New Asian Regionalism: Evidence on the Impact Ofthe Asean +3 Free Trade Agreement on Its Member Countries

The emergence of new Asian regionalisms such as ASEAN+3 (10 ASEAN countries plus China, Korea and Japan) and other bilateral, plurilateral and multilateral free trade agreements in recent years requires research into these important developments and their underlying fundamental trade-growth causation. Popular existing methodologies such as the CGE/GTAP, gravity theory and panel regression (Dollar and Kraay, 2004) may be inappropriate due to their limited scope, heavily calibrated structure, cross-section data or non-simultaneity features (see also other criticisms in Productivity Commission Report, 2003). The paper extends the gravity theory to time-series data and applies a new flexible modelling approach to construct a simultaneous-equation model of trade and growth for the ASEAN and the East Asia 3. Using data from the World Bank national accounts and CHELEM regional and international trade over the period 1968–2000, the paper then estimates the model by both standard (OLS and 2SLS) and improved Stein-like (2SHI) estimation methods to provide superior MSE impact estimates. Implications of the findings for ASEAN+3’s economic integration, trade policy and prospects for trade and welfare improvement for this important regional FTA will also be discussed.

     

建立中国-东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应分析

在当今世界经济的发展中,区域经济一体化是战后世界经济发展的重要特征,也是当前世界经济发展的客观必然趋势。按照《中国-东盟全面经济合作框架协议》时间框架,中国-东盟自由贸易区于2010年1月1日全面建成。本文首先介绍了中国-东盟自由贸易区的发展状况;然后采用定性分析法,通过对建立中国-东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应分析,可以看出中国东盟的经济还有很大的发展空间,只要将贸易区内存在的问题处理妥当,中国一东盟自由贸易区在建成后将能发挥更大的潜力。     

提升我国纺织品贸易竞争力措施初探

纺织品贸易一直是我国对外贸易的强势行业,随着全球经济一体化进程的不断加快、世界纺织业格局的调整,使产业竞争加剧并趋于复杂化,提升我国纺织贸易竞争力已势在必行.分析影响我国纺织品贸易竞争力的各种因素,尝试从不同的角度提出相应的措施,是提升纺织品贸易竞争力的重要环节.     

基于消费风险分担模型的中国——东盟金融合作程度的实证分析

自中国-东盟自由贸易区建成以来,中国与东盟的经贸联系日益加强,金融合作也取得了实质性的进展。本文运用衡量金融合作程度的主要方法——消费风险分担模型,对中国与东盟国家1999年-2010年的相关数据进行实证分析,得出中国与东盟金融合作程度较低,尤其是资本市场一体化程度尚处于初级阶段的结论,并对其成因进行解析,以期能够为进一步加强彼此合作提供参考。     

参与一体化进程中东盟的外商直接投资流入及其影响因素分析

从自由贸易区计划启动到老成员建立自由贸易区,东盟成员的FDI流入基本上呈下降趋势,东盟自由贸易区建立对东盟成员的FDI流入没有显著的促进作用.影响东盟五国FDI流入的主要因素是人均国内生产总值、关税水平以及东道国投资环境.     

China's Exchange Rate and International Adjustment in Wages, Prices and Interest Rates: Japan Deja Vu?

China's fixed its exchange rate at 8.28 yuan to the dollar from1994 to July 2005, and has only allowed for a small appreciationsince then. China's productivity growth has been very high relativeto most other countries: its trade surplus has been rising andit continues to accumulate large dollar exchange reserves. Manyobservers, including high officials in the US government, takethis as per se evidence that the renminbi is undervalued. Tobalance China's international competitiveness and reduce itstrade surplus, they want the renminbi to appreciate much more.This common presumption of renminbi undervaluation is wrong,and its appreciation need not reduce China's trade surplus butwould cause serious deflation in China. To show this, we considerinternational adjustment between China and the US from bothan asset market and a labor market perspective, and comparethis to Japan's unsuccessful appreciation of the yen from 1971to 1995. During a time of economic catch-up and rapid financialtransformation, fixing the exchange rate is the preferred wayof anchoring the domestic price level. (JEL codes: F15, F31,F33)     

"三农问题"的缓解会降低中国的出口竞争力吗?

我国的出口竞争力主要来自于低廉的工资成本.依赖FDI和加工贸易的迅速增长,我国形成了低成本扩张的外向型经济增长模式.这种增长模式和"三农问题"存在紧密的内在联系."三农问题"的缓解,劳动者工资的提高,并不一定会降低我国的国际竞争力.从长期来看,转变这种不可持续的增长模式与解决"三农问题"应该而且能够协调互动.     

