The Effect of Public Education Expenditure on Shadow Economy: A Cross-Country Analysis

This paper empirically examines whether devoting more resources to education can reduce the size of the shadow economy on a cross-section of countries. The findings show a negative relationship between public education expenditure and the size of the shadow economy, which is robust to the inclusion of different proxies for the control variables, a large set of policy variables, regional differences and endogeneity. The findings also emphasize the role of education, suggesting that public policies devoted to higher education level imply a decreasing effect on the shadow economy.     

FDI对我国创业型经济发展的效应分析

运用面板门限模型验证了FDI对我国创业型经济影响的门限特征。结果显示,在全国范围内,区域人均GDP发展水平的变化会使FDI对创业型经济的影响表现出门限特性,即当区域人均GDP低于FDI发挥积极作用的门限时,FDI将会对创业型经济产生负面影响;而当区域人均GDP超过该门限后,FDI对创业型经济的发展将发挥越来越大的促进作用。     

The nexus of white collar crimes: shadow economy,corruption and uninsured motorists

This article empirically examines the nexus of three white collar crimes: shadow economy, corruption and uninsured motorists. Whereas the shadow economy–corruption linkage has been studied, the linkages with uninsured motorists have not been formally studied. Results, based on US data and accounting for possible bidirectional causalities, show complementarity between shadow economy and corruption and between uninsured motorists and the shadow economy. The magnitude of the impact of uninsured motorists on the shadow economy is greater than that of corruption. In other findings, shadow economy was lower in most prosperous states and in states that did not impose a sales tax.     

FDI对区域经济增长的贡献度研究——来自1999-2007年我国中部六省的经验数据

国外直接投资(即FDI)对发展中国家经济增长的贡献度问题一直是人们研究的热点问题。文章基于1999-2007年中部六省的数据,研究FDI与中部地区经济增长之间的关系,得出FDI对中部地区经济增长的直接促进作用不是很大,但是由FDI所带来的技术溢出效应对经济增长起反向的拉动作用。鉴于此,文章对中部地区在引进外资方面提出相关建议,即在重视FDI的量的同时更应该注重其质的提高,注重FDI对当地企业的技术溢出效应。     

An Exploration of the Greek Shadow Economy: Can Its Transfer into the Official Economy Provide Economic Relief Amid the Crisis?

We explore the determinants of the Greek shadow economy, its interaction with the official economy, and its relationship with corruption. In doing so, we undertake — for the first time — an interdisciplinary review of economic and political studies on the size and determinants of the shadow economy, tax evasion, undeclared work and, moreover, of their relation with corruption in Greece in order to reveal the extent and complexity of these phenomena. We estimate the size and determinants of the shadow economy via a multiple-indicators-multiple-causes (MIMIC) approach. Our findings indicate that the important determinants are factors related to macroeconomic conditions, such as unemployment and GDP growth, and institutional factors, such as tax morale and the rule of law. We also indicate that the shadow economy and corruption are complementary and that the official and the shadow economy substitute each other over the business cycle. An adoption of policy based on these findings would lead to a successful transfer of part of the shadow economy to the official economy, would boost government revenue, and would eventually lead the Greek economy out of the depression that emerged as a result of the sovereign debt crisis.     

中国FDI的行业空间分布与对区域经济发展的影响分析

近年来外商直接投资在我国的分布日渐广泛,由于进入各地的FDI行业不同,对我国地区经济发展的影响也就不同。本文试图通过对进入中国FDI的行业空间分布的研究,分析FDI的行业投资的空间分布特征,首先用区位商分析FDI的行业相对空间分布,即各行业FDI投资项目在各省市的集中程度;然后采用偏离－份额分析法对一定时段内各省市FDI投资项目的行业变化进行计算,得出各省市FDI投资项目产业结构效果指数和竞争效果指数,通过分析认为：直接外资重点分布的东部沿海虽然在吸引FDI方面具较强竞争力,但这一地区FDI的结构效果并不明显,原因是东部沿海FDI项目结构亟街改变,投资于小规模的劳动密集型制造工业已近饱和,而中西部地区由于进入的FDI额少,项目少,因而FDI投资结构对目前其吸引FDI的能力并无太大影响。并简单谈到具有空间差异的FDI行业分布对我国各地区经济发展的影响。     

A portfolio model of capital flows to emerging markets

Since the crises of the late 1990's, most emerging market economies have built up substantial positive holdings of US dollar treasury bills, while at the same time experiencing a boom in FDI capital inflows. This paper develops a DSGE model of the interaction between an emerging market economy and an advanced economy which incorporates two-way capital flows between the economies. The novel aspect of the paper is to make use of new methods for analyzing portfolio choice in DSGE models. We compare a range of alternative financial market structures, in each case computing equilibrium portfolios. We find that an asymmetric configuration where the emerging economy holds nominal bonds and issues claims on capital (FDI) can achieve a considerable degree of international risk-sharing. This risk-sharing can be enhanced by a more stable monetary policy in the advanced economy.     

