Carbon taxes and the double dividend hypothesis in a recursive-dynamic CGE model for Spain

A carbon tax is potentially a policy that can reduce CO₂ emissions and mitigate climate risks, at lowest economy-wide costs. We develop a dynamic CGE model for Spain to assess the economic and environmental effects of a carbon tax, and test the double dividend (DD) hypothesis. We simulate the impact of three carbon taxes: €10, €20 and €30 per ton of CO₂. For each tax, four ‘revenue recycling’ scenarios are examined: a reduction of taxes on capital, on labor, on value-added tax, and a scenario in which revenues are not recycled. We find a DD for taxes of €10/ton and lower, within five to seven years of implementation. We estimate an annual CO₂ emissions reduction of around 10% with this tax. Under some circumstances, the DD can be achieved for a tax of €20/ton. In any case, recycling revenues to cut pre-existing taxes reduces costs of imposing carbon taxes.     

Transport scenarios in a company strategy

The environmental company strategy of the case company Oslo Sporveier includes scenarios for the development of person transport in Oslo up to year 2016. The basis for three different scenarios is described. This paper presents the use of scenarios as background for environmental reporting. Emissions, energy, land and time use from person transport in the three different scenarios were determined. The scenarios were (i) a private car scenario, where the main growth in person transport is to be met with a strong increase in the use of private cars, (ii) a public transport scenario, where the increase in person transport is to be taken care of with a strong increase in the public transport, and (iii) the sustainability scenario, with a reduction in total person transport, increased share of public transport and walking/bicycling, and reduced share of private car use. The total energy use, CO₂ emissions, NO_x emissions and particle emissions from person transport in Oslo are reduced in all three scenarios compared with the situation in 1996. The reduction is smallest in the private car scenario and largest in the sustainability scenario. The land use increases in the private car scenario and the public transport scenario, while there is a reduction in land use in the sustainability scenario. The total time consumption connected to person transport increases in all three scenarios. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Effects of scenario-based carbon pricing policies on China's dual climate change mitigation goals: Does policy design matter?

Although the carbon pricing policy is a critical driving factor that will help China achieve economic growth, energy transition, and dual climate change mitigation goals, the kind of carbon pricing policy that will complement the country's current development situation remains controversial. We apply the World Induced Technical Change Hybrid (WITCH) model to explore the heterogeneity and synergy of different carbon pricing policies, and the results indicate that it will be challenging to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The study find that the combined policy —a mix of carbon tax and carbon market policies — has the optimal emission reduction effect but comes with the highest economic cost, proving to be unsuitable in the long run. The carbon tax policy is an important transitional means to assist in emission reduction, which can serve as an important supplement to carbon market policy and be phased out after the market mechanism matures.     

Neutral carbon tax and environmental targets in Brazil

We evaluate the effects of a carbon tax in the Brazilian economy using an input–output framework. First, we consider the impacts of a carbon tax of US$ 10 and US$ 50/metric ton of CO₂ equivalent. As usual, the adoption of the carbon tax generates adverse effects on GDP, wages and jobs in the short term, but reduces emissions and generates new government revenues, especially in the case of the greater tax. Second, we consider a broader tax system reform. In this reform, we replace distortionary taxes by a tax on value added. To compensate for the loss of government revenue, we assume a carbon tax with equivalent revenue. We find that the net effect is a GDP increase of 0.47%, the creation of 533 thousand jobs and reduction of 1.6 million tons of CO₂ emissions. Both scenarios exempt exports and levy imports to correct adverse effects on the country’s competitiveness.     