减免东盟农产品进口关税对中国宏观经济和产业影响的可计算一般均衡分析

Chingem模型是一个中国静态CGE模型.在Chingem模型的基础上,按照中国与东盟达成的"早期收获方案",模拟2006年减免东盟原六国农产品进口关税对中国宏观经济和产业的短期影响.研究表明,减免东盟六国农产品进口关税有利于我国经济增长,其中经济增长的动力来源于就业水平的提高;国内价格水平会下降,如CPI下降了0.11%;出口增长高于进口增长,贸易顺差有增加的趋势;促进了制造业的发展,其中纺织部门受益最大;羊毛部门受纺织业的拉动产出增长,而其它的农业和服务业部门影响轻微.     

发展低碳经济与提升我国制造业国际竞争力的关系

随着资源环境与经济发展的矛盾日益突出,21世纪人类正面临着经济发展方式的新变革,以低能耗、低物耗、低排放、低污染为特征的低碳经济是未来经济发展方式的新选择。近年来,我国制造业的发展面临诸多结构性问题,受经济资源、生态资源、社会资源和人力资源的约束越来越多,其国际竞争力亟需进一步提高。而发展低碳经济为提升我国制造业的国际竞争力提供了一次"良机"。通过实现低碳经济,我国制造业的国际竞争优势能够得到有力的扩大。文章基于迈克尔.波特的"钻石模型"的四要素,分析了发展低碳经济如何促进我国制造业国际竞争力的提升,并提出了相应的对策建议。     

社会平等、中性政府与中国经济增长

本文从社会平等的角度给出了一个对中国经济增长的政治经济学解释。本文的理论模型表明,平等的社会结构使得政府选择成为一个中性政府,即在社会群体之间没有特定长期偏好的政府,这样的政府更可能把资源分配给生产力比较高的社会群体,从而促进经济增长。得益于中国革命所带来的平等的社会结构,以及改革开放初期党的工作重点向经济建设的转移,中国政府在过去三十多年是一个中性政府,采纳了有利于经济长期发展的政策。但同时,政府把有限的资源分配给生产力较高的群体或地区,必然会扩大收入差距。     

China's membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the exports of the developing economies of East Asia: a computable general equilibrium approach

There is a general perception particularly among the developing countries of East Asia that China's WTO membership would spell bad news for their exports. The ASEAN countries in particular are quite concerned about its likely negative impact on their export and growth potentials. In this light, the main objective of this paper is to empirically assess the trade implications of China's WTO membership for these countries. Only few studies, using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach, have addressed the issue of China's WTO membership trade implications. Further, these studies have not adequately addressed the issue from the perspective of the developing countries of East Asia, particularly the ASEAN countries. Using the latest version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and based on the latest tariff reduction commitments by China, the results showed that, contrary to the current perception and previous studies, almost all of the developing countries of East Asia are likely to benefit from China's WTO membership overall, after allowing for anticipated price adjustments. Without the price adjustments, the Philippines and Singapore would have come out as net losers. These findings have confirmed the need for economic and export restructuring among the ASEAN countries and the importance of accelerating their economic integration. They have also highlighted the importance of promoting trade and investment cooperation between China and ASEAN countries.     

建立环境税收制度 走可持续发展之路

随着可持续发展理论得到国际社会日益广泛的认同，环境保护问题也备受各国政府的重视。我国长期以来的经济高速增长是通过以大量消耗资源、严重污染环境为特征的粗放型经济发展模式来实现的，由此也造成一系列严重的环境问题。我国应在进一步完善现行环境保护税收措施的基础上，尽快研究开征环境保护税，使其作为环境税收制度的主体税种，构建起一套科学、完整的环境税收制度体系，使税收在环境保护方面发挥更重要的作用。     

我国与发达国家慈善事业的差异与成因分析

近年来我国慈善事业日益受到人们的重视,而我国与发达国家慈善事业的发展相比仍有很大的差异。文章探讨这种差异的成因:政治成因﹑经济成因和文化成因,并结合我国慈善事业的实际情况提出了一些可行性建议。     

Energy efficiency and economic growth of China： 1953-2006

Energy plays an important role in the economic life. With the rapid development of economy, the constraint of energy on the sustainable development of economy is becoming more and more obvious. This paper just Studies the factors influencing energy efficiency of China and the relationship between energy efficiency and China＇s economic： growth. By using time series multivariable linear regression methods with China＇s relevant data from 1953 to 2006, this paper constructs the regression model to analyze the factors that would impact energy, efficiency. After that, a regression model of China＇s real output to capital, labor and energy e lficiency is conducted to estimate the marginal contribution of every factor to the real output to prove the fundamental influence of energy efficiency to the economic growth. In the end, some policies and recommendations are also put forward in order to improve the energy efficiency; of China.     

