Multivariate GARCH hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness in Australian futures markets

We use the All Ordinaries Index and the corresponding Share Price Index futures contract written against the All Ordinaries Index to estimate optimal hedge ratios, adopting several specifications: an ordinary least squares‐based model, a vector autoregression, a vector error‐correction model and a diagonal‐vec multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model. Hedging effectiveness is measured using a risk‐return comparison and a utility maximization method. We find that time‐varying generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity hedge ratios perform better than constant hedge ratios in terms of minimizing risks, but when return effects are also considered, the utility‐based measure prefers the ordinary least squares method in the in‐sample hedge, whilst both approaches favour the conditional time‐varying multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity hedge ratio estimates in out‐of‐sample analyses.     

Ethical and unethical investments under extreme market conditions

This study investigates the time-varying volatility and risk measures of ethical and unethical investments. We apply the Bayesian Markov-switching generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MS-GARCH) approach to compute the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of ethical and unethical indices returns, which allows for detecting the differences between ethical and unethical investments. The innovative finding of our study is that ethical investments are less affected during global financial crises compared with unethical and conventional investments. The policy implication of this study is that investors should consider ethical investments as a hedging asset for their portfolios during extreme market conditions.     

Analyzing hedging strategies for fixed income portfolios: A Bayesian approach for model selection

During the recent European sovereign debt crisis, returns on EMU government bond portfolios experienced substantial volatility clustering, leptokurtosis and skewed returns as well as correlation spikes. Asset managers invested in European government bonds had to derive new hedging strategies to deal with changing return properties and higher levels of uncertainty. In this environment, conditional time series approaches such as GARCH models might be better suited to achieve a superior hedging performance relative to unconditional hedging approaches such as OLS. The aim of this study is to test innovative hedging strategies for EMU bond portfolios for non-crisis and crisis periods. We analyze single and composite hedges with the German Bund and the Italian BTP futures contracts and evaluate the hedging effectiveness in an out-of-sample setting. The empirical analysis includes OLS, constant conditional correlation (CCC), and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) multivariate GARCH models. We also introduce a Bayesian composite hedging strategy, attempting to combine the strengths of OLS and GARCH models, thereby endogenizing the dilemma of selecting the best estimation model. Our empirical results demonstrate that the Bayesian composite hedging strategy achieves the highest hedging effectiveness and compares particularly favorable to OLS during the recent sovereign debt crisis. However, capturing these benefits requires low transactions cost and efficiently functioning futures markets.     

Shock and Volatility Transmission in the Futures and Spot Markets: Evidence from Turkish Markets

This paper examines the volatility transmission mechanism between the futures and corresponding underlying asset spot markets, focusing on Turkish currency and stock index futures traded on the lately established Turkish Derivatives Exchange (TURKDEX). Employing multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity modeling, which allows for potential spillovers and asymmetries in the variance-covariance structure for the market returns, the paper investigates the volatility interactions among each of the three futures-spot market systems. For all market systems under study, the volatility spillovers are found to be important and bidirectional. For the stock index market system, in line with the previous literature, volatility shows asymmetric behavior and strong asymmetric shock transmission. The main implication is that investors need to account for volatility spillovers and asymmetries among the futures and the spot markets to correctly build hedging strategies.     

Hedging role of stablecoins

Wild price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies make it difficult for investors to maintain stable asset values. This study investigates the hedging properties of US dollar (USD)-pegged stablecoins against bitcoin returns. We analyzed the hedging abilities of the three largest stablecoins—namely, Tether, USD Coin, and Binance USD—using the dynamic conditional correlation–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, dummy variable regression, vector autoregression, and impulse response functions. We found that stablecoins are generally negatively correlated with bitcoin returns, indicating that they can be effective hedging instruments against high-volatility crypto assets. Among the stablecoins, Binance USD offers the largest risk reduction, and Tether was a weak safe haven during the COVID-19 crisis period. Crypto investors can diversify their portfolios by holding stablecoins.     

Hedging with Chinese metal futures

This paper evaluates different hedging strategies for aluminum and copper futures contracts traded at Shanghai Futures Exchange. In addition to usual candidates such as the traditional regression hedge ratio and the hedging strategy constructed from bivariate fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BFIGARCH) model, two advanced specifications are proposed to account for impacts of the basis on market volatility and co-movements between spot and futures returns. Empirical results suggest that the basis has asymmetric effects and optimal hedging strategy constructed from the asymmetric BFIGARCH model tends to produce the best in-sample and out-of-sample hedging performance.     

