基于ISM的道路交通突发事件影响因素分析

构造了道路交通突发事件影响因素的解释结构模型,解析了各影响因素间的逻辑关系,识别了关键影响因素的层级结构,找到了影响道路交通突发事件发生的最直接和最根本的关键因素,为道路交通突发事件识别和分析提供了科学依据。     

基于结构突变理论的国内出游率趋势探析

通过考虑结构变化的单位根检验发现,1985～2008年的国内旅游年人均出游率是一个带有两个结构突变点的趋势平稳过程。1993年为截距突变点,2002年为截距与趋势双突变点。2003年后的出游率年均增长量远高于前期,以现有趋势看,可提前一年达到我国提出的2015年居民年均出游超过2次的发展目标。     

虑及结构突变的我国能源需求模型研究

考虑到外部冲击有可能导致能源需求和经济增长之间关系的变化,本文基于1953--2000年的数据检测了我国能源需求和GDP之间关系发生结构突变的时机;在此基础上,运用协整技术和误差修正模型分析了我国能源需求和GDP之间的长期均衡和短期动态的关系,建立了我国能源需求模型,并将其与不考虑结构突变的能源需求模型进行比较。比较结果表明：本文所提模型更能准确反映建模样本期间能源需求和GDP之间的关系,具有更高的预测能力。     

Structural changes and regional disparity in China's inflation: a revisit

The study re-examined the time series properties and regional disparities in Chinese inflation by extending the work of Chong, Zhang, and Feng (2011 Chong, Tai-Leeung, Terence, Ning Zhang and Feng, Qu. 2011. Structural Changes and Regional Disparity in China's Inflation. Economics Bulletien, 31(1): 572–583.  [Google Scholar]). For this purpose we employed the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root test with one structural break and two structural breaks suggested by Lee and Strazicich (2003 Lee, Junsoo, Mark, C. and Strazicich. 2003. Minimum LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4): 1082–1089. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2004 Lee, J. and Strazicich, M. 2004. Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Working Paper 04–17, Boone, North Carolina: Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.  [Google Scholar]) and a recently developed ADF type unit root test with two structural breaks of Narayan and Popp (2010 Narayan, Paresh Kumar and Stephan Popp. 2010. A New Unit root test with Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unknown Time. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9): 1425–1438. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We found that national, urban and rural series of the overall inflation series, clothing, and food, national series of education and residence and the rural series of residence and education are stationary. We also found regional disparity in Chinese inflation, but the disparities existed only in education inflation series.     

Bayesian analysis of periodic unit roots in the presence of a break

A Bayesian testing approach for a periodic unit root in quarterly and monthly data is presented. Further a Bayesian test is introduced to test for unit roots at (non)seasonal spectral frequencies. All procedures admit one structural break in the periodic trend function, where the occurrence of a break and the associated timing are treated as additional model parameters. A Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach is proposed and power functions of the tests are computed. Overall the results indicate that the BMA periodic unit root test exhibits favourable test properties even in small samples. In an empirical application the presented testing procedures are used to test for (non)seasonal forms of unemployment persistence among OECD countries.     

中国经济结构变动的投入产出分析

中国已进入了第十个五年计划这一重要的战略发展期.在此期间,一个重要的发展中枢性目标是进行经济结构的战略性调整,快速提升国际竞争力.本文基于投入产出分析理论,对中国经济体系中各产业总产出变动的主要变动因素(总消费变动、进出口变动、技术结构变动及投资结构变动等)进行了模型分解,试图发现中国产业结构变动的规律性特点,分析经济增长各影响因素在不同产业中的贡献,寻找如何提升产业水平及各产业国际竞争力的途径,为制定我国的经济发展战略提供决策依据.     

