信息不对称、道德风险与市场纪律——国际金融监管新趋势的模型解析

信息披露不充分的金融市场上,单纯的资本充足率监管无法有效地控制银行的道德风险。一个有效的监管制度还有赖于市场纪律的约束。本文在对20世纪金融监管历史进行简要回顾的基础上,运用信息经济学的有关原理,对当前的国际金融监管发展的新趋势进行模型分析,并对其政策含义进行初步的探讨。     

人民币债券市场准入问题研究

本文运用博弈论和信息经济学的相关理论,对境外机构发行人民币债券的市场准入问题进行了静态和动态博弈分析。文章求解了不完全信息下的贝叶斯纳什均衡和精炼贝叶斯均衡,对人民币债券市场准入中的现实问题进行了理论阐述和证明,并讨论了境外机构在境内发行人民币债券的各种影响。     

Stock market development and economic growth in Belgium

This paper investigates the long-term relationship between financial market development and economic development in Belgium. We use a new data set of stock market development indicators to argue that financial market development substantially affected economic growth. We find strong evidence that stock market development caused economic growth in Belgium, especially in the period between 1873 and 1935. Institutional changes affecting the stock exchange explain the time-varying nature of the link between stock market development and economic growth.     

中国上市公司业绩增长持续性及市场预测

上市公司的业绩增长能力对公司价值具有非常显著的影响,投资者希望找到市场上具有持续稳定成长性的公司。本文考察了公司业绩的增长水平,业绩增长的持续性以及市场对公司业绩增长的预测能力。本文发现公司业绩增长不具有持续性,呈现较大的波动性,投资者无法通过公司历史业绩增长情况预测未来业绩增长。市场对公司的未来业绩增长的预测能力较弱,只能预测大约未来3年时间的业绩增长情况,对更长时间的业绩增长无法预测。这可能与中国股市政策变动频繁,上市公司存在较多利润操纵行为有关。     

机制创新和多元化选择:培育农村金融市场的路径

农村金融市场是以市场为基础优化资金配置的重要融资场所。培育和发展农村金融市场,对进一步推进农村市场化、现代化具有重大的理论和现实意义。本文研究了社会主义新农村建设与农村金融的关系以及农村金融市场的功能定位,分析了农村金融市场存在的问题,提出了加快培育农村金融市场的路径选择。     

Rise of the gold market in China: liberalisation and market development

The Chinese gold market is rapidly rising to global prominence in the recent decades. The paper reviews the history of the gold market in China and its liberalisation process amid the country’s opening to the outside world. Details of the current market structure and its main business are presented. Global impacts of the rise of the Chinese gold market are discussed.     

Intra- and international commodity market integration in the Atlantic economy, 1800-1913

In this paper, the course of intra- and international market integration in the nineteenth century Atlantic economy is investigated. The most fundamental contribution of the paper is in consistently sketching the course of commodity market integration over the long run. Additionally, this study suggests that the nineteenth century has been somewhat misread in terms of the development of markets as the evidence, especially on price convergence, points to dramatic improvements in intra- and international market integration in the years prior to the mid-century. A collective task for economic historians, then, is to link these developments with the revolutionary commercial and technological developments of the post-1850 period.     

Bank market power, economic growth and financial stability: Evidence from Asian banks

This paper examines whether Asian banks are still prone to moral hazard in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian crisis. Using a sample of commercial banks from 12 Asian countries during the 2001–2007 period, our empirical findings highlight that greater market power in the banking market results in higher instability. Although banks are better capitalized in less competitive markets their default risk remains higher. A deeper investigation however shows that such behaviour is dependent on the economic environment. Higher economic growth contributes to neutralize greater risk taking and higher instability in less competitive markets.     

新股短期价格表现研究评述

新股抑价是证券发行市场普遍存在的一个谜题,许多学者提出各种理论进行解释。本文从信息不对称、信息完全和市场无效率三方面对这些理论进行梳理,借此对研究我国股票市场异常行为提供一些思考。     

广东经济增长及其影响因素分析

本文通过索洛-米德模型和广东的历年经济统计数据,对广东经济增长的影响因素进行了分析。分析结果表明,资本投入仍然是广东经济增长的主要带动因素,科学技术水平对经济增长的贡献份额仍然较低,广东要实现经济长期的、高水平的发展,必须大力推动科技进步及其在经济活动中的作用。     

股市信息传播特点与制约机制

在当前我国股市信息的传播过程中,不良信息过剩、优质信息匮乏,两级传播特征明显,意见领袖发挥作用,信息特权者与信息弱势群体存在信息落差。应建立有效的股市信息传播制约机制,以完善的制度与有力的监督保障股市信息的良性传播。     

