Bilateral political relations,space spillovers and the import expansion of China’s bulk commodity

The stability of bulk commodities imports is crucial to the development and stability of the country’s economy. Because its political attribute is more significant than other commodities, the trade of bulk commodities is more easily affected by bilateral political relations. However, there are only few studies examine the impact of political relations between countries and their spatial spillovers on bulk commodities’ imports. Based on “United Nations (UN) Voting General Assembly Voting Data” and “China Import and Export Statistics Data” from 1996 to 2014, this paper empirically examines the influence of the spatial spillover of China’s political relations with countries other than potential importing countries on the import expansion of China’s bulk commodity from the potential importing country. The results show that the improvement of bilateral political relations between China and other countries has a negative spatial spillover effect on the import of bulk commodities. However, this negative effect will be changed as China starts to establish a sound bilateral political relation with the potential importing country. Meanwhile, the more significant the political attributes of commodities, the greater the negative effect of spatial spillover. The import expansion of commodities with significant political attributes requires an improvement in direct bilateral relations.     

English timber imports from Northern Europe in the eighteenth century

Abstract

English commercial history has tended to concern itself with tracing the pattern of exports, especially of textiles, rather than that of imports. There are, however, certain commodities on the import side that have attracted more attention than others—strategically important articles, for example, such as tar and pitch, which used to be designated as ‘naval stores’. These commodities, together with iron, constituted northern Europe's most important contribution to English imports in the eighteenth century.¹ The import of ‘naval stores’, like that of iron, was based upon northern Europe's vast forest resources combined with proximity to England. Of the regions within the orbit of English trade, only North America could boast continuous tracts of forest on a comparable scale; but the long transatlantic crossing retarded such imports from America, for wood and wood products were bulky commodities in relation to their value.     

The integrated programme for commodities

The gains from stabilizing commodity prices are likely to be rather small. The distribution of such gains among producers and consumers is uncertain. Compensatory financing is a cheaper and more effective means of dealing with the problem of fluctuating export earnings. The developing countries have some scope for cartel pricing in the tropical beverages, but hardly in any of the other ten ‘core’ commodities. A common fund is not an economically essential feature of the commodity programme, and will not lead to savings in terms of resources. As a group the ‘core’ commodities do not face serious import barriers in the developed countries. In sum, the integrated commodity programme, if implemented, may produce some, but probably rather limited benefits to the developing countries. Some of these could be at the cost of the developed countries, and it is not clear if the whole scheme is a positive-negative-, or zero-sum game.     

Numeracy of Africans,Asians, and Europeans during the early modern period: new evidence from Cape Colony court registers

The lack of accurate measures of human capital formation often constrains investigations into the long‐run determinants of growth and comparative economic development, especially in the developing world. Using the reported ages of criminals in the Court of Justice records in the Cape Archives, this article documents for the first time numeracy levels and trends for inhabitants of the Cape Colony born between the late seventeenth and early nineteenth century: the native Khoesan, European settlers, and imported slaves from other African regions and Asia. This variety of origins allows us to compare contemporaneous levels of early modern development across three continents. By isolating those slaves born at the Cape, we also provide a glimpse into the dynamics of human capital transfer in a colonial setting. The Colony's relatively high level of human capital overall had implications for what was later to be the richest country on African soil, but the very unequal attainment of numeracy also foreshadowed extreme income inequality.     

Transnational corporations and non-fuel primary commodities in developing countries

This article first reviews trends in the involvement of transnational corporations (TNCs) in the non-fuel commodity industries of developing countries, noting that while the role of these firms in primary production has been eroded somewhat, their role in downstream activities is as strong as ever. Empirical estimates of the “retained value” from these industries are presented, showing that the developing countries generally receive only a part of the value of exports, and only a fraction of the retail price of the end-products of the commodities. The strategies of the developing producer countries are discussed, focusing on the experience of taxation and state participation. The article ends with some brief comments on the prospects for the future.     

Tourism development in the SADC region: The opportunities and challenges

This article presents an assessment of recent tourism performance in the countries of the Southern African Development Community region, as well as an evaluation of future prospects. It examines growth rates and source markets in developing a profile of current tourism to the region. It identifies and assesses the current and probable future impact of a range of issues and problems, which are serving either to help or hinder tourism development. It suggests necessary actions for facilitating the accelerated development of tourism. The article also analyses the countries' tourism development policies and their competitive standing with other parts of Africa and other world regions from the market's viewpoint. It evaluates future growth prospects for the region by relating these various strands of analysis to the assessments made in the World Tourism Organization's Tourism 2020 vision study. The conclusion is one of qualified optimism: the natural and sociocultural resources of the region match the growing tastes of the international tourism market but, without concerted action to improve international access and tackle the major (real and imagined) threats to tourist safety prevailing in the region, growth rates will continue to be below their potential. The region's physical remoteness from the military theatre of action consequent to the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States could well bring the countries of the SADC, and especially South Africa, some benefit from being perceived in tourist-generating markets as safe from these activities.     