Measuring the size and dynamics of U.S. state-level shadow economies using a dynamic general equilibrium model with trends

We use a two-sector dynamic deterministic general equilibrium model that specifically accounts for trends among time-series variables to estimate the size of the shadow economy for the 50 U.S. states from 1999 to 2019, following Solis-Garcia and Xie (2018, 2022). This paper improves on existing measures of the state-level shadow economy (such as the multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) methodology by Wiseman (2013a)). In particular, this new measure is based on theoretical foundations, extends the previous measure to include the Great Recession, includes dollar value estimates of the shadow economy, and produces considerably more variation over time and across states. Furthermore, we explore determinants of this new shadow economy measure using a panel vector autoregressive model and find that, on average, states with higher levels of economic freedom, lower regulatory barriers, and larger real GDP have smaller shadow economies. States with bigger governments, on average, have larger shadow economies, and the effect of corruption on shadow economic activity is non-linear, with a positive initial and subsequent negative impact.     

Estimating the size of the shadow economy in Spain: a structural model with latent variables

There has recently been a revival of international interest in measuring the size of the shadow economy. The current study adopts an approach to the Spanish case that is based on the theory of unobservable variables. This methodology involves the estimation of structural models (MIMIC) which analyses a set of causes of the shadow economy while simultaneously taking into account its influence upon a series of indicators. The proposed model permits the determination of a relative evolution over time of the size of the shadow economy, which requires the calibration of the model with an exogenous estimation in order to obtain real values. The exogenous estimation employed is that obtained by a monetary method based on a money demand function. The results show a considerable shadow economy, measuring between 8 and 18.8% of GDP in the period 1976–2002, and demonstrate that the shadow economy is significantly influenced by the tax burden, the degree of regulation and unit labour costs. A positive correlation is obtained between GDP, money demand and the level of the shadow economy.     

城市数字经济发展能够影响FDI区位选择吗？

本文在理论分析数字经济影响FDI区位选择的内在机理基础上，采用中国2011—2018年284个地级城市作为研究样本，构建数字经济指数，运用双向固定效应模型实证分析数字经济对FDI区位选择的影响，并进一步检验数字经济影响FDI的间接作用机制和系列异质性特征。结果显示，数字经济发展促进了城市FDI的流入，并以间接影响制造业发展加速FDI流入，经过各种稳健性检验后结论依然成立；异质性分析表明，在实施宽带中国的城市、东部地区和数字经济发展水平高的城市，数字经济对强化FDI区位选择的影响更加显著；机制分析表明，数字经济通过推动数字金融、刺激居民创业渠道影响FDI。这些发现为新时期中国夯实数字经济发展，扩大对外开放并稳定外资找到了新思路并提供了实证依据。     

Intertemporally consistent shadow prices in an open economy: Estimates for Cyprus

In the practical estimation of shadow prices, the assumption that the economy is on a steady-state growth path is often invoked, usually implicitly. Most developing countries are far from this trajectory. We derive shadow prices where the dynamic evolution of the economy is endogenously determined, important influences being initial conditions and the constraints on foreign borrowing. Hence, the resulting (dated) shadow prices of tradeables, nontradeables, labor and the accounting rate of interest (ARI) are mutually consistent. Estimates for the Republic of Cyprus show that derivations from steady-state growth can be significant, leading to large fluctuations in the ARI and thereby making the timing of investment projects crucial.     

Do fiscal decentralization and income inequality affect the size of the shadow economy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries

In this article, we study fiscal decentralization and inequality as driving forces of the shadow economy in advanced economies. Our empirical analysis suggests that a reduction in income inequality will contain the shadow economy, whereas expenditure and tax decentralization do not significantly impact it. As decentralization is generally believed to increase government efficiency, this result is indicative of already highly efficient public administrations. Our results further indicate that redistributive policies positively affect the size of the shadow economy, whereas the tax burden does not have any discernible effect on the shadow economy in our sample.     

外向型经济对郑州市经济增长影响的计量分析

文章基于外资、外贸的角度分析了外向型经济与郑州市经济增长的因果关系,并研究了外向型经济所产生经济效果的区域差异性。结果发现:出口贸易与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系,外商直接投资和经济增长之间存在单项因果关系;中心城区的外向型经济指数高于远郊区,工业发展程度高的区域外向型经济指数高于其他区域;外向型经济能够推动工业基础较完善区域的经济发展。     

The Shadow Economy in German Regions: An Empirical Assessment

Despite the increasing number of contributions to the literature, regional variations of the shadow economy have been hardly studied. This article analyses the determinants and derives the size of the shadow economy on the district level in Germany. I find that an inferior local labour market and the burden of taxation significantly contribute to the existence of the shadow economy, while a better enforcement of tax rules and regulations has the potential to deter such activities. Districts in the affluent south of Germany experience on average smaller shadow economies.     