Currency futures market in India: an empirical analysis of market efficiency and volatility

As the Indian currency futures market has been in existence for over 7 years, this paper analyses the effectiveness of the 1-month USD/INR currency futures rates in predicting the expected spot rate. The volatility of the USD/INR spot returns was also analysed. Modelling volatility of the USD/INR spot rate using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model indicated the presence of volatility clustering. Using multivariate GARCH models such as the constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation, signs of a volatility spillover between the USD/INR spot and currency futures market were also observed.     

Are They Hedgers or Speculators? Evidence from South Korea's Political Elections

This study uses a simultaneous equation model based on a three-stage least squares estimation to offer new empirical evidence that investors are hedgers or speculators during South Korea's elections. Major investor groups include individuals, securities companies, and foreigners in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI 200) market. The results show that cash market volatility and futures market activity have lead behaviors with one another. However, the contemporaneous variables of cash market volatility and options market activity have only unidirectional causality. Most investors will trade futures and options contracts for speculating within the entire sample period. During political election periods, investors prefer to trade options contracts for hedging rather than futures contracts.     

Optimal futures hedging under jump switching dynamics

The article develops a Markov regime switching Generalized Orthogonal GARCH model with conditional jump dynamics (JSGO) for optimal futures hedging. To the author's knowledge, there is no existing study on dynamic futures hedging investigating both the effects of regime switching and conditional jumps. This might be the fact that there is no existing hedging model encompassing both of these features. The JSGO solves this problem by introducing a jump switching filtering algorithm to infer ex post both the distributions of jumps and state variables and a recombining procedure to solve the path-dependency problem. To justify the usefulness of the JSGO on dynamic futures hedging, hedging exercises are performed using FTSE 100 futures data traded in the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE). JSGO exhibits good out-of-sample performance compared to its jump-free and state-independent counterparts in terms of both criteria of variance reductions and utility improvements.     

Safe havens in Islamic financial markets: COVID-19 versus GFC

Using a bivariate dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, this study compares the safe-haven properties of various assets against the major Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock indexes during two periods of financial turmoil, the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Sovereign bonds offered the highest hedging benefits under both crises. The traditional safe assets, gold and silver, which were reasonably productive under the GFC, have been less so during the pandemic. The Japanese yen emerged as a very safe choice for investors holding GCC stock indexes. Both sector indexes and stock indexes failed to safeguard investors most of the time during each crisis.     

Size effect,methodological issues and ‘risk-to-default’: evidence from the UK stock market

The hedging effectiveness of dynamic strategies is compared with static (traditional) ones using futures contracts for the five leading currencies. The traditional hedging model assumes time invariance in the joint distribution of spot and futures price changes thus leading to a constant optimal hedge ratio (OHR). However, if this time-invariance assumption is violated, time-varying OHRs are appropriate for hedging purposes. A bivariate GARCH model is employed to estimate the joint distribution of spot and futures currency returns and the sequence of dynamic (time-varying) OHRs is constructed based upon the estimated parameters of the conditional covariance matrix. The empirical evidence strongly supports time-varying OHRs but the dynamic model provides superior out-of-sample hedging performance, compared to the static model, only for the Canadian dollar.     

Hedging with futures: Efficacy of GARCH correlation models to European electricity markets

European electricity markets have been subject to a broad deregulation process in the last few decades. We analyse hedging policies implemented through different hedge ratios estimation. More specifically we compare naïve, ordinary least squares, and GARCH conditional variance and correlations models to test if GARCH models lead to higher variance reduction in a context of high time varying volatility as the case of electricity markets. Our results show that the choice of the hedge ratio estimation model is central on determining the effectiveness of futures hedging to reduce the portfolio volatility.     

Regime switching correlation hedging

This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of commodity futures when the correlations of spot and futures returns are subject to multi-state regime shifts. An independent switching dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IS-DCC) which is free from the problems of path-dependency and recombining is applied to model multi-regime switching correlations. The results of hedging exercises indicate that state-dependent IS-DCC outperforms state-independent DCC GARCH and three-state IS-DCC exhibits superior hedging effectiveness, illustrating importance of modeling higher-state switching correlations for dynamic futures hedging.     

Information,hedging demand,and institutional investors: Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Exchange

This paper examines the effect of hedging demand by various types of institutional investor on subsequent returns and volatility. Using data from the Taiwan Futures Exchange, empirical results indicate that the hedging demand of foreign investors has a significant negative impact on subsequent returns and volatility. In addition, trading strategies based on the extreme hedging demand of foreigners are positively correlated with trading performance. Furthermore, there is evidence to show that returns (volatility) also affect the subsequent hedging demand of foreign investors, suggesting a feedback relation. Finally, the hedging demand of foreign investors has a greater impact on subsequent returns and volatility after global financial turmoil. Accordingly, this paper concludes that foreign investors are informed hedgers in the Taiwan futures market, especially after global financial turmoil.     