Africa's Economic Growth: Opportunities and Constraints

Abstract: Africa's economies have diverged from other developing regions: over the past three decades growth has been much slower. In this paper I relate this to the region's distinctive physical and political geography. These features not only make Africa different from other regions, they make some parts of Africa radically different from others. Understanding these differences is critical because they imply equally substantial differences in opportunities and hence in the strategies likely to be effective for growth. No pan‐African growth strategy offers a realistic prospect of success, nor can Africa simply copy the strategies of successful regions that have fundamentally different physical or political geography. I propose three strategies each of which is likely to be appropriate for a part of the region.     

Gains from Trade: Implications for Labour Market Adjustment and Poverty Reduction in Africa

Abstract: This paper reassesses the gains from trade for sub‐Saharan Africa, and draws their implications for labour market adjustment and poverty reduction. It reviews previous studies on multilateral liberalization, focusing on the findings from Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models with relevance to African economies. The implications of these findings for poverty reduction are discussed. Our own CGE exercise supports the hypothesis that African countries cannot expect substantial gains from further multilateral liberalization. Moreover, given the sharp contraction of import‐competing sectors in response to trade liberalization in many African economies, coupled with insufficient compensation through labour market adjustments in other sectors, this study suggests that the ultimate impact on poverty reduction is likely to be small or even negative.     

我国创意产业中的国际分工研究——基于典型发达国家和发展中国家的比较分析

本文分析我国创意产业中的国际分工,并与典型的发达国家和发展中国家进行对比.结果发现,我国创意产业的出口贸易总额及比重占据世界第一,远远超过了所研究的主要发达国家和发展中国家;我国创意商品贸易的比较优势与国际竞争力也远远领先于其他发达国家和发展中国家;但是,更进一步的分析揭示我国创意商品的出口主要集中于劳动密集型、低创意...     

区域旅游商品深度开发探析

旅游商品是旅游业的重要组成部分,经过多年的发展,各地都有了较丰富的旅游商品。但是旅游商品在深度开发过程过程中仍然存在一些问题,本文在区域旅游商品基本理论的基础上提出一些旅游商品深度开发的相关策略。     

Poverty,human rights law and socio-economic realities in South Africa†

South Africa is a nation of immense variety. It has rich cultural diversity, an enviable climate and an abundance of natural resources. However, it is also a nation with vast economic disparities and a highly unequal distribution of income. Hence, in spite of abundant resources and a seemingly vibrant economy, South Africa still faces an enormous poverty problem that is fundamentally no different from that of other African countries. As in many other African countries this problem of poverty is compounded by the HIV/AIDS pandemic; by high levels of unemployment; by low levels of education; and by a number of other factors. Today, South Africa has one of the best constitutions in the world and a Bill of Rights that contains an array of justiciable socio-economic rights. The South African government has also attempted to alleviate poverty and mitigate its effects through progressively developing and expanding a social welfare system and other programmes such as the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) and the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) strategy. The purpose of this article is to analyse the role of human rights (specifically the Bill of Rights in the Constitution) and government efforts to alleviate poverty (through certain programmes and service delivery) in the face of adverse socio-economic realities in South Africa.     

Unlocking the potential of unoccupied spectrum in developing countries: Southern African Development Community – case study

The lack of adequate telecommunications infrastructure in developing regions makes wireless systems the most feasible solution for providing Internet connectivity. With the global migration of television (TV) systems from analogue to digital, the TV spectrum is expected to be shared between broadcasting and broadband services. However, the absence of suitable regulatory policies for TV band sharing and low average revenue per user experienced by wireless network operators makes it difficult to deploy broadband networks in developing regions, especially in rural areas. This article presents a co-evolution analysis of three key domains of change (policy, technology and business) in providing broadband connectivity focusing on the Southern African Development Community region. Furthermore, the article proposes public–private partnership and public–private–people partnership models for deploying wireless broadband networks in developing regions. This article is useful to various stakeholders, including policy-makers, governments, the wireless communications industry and academia, by addressing the digital divide in developing regions.     

African trade dynamics: is China a different trading partner?

This paper employs the standard gravity model to identify the quality of governance of China's African trade partners. As a benchmark, we perform the same analysis on other major African trade partners: France, Germany, UK, and USA. Data from 53 African countries in 1996–2009 show that only China is consistently willing to import more from African countries with a lower governance standing. By doing so; China fills a gap left open by the other major world economies, and might even play a key role in the future development of Africa.     

Cooperation between Russia and the European Union: From importing to exporting technology

This article analyzes the trade and economic relations between Russia and European Union. It has been shown that the existing substantial qualitative imbalance in the mutual trade f lows is largely due to the level of development of innovation systems in Russia and the European Union. Arguments have been presented for implementing an import substitution strategy in regions of Russia in the existing political and economic situation (the sanctions against Russia and the depreciation of the ruble). Proposals have been presented for the development of import substitution in regions of Russia (in the case of the Vologda oblast).     

