世界经济的控制权

GDP总量已达世界第三的中国,下一步经济发展面临的主要挑战是什么？在笔者看来,主要的挑战不是来自外部政治压力,不是来自国际竞争。也不是来自技术与市场封锁,而是来自于中国的内部问题,尤其是不可持续的经济发展方式。     

The old pillars of new retailing

Despite the harsh realities of retailing, the illusion persists that magical tools can help companies overcome the problems of fickle consumers, price-slashing competitors, and mood swings in the economy. Such wishful thinking holds that retailers will thrive if only they communicate better with customers through e-mail, employ hidden cameras to learn how customers make purchase decisions, and analyze scanner data to tailor special offers and manage inventory. But the truth is, there are no quick fixes. In the course of his extensive research on dozens of retailers, Leonard Berry found that the best companies create value for their customers in five interlocking ways. Whether you're running a physical store, a catalog business, an e-commerce site, or a combination of the three, you have to offer your customers superior solutions to their needs, treat them with respect, and connect with them on an emotional level. You also have to set prices fairly and make it easy for people to find what they need, pay for it quickly, and then move on. None of these pillars is new, and each sounds exceedingly simple, but don't be fooled--implementing these axioms in the real world is surprisingly difficult. The author illustrates how some retailers have built successful operations by attending to these commonsense ways of dealing with their customers and how others have failed to do so.     

Managing your boss: a compatible relationship with your superior is essential to being effective in your job

Good managers recognize that a relationship with a boss involves mutual dependence and that, if it is not managed well, they cannot be effective in their jobs. They also recognize that the boss-subordinate relationship is not like the one between a parent and a child, in that the burden for managing the relationship should not and cannot fall entirely on the boss. Bosses are only human; their wisdom and maturity are not always greater than their subordinates'. Effective managers see managing the relationship with the boss as part of their job. As a result, they take time and energy to develop a relationship that is consonant with both persons' styles and assets and that meets the most critical needs of each.     

Transitions in a globalising world

The increasing complexity of our global society means that sustainable development cannot be addressed from a single perspective or scientific discipline. By using the concept of transitions, we examine current and future tensions between welfare, well-being and the environment, and focus on four major issues that are of global importance: two of our key natural resources, water and biodiversity; the health of human populations; and the developments related to global tourism. In our global assessment, we base ourselves on the most recent scenario efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Future developments are explored along the lines of four development paths (scenario groups), defined along two dimensions (global versus regional dynamics and emphasising economic objectives versus environmental and equity objectives.     

Management accounting and control practices in a lean manufacturing environment

A lean strategy is rapidly becoming the dominant paradigm in manufacturing. Kennedy and Widener (2008) use a case study to develop a theoretical framework of management accounting and control practices for firms following a lean manufacturing strategy. We build on Kennedy and Widener (2008) by examining a structural equation model that provides evidence on the extent to which a lean manufacturing implementation is related to five management accounting and control practices. Using survey data from 244 US companies with an interest in lean manufacturing, we find a direct positive relation between the extent of a lean manufacturing implementation and a simplified strategic reporting system, value stream costing, visual performance measurement information, and employee empowerment. We find a direct negative relation with inventory tracking; however, we find it is conditional on the extent of top management support for change in production strategies such that firms decrease reliance on inventory tracking in the presence of strong management support. We also conclude that the management accounting and control practices work together as a package in a lean manufacturing environment as evidenced by the many direct associations among the five management accounting and control practices.     

Nominal contracting in a world of uncertainty

This paper evaluates corporate sensitivity to relative price risk and inflation risk and suggests how the existence of various nominal contracts, particularly debt and forward contracts, may modify firm behavior under uncertainty. By differentiating between the two types of price risk, this paper demonstrates the distinct risk reduction functions served by forward contracts and debt. Debt primarily protects against inflation risk whereas forward contracts can be used to protect against relative price risk. Complications arise, however, because forward contracts, which are denominated in nominal terms, also have an impact on the firm's degree of inflation risk.     

The academy in a wired world

Global demands for tertiary education have been met by a variety of new intellectual entrepreneurs including virtual Megauniversities, corporate universities, and academic ‘brokers'. The coupling of this evolution with the emerging shift to third party evaluation of graduates based on competency, internationally, breaks the hegemony of the traditional post secondary educational institutions. The inter connectivity of the wired world must be seen not only as a link across space, but, more importantly, as a time bridge across generations. Only from this perspective can the tertiary institutions balance their ability to provide long half-life, core or value, knowledge against the more dynamic and changing short half-life knowledge. Traditional roles of academics will split organisationally with a few stellar researchers and lecturers and a majority of faculty becoming mentors. Structured linkages with K-12 institutions and parallel post secondary providers such as corporate universities will change both the structure of the institutions and the role of the ‘scholar' The static ivy covered walls have been breached and post secondary education will become a dynamic and evolving industry.     