直觉决策因素结构分析

本文以行为决策理论为基础,根据对江苏省内企业知识员工直觉决策的实地调研数据,并结合文献研究,从心理和认知的角度分析了直觉决策因素的构成,揭示了直觉决策的6个维度,同时对影响直觉决策的基本因素进行了分析,旨在为我国企业直觉决策的测量、评价量表的确定以及直觉决策的主要构成因素和影响因素的明晰做有益的探索。     

Trade Openness,Structural Change and Total Factor Productivity

The impact of trade openness on growth of total factor productivity (TFP) is investigated. Given the differences in tradability of goods across sectors as well as the ongoing structural change, we examine whether trade openness has had a differential impact on TFP growth of the three main sectors of an economy. While the positive impact of openness on TFP growth for the aggregate economy is confirmed, openness has had no appreciable impact on the growth of TFP in the agricultural and industrial sectors. We find that the positive effect of openness on TFP growth for the economy as a whole was mostly due to the positive relationship between the two variables for the services sector. Further, we conclude that the lack of a general consensus in past studies could be due to their neglect of structural change and temporal factors when analyzing the trade-TFP nexus.     

Non‐discriminatory Trade Policies in Panel Structural Gravity Models: Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations

This paper provides Monte Carlo (MC) simulation evidence on the performance of methods used for identifying the effects of nondiscriminatory trade policy (NDTP) variables in panel structural gravity models. The benchmarked methods include a fixed effect (FE) estimator that utilizes data on intra national trade flows, the bonus‐vetus (BV) and the two‐stage fixed effect (FE‐2S) estimator. The results indicate that only the FE estimates are unbiased and consistent under very general assumptions of the data generating process. The favourable asymptotic properties of the FE estimator unfold as the number of period T increases.     

Innovation and Income Inequality in the USA: Ceremonial versus Institutional Changes

Abstract

This article investigates the distributive effects of technological progress in the United States during the last four decades. The result of our econometric analysis reveals that the shift in R&D investment from the public to the private sector was associated with an increase in income share of the richer classes at the expense of the poorer income classes. Taking an institutionalist perspective, these findings can be explained by ceremonial encapsulation of innovation by corporate capital that slows the pace of social progress. In this context, diffusion of innovation may be treated as a progressive institutional change.     

Modelling inflation shifts and persistence in Tunisia: perspectives from an evolutionary spectral approach

This article examines the dynamic characteristics of the inflation rate in Tunisia over the last two decades, and particularly following the onset of the Arab Spring in 2010 which causes distortions in this country’s monetary policy. We focus on the two specific dimensions of the Tunisian inflation rate: inflation regimes and persistence. We tackle this issue by adopting an evolutionary spectral approach, initially proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973). Our main findings indicate a stable inflation regime in the last 10 years, with an average inflation rate of around 5.5%. It is also found that the Tunisian inflation experienced a high degree of inertia which reflects its gradual responses to shocks. We also discuss the policy implications of these results, which typically require policy-makers to implement sound institutional reforms to reduce inflation.     

Re-examination of convergence hypothesis among Indian states in panel stationarity testing framework with structural breaks

This article examines the conditional income convergence hypothesis for 17 major states in India for the period of 1960–2012. Univariate stationarity tests without structural breaks provide evidence against the convergence hypothesis. However, when two or more structural breaks are applied in per capita income series, the incomes of around 11–13 states are found to stochastically converge to the national average. This finding supports the convergence hypothesis for the panel as a whole after accounting for two data features, cross-sectional dependence and structural breaks in incomes, using a unified panel stationarity testing framework.     

我国老年人日常生活自理健康预期寿命的差异性分析

健康是人们关心的热点问题,对老年人来说,不仅要长寿,而且要健康,要尽可能长久地保持生活自理能力,提高自身的生命质量。回答我国老年人的日常生活不能自理期是压缩还是扩展了,分析影响老年人日常生活自理能力的因素。采用1992年和2002年两次全国老年调查数据,做分城乡、分性别、分年龄的不同老年人生活自理健康预期寿命的差异性分析。在1992年和2002年期间,城镇老年人和农村老年人日常生活不能自理期均在“扩展”;2002年卧床不起的疾病对老年人日常活动影响更大,老年人2002年比1992年在生活自理方面需要更多的照料资源。     

中国参与ICP的理论基础与实证检验——基于人民币购买力平价理论的协整分析

我国将于2012年通过购买力平价换算GDP参与国际比较项目(ICP),人民币购买力平价在长期内是否成立是我国能否顺利参与这一项目的关键。在中外购买力平价(PPP)实证研究的基础上,选择三变量模型,对1950～2009年间人民币汇率及其中美CPI年度数据进行实证检验。旨在为我国参与ICP提供理论上的支持。     

