异质性、分割生产与国际贸易

在产品的生产链条可以任意分割的情况下，本文考察了不同生产率的公司供应国外市场模式的差异。生产率水平较低的公司选择出口方式；生产率水平较高的公司选择分割生产投资方式，其中，生产率水平越高的公司配置在国外的生产环节越多；生产率水平最高的那些公司选择水平型投资方式。在行业层面，一个行业的技术可分割性越强和行业内公司生产率的异质性越大时，行业的产品出口相对于直接投资的比例越小。     

国际分割生产对中国制造业出口结构的影响

在考虑和不考虑国际分割生产的情况下,虽然中国制造业的出口结构均呈改善趋势,即资源密集型行业和劳动密集型行业的出口份额在逐渐下降,资本或技术密集型行业的出口份额在上升,但是在分离了国际分割生产的影响后,高技术含量的出口比重并不高,如果没有国际分割生产,则中国出口结构的改善是有限的。因此,在分析我国制造业出口时必须考虑国际分割生产这一因素。     

异质性、出口与中国企业技术创新

本文使用来自中国企业的大样本微观数据,运用Probit模型对影响企业创新的异质性特征从全要素生产率（TFP）因素进行了拓展,同时将所有制异质性作为“基础因子”,综合考察了多维度异质性特征、出口等对中国企业技术创新的影响。结果发现：(1)TFP因素对所有类型企业的创新倾向均具有显著的正向影响,即表现出明显的“创新自选择”效应;(2)出口参与因素显著提高了各类型企业的创新倾向,但出口密度因素对国有和民营企业的技术创新影响存在显著的倒U型关系,而对外资企业技术创新影响的非线性关系并不明显;(3)其他影响因素如企业规模、人力资本等异质性特征在不同类型企业的创新决策中表现各异。     

政策执行与市场分割:《劳动合同法》长期影响的异质性研究

本文基于中国综合社会调查2006-2015年数据,综合群组比较和时期分析,考察了中国2008年《劳动合同法》对不同类型非农受雇者劳动合同签订、收入和工作时长的长期影响,以图理解制度变迁和政策执行对社会不平等的影响.研究结果表明,《劳动合同法》实施当年劳动合同签订率明显提高,但因政策执行力度下降,合同签订率随后有所回落,其后再缓慢上升或稳定;《劳动合同法》实施对不同群体的影响存在异质性,主要劳动力市场合同签订率较高,增长较快且不易回落,次要劳动力市场劳动合同签订率较低,增长相对缓慢;不同群体在合同签订方面的差距一度有所扩大,回落后仍始终存在.执行力度差异和劳动力市场分割结构等社会结构为政策制度的异质性影响提供了解释.     

分割生产、垂直型投资与产业内贸易

文章在Dixit-Stiglitz垄断竞争的框架下,分析了在产品的生产环节可以任意分割的条件下,跨国公司在国内外配置生产环节的决定因素,并分析了为分割生产而进行的垂直型投资对贸易和消费者福利产生的动态影响.研究结果表明,与对垂直型投资的传统研究不同,为分割生产进行的垂直型投资和贸易的动态关系始终是替代关系,跨国公司出于自身利益考虑的分割生产行为正好使消费者福利水平达到最大.     

公司异质性、在职消费与机构投资者治理

文章实证检验了在代理成本不同的上市公司中,机构投资者持股与管理层在职消费之间的关系。研究发现,机构投资者持股能够有效降低管理层在职消费,而且这种抑制作用在代理成本较高的公司中更加明显;同时,管理层在职消费与公司绩效负相关,这一负相关关系同样在代理成本较高的公司中更加显著。研究结果表明,大力发展机构投资者有利于公司治理的改善,而且在代理成本不同的上市公司中机构投资者的治理作用存在显著差异。     

异质性与跨国公司的战略选择

新新贸易理论将公司异质性引入到国际贸易理论中,从微观层面解释了公司国际化的战略选择。但它们通常假定两国是同质的,所以公司国际化的选择仅局限于出IZl贸易和水平型直接投资。本文构建了三国模型,考察了跨国公司的三种战略选择模式。理论研究表明,生产率最高的公司选择水平型直接投资,生产率较高的公司选择出口平台直接投资,生产率较低的公司选择出口贸易,生产率最低的公司只供应国内市场。发达国家的相对工人工资水平越高、发展中国家建厂成本越小,选择出口和水平型直接投资的公司会越少,而选择出口平台的直接投资公司会越多。     

异质性企业、结构转型与稳定出口

通过构建异质性企业、结构转型和出口增长的二元边际理论模型,本文认为转型国家出口增长主要沿集约边际实现的原因与其农业剩余劳动力有关,农业剩余劳动力越多,出口增长的集约边际越大、扩展边际越小。利用Tobit模型对1995-2009年中国出口到123个国家的HS-6位码贸易数据进行实证分析,在控制其他影响因素的前提下,我国农业剩余劳动力非农转移显著正向影响出口增长集约边际、负向影响扩展边际的效应确实存在。经济规模、贸易成本、人民币升值、区域经济一体化、外部冲击、语言的相通性、政治体制等变量对中国出口增长二元边际的影响机制不完全相同,表明要提高出口增长中的扩展边际比重,出口企业应实施市场多元化战略,将目标市场从传统高收入国家转移到发展中国家来,实现出口的稳定增长。     

