Discussion of “Conservatism, growth and return on investment”

Providing data for the measurement of financial performance is a key objective of financial reporting. Rajan, Reichelstein, and Soliman (2007, Conservatism, growth and return on investment, Review of Accounting Studies, this issue) provide new insights into the well known biases involved in measuring return on investment (ROI) on the basis of accrual accounting. They analyze the relationships among ROIs, growth rates, accrual policies and cash flow profiles in a fairly general steadystate model (only the last parameter is severely restricted). New and interesting results outside steady-state are presented as well. In the empirical part of the paper Rajan et al. demonstrate that the biases involved are systematic and economically significant. Hence empiricists must pay attention (whatever their sample sizes). Hopefully this paper will generate renewed interest in the analytical aspects of accrual accounting.     

Minimum return guarantees,investment caps,and investment flexibility

We study the merits of capped retirement products with guarantee for investors who have the flexibility to dynamically adjust their investment strategy. All contracts under consideration are fairly priced such that the net profit of the provider is zero. Without the rider, an expected utility maximizing CRRA investor does not want an investment cap. Here, she commits herself to a strategy a priori. With the flexibility rider, the optimization problem changes and the optimal strategy is a response to an exogenously set price. A fair pricing then anticipates the optimal response of the investor. We show that the maximum expected utility of the investor can, for anticipated fairly priced products, be obtained for a finite cap. Thus, a capped product design can give a Pareto improvement to the otherwise uncapped contract version.     

Financial accounting return on investment and financial leverage

This note presents a method for teaching the concept of financial leverage and its relationship to accounting rates of return. Typically, financial leverage is only briefly mentioned in introductory accounting textbooks, and it is rarely related explicitly to rates of return on total assets and on common stockholders' equity. Yet the concept is an important one for financial managers. We have developed and class tested a numerical illustration to explain in a conceptually sound manner why the two rates of return differ. Accounting instructors who share our view that financial leverage should be covered more thoroughly in the introductory accounting course will find this example to be a useful supplement. The example can also be used as a way to develop critical thinking skills or to enhance a user orientation.     

Finance,investment, and growth

This paper examines the relation between the institutional structures of advanced OECD countries and the comparative growth and investment of 27 industries in those countries over the period 1970 to 1995. The paper reports a strong relation between the structure of countries’ financial systems, the characteristics of industries, and the growth and investment of industries in different countries.     

Traditional investment versus absolute return programmes

Hilary Till and Joseph Eagleeye argue that the differences between the hedge-fund and traditional-investment industries arise from competing views of the key sources of investment returns.     

Capital taxation,investment, growth,and welfare

This paper formulates a model of economic growth to study the effects of broad capital taxation (of profits, dividends, and capital gains) on macroeconomic outcomes in small open economies. A framework of exogenous growth permits modeling countries in transition to a country-specific steady state and to discern steady-state and transitory effects of shocks on economic outcomes. The chosen framework is amenable to structural estimation and, in view of the parsimony of the model, fits data on 79 countries over the period 1996–2011 well. The counterfactual analysis based on the estimated model suggests that capital-tax reductions induce positive effects on output and the capital stock (per unit of effective labor) that are economically significant and are accommodated within time windows of 5 years without much further economic response after that. The responses of economic aggregates are found to be relatively strongest to changes in corporate-profit-tax rates and weaker for dividend and capital-gains taxes.     

Limits-to-arbitrage, investment frictions, and the asset growth anomaly

We empirically evaluate the predictions of the mispricing hypothesis with limits-to-arbitrage suggested by Shleifer and Vishny (1997) and the q-theory with investment frictions proposed by Li and Zhang (2010) on the negative relation between asset growth and average stock returns. We conduct cross-sectional regressions of returns on asset growth on subsamples split by a given measure of limits-to-arbitrage or investment frictions. We show that: (i) proxies for limits-to-arbitrage and proxies for investment frictions are often highly correlated; (ii) the evidence based on equal-weighted returns shows significant support for both hypotheses, while the evidence from value-weighted returns is weaker; and (iii) in direct comparisons, each hypothesis is supported by a fair and similar amount of evidence.     

Art as an investment: risk, return and portfolio diversification in major painting markets

The present paper examines risk, return and the prospects for portfolio diversification among major painting and financial markets over the period 1976–2001. The art markets examined are Contemporary Masters, French Impressionists, Modern European, 19th Century European, Old Masters, Surrealists, 20th Century English and Modern US paintings. The financial markets comprise US Treasury bills, corporate and government bonds and small and large company stocks. In common with the published literature in this area, the present study finds that the returns on paintings are much lower and the risks much higher than conventional investment markets. Moreover, while low correlations of returns suggest that opportunities for portfolio diversification in art works alone and in conjunction with equity markets exist, the construction of Markowitz mean‐variance efficient portfolios indicates that no diversification gains are provided by art in financial asset portfolios. However, diversification benefits in portfolios comprised solely of art works are possible, with Contemporary Masters, 19th Century European, Old Masters and 20th Century English paintings dominating the efficient frontier during the period in question.     