A wavelet-based panel unit-root test in the presence of an unknown structural break and cross-sectional dependency,with an application of purchasing power parity theory in developing countries

This article introduces two different non-parametric wavelet-based panel unit-root tests in the presence of unknown structural breaks and cross-sectional dependencies in the data. These tests are compared with a previously suggested non-parametric wavelet test, the parameteric Im-Pesaran and Shin (IPS) test and a Wald type of test. The results from the Monte Carlo simulations clearly show that the new wavelet-ratio tests are superior to the traditional tests both in terms of size and power in panel unit-root tests because of its robustness to cross-section dependency and structural breaks. Based on an empirical Central American panel application, we can, in contrast to previous research (where bias due to structural breaks is simply disregarded), find strong, clear-cut support for purchasing power parity (PPP) in this developing region.     

结构变迁、工资差异与经济增长——基于75个国家和地区1978—2007年面板数据的实证研究

文章基于1978-2007年包括中国等发展中国家在内的跨国数据探讨结构变化的增长效应,通过扩展MRW(1992)模型得出结构变化与部门间工资比的关系,并着重考察结构变化和工资差异对经济增长的影响。研究发现:(1)当部门间劳动边际产出存在差异时,劳动的重新配置有助于经济增长。(2)结构变化率和工资差异与经济增长正相关。(3)在发展中国家或地区,结构变化的增长效应最大,物质资本的影响次之;在发达国家,人力资本的增长效应最大,结构变化的影响不显著。     

中国外贸产业结构变迁与国际竞争力演化的经验分析

通过采用1978-2009年联合国Comtrade数据库中按照三、四位数分类的中国进出口贸易数据和国家统计局《中国高技术产业统计分类》中的数据,以国际竞争力指数来代指外贸产业的竞争力状态,并用其时间序列在不同产业中的变化来刻画改革开放30多年来中国贸易产业结构的发展轨迹和国际竞争力走向。研究结果表明,中国外贸产业结构渐趋优化,国际竞争力在逐渐提升。从总体上看,劳动密集型产业竞争力优势仍将保持,资本密集型产业竞争力有所提升,但在高新技术领域中具有较强竞争力的行业很少。中国在从贸易大国向贸易强国转变过程中仍需进一步提升外贸产业的国际竞争力。     

我国物流业全要素生产率及其影响因素分析

运用索洛残值法测算了1997—2010年我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的物流业TFP,构建空间计量模型,对物流业TFP的影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:我国各省的物流业TFP具有明显的空间相关性和空间异质性;地理环境因素对物流业TFP的影响显著,地理位置相邻地区的物流业TFP具有趋同现象;基础设施和工业化进程对物流业TPF的提高有显著的正向影响,而市场需求条件和市场化水平的促进作用不显著。     

要素生产率和要素配置作用下的中国城乡收入差距

根据城乡生产函数差异的特征事实构建了城乡收入差距模型,利用我国各省1997—2009年数据研究城乡劳动力比、固定资产比、人力资本比、农业中间品投入、工业化和第三产业规模对城乡收入差距的影响。结果显示,我国城乡要素生产率与城乡要素配置的差异对城乡收入差距具有决定性作用;城乡劳动力比的增长明显有助于缩小城乡收入差距,而城乡人力资本比、固定资本投入比、农业成本、以及相邻地区间的相关性都导致了城乡收入差距的扩大。缩小城乡差距的重要途径是加快农村劳动力的城市化、增加农村教育投入、提高农业生产率、增加农村的物质资本投入,各省缩小城乡收入差距的努力对邻近省份也会产生积极影响。     

The Stability of the Demand for Money in Monetary Unions: Some Empirical Evidence from WAEMU

Previous studies of the stability of the demand for money have been largely conducted in the context of individual countries. To the extent that these countries have control over their monetary policies, such an approach is well justified. However, for monetary unions, where the control over monetary policy is usually vested in a central or outside authority, it is more appropriate to examine the stability of the money demand for the union as a collective entity. This paper follows this approach with respect to a West African monetary union, the WAEMU, whose monetary policies are largely dictated by the French authorities. Using cointegration theory and CUSUM stability tests, we find evidence that the demand for broad money is stable in this union. Given the empirical results, the paper draws inferences regarding their implications for the formulation of optimal monetary policy for the WAEMU.