A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE OF AFTA'S PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the impressive economic performance of most of its members have increased the weight of the region's views in world fora. However, ASEAN has been unsuccessful in fostering a regional integration arrangement (RIA) leading to an increase in intraregional trade and foreign direct investment. In January 1992, ASEAN launched the Asean Free Trade Area (AFTA) seeking to establish a free trade area (FTA) by 2008.
Market integration increases economic interdependence and thereby raises the need for policy integration and discipline. This paper argues that a number of difficulties that ASEAN faced in promoting intraregional trade are likely to continue to affect AFTA (e.g., low economic complementarity and macroeconomic imbalances requiring large changes in equilibrium real exchange rates). The experience of other RIAs suggests other potential problems.
AFTA's prospects of evolving into deeper forms of sustainable integration are remote. Some cooperation in areas of common interest seems likely.     

东盟区域旅游可持续发展战略研究

在经济全球化、区域经济一体化日益加强的背景下,区域旅游价值的研究与实践具有重要的时代意义与应用前景.区域旅游是东盟地区旅游业可持续发展的重要依托.在旅游发展过程中,东盟各成员国的参与呈现出良好的趋势.文章分析了本地区区域旅游战略框架构成体系,包括东盟旅游发展目标、区域旅游发展原则、区域旅游评价体系及修正体系,总结了东盟旅游发展现状,并从可持续发展的视角提出了区域旅游发展策略:包括建立东盟无国界旅游圈;加强本地区旅游品牌建设;加强东盟区域内合作与磋商,建立健全本地区应对各种危机的合作机制;并提出了致力于本地区旅游资源低碳化的开发与利用策略.本文基于旅游可持续发展观念的分析,为研究区域跨界旅游合作机制提供了一个新的视角.     

The emergence of extended metropolitan regions in ASEAN: towards the year 2000

"This article analyses the growth of large Extended Metropolitan Regions in the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the period since 1960. The analysis reveals two trends. First, urbanization levels in ASEAN countries are rapidly increasing. By the year 2000, almost 40 per cent of the population will be urban residents. Second, these accelerating processes are creating giant urban regions, called Extended Metropolitan Regions. Analysis of demographic patterns of the emergence of the major urban regions of ASEAN...reveals that these are major areas of economic growth, with industrialization, building development and leisure activities fuelling this process. However, this rapid growth is causing major problems of urban infrastructure provision, land use conflict and environmental deterioration."     

中国物流企业竞争力评价指标体系设计

2005年12月11日中国物流业全面开放以来,物流企业面临着更加激烈的国际竞争,物流市场格局发生了深刻变化。然而,中国关于物流企业竞争力的评价指标体系并不完善。根据2005年5月1日正式施行的《物流企业分类与评估指标》和中国物流企业现状,可采用层次分析法来分析和确定衡量中国物流企业竞争力的指标和权重并据此建立评估模型。     

地缘经济区的合作开发及其实践策略调整--以中国-东盟合作开发地缘经济区的实证分析为例

地缘经济区是世界经济一体化和区域集团化在地域表现上的一种特殊形式,通过合作开发地缘经济区,能有效地推动沿边地区的开放和发展。论文从地缘经济区的发展前景、主要特征和合作开发的普遍效应等问题的讨论入手,并以中国—东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的建设为背景,在系统分析中国—东盟合作开发地缘经济区的实践成果与存在问题的基础上,着重论述了中国—东盟合作开发地缘经济区实践策略的调整思路。     

利用外资促进我国产业升级:问题与对策

新一轮国际产业转移的浪潮正扑面而来。把握机遇,继续借外资之力推动产业升级既是我国经济发展方式成功转型的必需和关键,也是提升我国产业国际竞争力、提高我国在国际分工地位的必由之路。在此背景下,文章探讨了我国在以产业升级为目标的利用外资进程中所存在的问题和面临的挑战,并对此提出应对策略。