EU Anti‐dumping Measures against ASEAN Countries: Impact on Trade Flows*

In the present paper, anti‐dumping (AD) duties levied by the European Commission against products from ASEAN countries in the period 1991–2001 have been considered. The ASEAN countries were among the countries most targeted by AD measures imposed by the EU in the 1990s. A panel regression has been applied to estimate the impact of AD duties on trade in some 12 products that have been subject to AD duties targeting ASEAN countries in the period considered. A significant negative impact of AD duties is found, on both the value and the quantity of imports from ASEAN countries. Our estimation provides some (although not overwhelming) indications of trade diversion in favor of EU countries, but no evidence of trade diversion in favor of non‐targeted non‐EU countries.     

Trade Barriers and Participation in the Global Value Chain: An Empirical Study Based on Anti‐dumping toward China

This paper investigates the effects of trade barriers on China's participation in the global value chain (GVC) using a thorough decomposition approach for trade volume, total exports, final exports and intermediate exports. Our econometric results indicate that anti‐dumping (AD) measures initiated by trade partners have restrained the process of China's participation in the GVC. From 2000 to 2014, AD measures reduced the foreign value‐added rate of total, final and intermediate exports by 4.5 to 28.7 percent, 3.4 to 17 percent and 1.2 to 8.5 percent, respectively. In addition, suffering the effects of AD measures, China's GVC position index declined by 8.2 percent to 28.6 percent during this period. Moreover, AD measures have increased industries' upstream index by 3.2 to 13.7 percent over the same period. These results imply that both the petition and approval of AD cases has had a negative influence on the extent and position of China's GVC participation.     

China's Anti‐dumping Problems and Mitigation through Regional Trade Agreements

The present paper explores the opportunities for China's regional trade agreement (RTA) initiatives to mitigate its anti‐dumping problems. The paper highlights the severity and discriminatory nature of China's anti‐dumping problems. The high concentration of the share of anti‐dumping actions taken by the top 4 and top 8 anti‐dumping initiators is noted. Our finding of a weak effect of existing RTAs on mitigating China's anti‐dumping problems supports the argument that China could become more active in mitigating anti‐dumping problems through RTA negotiations. An RTA can include a higher level of openness in exchange for an improvement in regional anti‐dumping provisions. Case studies on RTAs involving the EU, the USA and India offer some precedents for offering inducements and modifying regional anti‐dumping provisions. The approaches for China may lie in obtaining market economy status from intensive anti‐dumping initiators at RTA levels and also altering regional anti‐dumping provisions that could be put in place in exchange for some potential concessions.     

Openness,Regional Trade Agreements and Growth: Evidence from Asia*

This paper assesses the relationship between regional trade agreements, trade integration and economic growth in 21 South and South‐East Asian countries over the period from 1980 to 2004. We aim to answer the following questions. First, how does the trade policy of a given country (and countries within the same region) affect a nation's domestic growth? Second, should developing economies in South and South‐East Asia engage in regional trade agreements (RTA) or move towards broad liberalization? Our results show that openness of either a single country or of its neighbors does not affect a nation's growth and that the impacts of RTA are unclear (if not detrimental to growth in some cases, once endogeneity is accounted for). Panel Granger‐causality tests running from openness to growth yield mixed results and some conclusions depend on the particular subsample under scrutiny.     

Trade Balance： Numbers Can be Deceiving

I. Introduction Trade disputes have become more prevalent and acute in recent years. Almost all disputes have centered on trade balance and/or market access of certain merchandise or services. It is commonly believed by the public, media and politicians that trade surplus resembles mercantilism and trade deficit represents vulnerability. This is a major reason why Sino– US trade deficit and dispute settlements in the WTO relating to China have been stealingTrade Balance: Numbers Can be …     

Penetration of industrial country markets by agricultural products from developing countries

About 55% of food and about 60% of non-food agricultural exports of the developing countries are sold in industrial country markets. Market access is therefore important.While the developing countries have been able to increase the market penetration of their manufactured exports in industrial countries at a remarkable rate of about 8% in the 1970s, market penetration in agricultural commodities has generally been less successful.From 1970 to 1980 the developing countries were able to increase their market penetration in processed agricultural commodities from 3.5 to 3.7%, which amounts to an average annual increase of only 0.6%. In basic agricultural products like sugar, maize, tomatoes and beef they even incurred losses in their market share that corresponded to an increase in the degree of self-sufficiency (and probably of protective trade barriers) of the industrial countries, in particular the EC.     

