确权抑制农户宅基地退出意愿了吗 ——来自川豫皖三省的微观调查

研究目的：分析确权对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响并探究禀赋效应的中介作用和社会资本在其中的调节作用，为落实宅基地确权政策提供经验借鉴。研究方法：有序Probit、逐步回归以及基于Bootstrap有调节的中介作用检验方法。研究结果：（1）确权对农户宅基地退出意愿有显著负向影响，在考虑选择性偏误后，结果依然显著。（2）禀赋效应在确权抑制农户宅基地退出意愿中发挥部分中介作用。（3）社会资本能够削弱禀赋效应对宅基地退出意愿的抑制作用。（4）对于户主年龄较大的农户家庭和宅基地距离县区更近的农户而言，确权对宅基地退出意愿的负向影响作用更大。研究结论：细化确权颁证工作内容，通过政策宣传引导农户正确认识确权的目的和意义，同时重视社会资本等非正式制度在宅基地退出中的补充作用，因地因人制定宅基地退出政策，分类保障农户差异性权益需求，充分激发宅基地确权的政策效果。     

金融科技进步与农户机会型创业动机：抑制还是促进

本文基于计划行为理论,利用2015—2017年CHFS数据,实证检验了金融科技进步对农户机会型创业动机的影响,并从农户创业行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制视角探讨了金融科技进步创业效应的内在机理。研究结果表明,(1)金融科技进步显著促进农户机会型创业动机。在运用工具变量应对反向因果和遗漏变量,运用处理效应模型控制潜在的内生性偏误和运用倾向得分匹配方法纠正选择性偏误后,本文研究结论仍然成立,即金融科技进步会提升农村创业质量,推进中国经济高质量发展。(2)从影响机制来看,农户风险偏好、创业认知、融资约束、产品创新和自我效能在金融科技进步与机会型创业动机之间起到显著的中介作用。(3)金融科技的创业效应具有异质性。在东部地区、贸易开放度和人力资本投入较高地区,金融科技进步对农户机会型创业动机的促进作用更显著。(4)金融科技进步会显著促进农户创业行业选择更倾向于建筑和生活性服务业,有助于提振消费、推动产业结构优化调整。本文结论对于厘清金融科技进步影响农户创业动机的机理,提升农村创业质量与加快中国高质量发展具有重要的借鉴意义。     

非农就业对农户退耕还林成果保持意愿的影响 ——基于1 132个退耕农户的调查

研究目的：评估非农就业对农户退耕成果保持意愿的影响效应,为完善新一轮退耕还林工程的配套政策、制定巩固退耕还林工程成果的方案等提供决策参考。研究方法：基于1 132个退耕农户的调查,应用倾向得分匹配方法进行平均处理效应分析,并剖析非农就业对不同个性特征与资源禀赋农户的退耕成果保持意愿的处理效应差异。研究结果：非农就业是增强退耕农户可持续生计能力,提升农户退耕成果保持意愿的关键要素;消除农户自选择等显性偏差及不可预知的隐藏偏误后,从事非农就业的退耕农户其选择继续保持退耕成果的概率显著提升30.88%;从农户异质性来看,低学历、退耕还生态林、小退耕规模、有非农工作经历或接受过非农技术培训的农户,非农就业更有助于提升其退耕成果保持意愿。研究结论：各退耕区应加大退耕农户的就业指导与技能培训,健全退耕区劳务服务体系,建立有序的退耕地流转市场,引导退耕农户建立多元化生计转型策略,增强新一轮退耕还林工程的持续性与有效性。     

宅基地退出降低了农户的贫困脆弱性吗？ ——来自安徽金寨的证据

研究目的：探究宅基地退出在脆弱性视角下的减贫效应,厘清宅基地退出对农户贫困脆弱性的作用路径。研究方法：基于2019年安徽金寨的微观调研数据,构建广义可行最小二乘法模型,基于期望贫困对农户家庭贫困脆弱性进行测度,采用倾向得分匹配法检验宅基地退出的减贫效应,运用中介效应模型分析宅基地退出影响贫困脆弱性的传导机制。研究结果：（1）在现行贫困标准下,有18.66%的农户面临未来陷入贫困的风险;（2）宅基地退出具有显著减贫效应,能够有效降低农户未来陷入贫困的概率,通过PSM方法消除“自选择”偏误后结果依然稳健;（3）宅基地退出通过增加农户生计资本和改善生计策略来降低贫困脆弱性。研究结论：未来应进一步深化宅基地制度改革,完善宅基地退出与扶贫的联动机制,改进返贫预警的识别机制。     

经营规模对农户耕地保护积极性影响的检验分析

文章通过对具有长期规模经营历史、规模经营案例较多且相对集中的新疆维吾尔自治区内农户进行调查研究,通过相关分析、分类研究和对比研究等方法深入分析和检验经营规模对农户耕地保护积极性的实际影响,揭示经营规模对农户耕地保护积极性发生影响的环境条件和规律。     

科学施肥技术的收入效应差异分析——基于粮农初始禀赋的实证估计

技术采纳是促进粮食增产、农户增收的重要手段,但对不同初始禀赋粮农的影响有所差异.为研究技术采纳在农户增收中的重要作用,基于2172份粮农生产经营数据,综合考虑样本选择偏误和异质性,采用内生转换模型及分位数回归模型,探究不同初始禀赋粮农技术采纳的收入效应差异.结果表明:(1)与未采纳科学施肥技术的粮农相比,采纳的粮农收入...     