贵州省资本市场发展与区域经济增长关系的实证研究

运用V A R模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解及格兰杰因果检验对贵州省资本市场发展与区域经济增长的相互关系进行了实证研究。结果显示:资本化率的提高加速了资本形成,改善了资源配置,促进了贵州经济增长,反之,则不成立;交易价值与经济增长之间不存在显著的相互影响关系;而交易价值与资本化率之间存在相互促进关系。在加快发展地方经济的同时,贵州省应采取有效措施,扶持有条件的工商企业尽快上市,以促进贵州经济的腾飞。     

中国金融市场与房地产投资的协整和Granger检验

本文通过对中国1985～2005年金融资产和房地产投资的年度数据进行协整和Granger因果关系检验,发现以金融资产为指标的金融市场和房地产投资之间存在长期和短期的均衡关系及单向因果关系,即金融资产的增加极大地促进了房地产投资总额的增加。     

建设冀东经济区 应对国际金融危机

此次波及全球的金融危机破坏严重,资本市场大幅动荡,多家重量级金融机构陷入破产困境,且对实体经济产生了不利影响。世界各主要经济体纷纷进入经济下行周期。在全球经济一体化的今天,中国经济必然受到金融危机的影响。河北省作为中国的一个经济大省,如何应对金融危机是摆在决策者面前的一个重要课题。本文在科学认识国际金融危机的基础上,提出着力建设冀东经济区,来减轻金融危机对经济社会的冲击和负面作用,保证社会经济平稳运行,并打造河北经济新的增长极。     

International capital market integration: Implications for convergence, growth, and welfare

This paper studies the effects of international capital market integration on welfare and the speed of adjustment in a two-region endogenous growth model. Monopolistic firms undertake research and development (R&D) to improve their productivity level. National and international knowledge spillovers affect the returns to R&D. The two countries differ with respect to the initial productivity level and R&D capability (which is a proxy for human capital and structural policies). Long-run productivity gaps are determined by the difference in R&D capability. Over time, there is conditional convergence in productivity levels. The speed of convergence is larger with integrated international capital markets than without. Long-run gaps in consumption levels are larger in the former situation than in the latter. Capital market integration harms (benefits) the leading (lagging) region if domestic spillovers are more important than international spillovers and differences in R&D capabilities are small.The authors research is supported by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. He thanks Lucas Bretschger, Theo van de Klundert, and Richard Nahuis, Thomas Steger, and Helmut Wagner for comments on an earlier version.     

资本市场会计信息披露:问题与对策

资本市场的会计信息披露质量,直接关系到能否为各利益相关者提供决策有用的相关信息,是研究资本市场的核心内容之一。本文从会计信息披露的内涵入手,对我国资本市场会计信息披露中存在的问题进行了深入分析,并在此基础上提出了完善我国资本市场会计信息披露的策略选择。     

不完全市场与企业的投资决策

企业的投资行为是否有效率直接影响到企业的价值是否最大化。企业的非效率投资表现为投资不足和过度投资。引起非效率投资的原因有很多,本文主要从委托代理、信息不对称和融资约束3个角度来系统分析市场不完全性对企业投资决策的影响。     

The theory and practice of financial stability

Summary This paper reviews sources of market failures in financial institutions and markets and what can be done to alleviate them. It examines game theoretic explanations for financial instability, in particular the role of asymmetric information in generating destabilising behaviour. Parallels are drawn between the forces that can lead to a crisis in financial institutions and those that make for price volatility in asset markets. In the area of remedies, the paper analyses the potential contribution of official safety-nets and what can be done to minimise the associated moral hazard. In this context, it discusses the role of regulation and enhanced transparency. Lastly, the paper discusses techniques for stabilising asset prices in markets.General Manager, BIS. Helpful comments on earlier drafts were provided by Svein Andresen, Claudio Borio, Phil Davis, Peter Dittus, Wim Duisenberg, Charles Freeland, Morris Goldstein, Charles Goodhart, Mervyn King, Bob McCauley, Erik Musch, Philip Turner, and Paul van den Bergh.     

Law, Finance, and Growth during Transition: a Survey

This paper surveys the literature on law, finance, and growth and assesses its relevance to transition economies. It describes the contribution, as well as the limitations of the legal view literature with regard to our understanding of the causality between financial development and economic growth. The legal view demonstrates that, through its impact on the financial system, an effective legal system indirectly promotes economic development. However, the particularities of the transition process – notably the existence of soft budget constraints – are such that the methodology and the results of the legal view cannot be applied to transition economies without provisos.     

The pattern and causes of economic growth in India

This paper presents the broad macro parameters of the growthof the Indian economy since the nation's independence and across-country evaluation of where India stands, drawing outthe patterns discernible in these aggregative statistics. Thepaper gives an overview of the on-going debate on the componentsof the Indian growth and the relative importance of the differentpolicies in the 1980s and 1990s. It contributes to this debateby identifying the landmark years, and analysing the politicsbehind some of the economics. The paper also analyses the factorsbehind the changes in India's savings rate and the relationbetween growth and development, on the one hand, and the natureof labour market regulation, on the other.