Profitability of return and sentiment-based investment strategies in US futures markets

Our study adds to the literature by providing initial evidence on the interaction between short-horizon return predictability and investors’ sentiment by traders’ types on US commodity futures market. We find that the short-term contrarian profit is more associated with an increase rather than a decrease in hedgers’ sentiment. However, the interaction between lagged return and past change in speculators’ sentiment illustrates that the short-term contrarian profit is more associated with a decrease rather than an increase in sentiment. Based on behavioral finance theories, we conclude that hedgers behave like irrational traders while speculators behave like rational ones. Using Chou et al. (2007) decomposition, our results confirm the obtained relations between change in trader's sentiment and the overreaction. By expanding this decomposition, we find that the winners’ portfolio tends to more overreact with futures specific information. Also, the cross-autocorrelation between winners and losers and between losers and winners can represent another source of contrarian profits.     

Conservatism,SEC investigation,and fraud

We present evidence on the relationship between firms that have engaged in fraudulent financial reporting and accounting conservatism. We empirically investigate the extent to which US firms identified by the SEC in their Enforcement Releases demonstrate higher levels of conditional conservatism in order to mitigate information asymmetry and agency problems. Specifically, by assessing the timing of changes in the litigation risk environment for fraud firms, we document how differences in heightened legal liability guide changes in conservative accounting behavior. Compared to a matched non-fraud control sample, we document that fraud firms have significantly lower levels of accounting conservatism in the pre-fraud period. Consistent with changes in potential legal liability, we find an increase in accounting conservatism for fraud firms during the SEC investigation period. Subsequently, during the public discovery of fraud, any increases in accounting conservatism are marginal and appear to converge back to lower levels compared to the SEC investigation period. Overall, our findings suggest more temporary changes in conservative reporting in the short-term for fraud firms. We also document that increased levels of accounting conservatism for fraud firms are not due solely to the passage of the SOX Act. Our findings aid in explaining fraud firms’ incentives and opportunities for accounting conservatism and lend support for why standard setters, regulators and auditors should continue to monitor and re-evaluate conservatism’s short-term effects that are conditioned on changes in a firm’s risk environment.     

不确定性、会计稳健性与分析师盈余预测

文章在考察企业不确定因素对分析师盈余预测产生影响的基础上,重点分析和检验企业会计稳健性对这一关系的调节效应。研究显示,一方面,不确定因素的增多会导致分析师盈余预测误差和预测分歧度的增大;另一方面,公司在预测年份里的会计稳健性总体上有助于降低不确定因素对分析师盈余预测的不利影响。文章将预测年份里的会计稳健性进一步区分为"持续稳健"和"非持续稳健"之后发现,并非所有在预测年份里表现稳健的公司,其稳健性就能遏制不确定性对分析师预测的不利影响,而是只有"持续稳健"能够有效抑制不确定性加剧分析师预测误差和预测分歧度的趋势,"非持续稳健"则没能发挥上述作用。     

Predicting base station return on investment in the telecommunications industry: Machine-learning approaches

Investment in the right location ensures sustainable competition. In the telecommunication sector, the number of base stations (BSs) is one of the most significant investment parameters. When a potential BS is subject to be selected, practitioners will first consider investing in a BS where the return on investment (ROI) is highest. Therefore, the quantifiable objectives are distinctly defined, as it makes sense to choose maximizing features that raise per unit investment. This study provides a solution to evaluate the best BS installation alternative with machine-learning approaches as well as to estimate ROI value by changing the properties that affect the ROI value. For this purpose, the estimation performance of logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost methods are compared and further strengthened by random forest hyperparameter optimization to provide the best performance. The model, with a success rate of 98.7% according to the $F$-score, showed that it was a robust algorithm. The three most essential features for the ROI value are determined to be voice traffic, data traffic, and frequency cost. These parameters enable a review of the prediction results of telecommunications managers and planning specialists responsible for BS investment.     