社会资本对农户信贷违约影响的机制分析

本文采用2013年苏鲁两省农户调查数据,从农户角度出发,采用具有异质性的基于工具变量的Probit模型,考察和比较正式和非正式社会资本对农户信贷违约的影响及其差异,并基于还贷意愿和还贷能力角度对社会资本的作用机制进行实证检验,有效解决了以往研究忽略的由于内生性问题和多笔贷款异质性问题引致的估计偏误。研究发现,正式社会资本对农户信贷违约具有显著抑制作用,而非正式社会资本具有显著激励作用。进一步来看,正式社会资本的作用机制在于同时提高了农户的还贷能力和还贷意愿,最终降低信贷违约可能性;非正式社会资本的作用机制在于虽然提高了农户的还贷能力,但却降低了还贷意愿,最终提高了信贷违约可能性。     

群体规范、生态认知与农户垃圾分类行为

生态宜居是实施乡村振兴战略的关键环节。农村人居环境整治是促进生态宜居和实现美丽乡村的重要手段,调动农户参与环境整治的积极性对乡村人居环境改善至关重要。而农村生活垃圾是农村人居环境整治的重要方面和内容。因此,文章以农村生活垃圾分类为例,基于2021年CLES数据,采用Orderd Probit模型,通过中介效应,研究不同类型的群体规范对农户生活垃圾分类行为的影响。研究结果显示:(1)非正式规范中村规民约、邻里效应和名誉约束对农户垃圾分类行为有显著正向影响,正式规范中宣传教育、奖惩措施对农户生活垃圾分类行为影响显著;(2)非正式规范的影响存在家庭收入水平和性别异质性;(3)环境认知在群体规范对农户生活垃圾分类行为的影响中起到部分中介作用。据此,对不同收入水平、不同性别的农户群体实行适宜的规范措施,以提高农户的生态认知水平。     

农户作物营养强化技术采纳提高了生产绩效吗？——基于小麦种植户的实证分析

农户作物营养强化技术采纳能否提高生产绩效,是促进作物营养强化技术扩散,进而改善人口营养健康、推动高附加值农业发展面临的重要现实问题。本文以营养强化小麦为例,采用豫冀陇晋四省606份农户调研数据,同时考量生产、消费和微量营养素缺乏水平,利用内生转换模型实证探究农户作物营养强化技术采纳能否以及多大程度提高农户生产绩效。结果表明：第一,农户作物营养强化技术采纳能够显著提高农户生产绩效。具体而言,控制农户自选择偏误后,农户作物营养强化技术采纳分别提高了6.81%的小麦亩产以及14.84%的小麦亩收入。第二,农户作物营养强化技术采纳对生产绩效的影响存在一定的区域异质性。第三,农户作物营养强化技术采纳对不同受教育年限和不同种植面积农户生产绩效的提升作用存在差异。本研究为进一步推动中国作物营养强化项目实施提供政策参考。     

外出务工对农户食物消费的影响研究*——基于中国西部6县的调查

[目的]为了厘清贫困地区外出务工与农户食物消费的关系,文章以西部贫困地区为例,研究外出务工对农户食物消费的影响。[方法]该文使用陕西省镇安县、洛南县,云南省武定县、会泽县和贵州省盘县、正安县2015年1 368户农户实地调研数据,将在家成员作为研究对象,采用倾向得分匹配法(PSM)调整样本的选择性偏差,降低内生性导致的估计偏误,分析外出务工的影响效果。[结果]采用最近邻匹配法、半径匹配法和核匹配法进行匹配后,发现外出务工使农户的人均食物消费总支出的对数最多显著提高0. 081%,最少显著提高0. 060%。[结论]外出务工主要通过收入变化、外来的信息或经验和人口变化3方面影响农户的食物消费,且西部贫困地区外出务工显著提高农户的食物消费水平。相关部门应关注贫困地区农户食物消费与营养状况,改善其食物消费结构,提高食物安全与营养水平。     

Location equilibria in a mixed duopsony with a cooperative

This work analyses a two‐stage price–location game between a profit maximising firm and a primary producers' cooperative. According to the results, the location equilibria are not fixed but depend on the intrinsic competitiveness of the spatial market. As the intrinsic competitiveness rises, the cooperative tends to be located closer to the middle point of the market. The limited differentiation in location entails an efficiency loss which is nevertheless smaller than that associated with the competition of two profit maximising firms (pure duopsony) on exactly the same spatial market. The superiority of a mixed duopsony lies in the fact that the resulting equilibrium locations entail lower total transportation cost relative to those of a pure duopsony.     