我国低碳经济转型下的情景分析和路径选择

发展低碳经济是各国应对气候变化的重要战略选择,文章借鉴IPAT模型,对2007-2020年我国经济发展、能源消耗和二氧化碳排放量的变化进行预测与分析。设定CO_2排放量的三个情景：基准情景（BAU）、提高能源效率情景（EEI）、低碳情景（LC）,结果表明：低碳情景方案是我国实现低碳发展最适当、最可行的方案。在此方案下,我国CO_2排放强度可以按原定计划下降40~45%,同时经济增长率可达到6%。最后,基于我国发展遵循低碳情景方案,进一步给出了三条低碳转型的路径,即技术创新、能源结构优化和政策指导。     

Appraising world energy prospects

The authors begin by outlining a multi-scenario technique for coping with future uncertainty in assessments of the business environment for energy planning. The discussion then leads to a quantification of world energy demand under two exploratory scenarios, whose results are compared with published forecasts. Analysis of the components of demand highlights the importance of the Third World. After a review of the world's fossil fuel resources, the likely effective availability of oil and other energy sources (including nuclear power and the renewables) is set against the scenario levels of energy demand. The paper ends with a summary of the implications for action in the field of energy.     

Including the Feedback of Local Health Improvement in Assessing Costs and Benefits of GHG Reduction

Ancillary benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation refer to benefits from GHG mitigation in addition to lowered adverse impacts of global climate change. A major ancillary benefit of GHG mitigation is reduced local air toxins, which improves health. The purpose of the study is not to determine whether ancillary benefits of GHG mitigation can or cannot justify GHG mitigation. Rather, we discuss how an important benefit of addressing GHG emission — the local health effects — should and can be incorporated using the approaches put forth. A CGE model is used for simulating a carbon tax policy. A health effects submodel takes the local air emissions output from the CGE model and assesses the implications for ambient air concentration, health, and labor supply. Labor and medical expenditure changes are fed back into the economy. Applying this approach to Thailand, when health feedback is included we find that: (1) negative impact on GDP under a carbon tax drops by 45%, and (2) welfare improves for households and cleaner producers.     

A scenario-based integrated approach for modeling carbon price risk

Carbon prices are highly dependent on government emission policies and local industrial compositions. When historical data does not exist or limited price data can only be sourced from another country, scenario analysis becomes the only tool for the modelling of future carbon prices. However, various plausible but equally possible scenarios can produce large variations in forecast carbon prices. In a traditional approach of scenario analysis, investment decisions or risk management strategies are proposed and analysed for each given scenario, optimal solutions are determined. However, when the number of scenarios becomes large, it often becomes too complex and intractable to have a clear view on the selection of investment decisions or risk-management strategies because these decisions and strategies are closely linked with each of the many scenarios. In this paper, it is proposed to use a stochastic mean-reversion model to represent future carbon price movements, but this model is calibrated to the forecast carbon prices of all the scenarios. In this approach, a single model is used to capture the underlying uncertainty and expectation of the stochastic carbon prices as projected by all the scenarios, carbon price risk can thus be modeled and analysed without the need for direct references to any specific scenarios. The modelling and management of long-term carbon-price risk are therefore purely dependent on future carbon price levels and volatilities of these scenarios, instead of on the scenarios themselves. Through such an approach, the optimization of investment decisions and risk management solutions can be much simpler because the forecasted carbon prices are the only input data.      

Using input–output models to estimate sectoral effects of carbon tax policy: Applications of the NGFS scenarios

The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) has engaged in scenario analysis that estimates a $200/ton carbon tax would be required to transition to net zero carbon by 2050. Using a $200/ton carbon tax as a base, this paper uses input–output (IO) modeling to generate price and revenue effects of a carbon tax. Results from these models, which can only be interpreted as the short-run, upper-bound effects of the carbon tax policy, imply that in response to a $200/ton tax on CO₂e emissions, carbon-intensive industries, such as agriculture, extraction, transportation, utilities, and chemicals, may experience price increases in the range of 10-30 percent. Other industries will also experience price increases, but to a lesser degree, due to increased input costs associated with the tax. In addition, modeling results also suggest that industries facing elastic pricing regimes may face similar-sized declines in revenues as a consequence of the carbon tax. Rank-ordered impact results from these models can be utilized by bank supervisors and firms to adequately plan for sectoral-level transition risk within their lending and/or investment portfolios.     

