未来货币多元化

从全球储备货币过去的变迁史分析,一国货币并不能永远占据主宰者之位。2008年开始的全球金融危机和持续的欧元区主权债务危机,使得包括世界银行在内的多数经济学家认为．正如当年美元取代英镑一样,美元将被由美元、欧元和人民币的多元货币体系所取代。     

美元在全球储备货币地位依然稳固

美元作为全球主要储备货币的地位使美国利率保持低水平,进而令全体美国人受益。外国之所以购买美国国债不仅是把这类债券当作一种投资,因为美元计价的资产是持有外汇储备的最佳方式。     

国际储备货币竞争与欧元危机

所谓希腊债务危机和由此引发的欧元危机,实际上反映的是新形势下的国际储备货币竞争,美国趁机打压欧元,目的在于维护美元的全球霸权地位     

欧元问世后国际储备货币竞争格局与欧元危机问题初探

伴随着理代科学技术的蓬勃发展与经济社会现代化建设发展程度日益完善社会大众持续增长的物质文化与精神文化需求同时对新时期的金融事业提出了更为全面与系统的发展要求.可以说,金融事业的建设发展程度将在一定程度上直接关系着整个国民经济的建设发展程度.相关工作人员需要清醒的认识到一个方面的问题:欧元问世之后,国际储备货币的竞争格局由美元垄断演变成殴元和美元的双头竞争.本文主要就欧元问世之后,国际储备货币竞争中的欧元危机问题进行分析,以期给相关研究单位探究欧元问题提供一些参考价值.     

国际储备的演进与储备货币的价值分析

进入新世纪全球国际储备规模快速扩张,结构显著变化,进一步凸显了当代国际货币体系固有的体制性缺陷。研究表明,主导新世纪国际储备的主权信用货币实际上只有主权而没有信用。因此,当代国际储备体系必须改革,中国的国际储备也应该调整。     

国际金融危机与美元国际储备货币地位的变化

文章认为,国际金融危机使美元面临重大挑战。文章分析了危机中美元仍维持主要储备货币地位的原因,主要包括大量黄金储备的支撑作用、美国金融市场对全球资金的吸引、主要竞争对手未成熟完善、回复（改良的）金本位并不可行等。最后,文章展望了美国货币政策走向和美元汇率行情,以及相关货币与美元的关系。     

全球外汇储备结构的变化趋势

<正>21世纪以来,随着经济全球化一体化,在全球外汇储备增长的同时,非传统储备货币的地位在上升。人民币在2016年加入SDR后地位迅速提升。2022年的俄乌冲突对国际政治格局产生巨大影响,将反映到经济的许多方面。在储备体系上,将会降低外汇总体储备需求,强化货币多元化的趋势,提升黄金的地位,并有可能推动区域货币联盟及跨境支付系统的发展。     

美元储备货币地位面临挑战

在人们的记忆中,美元作为国际流通货币的霸主地位已经根深蒂固。目前美国人打的算盘是借助美元贬值缩小贸易赤字,但这一做法风险很大。这不仅会伤害世界经济,同时也将削弱美元作为世界主要储备货币的地位。     

人民币10年内成为国际储备货币

中国现在已经是全球第二大经济体而且在国际贸易中起着举足轻重的作用。不过,中国的货币人民币则是全球六大经济体中唯一不被用来作为国际储备资产的货币。有关专家预计,人民币在今后10年将会成为一种储备货币,削弱美元的地位,但是不会取而代之。     

基于历史视角下储备货币竞争力的推动因素研究——以英镑衰落与美元崛起为例

国家间博弈的策略和行动会随时间和其他环境的变化而调整,而这些调整和变化在不停地推动着国际货币体系的发展和演化,国际货币金字塔的格局也随之发生变化。但由于历史因素的客观存在,霸权依然不容忽视,货币金字塔导致的货币分层,不同货币层次的变更,不仅体现了美元的货币霸权,同时欧元、日元、甚至人民币的崛起都成为了理论界和实务界关注的焦点。本文选取历史经验视角,从英镑国际地位的兴衰出发,对比美元崛起的推动因素,寻求储备货币竞争力强弱的决定性要素,为其他货币国际竞争力提升提供经验参考。     

储备货币竞争与国际货币体系不稳定性

不兑现货币制度下,储备货币发行国具有巨大的政治经济利益,而承担的成本却很小,主要储备货币国具有增发货币以获得储备货币收益的内在冲动。随着欧元使用范围的扩大,欧元货币地位上升较快,形成了与美元的竞争态势。但现行国际货币体系缺乏对国际储备货币供给的约束,在现实背景下竞争不但未能阻止货币滥发,反而形成了世界性的流动性过剩。缺乏有效监管使国际短期资本流动频繁而剧烈,引起汇率大幅波动,国际货币体系更具不稳定性。     

Some Parallels Between Currency and Banking Crises

There is a sizeable literature on the causes of speculative attacks on fixed exchange rates and a large literature on the determinants of bank runs. Surprisingly, these two literatures rarely overlap, even though both types of crises involve attacks on asset price-fixing schemes. This paper draws a number of parallels between the work on currency crises and the work on banking crises and examines some of the new insights that are coming out of a more integrated approach in the aftermath of the Asian financial crises.     