发挥桥梁纽带作用 做好协会(学会)工作

<正>2009年,四川省粮食行业协会(学会)在省粮食局直接领导下,在全国粮食行业协会和省民政厅、省社科联的指导下,紧密联系各市、州粮食行业协会(学会)和全省粮食工作者,坚持以邓小平理论、     

Forest plantations in Paraguay: Historical developments and a critical diagnosis in a SWOT-AHP framework

Over the last century, Paraguay has seen deforestation on a massive scale. At the same time, forest plantation efforts have been very limited. This paper examines why this is the case, and why until today investment in forest plantations in Paraguay is constrained despite visible wood shortages. Paraguay’s forest plantation sector is analyzed based on a typology of five plantation paradigms. This is followed by a critical diagnosis of the current plantation situation on the project level conducted through a SWOT-AHP analysis and supported by an expert survey. Thirty-six specific factors for establishing plantations are identified and evaluated for both small-scale and large-scale plantations. The analysis reveals strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for both plantation types, and shows that small-scale plantations possess more highly valued strengths, while there are more significant threats for large-scale plantations. Critical conclusions and policy implications for expanding the scale of forest plantations in Paraguay are provided, focusing on forestry, institutional, political and intersectoral issues.     

Incorporating risk in a positive mathematical programming framework: a dual approach

In this study we develop a new methodological proposal to incorporate risk into a farm‐level positive mathematical programming (PMP) model. We estimate simultaneously the farm nonlinear cost function and a farmer‐specific coefficient of absolute risk aversion as well as the resource shadow prices. The model is applied to a sample of representative arable crop farms from the Emilia‐Romagna region in Italy. The estimation results confirm the calibration ability of the model and reveal the values of the individual risk aversion coefficients. We use the model to simulate different scenarios of crop price volatility, in order to explore the potential risk management role of an agri‐environmental scheme.     

The optimal export tax for a primary commodity in a vertical market

The conventional formula for the optimal export tax (derived from a partial equilibrium model that ignores importers’ welfare) is extended to include the deadweight loss to the domestic economy associated with the tax. Applying the extended formula to the tax Russia imposes on its exports of logs, results suggest ignoring the marketing channel causes the optimal export tax for a primary commodity to be understated. The degree of understatement increases as the supply of logs and processing/marketing inputs become less price elastic, and as buyer and seller power in the downstream (lumber) industry increases. For plausible values of model parameters, however, the degree of understatement is modest, less than 19%.     

新疆应大力发展沙棘种植

沙棘是最适合在干旱、半干旱地区栽种的优良树种,它不仅能防风固沙、改善生态环境,而且果实、果皮、叶和种子都具有极高的经济价值,因此,在新疆应大力发展沙棘种植。     

Comparing the Profitability of a Greenhouse to a Vertical Farm in Quebec

Rapidly growing demand for year‐round fresh food, regardless of the weather or climate, is driving demand for controlled environment agriculture systems. Sales from greenhouses (GHs) are growing at 8.8%, while sales from vertical farms (VFs) are growing at 30%. It is commonly believed in industry circles that a VF cannot economically compete with a GH, due to the high cost of powering artificial lighting. Nonetheless, researchers have yet to analyze the economics underlying a VF, let alone compare the profitability of a VF to that of a GH. This research gap is particularly relevant to Canada, as it is uniquely positioned to be a leader in the VF market. Below, we report the results of a detailed simulation of the profitability of growing lettuce in a VF and in a GH located near Quebec City. Surprisingly, we find that the costs to both equip and run the two facilities are very similar, while the gross profit is slightly higher for the VF.     

深入开展大讨论开创资源山东建设新局面

深入开展地质找矿改革发展大讨论是地勘经济平稳较快发展的必然要求,对于解放思想、转变观念,创新机制,增强地质工作服务功能,更好地为国民经济和社会发展提供资源保障、地质环境和可持续发展服务,具有十分重大的意义。山东地矿局明确提出了大讨论的重点是要解放思想、改革体制、转换机制、优化环境,最终的落脚点是实现地质找矿的新突破,采取多种形式深入开展大讨论,努力开创资源山东建设的新局面,省内、省外、国外找矿捷报频传,为地勘主业快速增长作出重要贡献。     

Decision making in a complex world: Using OPTamos in a multi-criteria process for land management in the Cuitzmala watershed in Mexico

Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) are incentives offered to land owners or managers in exchange for practices that benefit society with ecological goods and/or services. For the success of PES schemes, the involvement of stakeholders, their needs, knowledge, and perspectives has been found beneficial. This paper presents a new approach in engaging stakeholders based on an iterative transdisciplinary framework for a Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) decision-making process. After a comprehensive review of existing options, the paper describes the development and application of a new software, OPTamos, to allow for efficient handling and processing of large volumes of quantitative and qualitative data generated from stakeholder workshops. Applied to a land use related decision in the Cuitzmala watershed, in the state of Jalisco in Mexico, the outcomes from this approach resulted in acceptable land management options for the entire area of the watershed that satisfied criteria generated by the stakeholders themselves and to finally develop an action plan.