中、印反倾销法律制度比较研究

当前,反倾销已经成为世界各国防止倾销、保护国内产业的一种普遍策略。在此背景下,印度针对我国产品的反倾销调查案件居该国之首。对此,本文就中国与印度反倾销法的法律渊源、实体法、程序法等方面进行了对比研究,这对进一步完善我国的反倾销立法,更好地解决两国目前所面临的贸易阻力有着重要的积极意义。     

PROBLEMS IN EXPANDING JAPAN'S IMPORTS OF MANUFACTURES FROM DEVELOPING ECONOMIES: A SURVEY*

The Japanese economy is now the second largest market economy, with a large trade surplus. And yet, Japan's imports of manufactures have long been very low relative to its GNP, when compared with other industrial countries; its ratio of manufactured imports to GNP was in the range of 2.1–2.7% in the 1980-87 period, as compared with 8.5–10.3% for the industrial countries as a whole or 4.7-7.2% for the United States. The share of developing economies in total imports of manufactures in Japan is about the same as, if not higher than, those for most other industrial countries. If Japan's ratio of manufactured imports to GNP were to rise in the future to approach closer to those of other industrial countries, Japan's imports of manufactures from developing economies could be two to three times what they are today, even if Japan's GNP does not increase at all and the share of developing economies in Japan's manufactured imports does not increase. This paper is an attempt to probe the potential of the Japanese market for imports of manufactures from developing economies in terms of rising ratio of such imports to GNP. The paper explores the reasons why Japan's ratio is exceptionally low, on the basis of existing literature. (a) Japan's ratio of manufactured imports to GNP has remained exceptionally low compared with those for other industrial countries. (b) Japan's ratio of manufactured imports from developing economies to GNP has remained distinctly low despite the recent surge in such imports. (c) If a part of the reason for the low ratio for Japan was a market access problem as often alleged, the problem is not with formal import barriers such as tariffs and formal non-tariff barriers because these barriers in Japan are no higher than in other industrial countries. As for informal import barriers, evidence found indicates that: (i) Administrative guidance and flexibly managed competition policy, which in the past had considerable effects of limiting imports, appear to have declined-in importance, but they still have import-limiting effects in certain areas. (ii) Market access difficulties involving import procedures, product standards, testing and certification requirements, which were enormous in the past, may have also decreased in severity over the last decade, but problems in these areas persist. (iii) There are aspects of the Japanese distribution system and practice that seem to make foreign access to the Japanese market significantly more difficult than the access by Japanese exporters to the markets in other industrial countries. Distribution in Japan suffers from overregulation. (iv) Users of manufactured products in Japan are sensitive to quality, perhaps more so, on the average, than in other industrial countries. Does the recent upsurge in Japan's imports of manufactures suggest that the traditional import behavior of Japan is changing? Japan's manufactured imports measured in yen increased by 18 and 27 percent in 1987 and 1988, respectively, and those coming from developing economies increased even more rapidly. There is also some evidence that price and income elasticities of demand for manufactured imports may have increased recently. These are encouraging, but it remains to be seen whether the trends will continue far enough into the future to bring Japan's import behavior more into line with those of other industrial countries. If they do, implications for the market prospects of manufactured exports from developing economies could be far-reaching. Outstanding questions are: (i) How much of the recent increase in manufactured imports is attributable to the appreciation of the yen (price effect)? How much is attributable to the increase in income or industrial output (income effect)? How much is attributable to removal of formal and informal import barriers effected so far (structural change)? Has consumer taste changed? (ii) Why have Latin American countries not been successful in promoting their exports of manufactures to Japan, when Asian exporters have been so successful? (iii) Up until now, the share of developing economies in Japan's manufactured imports has not been particularly low compared with those for other industrial countries, but is this share likely to fall or rise in the future? (iv) What is the likely impact of recently increased direct investment (DFI) by Japanese manufacturers in developing economies on the imports of their products into Japan?     

ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE AND INTERNATIONAL INTERACTIONS : THE IMPACT OF MARKET POWER ON DYADIC CONFLICT AND COOPERATION

This article presents a theoretical approach to analysing how a country with market power could affect international relations. The liberal view and trade‐conflict model claim that if countries seek to protect their trade gains, trade will reduce conflict between pairs of countries, designated “actors” and “targets”. The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of market power on the gains from trade. Once the distribution of trade gains is changed between countries, the conflict and cooperation relationships between countries will also alter. We apply the trade‐conflict model to derive two propositions as follows: (1) the more monopoly power over exports a monopolistic target has, the greater the amount of actor‐to‐target conflict; (2) the more monopsony power over imports a monopolistic target has, the greater the amount of actor‐to‐target conflict. To summarise, these hypotheses will predict that a country with market power reaps the gains from trade and will exhibit less conflict and more cooperation, whilst the country that is exploited will exhibit more conflict and less cooperation.     

Trends and patterns of the international tropical hardwood trade

In spite of the rapid expansion of tropical hardwood exports since 1960, there was no change in the structure of the trade. For a more equitable distribution of gains from the trade, tropical developing countries need to move away from log exports into domestic processing of wood. The main obstacles to future expansion of tropical hardwood exports are a lack of necessary complementary inputs in the producing countries and the restrictions to market access in the major importing countries. Rationalization of the production and trade of tropical hardwoods could contribute significantly to world welfare.     

Going beyond Cancun: Realizing the development promise of the Doha agenda

The launch of a new trade round in Doha in November 2001 was a major breakthrough following the discord in Seattle in 1999. The Doha Round is the first set of multilateral trade negotiations in which the needs and interests of developing countries have been officially declared a priority and whose conclusion deemed essential. However, the failure of the Doha negotiations in Cancun in September 2003 was a major setback. The trade talks are now stalled in several policy domains vital to developing countries such as agriculture, non‐farm trade, access to patented drugs, special and differential treatment and dispute settlement, and in areas of interest to the developed countries such as the “Singapore issues” dealing with investment, competition, trade facilitation and government procurement This paper discusses the reasons behind the failure, its wider implications as well as the policies that member governments of the World Trade Organization (WTO) will need to make to move beyond Cancun.     

温州制鞋业如何应对反倾销

目前,经济全球化趋势不断增强,然而欧盟的反倾销势头并没有因为中国取得了世贸成员国地位而减弱。尽管世贸组织对待反倾销问题有待明确规定,但现行的世贸《反倾销守则》并不完善,且被一些国家歪曲和滥用,致使欧盟等国家和地区在"市场经济地位"等问题上对我国制鞋业大做文章,采用不合理的"替代国法"来制约我国鞋产品的出口。本论文共分五个部分,从倾销与反倾销的概念入手,运用经济学相关理论,采用实证分析和数据分析等方法,结合中国制鞋业频频遭遇欧盟反倾销的现状,逐步分析遇欧盟反倾销的发展趋势,阐述中国制鞋业遇欧盟反倾销的内外原因,并尝试通过所学的营销专业知识提出相应的对策及建议,期望中国制鞋业尽早走出欧盟反倾销的困境。     

Export processing zones as an element of export‐oriented and regional industrial development

Establishing export processing zones (EPZs) is a popular method of creating isolated islands of free trade which provide the export manufacturer with freedom from the cost‐increasing measures implemented to protect the domestic market. In South Africa the interest in using this concept has remained alive, especially because the EPZ has the additional advantage of being used as an instrument of regional development. After account has been taken in the paper of the economic rationale of the EPZ and of the apparent conditions for the successful operation of an EPZ, as deduced from the experience of countries that have made use of this development instrument, it is concluded that the economic feasibility of establishing conventional EPZs in South Africa is doubtful. A flexible approach, making use of the EPZ approach and of the system of duty drawbacks and rebates, could form the nucleus of a cost‐efficient way of providing export manufacturers with the advantages of a free trade situation.     

