Transparency in the interbank market and the volume of bank intermediated loans

In the present paper we study the equilibrium interaction through which the interbank market is related to the public lending and borrowing market. It turns out that this interaction is affected by the transparency in the interbank market. Interbank market transparency is modeled by means of more informative signals about future interbank rates. We find that more transparency might increase or decrease the volume of bank intermediated loans in the public market. In particular, the impact of more transparency on the volume of loans depends on the curvature of the marginal cost function of the banking firm. Furthermore, we find that expected profits of the bank are higher when the interbank market is more transparent.     

Do FX traders in Bishkek have similar perceptions to their London colleagues?: Survey evidence of market practitioners’ views

Do foreign exchange (FX) dealers from Kyrgyzstan, a low-income country, have similar perceptions to FX dealers from other international financial centers? Perceptions of Kyrgyz FX dealers in the interbank market are tested using detailed survey data against survey information from five major financial centers. The survey evidence finds that the FX dealers’ responses from the Kyrgyz interbank market differ from those of other international financial centers. Stark differences arise in the perceptions concerning the effectiveness of central bank interventions and the influence of speculation.     

Interdependent bank runs under a collapsing fixed exchange rate regime

This paper provides a framework for simultaneous multiple bank runs in a country experiencing a currency crisis. The correlation of bank runs increases as the proportion of debts from foreign creditors (indexed to the dollar) to domestic creditors (indexed to the domestic currency) increases. Moreover, when the share of dollar debt is sufficiently high, this interlinkage is perfect; that is, runs occur in all banks or not at all. Consequently, a situation exists where even a solvent bank cannot borrow in the interbank market. These findings imply that as the domestic banking sector becomes increasingly dependent on dollar debt, there is a heightened requirement for dollar reserves and a lender-of-last-resort facility.     

CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE, WAGE-BARGAINING STRUCTURE, AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN OECD COUNTRIES

The impact of central bank independence and wage-bargainingstructure on inflation and unemployment is explored theoreticallyand tested empirically for a sample of 17 OECD countries overtwo separate periods. The results suggest that inflation islower in economies with greater central bank independence andthat the equilibrium unemployment rate depends on the structureof the labour market. Greater central bank independence doesnot appear to be associated with higher unemployment.     

The Market Shares of Small and Medium Scale Enterprises in Taiwan Manufacturing*

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SEM s) have played an important role in many countries’industrial development. Among these countries, Taiwan is well known for the outstanding performance of its SME s. Limited knowledge about the causes of such performance has been revealed gradually. The main purpose of this study is to explore the determinants of SME s’market shares in Taiwan's manufacturing sector. According to economics literature, economies of scale determine the market share of SME s. The usual explanation given is that economies of scale create barriers against SME s entering the market and competing efficiently with larger firms. It is also said that the strong entrepreneurial drive to have a self-owned business is a crucial explanation for the creation of new businesses, usually as offshoots from a small one. Finally, such factors such as an even-handed policy scheme, the availability of technology in relation to R&D, transaction costs, and so forth, are also important for creating a favourable environment for SME s. Applying cross-industry pooling data from 1976 to 1986, the market shares of SME s in Taiwan's manufacturing sector were found to be affected by the following factors: (1) SME s’performance related to labour productivity and their willingness to set up new enterprises; (2) institutional factors including low entry barriers, suitable technology, the adoption of a subcontract system, and prosperous export markets. The empirical findings are compared with those from studies of the US and Germany.     

银行挤兑模型、外部性与对策取向

银行特定的资产负债结构强化了银行的易受挤兑性,作为典型的具有负外部性的部门,其一旦出现挤兑给各市场主体带来严重的负面影响.信息不对称是导致存款人挤兑及挤兑均衡蔓延的主因,使得存款人挤兑不仅引起存款人的损失,还会影响到其他银行,甚至影响到借款人,导致货币紧缩,经济停滞.文章采用Diamond-Dybving模型分析银行遭受挤兑的原因,指出存款人挤兑的经济金融效应,并在此基础上提出相应的对策建议.     

Structural Reform and Transparency in a Monetary Union

We assess how central bank transparency affects the incentives for labour market reform in a monetary union. We introduce transparency as affecting unemployment forecasts that provide information that the central bank has to the private sector and the governments. Under conditions of monetary policy opaqueness and inflation bias, we show that monetary union may induce more reform (as governments mitigate inflation surprises under idiosyncratic shocks), albeit to a lesser extent when inflation bias is only present at the national level. In the absence of inflation bias, central bank transparency, by eliminating inflation surprises in the face of idiosyncratic shocks, induces less reform in a currency union relative to monetary autonomy. Altogether, these results point to the need for a strong political commitment to reform so that member states benefit most from the combination of a credible and transparent single monetary policy with measures aimed at improving competitiveness and enhancing long-term growth.     