Future cities in a warming world

More than half the global population are already urban, and the UN and other organisations expect this share to rise in future. However, some researchers argue that the future of cities is far from assured. Cities are not only responsible for 70% or more of the world's CO₂ emissions, but because of their dense concentration of physical assets and populations, are also more vulnerable than other areas to climate change. This paper attempts to resolve this controversy by first looking at how cities would fare in a world with average global surface temperatures 4 °C above pre-industrial levels. It then looks at possible responses, either by mitigation or adaptation, to the threat such increases would entail. Regardless of the mix of adaptation and mitigation cities adopt in response to climate change, the paper argues that peak urbanism will occur over the next few decades. This fall in the urban share of global population will be driven by the rise in biophysical hazards in cities if the response is mainly adaptation, and by the declining attraction of cities (and possibly the rising attraction of rural areas) if serious mitigation is implemented.     

Communities in a world of open systems

In the past, communities tended to be closed systems with relatively clear boundaries, stable memberships, and few linkages to other communities. We are now entering into an ‘age of open systems.' Mobility creates new communities and kinds of communities. The impacts of mobility are far less than those of information and communications technology. Cyberspace has become a new kind of social terrain, crowded with ‘virtual communities.' Television and radio create communities of people thinking and talking about the same things. Both mobility and the growth of communications networks reduce the predominance of geography as a force in shaping community. Many communities are much more fluid, and some are placeless. There are many different kinds of social groups and networks that people describe with the word ‘community.' Most people are multi-community individuals, with many memberships, and many kinds of memberships. Although the world's major religions still have some historic identification with specific regions, those geographic attachments are no longer as clear as they once were, and these religions are tending to become open systems. Some people prefer relatively closed social systems, while others flourish in freer environments. Choice is one of the most powerful forces in the lives of people being exposed to the forces of globalization. Community will continue to be a profound human need but will be redefined, perhaps many times over.     

Exchange rate predictability in a changing world

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world, however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using Taylor rules with Time-Varying Parameters (TVP) estimated by Bayesian methods. Focusing on the data from the crisis, we improve upon the random walk for at least half, and for as many as seven out of 10, of the currencies considered. Results are stronger when we allow the TVP of the Taylor rules to differ between countries.     

Modelling and prediction in a complex world

A complex system is an entity, coherent in some recognisable way but whose elements, interactions, and dynamics generate structures and admit surprise and novelty that cannot be defined a priori. Complex systems are more than the sum of their parts, and a consequence of this is that any model of their structure is necessarily incomplete and partial. Models thus represent simplifications in which salient parts and processes are simulated, and given this definition, many models will exist of any particular system. In this chapter, we explore the impact of this complexity on validating models of such systems. We begin with definitions and then identify key issues as being concerned with the characterisation of system equilibrium, system environment, and the way systems and their elements extend and scale. As our perspective on these issues changes, then so do our models with implications for their testing and validation. We argue that changes in the meaning of validity, posed by the use to which such models are to be put, are central to this debate, drawing these ideas together as conclusions about the limits posed to prediction in complex systems.     

Public service ethics in a changing world

The past 25 years have seen profound changes in the management and delivery of public services throughout the UK and elsewhere. Such developments, known as New Public Management (NPM) have taken hold, to a greater or lesser extent, in many OECD countries. These developments have had an impact upon the ethics of public service in a number of different ways. This paper explores four themes arising from these developments, i.e. (1) regulatory regimes and performance; (2) changing organisational structures, relationships and partnerships; (3) the public service ethos and (4) individual virtue.The themes are located within a complex set of mutual relationships involving individuals, organisations, government and society. Ethical behaviour will reflect a balance between these relationships, expressed in decisions taken within a ‘problem space’ characteristic of public services.     

Coordination of fiscal policies in a world economy

This paper provides a simple counterexample to the standard belief that in a world economy in which all countries are small, strategic interactions between policymarkers are trivial and thus cooperative and non-cooperative government policies coincide. It is well known that this holds for tariff policies. However, this paper demonstrates the result does not apply to fiscal policy. In addition, the paper analyzes how optimally coordinated fiscal policies differ from non-cooperative policies. It finds that, relative to optimally coordinated levels, non-cooperative government spending can be too high or too low, depending on the sign of a transmission effect which captures the overall effect countries' actions have on each other.     

