快速发展的有效途径.资本市场的并购重组通过促进存量要素,在企业、区域甚至国家间流动,实现资源的有效配置,成为经济发展和社会进步的推进器.     

推行BOT、BT融资破解重庆市“十二五”期间公益性重点水利工程资金难题

由于项目收益性差,重庆市计划的“十二五”期间的公益性大中型水利工程建设面临着严重的资金困难,常规融资方式无法解决资金瓶颈,完成工程建设。但是,财政资金和土地储备收益会形成业主单位重庆市水投集团未来稳定的现金流,采用BOT和BT方式组织项目的投融资可以把未来的现金流提前到当期使用,解决当前的资金困难,保证水利工程顺利建设。