过度投资、投资效果与会计稳健性

与已有研究不同,本文结合投资规模和投资效果来界定过度投资,并将会计稳健性区分为条件稳健和非条件稳健,以研究过度投资与会计稳健性的相互关系.通过对我国2007-20013年A股上市公司样本的分析,本文发现在结合投资规模和投资效果来界定过度投资的情况下,过度投资和会计稳健性的相互影响明显比仅仅根据投资规模来界定过度投资的情形更显著,而且更为精确.与价值(业绩)上升企业相比,价值(业绩)下降企业的条件稳健性对过度投资具有更强的治理作用,而价值(业绩)下降企业的过度投资行为对非条件稳健性产生了显著的负向影响.     

Corporate Lobbying,Visibility and Accounting Conservatism

In this study, we examine the relationship between a firm's lobbying activities and financial reporting quality using a US setting where public scrutiny of corporate political activities is high. More importantly, we examine whether and how a firm's visibility shapes the relationship between its corporate lobbying activities and accounting conservatism. Adopting annual lobbying expenditure data to measure firms’ lobbying activities, and using a propensity‐score‐matching methodology to control for differences in firm characteristics between lobbying and non‐lobbying firms, we find a positive relationship between a firm's lobbying intensity and the degree of accounting conservatism in its financial reporting. We further find this positive relationship to be more pronounced in lobbying firms with a higher level of visibility. These results are robust after controlling for a firm's political connections, across various conditional conservatism measures, and across a number of visibility measures including firm size, the number of analysts following the firm, the age of the firm, the number of foreign stock exchanges that the firm is cross‐listed in, and the level of the firm's media coverage. Together, our findings add to the literature on how firms’ political activities shape their accounting practices in general, and accounting conservatism in particular. More importantly, our findings suggest that the heightened public attention paid to political activities in the US yields incentives for firms to be more conservative in their accounting practices.     

China-european railway,investment heterogeneity,and the quality of urban economic growth

The opening of the China-European railway is an important part of infrastructure connectivity in China's “One Belt, One Road” initiative. This paper analyzes the impact of the opening of the China-European railway on the quality of urban economic growth by using the opening of the China-European railway as a natural experiment. First, this study found that the opening of the China-European railway has had a significant positive impact on the quality of urban economic growth. Second, that the effect of the opening of the China-European railway on the economic growth quality of cities along the route is more obvious in cities with greater government financial support and a higher degree of marketization. Third, that the opening of the China-European railway provides a new platform for Chinese enterprises to “go global” and stimulates their development by increasing the volume and scale of outward foreign direct investment. Moreover, it has effectively promoted the quality of China's urban economic growth. Therefore, the government should play a prominent role in guiding and encouraging enterprises to take advantage of the opening of the China-European railway to conduct outward foreign direct investment.     

资产替代、会计稳健性与债权人保护

"资产替代"是股东债权人冲突的主要表现形式之一,在实证分析中通常用过度投资来表示.稳健的会计政策能从事前和事后两方面减少股东和管理层的过度投资倾向,从而减少了债务契约中的资产替代行为,保护债权人的权益.本文的实证研究表明,截面的会计稳健性具有真实的投资效应,抑制了非理性的过度投资倾向.经过分样本的实证检验发现,会计稳健性抑制过度投资的作用只存在于非政府控制的样本中,地方政府控制削弱了会计稳健性保护债权人利益的作用.     

会计稳健性、融资约束与投资效率

会计稳健性是一项备受争议的会计信息质量要求,考虑到我国企业普遍受融资约束影响的背景,本文以2007-2015年A股上市公司为样本,实证检验了会计稳健性、融资约束及投资效率之间的关系。研究发现:(1)会计稳健性对投资过度和投资不足均具有抑制作用,融资约束会抑制投资过度而加剧投资不足;(2)融资约束加强了会计稳健性对投资过度的抑制作用,二者在一定程度上存在协同效应;(3)融资约束加强了会计稳健性对投资不足的抑制作用,会计稳健性表现出治理效应。本文揭示了会计稳健性与融资约束的交互作用对投资效率的影响机制,从而提供了改善投资效率的有效途径,证明了会计稳健性存在的必要性,有利于为企业的决策提供理论指引。     

所有权性质、CEO任期与会计稳健性

以高阶理论为基础,运用声誉机制理论、任期五阶段模型、任职期限理论、职业生涯关注等相关理论,以我国2010~2014年 A 股上市公司为样本,实证研究了 CEO 现有任期和预期任期对会计稳健性的影响,并进一步研究了产权性质差异对两者关系的调节效应。研究发现,CEO 现有任期与会计稳健性呈倒U 型关系,CEO 预期任期与会计稳健性正相关。与非国有上市公司相比,在国有上市公司中,CEO 现有任期和预期任期对会计稳健性的影响都更强。