Foreign Currency Derivatives versus Foreign Currency Debt and the Hedging Premium

This paper compares the effect on firm value of different foreign currency (FC) financial hedging strategies identified by type of exposure (short‐ or long‐term) and type of instrument (forwards, options, swaps and foreign currency debt). We find that hedging instruments depend on the type of exposure. Short‐term instruments such as FC forwards and/or options are used to hedge short‐term exposure generated from export activity while FC debt and FC swaps into foreign currency (but not into domestic currency) are used to hedge long‐term exposure arising from assets located in foreign locations. Our results relating to the value effects of foreign currency hedging indicate that foreign currency derivatives use increases firm value but there is no hedging premium associated with foreign currency debt hedging, except when combined with foreign currency derivatives. Taken individually, FC swaps generate more value than short‐term derivatives.     

Oil Currency and the Dollar Standard: A Simple Analytical Model of an International Trade Currency

The U.S. dollar is the central reference currency for international trade pricing and the main invoicing currency for primary commodities. This paper links these two observations within a stylized theoretical framework, and shows how to obtain a quantitative estimate of the gain to the U.S. economy when the dollar is a reference currency. With dollar invoicing of primary commodities, U.S. firms bear less exchange rate risk than foreign firms. This asymmetry leads to a dollar standard in international goods pricing. We then derive a simple analytical formula to calculate the gains and find that they are extremely small.     

Diversification disasters

The recent financial crisis has revealed significant externalities and systemic risks that arise from the interconnectedness of financial intermediaries’ risk portfolios. We develop a model in which the negative externality arises because intermediaries’ actions to diversify that are optimal for individual intermediaries may prove to be suboptimal for society. We show that the externality depends critically on the distributional properties of the risks. The optimal social outcome involves less risk-sharing, but also a lower probability for massive collapses of intermediaries. We derive the exact conditions under which risk-sharing restrictions create a socially preferable outcome. Our analysis has implications for regulation of financial institutions and risk management.     

中国外汇储备规模的实证检验

通过因子分析法与比例分析法对中国的外汇储备规模进行检验,结果得出:因子分析法得出的结论比比例分析法得出的结论更加科学.中国当前实际外汇储备远高于由因子分析法得出的适度储备规模.中国的外汇储备存在超额问题.     

全球新型金融危机与中国外汇储备管理的战略调整

本文针对美国次贷危机之后国际金融格局变化,提出全球新型金融危机的概念,阐明新型金融危机独有的特征,指出全球新型金融危机对中国外汇储备的影响。本文的分析显示,在全球新型金融危机背景下,中国外汇储备管理的战略应该向人民币国际化这一方向调整,尽管目前时机尚未成熟,但近年来相关方面的发展已经为人民币将来走向国际化奠定了有利的基础。文章对人民币国际化的实现路径进行了讨论。     

Volume and Volatility in Foreign Currency Futures Markets

In this paper we propose and test several hypotheses concerning time series properties of trading volume, price, short and long-term relationships between price and volume and the determinants of trading volume in forcign currency futures. The nearby contracts for British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, German Mark and Swiss Franc are analyzed in three frequencies i.e. daily, weekly and monthly.We find supportive evidence for all the five currencies that the price volatility is a determinant of the trading volume changes. Furthermore, the volatility of the price process is a determinant of the unexpected component of the changes in trading volume. Also, there is a significant relationship between the volatility of price and the volatility of trading volume changes for three of the five currencies in the daily frequency and for one currency in the monthly frequency.     

The Twin Crises: Determinants of Banking and Currency Crises in the Turkish Economy

Several twin crises occurred in the Turkish economy in the last three decades. In this article, we aim to analyze the link between banking and currency crises and to illustrate the essential determinants of these twin crises by developing a multivariate logit model for the period 1990–2013. The empirical findings show that Turkish currency crises are mainly due to excessive fiscal deficits, rises in short-term external debt, overvaluation of Turkish lira, and external adverse shocks; banking crises are primarily caused by excessive money supplies and bank short positions. The empirical findings also indicate that banking crises lead to currency crises, and vice versa.     

The Determinants of Foreign Currency Hedging: Does Foreign Currency Debt Induce a Bias?

In this paper we use UK data to present strong empirical evidence that explains the mixed results in previous studies with respect to the effect of financial distress on the demand for corporate hedging. We build on recent studies that have identified a strong link between foreign currency (FC) debt use and leverage. Given this relationship, we show that using leverage variables as proxies for financial distress and the failure to distinguish between FC debt users and non‐users causes misleading inference. More specifically, when we partition our sample of FC hedgers into firms that use and do not use foreign debt, we show that leverage variables are significantly related to the FC hedging decision for firms that use FC debt either in isolation or in combination with FC derivatives but not for firms that only use FC derivatives. This suggests that FC debt users are influencing these results. However, we also find that other financial distress cost proxies with no obvious link to FC debt use are significant determinants in the corporate demand for FC hedging, including derivatives use.