Strategic business risk evaluation for sustainable energy investment and stakeholder engagement: A proposal for energy policy development in the Middle East through Khalifa funding and land subsidies

This article projects business risk through deferent industrial scenarios in concentrated solar investments in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Nationwide, the government seeks a sustainable solution through energy policy development and engagement of the stakeholders for clean energy generation at wider level in the long run. Support has been extended through various support schemes. In the current study, Monte Carlo simulations and net present value (NPV) risk are used to analyse the return on investment. A 5 MW concave solar panel project is evaluated. We have assessed the impact of local factors on profits through NPV. The study proposes that a higher NPV is expected if the concave solar panel project is financed 50% by Khalifa funding. The study also proposes a robust policy and highlights the opportunity of business profitability if the government subsidises land leasing with respect to each scenario. Additionally, the study also proposes a policy to maintain the interests of investors in the UAE.     

Developing an emission risk control model in coal-fired power plants for investigating CO2 reduction strategies for sustainable business development

The climatic risk consists of financial and environmental risks, predominantly evolutes from carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants. We develop a climatic risk control model to investigate the coexistence of renewable energy and the post-combustion carbon capture technology as CO₂ reduction strategies. Additionally, our proposed framework explicitly considers the acceptance of such strategies based on a balance of electricity supply according to demand. This paper adopts an additive fuzzy mixed-integer optimization approach to model uncertain parameters and determines the optimal solution focusing on business and the environment. Furthermore, we investigate the feasibility of such emission control strategies with scenario analysis that help to execute the country's emission reduction policies. The usefulness of our methodology is demonstrated using data from the coal-based power sector in the Eastern part of India. Overall, with the proposed model, we can achieve 30% reduction in emission release, which provides strategies to the decision-maker for investment towards sustainable development.     

Achieving a 10% Cut in Europe's Carbon Dioxide Emissions using Additional Excise Duties: Coordinated,Uncoordinated and Unilateral Action using the Econometric Model E3ME

Coordinated, uncoordinated and unilateral policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 10% in 11 member states of the European Union (EU) by 2010 are compared with unilateral policies in each member state. The paper presents the results from four projections using a large-scale, integrated, regionalized E3 model of the EU (not a general equilibrium model) estimated on time series, cross-section data for 1968—93 with international trade treated as between each member state and a European transport and distribution network. The 10% reduction is achieved by additional excise duties incremented every year from 1999 to 2010, according to the carbon contents of fuels, with special treatment of electricity (taxed on outputs not inputs) and with revenues recycled via reductions in employers' social security contributions. Multilateral coordinated policies require a common tax rate of 156 Ecus per tonne carbon (1999 prices), which rises to an average of 162 Ecu/tonne, with a wide range between regions when policies are uncoordinated. All the tax shift projections show double dividends of emission reduction and employment gain for all member states. Unilateral policies do not show much carbon leakage and they show smaller gains for output and employment. The results are compared with those from a general equilibrium model (GEM-E3), tackling the same topic.     

Emissions burden shifting in global value chains – winners and losers under multi-regional versus bilateral accounting

ABSTRACT

International trade leads to emissions burden shifting and threatens mitigation targets. Multiregional input–output (MRIO) and bilateral trade input–output (BTIO) models are widely used to analyse emissions embodied in trade and global value chains. Especially, the last one is used in analysing border tax adjustment (BTA) on the carbon content of imports. The model choice is not trivial. The analysis shows BTIO's inability to capture the consumer-principle throughout the production chain and its inadequacy as an option for consumption-based accounting, because it allocates emissions to the first importing country and to the sector of production, instead to the consumer (both country and region). Regarding the BTA assessment, BTIO tax domestic carbon content of direct imports, but not indirect imported carbon content. MRIO does provide incentives for mitigation in third countries. The differences in allocation of emissions and taxes’ burden of both models have different consequences for developed and undeveloped regions.     

中国能源结构低碳化转型的政策分析

本文构建了中国能源-经济社会核算矩阵,使用SAM账户乘数分析方法探讨可再生能源电力产业在经济结构中的特征,部门扩张对其他经济部门的影响.同时利用SAM价格乘数研究不同的能源价格政策对经济系统的影响,结果表明政府采用对煤炭收取碳税的同时,对可再生能源电力产业进行补贴的价格政策是有效的.可再生能源电力产业的发展对经济结构的优化和能源结构低碳化转型有着积极作用,并能够降低成本推动型通货膨胀的发生风险.     