Global financial crisis and China’s pawnbroking industry

In most countries, pawnbroking is an intermediate financial instrument to help private households or individuals meet their short-term and urgent consumption needs. In China, due to market imperfection and institutional discrimination against the small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by commercial banks and other formal financial institutions, pawnbroking has been used as a supplementary financing source for SMEs and private entrepreneurs when they cannot get access to bank credits or other financial sources such as usury (underground money shops). This paper uses first-hand survey data in 2009 in Zhejiang Province, China’s pioneering region for pawn business, and secondary data for the whole country during 2004–12, to understand the special characteristics of the pawnbroking industry and explain why it has become a viable and useful financing instrument in China. It also explains the puzzle of a serious setback and widespread losses in the industry during the world financial crisis. A corporate financing model of SMEs is developed to explain the substitution relationship between formal bank credits and pawnbroking. It suggests that the stimulus plan implemented by the central government of China during the global financial crisis reduced the borrowing cost and lowered the access barrier of bank credits to SMEs, leading to a temporary setback of an otherwise rapidly growing pawnbroking business in 2008 and 2009. However, as quantitative easing is gradually phased out after the global financial crisis, pawnbroking activities recover rapidly, implying that the industry will continue to play an important role in China’s economic development given its current financial system which is still unfriendly to the SME sector.     

IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs and their Critics: Evidence from the Recent Experience of Egypt

The IMF-supported stabilization and structural adjustment programs implemented by Egypt in the 1990s were successful in meeting their objectives, and when compared with earlier attempts and the experience of other developing countries. The authorities undertook a sharp reduction in the government's overall deficit and its central bank financing allowing for increased credit availability to the private sector within a framework of a rapidly decelerating monetary expansion. Despite initiating comprehensive market reforms that significantly improved the environment for private investment, the response of the private sector has been disappointing. It is argued that until institutional, regulatory and political constraints are removed, Egypt will not join the group of high-investing and fast-growing economies.     

信息对称悖论与中小企业融资行为

由于银行与中小企业之间信息不对称以及大银行对规模效应的要求,中小企业的融资难问题至今未能化解。本文为近年来我国民间兴起的中小企业互助融资模式构建了一个数理模型。理论分析表明:第一,银企之间存在信息对称悖论,也即银行一味要求企业提供完全信息,会导致双亏;适度信息不对称则能实现双赢;第二,一定条件下,企业房屋、设备等实物类硬资本与经营能力、财务状况、历史信用等信息类软资本之间具有替代关系;第三,中小企业通过互助融资模式能拆借到所需的软硬资本,并能根据意愿隐匿财务信息,从而有利于它们的生存和发展;此外,中小企业还能通过集体这个最后借款人增加资信等级,并使银行调高收益预期,从而最终可实现交换的帕累托最优。     

货币乘数存在吗——基于我国银行业资产负债数据的信贷传导机制有效性分析

商业银行以同业业务为主的非存款负债以及影子银行体系的发展大大弱化了货币乘数论的有效性,货币供给内生性增强。本文从理论及实证两个方面研究货币乘数论与银行信贷传导机制的有效性。对于央行能否影响商业银行贷款规模这一点,无论是理论分析还是实证检验的论据都不充分。实证研究表明：由于同业负债、理财业务以及出售持有债券获得流动性支持等外部融资渠道的存在,商业银行贷款并不一定受到存款约束,导致传统的货币乘数论失效。在法定准备金率这一数量型货币政策工具有效性降低的前提下,我国货币政策对于宏观经济的影响具有更大的不确定性,央行只有对商业银行等主体的放贷行为和货币创造能力实施有效控制,货币政策才能达到预期效果。     

An Analysis of the Structure of Interest Rates in Taiwan: An Application of the Vector ARIMA Model

The structure of interest rates in Taiwan is analysed through the vector ARIMA approach using monthly and quarterly data from 1978 to 1989. These rates are the regulated bank interest rate and unregulated money market interest rates in the formal financial market and the kerb rate in the informal market. The results show that the adjustments in the bank interest rate follow that of the money market interest rate. Furthermore, the time lag has been shortened from one quarter in the early stages of interest rate liberalization in Taiwan to only one month in the later stages. Increases in the money market interest rate might be followed by an increase in the kerb market interest rate because of partial market segmentation. In periods when there is excess supply of funds in the banking sector, an increase in the bank rate might be followed by a decrease of the kerb rate. The interest rates structure of Taiwan is relevant to developing countries which have an informal financial sector.     