Selectively hedging the Euro

Previous research has documented that hedging currency exposures improves the performance of the international portfolios of US investors, while no such improvement occurs for non-US investors. We show, however, that this may have changed, in that Euro exchange rates exhibit a great deal more correlation than was demonstrated by French Franc exchange rates or German Mark exchange rates. Furthermore, we examine the efficacy of several selective hedging strategies for hedging the Euro. All of the conditional hedging strategies we examine outperform strategies which never hedge and those which always hedge. The best performing conditional hedging strategy is the forward hedge rule, which stipulates that one hedge only when the forward rate is at a premium.     

Combining the Effects of OLS and Spread on Futures Hedging: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Index

Abstract:

This study proposes a dynamic hedge ratio, the combined ordinary least squares spread (COLSS), which combines the hedge ratio of ordinary least squares and the value of spread. Using this dynamic ratio for hedging with futures contracts, one can replace spot risk with spread risk. The COLSS captures not only the long-run equilibrium between spot and futures returns, but also the short-run deviation from equilibrium. The spread is forecast by one-period lagged stock market factors and high-order moments that are estimated by an options model. In the in-sample and out-of-sample tests, the COLSS strategy achieves significant risk reduction and outperforms the alternative models by a large utility improvement.     

Chinese jigsaw: Solving the equity market response to the COVID-19 crisis: Do alternative asset provide effective hedging performance?

Against COVID-19 risks, this paper examines the hedging performance of alternative assets including some financial assets and commodities futures for the Chinese stock market in a multi-scale setting. Dynamic conditional correlations and optimal hedge ratios of the Shanghai stock exchange with Bitcoin, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gold, WTI, Bonds and VIX returns are estimated before and during the pandemic crisis. In the short-term, the use of wavelet decomposition shows that Bitcoin provides the best hedge to the Shanghai stock market. In the long-term, commodities dominate. Whereas WTI offers the highest hedging effectiveness, Gold ranks second by a slight margin. These results allow investors to choose the highest returns and protecting tail risk during the current sanitary crisis. Our findings suggest particularly more pronounced economic benefit of diversification including alternative financial assets while commodities futures serve as good hedge assets especially during unpredictable crisis like the current sanitary crisis relating to the covid-19.     

The use and abuse of the hedging effectiveness measure

Ederington (1979) proposed an effectiveness measure for futures hedging. Since then, this measure has been widely adopted in the literature to compare different hedge ratios against the OLS (ordinary least squares) hedge ratio. This note attempts to demonstrate this application is inappropriate. Ederington hedging effectiveness is only useful for measuring the risk reduction effect of the OLS hedge ratio. It does not apply to other hedge ratios and therefore should not serve as a criterion to compare different hedge strategies against the OLS strategy. A strict application of this measure almost always leads to an incorrect conclusion stating that the OLS hedge ratio is the best hedging strategy.     

恒生指数和沪深300股指期货套期保值效果对比研究

本文利用OLS、ECM、ECM-GARCH模型对沪深300股指期货和恒生指数期货的最优套期保值率进行了估算,并在风险最小化框架下对它们的套期保值效果进行了对比研究。结果发现:无论是哪种股指期货,不考虑期现货间存在的协整关系会使估算的最优套期保值率偏高,影响套期保值效果;其次是虽然在样本内外,沪深300股指期货的套期保值效果比恒生指数期货的好,但是沪深300股指期货套期保值效果的稳定性比恒生指数差。此时,ECM-GARCH和OLS模型分别为样本内外投资者利用沪深300指数期货进行套期保值时的最佳选择;对于恒生指数股指期货,最优模型是ECM。     

Volatility spillover and investment strategies among sustainability-related financial indexes: Evidence from the DCC-GARCH-based dynamic connectedness and DCC-GARCH t-copula approach

This study analyzes the dynamic connectedness between the ESG stock index, the renewable energy stock index, the green bond stock index, the sustainability stock index, and the carbon emission futures by employing a novel method: the DCC-GARCH-based dynamic connectedness approach. Given the strong volatility spillover among these indexes, we adopt the DCC-GARCH t-copula model to calculate these indexes' hedging ratios and portfolio weights. Our findings show that the carbon emission futures are the volatility transmitter, and the green bond is the volatility receiver. The total dynamic connectedness is affected by international political, economic, and other events. Furthermore, for stock market volatility investors, taking the long position in carbon emission futures and the short position in renewable energy stock can achieve the highest hedging effect.