Market Access Asymmetry in Food Trade

Using a bilateral trade equation derived from a monopolistic competition model, we investigate market access reciprocity in food trade among the United States, Canada, the European Union and Japan. We explore country- and industry-specific market access asymmetry through a border effect approach. Our findings reveal marked asymmetries in reciprocal border effects, both across countries and industries. Trade policy measures, particularly non-tariff barriers (NTBs), the degree of product differentiation and a ‘home bias’ in preferences, are important factors in explaining levels in border effects. Asymmetries in border effects are mainly explained by trade policies. JEL no.  F13, F14, Q17     

The Aftermath of Anti-Dumping: Are Temporary Trade Barriers Really Temporary?

A consistent finding in the literature is that anti-dumping (AD) acts as a significant barrier to bilateral trade, in particular, during the time such measures are in force. Adding to a relatively scarce empirical literature, however, we identify adverse impacts of AD which survive well beyond its revocation. More specifically, while we cannot rule out a slight post-revocation recovery, we find empirical evidence that once affected bilateral trade does not fully recover on average following revocation. We use panel data at the Harmonized System four-digit (HS4) level of aggregation to produce these results and show that they are robust to the duration of AD cases, the time of their imposition and revocation, differentiation by economic sector and the nature of imposing countries. Several explanations for our observed empirical results seem plausible, and we provide a theoretical framework which suggests our results could be driven by market exit or underinvestment of targeted firms.

     

我国出口企业应对国外反倾销指控的对策探析

目前,国外对华频繁提出反倾销指控已严重阻碍了我国对外出口贸易的发展。文章首先分析了我国出口产品不断遭遇反倾销指控的原因,并在此基础上多角度地分析了应对国外对华反倾销控诉的若干对策建议。     

对我国应诉反倾销的竞争情报分析

目前我国企业屡屡遭受到国外的反倾销调查,而我们不仅应诉率低,而且胜诉率低,这与企业缺乏应对国外反倾销的竞争情报有着极大的关系。本文对反倾销过程中竞争情报所起的重要作用,其包括的主要内容及产出过程作了一定的研究。     

Regulating for telecommunications competition in developing countries: Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea is a low‐middle income, developing, Pacific country whose telecommunications market has developed under regulatory arrangements strongly influenced by Australian policymaking. Nevertheless, it demonstrates very weak performance compared to similar low‐middle income countries. Why does a country whose regulatory regime draws on current international recommended ‘best practice’ perform so poorly? We develop an inquiry framework based on World Bank and the International Telecommunications Union guidelines for assessing the effectiveness of regulatory arrangements in a developing country. The framework takes account of developing country challenges: limited capacity, limited commitment, limited accountability, limited fiscal efficiency, and trade‐offs between factors that take account of these limits. The analysis indicates the most likely explanation for poor performance derives from lack of investment and an unstable set of ownership arrangements constraining government‐owned Telikom from being an effective competitor. Weaknesses in regulator accountability provisions may have contributed to obscuring poor performance. Introducing at least one more foreign operator will improve outcomes only with clear separation of government ownership and regulatory activities and credible commitment from political agents to refrain from interfering in operations of both the incumbent firm and regulatory agencies.     

China’s fare share? The growth of Chinese exports in world trade

The growth of Chinese exports in market share over the past two decades is a singular event in the history of world trade. Using data from 1995–2010, we document this growth in a variety of ways. We show that the expanded trade is pervasive. Virtually every country in the world has seen China claim a larger share of its import market. Then, we use Constant Market Share analysis to determine which country or countries have lost market share as China’s trade has grown. Contrary to much discussion in the popular press, we find strong evidence that other developing countries have not seen export shares fall as a result of China’s gains. Rather, our results suggest that China’s share growth has come largely at the expense of exporters based in developed countries, especially Japan and the United States.     

WTO框架下贸易便利化问题探析

WTO为自由贸易做出了不懈的努力,一旦正式的贸易壁垒降低了,简化贸易手续、推进贸易便利化等问题就变得重要起来。由于贸易便利化措施会给贸易商、政府等贸易参与者带来巨大的经济利益,因而贸易便利化一直是世界各国所追求的目标。鉴于发达国家与发展中国家在贸易便利化问题上利益存在的差异,因此,在WTO的框架下讨论贸易便利化具有很强的指导意义。