企业规模异质性与出口模式选择:间接、混合与直接出口

基于异质性企业贸易理论,运用2013年世界银行公布的中国制造业企业调查数据,采用线性回归模型和有序多分类logistic回归模型两种方法,研究了微型、小型、中型和大型四种企业规模与间接出口、混合出口和直接出口三种出口模式之间的关系。研究发现,随着企业规模的提高,企业越来越倾向于降低间接出口和混合出口模式,相应地增加对直接出口模式的选择。这意味着,由于运用直接出口模式进入国外市场时支付的固定成本较高,不同的企业能够根据其规模特征在间接出口、混合出口和直接出口三种模式中作出理性的选择。因此,我国在制定出口促进政策时应该将企业规模和三种出口模式予以充分考虑。     

出口、FDI与异质性企业的国际化选择文献综述

国际贸易理论研究的核心内容从国家和产业层面转向了对企业的研究,分析异质性企业的国际化选择,即出口与FDI(这里意为对外投资)的选择,已成为新贸易理论的重要内容.本文在区分不同类型FDI的基础上,对企业的国际化选择进行梳理,厘清其发展脉络.在此基础上,进一步分析企业生产组织模式的选择,即垂直一体化与外包的选择,重点介绍了企业边界的产权理论.本文涵盖了该领域国外及国内的最新研究成果,通过总结现有研究的特点与不足,指出未来研究的潜在方向.     

CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE

This paper derives estimating equations from a model where individuals consume two classes of goods, and the degree of contract enforcement affects the transaction cost of trade in the two classes of goods differentially. Empirically, using Rauch's classification, internationally traded goods are classified into differentiated goods and those possessing a reference price, with the presumption that contract enforcement issues are more important for the former. It is verified that the measures of contract enforcement affect the volume of trade in both types of goods, but the impact is larger for differentiated goods.     

INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

The paper considers a two-region model of trade based on the authors'earlier (HS) model, in which two nontraded goods, one urban and one rural, were introduced into the Harris-Todaro model. The HS framework captures the duality of the labour market, and it is argued that the HS model is suited to the purpose of regional analysis where the urban and rural agents may be in conflict as their welfare (income) may not respond in an identical manner to exogenous shocks and policy changes. The paper examines the implications of a change in capital and the terms of trade on outputs and regional incomes. It is established that in response to a terms-of-trade shock the prices of urban and rural nontraded goods could move in opposite directions, so structural change could also be in opposite directions. The same could also be true of welfare in the two regions.     

APEC: INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND OUTPUT

Abstract.  This paper estimates the effect that the APEC 'currency union', loosely defined, has on trade and, via trade, on output per capita. A gravity model is used to measure the impact of exchange-rate variability on trade flows within APEC. The gain in trade flows from eliminating nominal exchange-rate variability through the formation of a currency union is less than 1%. Furthermore, every 1% increase in trade (relative to GDP) raises income per capita by roughly 0.3% for twenty years. Adopting the dollar currency union is much more profitable than adopting a yen currency union for each country in APEC.     

INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS*

In this article, industrial evolution is driven by endogenous technology choices of firms, generating a rich environment that includes the possibility of a dramatic shakeout. The likelihood, magnitude, and timing of this shakeout are characterized and depend not only on the size of an innovation but also on cost structure. In this setting, trade liberalization reduces the likelihood of a shakeout, resulting in more stable industrial structures. However, when shakeouts arise in global markets, the distribution of exits can vary widely across countries. Furthermore, conditions exist where a shakeout occurs in a closed economy but not in an open economy.     

INTERNATIONAL TRADE REGIMES AND PRIVATE PROPERTY RIGHTS

Regimes such as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which require constant management by diplomacy, must deteriorate over time. They are bound by precedent, but their precedents, created by negotiation rather than by law, are unprincipled and cumulatively erode the foundations of the regime. To enshrine the objectives of the GATT more precisely in national law would make private property rights more secure against arbitrary government manipulation, and would serve the logic of democratic constitutionalism. Finally, reform of the GATT should be directed to (a) reducing permissible protection to tariffs, (b) securing nondiscrimination, and (c) providing negotiating and legal opportunities for the binding of tariff schedules.     

INTERNATIONAL TRADE BARGAINING AND THE MOST-FAVORED-NATION CLAUSE*

This paper advances a model of multilateral trade negotiations to analyze the effects of the most-favored-nation clause (MFN) on international trade agreements. Negotiations are modeled in a three player, non-cooperative, dynamic bargaining framework that admits the possibility of both bilateral and multilateral agreements. The central result is that bargaining in the presence of MFN results in Pareto efficient, mutually advantageous, multilateral trade agreements. The free-rider problem commonly attributed to the presence of MFN does not arise, and, under a condition of symmetry, each country receives equal gains (or reciprocity) from the agreement. In the absence of MFN, many of these properties may not hold. Examples are given in which at most two of the three countries benefit from agreement. These results suggest that many of the criticisms levied against the MFN clause are misplaced; moreover, attempts to replace unconditional MFN with conditional MFN may sacrifice many of the long-held values of the GATT.