INCOME INEQUALITY AND POLITICAL POLARIZATION AND FRACTURALIZATION:AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF SOME EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

This paper investigates the relationship between economic inequality and the distribution of votes among political parties, namely political polarization and fracturalization. Economic inequality is captured by the Gini index, whereas new measures of political polarization and fracturalization are offered. This is the first paper to calculate political polarization and fracturalization indices by a methodology previously used for ethnic, religious and linguistic polarization and fracturalization. Empirical analysis uses data for 17 European countries and for three decades, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. It is shown that increased income inequality increases political party polarization and reduces fracturalization and that political party polarization decreases with increased GDP per capita.     

转型国家初期的经济绩效差异性及分解:一项基于模糊理论的实证研究

如何正确评价转型国家经济绩效一直是转型经济学研究的一个重点。经过研究发现,转型国家初期在不同的转型策略选择下出现了明显的绩效分叉现象,而出现绩效分叉的主要原因可能是生产能力的差异。而在生产能力体系中,投资水平是最重要的。     

A NEW METHOD FOR THE ESTIMATION OF CAPACITY UTILIZATION: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM 14 EU COUNTRIES

In this paper, we develop a new and at the same time simple method of obtaining a measure of the rate of capacity utilization (CU) which makes use of the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) system of equation estimating technique with long‐run restrictions. The measure of CU that we derive for each of 14 EU countries replicates to a great extent the European Commission's Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (ECFIN) measure. On closer examination we find that the in‐sample explanatory content with respect to the inflation rate of the SVAR measure exceeds more often than not that of the ECFIN's measure; however, the out‐of‐sample forecasting performance of the two models is approximately equivalent.     

THE FORMATION OF INFLATION PERCEPTIONS: SOME EMPIRICAL FACTS FOR EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

This paper investigates how households form their perceptions of consumer price inflation. Using data from the harmonized European Union consumer survey, we find that inflation perceptions are inefficient and highly heterogeneous, yet contemporaneously related to the actual rate of inflation. Consequently, we estimate how often households update their beliefs using Carroll's (2003) epidemiological model. Our results indicate that inflation perceptions are generally less responsive to new information than expectations. Unlike studies on expectations, we cannot confirm that a constant fraction of the population updates information every month. Also, the cross‐sectional heterogeneity of perceptions is higher than implied by infrequent updating alone.     

FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF SEVEN FEDERATIONS

Although fiscal policies of central governments sometimes provide modest insurance against regional income shocks, this paper shows that procyclical fiscal policy among provincial governments can easily overwhelm these stabilizing effects. We examine the cyclicality of budget items among provincial governments in seven federations, showing that own-source taxes are generally highly procyclical, and contrary to common wisdom, revenue sharing and discretionary transfers are either acyclical or procyclical. Constituent governments are thus left alone to smooth their own shocks, and we document the extent to which various restraints on borrowing and saving undermine their ability to do so. The resulting procyclicality of provincial fiscal policy is likely to have important implications in a world where demands for countercyclical fiscal policy are increasing but considerable fiscal responsibilities are being devolved to subnational governments.     

DETERMINANTS OF A FIRM'S ISO 14001 CERTIFICATION: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF TAIWAN

Abstract.   Only rarely have empirical studies analysed the responses of Taiwanese manufacturing firms to ISO 14001, despite firm responses to environmental issues being an important aspect of environmental management. This study empirically examines the determinants of firms' environmental self-governance. Export oriented Taiwanese firms, which face environmental concerns from foreign consumers, are found to be more likely than domestic focused firms to adopt ISO 14001. This study also finds that several firm attributes are decisive for firm adoption of ISO 14001. However, this study does not find any significant impact of local governors' political party affiliation on firms' ISO 14001 certifications.     

ALTERNATIVE FUELS FOR POLLUTION CONTROL: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF BENEFITS AND COSTS

In July 1989, the Bush administration proposed a new, dramatic approach to constructing clean air legislation. In particular, the Bush proposal calls for using alternative fuels as an important component to reducing urban ozone and carbon monoxide. This paper summarizes the Bush proposal, looks briefly at other options to reduce urban air pollution, and empirically evaluates the cost effectiveness of alternative fuels as an air pollution control strategy. The paper finds that the cost per ton of emissions reduced–the measure of cost effectiveness–varies dramatically as the price of gasoline vis a vis the price of the alternative fuel changes. For this reason, the authors believe that new clean air legislation should allow for great flexibility so as to allow states to incorporate alternative fuels when they are cost effective. If oil prices turn out to be lower than expected, then forcing urban centers to adopt relatively more expensive alternative fuels would impose high costs.     

跨国生产函数之普适性的实证分析

本文运用组数据同积检验法考察覆盖22个国家、跨度从1971年至1990年的相关宏观经济时间序列变量。实证分析显示产出与投入之间同积关系的存在与否——不论这种同积关系是由二要素还是由三要素柯布—道榕拉斯生产函数来代表,关键取决于各国经济发展的独特初始特征和独特时间趋势特征是否被考虑到。我们的发现表明不存在适用于所有国家的通用生产函数,这就对那些在经济发展之国家比较研究中简单假设存在通用生产函数的做法提出了强烈质疑。     

AN EXPERIMENT ON CORRUPTION AND GENDER

A number of papers with field data have found differences in the corrupt activities of males and females; nonetheless they have drawbacks that may be overcome in a laboratory experiment. The aim of this paper is to see experimentally whether women and men, facing the same situation behave in a different way, as suggested in the field‐data studies or, on the contrary, whether they behave in the same way. The results found in the experiment show that women are indeed less corrupt than men.     