Monetary Policy Implementation and Volatility Transmission Along the Yield Curve: The Case of Kenya

This paper analyses the degree to which volatility in interbank interest rates leads to volatility in financial instruments with longer maturities (e.g. T‐bills) in Kenya since 2012, year in which the monetary policy framework switched to a forward‐looking approach, relative to seven other inflation targeting (IT) countries (Ghana, Hungary, Poland, South Africa, Sweden, Thailand and Uganda). Kenya shows strong volatility transmission and high persistence similar to other countries in transition to a more forwardlooking monetary policy framework. These results emphasize the importance of a strong commitment to an interbank rate as an operational target and suggest that the central bank could reduce uncertainty in short‐term yields significantly by smoothing out the overnight interest rates around the policy rate.     

Partial credibility and policy announcements: The problem of time inconsistency in macroeconomics revisited

This paper studies the credibility of policy announcements in macroeconomics. This issue is exemplified by the problem of monetary policy design in light of an expectations-augmented Phillips curve. In contrast to reputational models of the repeated games literature, the credibility problem between the central bank and the private sector, which results from the policymaker's temptation to create surprise inflation to raise employment, cannot be eliminated. The paper shows that credibility in any sequential equilibrium is generally only partial, in that market participants do not fully believe policy announcements of low inflation rates, even if forthright policies have been implemented in all periods. Indicating reputation-building, credibility improves over time. The example is then used to show the policy implications of partial credibility.     

Assessing central bank independence in developing countries: do actions speak louder than words?

My fiscal dominance hypothesis of central bank independenceposits that the size of the government's deficit and the methodsby which it is financed determine central bank independencem developing countries. I measure central bank independenceby the extent to which a central bank neutralises the effectsof increased credit demands by the government on the money supplyby reducing credit to the private sector My estimates show thatlarger deficits and greater government reliance on the domesticbanking system are associated with less central bank neutralisationof mcreased government borrowing from the banking system.     

Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB

Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information provided by a Taylor rule model in which real-time expected inflation and output growth are used. We use five indicators of ECB communication that are all based on the ECB President’s introductory statement at the press conference following an ECB policy meeting. Our results suggest that even though the indicators are sometimes quite different from one another, they add information that helps predict the next policy decision of the ECB. Furthermore, also when the interbank rate is included in our Taylor rule model, the ECB communication indicators remain significant.     

A Descriptive Model of Banking and Aggregate Demand

We integrate a banking sector into an accessible macroeconomic framework, which then provides new insights on developments around the Global Financial Crisis. The analysis shows that growth of banking sector money supply may help explain the secular decline in long-term interest rates before the crisis. A new bank funding channel of monetary transmission clarifies why increases in central bank policy rates could not reverse this trend. Our analysis highlights the distinction between the zero lower bound and the liquidity trap, and shows that bank recapitalizations can be more effective than fiscal expansions in restoring aggregate demand after a banking crisis.     

Central Bank Independence,Wage Bargaining,and Labor Market Performance: New Evidence

Using data on 20 industrial countries over the period 1982 to 2003, this article finds central bank independence to favorably affect both unemployment and employment rates. The size of these effects appears to be substantial, particularly in the long term. In contrast to some of the previous literature, the article finds that the favorable effects of central bank independence do not depend on the degree of wage bargaining centralization or coordination. Furthermore, it finds that higher centralization as well as higher coordination of wage bargaining may also have favorable direct effects on labor market performance.     

Heterogeneous private sector information,central bank disclosure,and stabilization policy

Conventional wisdom has it that a central bank that uses an informational advantage to undertake active policy intervention can do as well, at least so far as real outcomes are concerned, by making its information publicly available and abstaining from stabilization. This notion is examined using a framework incorporating heterogeneous private sector information concerning aggregate demand shocks. An activist regime, in which the central bank exploits its own information to engage in stabilization, is found to be unambiguously superior to a noninterventionist regime, where the central bank maintains a constant setting of policy but publicly discloses its own information.     

浅析我国中央银行在信用体系中的作用

在信用经济的条件下,不论是生产型企业还是商业企业,其信用交易的顺利进行主要是依靠金融机构的信贷支持。因此,信用制度的建设必须要有中央银行的参加,而且还应是主要角色之一。文章从我国中央银行的信用建设现状出发,分析了我国和其他国家中央银行的功能作用,为我国中央银行如何加强信用体系建设和管理提供了加强市场准入控制、加强信用法制化和发展信用工具等十一项建议。