Foreign Capital, Urban Unemployment, and Economic Growth

A three-sector endogenous growth model, is used to study the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the dynamics of urban unemployment, labour income, and capital income as well as national welfare in a Harris–Todaro economy. It is shown that more FDI can affect the economy's dynamics and national welfare positively or negatively. The paper derives conditions as to how the growth rate and welfare effects of FDI relate to the intersectoral mobility of capital, the destination of FDI, the elasticities of substitution, and the factor intensities of the final good production.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Merchandise and Services Trade in a Transition Economy: The Case of Cambodia

Since the liberalization of trade and investment in the 1990s, inward foreign direct investment (FDI) has been seen to play a greater role in forging trade flows, integration into the regional and international markets and economic development for a transition economy such as Cambodia. Despite her recent progress in attracting FDI and fostering trade, the direction of causality between inward FDI, exports and imports of merchandise as well as services has not been empirically explored. The findings show that inward FDI not only can promote both merchandise and services exports but also indicate the presence of backward and forward linkages, which could result in positive externalities. However, based on the impulse response analysis, it seems that merchandise exports are more vulnerable than services exports to an unanticipated shift in FDI inflows in the medium run.     

How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth in China?

How does inward foreign direct investment (FDI) affect a transitional economy? This study attempts to analyze the role of FDI in China’s income growth and market‐oriented transition. We first identify possible channels through which FDI may have positive or negative effects on the Chinese economy. Using a growth model and cross‐section and panel data for the period 1984‐98, we provide an empirical assessment, which suggests that FDI seems to help China’s transition and promote income growth, and that this positive growth effect seems to rise over time and to be stronger in the coastal than the inland regions. JEL classification: F21, F23, O53.     

Measuring the size of the shadow economy in 30 provinces of China over 1995–2016: The MIMIC approach

Applying the multiple indicators and multiple causes (MIMIC) approach, the present paper measured the size of the shadow economies in China's provinces over 1995–2016. The results show that the average size of the shadow economy in 30 provinces of China increased from 13.55% in 1995 to 14.39% in 2009, and then decreased to 12.30% in 2016. There are obvious variations in the size of the shadow economies in different districts of China. The average size of the shadow economy is lowest in provinces in the eastern district and highest in the western district. In addition, the causes and consequences of the shadow economies in China's provinces have also been analysed using the MIMIC approach, and the results show that tax burden, complexity of the tax system, intensity of regulation, unemployment, employment in the agricultural sector and economic openness have significant positive effects on China's shadow economy, while the ratio of direct taxes to indirect taxes, fiscal autonomy and income levels have significant negative effects on China's shadow economy. Using the growth rate of energy consumption as the benchmark indicator, the MIMIC analysis shows that the shadow economy has significant positive effects on the development of the official economy and income inequality while having a significant negative effect on the labour participation rate.     

Do regional trade agreements stimulate FDI? Evidence for the Agadir,MERCOSUR and AFTA regions

The integration of emerging markets into the global economy is heavily promoted by foreign direct investment (FDI ) inflows. Among the factors explaining the location of FDI , regional trade agreements (RTA s) can be relevant for emerging markets, as they can promote economic integration and increase the attractiveness of the region for foreign investors. This paper investigates the impact of South–South trade agreements on the FDI decision of multinationals, where the Agadir, mercado comun del sur (MERCOSUR), and ASEAN free trade area (AFTA) agreements are considered. Three panels of countries are defined, where the members joined a specific agreement or not. Non‐Gulf Arab states are compared to better performing regions in Latin America and Southern and Eastern Asia. The analysis provides evidence that openness to foreign trade and financial markets are among the main catalysts to attract FDI , provided that business‐friendly institutions exist in the host country. Other variables, like the size of the industrial sector, urbanization rates, and external debt appear to be important in some cases. The integration of China into the world economy is a specific trigger for FDI to Asian destinations. Since RTA s influence the market size by reducing barriers to trade, their impact operates via GDP growth and openness. Gains from the agreement are striking for Latin America and Asia, but not for Arab states. To attract more FDI , business‐friendly institutional reforms and mechanisms to support new firm foundation should be implemented in this region.     

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Poland's Trade with the European Union

Over 75% of FDI in Poland originates from the EU. The EU also predominates in the exports and imports of FDI companies. The objective of this article is to examine whether FDI is likely to replace trade or to create new trade flows. In particular, the article shows the influence of FDI on Poland's trade with the EU. The FDI impact on Polish trade can be seen as its contribution to export creation. Moreover, externalities caused by trade and FDI inflow are influencing Polish specialisation patterns, which is important in the process of integrating the economy into the world market.