An International Carbon Tax to Combat Global Warming: An Economic and Political Analysis of the European Union Proposal

A bstract An international carbon tax has been the subject of considerable recent discussion as an economic incentive instrument to combat the perceived threat of global warming lesuking, primarily, from the use of the carbon emitting fossils–coal, oil, and natural gas–in the production of energy. During 1991, the European Union proposed the adoption of such a tax to be imposed by each member nation. The economic merits as well as the problems associated with the proposed European carbon tax are discussed along with the political prospects for its adoption. It is concluded that even though early adoption of the tax is unlikely, the economic merits of this tax instrument for the alleviation of global warming accompanied by changing political parameters may lead to its adoption in the long run.     

风光互补发电系统控制技术分析

风光互补发电技术可以将风能和太阳光能这两种应用最为广泛的可再生能源转变成电能,是当前节能减排时代的一个重要能源利用方向和发展方向。在风光互补发电系统控制技术应用的过程中,需要使系统保持在稳定安全的运行状态,提高设备和系统的运行效率与运行质量,从而保证发电系统功能的有效发挥。论文主要针对风光互补发电系统控制技术进行探究。     

关于国际避税主客观原因的分析

跨国纳税人在进行经营时利用国际避税来实现自己的最大利益．纳税人进行国际避税的主观原因在于追求经济利益最大化，客观原因则是多方面．如各国税收制度的不同、各国税收管辖权的选择不同和各国税收征管技术水平的差异等。进行避税原因的分析有助于维护国家利益和保证国际贸易的正常进行。     

国际碳税实践及对中国的启示

气候变化问题已成为当今世界各国面临的最重大挑战之一,面对内外压力,尽早采取有效应对措施应为中国政府的明智之举,开征碳税是一种有效应对措施。本研究对比分析了国际主要碳税征收国的碳税实践,以期为中国未来的减碳路径提供借鉴。     

Business and the genesis of the European Community carbon tax proposal

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of business in the regulatory process associated with the carbon tax proposal. The first part of the paper describes the Community's climate change policy, noting first the essential features of Community environment policy-making, the role of consultation with industry and the significance of the ‘subsidiarity’ principle. This part of the paper moves on to examine the carbon tax proposal and its evolution since 1990. The second part of the paper addresses the specific role which business played in influencing the development of the carbon tax proposal. The general strategy of business was to block the proposal entirely. The paper identifies the potential impacts of the tax on business, implications for corporate strategies and the specific channels through which business influenced the tax proposal, by participating in public debates, through representations to different directorates of the European Commission or by making a case to national authorities. The final part of the paper attempts to draw some lessons about: the business position in relation to large scale environmental problems such as climate change; business responses to economic instruments such as the carbon/energy tax; and the wider relationship between public authorities and business in regulatory processes. The question of whether this relationship has entered a new phase or whether there is still ‘business as usual’ is addressed.     

Are Corporate Tax Reductions Real Benefits under Imputation Systems?

Imputation systems integrate corporate and shareholder personal income taxes to alleviate double taxation of dividend income. In this study, we empirically examine whether a corporate tax rate reduction under an imputation tax system benefits shareholders. Using Taiwan as a setting, our analyses indicate that decreasing the corporate tax rate is associated with an increase in dividend payout ratio and foreign investment. Moreover, the increase in dividend payout ratio is even greater for firms that have a higher increase in foreign ownership. Additionally, the market reacts positively to an announcement of a tax rate reduction; specifically, positive stock price reactions are stronger for firms that experienced a greater increase in foreign ownership in response to the tax rate reduction, for firms with greater liquidity constraints and more growth opportunities before the tax rate reduction, and for firms with a bigger decrease in effective tax rates after the tax rate reduction. Overall, we provide evidence that a tax rate reduction is associated with economic impacts and that foreign shareholders appear to be the main beneficiaries of a tax rate reduction under an imputation tax system.