PROBLEMS IN EXPANDING JAPAN'S IMPORTS OF MANUFACTURES FROM DEVELOPING ECONOMIES: A SURVEY*

The Japanese economy is now the second largest market economy, with a large trade surplus. And yet, Japan's imports of manufactures have long been very low relative to its GNP, when compared with other industrial countries; its ratio of manufactured imports to GNP was in the range of 2.1–2.7% in the 1980-87 period, as compared with 8.5–10.3% for the industrial countries as a whole or 4.7-7.2% for the United States. The share of developing economies in total imports of manufactures in Japan is about the same as, if not higher than, those for most other industrial countries. If Japan's ratio of manufactured imports to GNP were to rise in the future to approach closer to those of other industrial countries, Japan's imports of manufactures from developing economies could be two to three times what they are today, even if Japan's GNP does not increase at all and the share of developing economies in Japan's manufactured imports does not increase. This paper is an attempt to probe the potential of the Japanese market for imports of manufactures from developing economies in terms of rising ratio of such imports to GNP. The paper explores the reasons why Japan's ratio is exceptionally low, on the basis of existing literature. (a) Japan's ratio of manufactured imports to GNP has remained exceptionally low compared with those for other industrial countries. (b) Japan's ratio of manufactured imports from developing economies to GNP has remained distinctly low despite the recent surge in such imports. (c) If a part of the reason for the low ratio for Japan was a market access problem as often alleged, the problem is not with formal import barriers such as tariffs and formal non-tariff barriers because these barriers in Japan are no higher than in other industrial countries. As for informal import barriers, evidence found indicates that: (i) Administrative guidance and flexibly managed competition policy, which in the past had considerable effects of limiting imports, appear to have declined-in importance, but they still have import-limiting effects in certain areas. (ii) Market access difficulties involving import procedures, product standards, testing and certification requirements, which were enormous in the past, may have also decreased in severity over the last decade, but problems in these areas persist. (iii) There are aspects of the Japanese distribution system and practice that seem to make foreign access to the Japanese market significantly more difficult than the access by Japanese exporters to the markets in other industrial countries. Distribution in Japan suffers from overregulation. (iv) Users of manufactured products in Japan are sensitive to quality, perhaps more so, on the average, than in other industrial countries. Does the recent upsurge in Japan's imports of manufactures suggest that the traditional import behavior of Japan is changing? Japan's manufactured imports measured in yen increased by 18 and 27 percent in 1987 and 1988, respectively, and those coming from developing economies increased even more rapidly. There is also some evidence that price and income elasticities of demand for manufactured imports may have increased recently. These are encouraging, but it remains to be seen whether the trends will continue far enough into the future to bring Japan's import behavior more into line with those of other industrial countries. If they do, implications for the market prospects of manufactured exports from developing economies could be far-reaching. Outstanding questions are: (i) How much of the recent increase in manufactured imports is attributable to the appreciation of the yen (price effect)? How much is attributable to the increase in income or industrial output (income effect)? How much is attributable to removal of formal and informal import barriers effected so far (structural change)? Has consumer taste changed? (ii) Why have Latin American countries not been successful in promoting their exports of manufactures to Japan, when Asian exporters have been so successful? (iii) Up until now, the share of developing economies in Japan's manufactured imports has not been particularly low compared with those for other industrial countries, but is this share likely to fall or rise in the future? (iv) What is the likely impact of recently increased direct investment (DFI) by Japanese manufacturers in developing economies on the imports of their products into Japan?     

日本与东盟贸易关系的发展及其问题

近40年来,日本与东盟一直互为重要的贸易伙伴。从上世纪80年代中期至今,双边贸易额剧增,进出口商品结构也发生了显著变化。日本在出口技术密集的高附加值产品的同时,从东盟进口的初级产品比重减少,制成品进口比重迅速增加。但这只是资本全球化、区域经济一体化形势下,部门内非熟练劳动与技术交换的垂直分工形式,并不能说是水平分工。东盟仍是日本重要的资源供应地、生产基地和工业品市场。     

North-South trade: is Africa unusual?

We estimate a gravity model to address the question of whetherAfrica's bilateral trade with industrial countries is 'unusual'compared with other developing country regions. Our main findingis that the unusually low level of African trade is explainedby economic size, geographical distance and population. Thisresult holds after controlling for a country's access to thesea, composition of exports, linguistic ties with industrialcountries and trade policies. If anything, the average Africancountry tends to 'overtrade' compared with developing countriesin other regions, although the degree to which Africa overtradeshad steadily declined over the past two-and-one-half decades.     

河北省产业结构与外贸结构的耦合分析

本文从河北省对外贸易和产业发展现状出发,对产业结构和外贸结构的耦合关系进行了分析,揭示了河北省进出口商品的优势与河北省产业结构之间的关系,并提出了促进河北省产业结构和外贸结构协调发展的对策建议。     

美元汇率对美国进出口商品价格传递率的实证分析

本文实证分析了美元汇率按美国总进出口价格、分段进出口价格、分类商品进出口价格的传递率。实证结果表明,无论美元升值还是贬值,美国的进出口价格指数都会下降,而且美国出口价格的传递率比同期进口价格的传递率要小得多,升值期的传递率也比贬值期的传递率要小;美元升值比贬值对美国经常账户赤字的纠正更有利。因此,建议美国实行美元适度升值的政策,而且要结合其他政策才能改善其巨额经常账户赤字。