Make your company a talent factory

Despite the great sums of money companies dedicate to talent management systems, many still struggle to fill key positions - limiting their potential for growth in the process. Virtually all the human resource executives in the authors' 2005 survey of 40 companies around the world said that their pipeline of high-potential employees was insufficient to fill strategic management roles. The survey revealed two primary reasons for this. First, the formal procedures for identifying and developing next-generation leaders have fallen out of sync with what companies need to grow or expand into new markets. To save money, for example, some firms have eliminated positions that would expose high-potential employees to a broad range of problems, thus sacrificing future development opportunities that would far outweigh any initial savings from the job cuts. Second, HR executives often have trouble keeping top leaders' attention on talent issues, despite those leaders' vigorous assertions that obtaining and keeping the best people is a major priority. If passion for that objective doesn't start at the top and infuse the culture, say the authors, talent management can easily deteriorate into the management of bureaucratic routines. Yet there are companies that can face the future with confidence. These firms don't just manage talent, they build talent factories. The authors describe the experiences of two such corporations - consumer products icon Procter & Gamble and financial services giant HSBC Group -that figured out how to develop and retain key employees and fill positions quickly to meet evolving business needs. Though each company approached talent management from a different direction, they both maintained a twin focus on functionality (rigorous talent processes that support strategic and cultural objectives) and vitality (management's emotional commitment, which is reflected in daily actions).     

Where value lives in a networked world

While many management thinkers proclaim an era of radical uncertainty, authors Sawhney and Parikh assert that the seemingly endless upheavals of the digital age are more predictable than that: today's changes have a common root, and that root lies in the nature of intelligence in networks. Understanding the patterns of intelligence migration can help companies decipher and plan for the inevitable disruptions in today's business environment. Two patterns in network intelligence are reshaping industries and organizations. First, intelligence is decoupling--that is, modern high-speed networks are pushing back-end intelligence and front-end intelligence toward opposite ends of the network, making the ends the two major sources of potential profits. Second, intelligence is becoming more fluid and modular. Small units of intelligence now float freely like molecules in the ether, coalescing into temporary bundles whenever and wherever necessary to solve problems. The authors present four strategies that companies can use to profit from these patterns: arbitrage allows companies to move intelligence to new regions or countries where the cost of maintaining intelligence is lower; aggregation combines formerly isolated pieces of infrastructure intelligence into a large pool of shared infrastructure provided over a network; rewiring allows companies to connect islands of intelligence by creating common information backbones; and reassembly allows businesses to reorganize pieces of intelligence into coherent, personalized packages for customers. By being aware of patterns in network intelligence and by acting rather than reacting, companies can turn chaos into opportunity, say the authors.     

Why mentoring matters in a hypercompetitive world

Professional service firms (PSFs), like so many other companies, are juggling the modern challenges of global competition, increased regulation, and rapid employee turnover. In a people-oriented industry, attrition has special import. DeLong and Gabarro, of Harvard Business School, along with former Morgan Stanley and Ernst & Young executive Lees, argue that a PSF can gain a much-needed competitive edge by renewing its focus on mentoring. The authors' in-depth interviews with professionals from more than 30 PSFs have yielded four principles for firms to heed as they rediscover this lost art. First, mentoring is personal. Rather than relying on standardized programs, mentors must frequently--and fairly--provide authentic advice and nurturing. Partners at PSFs know how to use their ample people skills effectively with clients; the benefits of using them with junior colleagues are even greater. Second, not everyone is an A player. A small dose of attention given to a B player goes at least as far as a large one offered to an A player. Since B players constitute about 70% of PSF staff, that's time well spent. Third, choice assignments are in short supply, which limits the number of learning opportunities available for associates. Good alternatives include shadowing senior professionals on assignments and taking on research or other projects that are not client-related but that nonetheless build expertise. Finally, mentoring is a two-way street. Protégés should not only learn from their senior counterparts, but also be taught to attract mentors--and to co-mentor one another.     

Welcome to a non-Black-Scholes world

Jean-Phillipe Bouchaud and Marc Potters, citing option markets and risk awareness, challenge the view that the Black-Scholes model needs little improvement - in fact, it should be seen as a special case of a more general theory.