都市近郊特色古镇休闲旅游开发研究——以长沙靖港古镇为例

目前古镇旅游较少地触及古村镇旅游发展的内在机理和演变规律,研究的案例样本集中于江南古镇、皖南古镇和川西古镇等几个地域。以湖南长沙靖港古镇为例,探讨位于城郊,区域文化厚重,自然风光优美的都市特色古镇休闲旅游形成、开发的背景、条件和途径。     

城市居民对居住区位的偏好及其区位选择的实证研究

利用详实的社会调查数据,考察了我国城市居民对居住区位的偏好和支付意愿,以及居民实际的区位选择。首先对影响居民对居住区位支付意愿高低(即支付意愿梯度)的因素进行了理论分析,分析了因素之间的相关关系,并探讨了研究支付意愿与区位选择差异性的方法。在理论分析基础上,建立了支付意愿梯度模型和区位选择模型,利用北京、上海、广州、武汉和重庆五城市的调研数据对模型参数进行了估计。结果显示,高收入群体仍倾向于居住在距离市中心偏近的位置,工作地点、对环境的偏好、城市规模和郊区基础设施完善程度都会从各种方面影响支付意愿的梯度值。市场力量已经在居住区位资源的配置中发挥重要作用,但存量住房流动性低和一部分居民的融资能力不足仍阻碍了其自由的区位选择。     

CORRUPTION AND CORPORATE FINANCE PATTERNS: AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

Abstract.  This study demonstrates the importance of government corruption in shaping corporate finance patterns across countries. Corruption contributes to a more prevalent and higher degree of corporate equity ownership concentration and more reliance on bank financing in raising external finance. It argues that corporate governance under corrupt governments is particularly poor. Firm management, taking advantage of political capital acquired through bribery, is especially powerful in expropriating from outside investors. Ownership concentration and reliance on bank financing are means of mitigating the corporate governance problem under a corrupt government.     

基于区位角度的城市化与经济发展之间互动关系的实证研究--以浙江省为例

以往的研究中很少突出区位条件对城市化与经济发展之间关系的影响。文章以浙江省“各县市”为样本,运用单位根检验、OLS等方法从区位条件角度对城市化与经济发展之间的互动关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,区位条件影响了经济发展过程,但对城市化则无显著影响。最后对研究的不足之处进行了说明。     

AN ANALYSIS OF REVISIONS OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS DATA FOR 40 COUNTRIES

The paper analyzes annual revisions of figures for G.N.P. and 8 of its components in 40 countries. It arrives at the conclusion that first estimates are very often significantly biased downwards, especially Private Consumption, Fixed Investment, G.D.P. and G.N.P. Also successive revisions are sometimes correlated (negatively in most cases). The distribution of revisions differ as between developed and developing countries.     

征地费使用方式与农村社会养老保险的实证研究

在城市化进程中,除了征地权滥用外,由于集体土地产权的模糊性使得征地补偿费如何在农民集体和个人及其他相关利益主体之间的分配难以形成公正、合理的格局。在我国社会保障实行城乡分割的二元化政策下,失地农民缺乏应有的保障。这些现象对我国社会经济正常运行以及社会稳定发展造成了不可忽视的影响。文章以杭州市拱墅区为例,对征地费使用方式与农村社会养老保险进行了实证研究,探讨了征地费的使用方式及其对农村社会养老保险的影响并提出了规范征地费的使用和管理,促进农村社会养老保险的建议。     

INSTABILITY AND THE INCENTIVES FOR CORRUPTION

We investigate the relationship between corruption and political stability, from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We propose a model of incumbent behavior that features the interplay of two effects: a horizon effect , whereby greater instability leads the incumbent to embezzle more during his short window of opportunity, and a demand effect , by which the private sector is more willing to bribe stable incumbents. The horizon effect dominates at low levels of stability, because firms are unwilling to pay high bribes and unstable incumbents have strong incentives to embezzle, whereas the demand effect gains salience in more stable regimes. Together, these two effects generate a non-monotonic, U-shaped relationship between total corruption and stability. On the empirical side, we find a robust U-shaped pattern between country indices of corruption perception and various measures of incumbent stability, including historically observed average tenures of chief executives and governing parties: regimes that are very stable or very unstable display higher levels of corruption when compared with those in an intermediate range of stability. These results suggest that minimizing corruption may require an electoral system that features some re-election incentives, but with an eventual term limit.     

外贸对经济增长的影响分析:理论与经验模型验证

国际贸易理论的核心问题是探究贸易利益的产生及其分配,国际贸易与经济增长具有密切联系。理论分析和经验证据均表明,一国外贸规模对经济增长有着重要作用,对外贸易的变动往往成为决定一国经济增长趋势的关键因素。文章从理论和经验模型上对我国近10多年来外贸和经济增长的关系给出了相关的实证检验,旨在探讨并揭示国际贸易促进经济增长的内在机制。     

A MODEL OF BUREAUCRACY AND CORRUPTION*

We analyze bureaucracy and corruption in a market with decentralized exchange and “lemons.” Exchange is modeled as a sequence of bilateral, random matches. Agents have private information about the quality of goods they produce and can supplement trade with socially inefficient bribes. Bureaucracy is modeled as a group of agents who enjoy centralized production and consumption. Transaction patterns between the bureaucracy and the private sector are fully endogenous. Centralized production and consumption in the bureaucracy give rise to low power incentives for the individual bureaucrats. As a result, private agents might bribe bureaucrats, whereas they do not bribe each other. An equilibrium with corruption and an equilibrium without corruption can coexist. We discuss some welfare implications of the model.