我国银行业信用风险预警及评级体系研究——基于新巴塞尔资本协议的分析

目前国内外对银行信用风险评级体系的分析方法缺乏系统性、预见性和前瞻性,模型设计中存在前提假设与现实不一致、数据和参数的选定误差风险等问题.建立我国信用评级体系,应该以系统性、配套性和更新优化等原则为依据,在此基础上注重模型假设理论一致性、变量现实性和参数的可观测性等以降低模型风险.     

股份制商业银行风险管理制度建设的相关问题探讨

本文从面临内部制约因素和外部环境来指出并分析股份制商业银行风险管理现状以及存在的缺陷,对股份制商业银行风险管理制度建设应建立健全银行内部风险防范系统、加强信用评级体系建设、建立职业经理人市场等方向提出建议。     

金融支持实体经济的信用模式优化——基于商业信用和银行信用的比较研究

商业信用和银行信用是两种最基本的信用模式,在实体经济部门的产业循环中,要求资金的供给和融通在纵向和横向上相互结合,即银行信用和商业信用两者不可或缺、相互兼容。从银行信用影响因素、商业信用与银行信用、产融结合与企业经营效率、产融结合与企业风险承担能力四个方面进行理论分析,并利用我国上市公司2010—2020年的数据进行实证检验后发现,国有资本参股、市场占有率高的企业更加容易获得银行信用;商业信用对银行信用具有重要的补充特征,缺乏短期贷款的企业通常以更多的商业信用来补充,获得短期贷款越多的企业对下游企业提供的商业信用越多;企业使用商业信用对营业收入利润率产生正向影响,而使用银行信用对营业收入利润率产生反向影响;企业获得商业信用提升了风险承担能力,企业提供商业信用却降低了风险承担能力。因此,应建立健全商业信用体系,促进商业信用发展,强化信用体系建设,推进商业信用制度创新。     

内外部评级结合：商业银行信贷风险管理的有效选择

间接融资在我国企业融资中占绝对优势，而来自经济、社会、文化方面的各类因素不断诱发着诸多形态的银行信贷资金风险，而作为当前商业银行控制信贷风险手段之一的内部评级具有一定的局限性，需要外部评级为商业银行信贷风险监管助力。文章通过对我国借款企业信用评级的内涵、种类及内外部评级优势比较的分析，简述外部评级在信贷风险防范中的作用，并提出建立“内外结合”的信用评级体系，有效防范银行信用风险的建议。     

主权信用评级对证券市场的影响研究述评

国际证券市场的持续动荡,使得主权信用评级的影响作用越加突现。诸多研究指出,主权信用评级调整对股票市场和债券市场都存在影响,但由于市场对信息的敏感程度不同,股票市场比债券市场的反应剧烈,而且股票市场对主权信用评级调整能作出提前响应。由于市场预期和经济周期的合力作用,市场存在着对正负评级变化的不对称反应。因此,对现有文献进行梳理和评议,一方面增进了人们对这一问题的认识和理解,另一方面也为制定风险防范政策提供了一定的参考依据。     

所有权性质、商业信用与信贷资源配置效率

商业信用的再分配理论认为,易于获得银行信用的企业会将这些信用以商业信用的形式再分配给难以获得银行信用的下游企业。本文以2004～2007年中国工业企业数据库为样本,检验国有企业和私有企业的信用再分配功能,结果发现,尽管国有企业获得的银行信用显著多于私有企业,但提供的商业信用净额却显著少于私有企业。而且,国有企业获得的银行信用与提供的商业信用不相关,而私有企业获得的银行信用与提供的商业信用显著正相关。这些结果说明,国有企业获得更多的银行信用但并没有发挥信用再分配功能,而私有企业尽管只获得少量的银行信用却较好地发挥了信用再分配功能。这些结果意味着,如果银行体系适当增加对私有企业的信用配置,同时减少对国有企业的信用配置,可以充分发挥私有企业的信用再分配功能,提高银行体系的资源配置效率。     

外部信用评级结果使用现状与思考

信用评级业在我国是一个新兴行业,是社会信用体系的重要组成部分。信用评级又分外部信用评级和内部信用评级。外部信用评级主要为银行和投资者所使用,目前因诸多因素的制约。外部信用评级结果未得到广泛的使用,评级结果使用率低的问题比较突出。因而在建立社会信用制度,促进信用评级业发展中应思考如何提高外部信用评级结果的使用率。     

多边开发银行的信用特征及主要风险

危机爆发后，欧美货币传导机制失灵，信贷市场停滞，多边开发银行却逆势大幅扩张资产负债表，发挥了关键的逆周期稳定器的作用。虽然多边开发银行部分股东国由于危机冲击而导致信用评级下调，但三大评级机构却不约而同地给予各家多边开发银行3A的最高评级，这背后的原因是什么？支撑多边开发银行信用的增益机制有哪些？多边开发银行面临哪些主要风险？本文试图对上述问题作出解答。     

信用评级机构的市场地位研究

中国信用评级机构的市场地位具有"非独立性"。商业银行对借款企业信用评级的有效需求不足、对外部信用评级结果不重视、银行内部的操作风险和借款企业对高信用等级的偏好影响了信用评级机构的独立性和公正性,降低了信用评级结果的质量。     

信托投资公司信用等级评价研究

当前信用评级一般通过打分以加权和的形式作为评级的依据,存在较大的主观性和随意性。根据信托投资公司的特点,提出信托投资公司信用评级的指标体系及评级标准,把灰关联度和灰熵结合起来,运用灰关联熵模型对其进行信用等级识别,为信用评级提供新的方法、思路。     

国际银行业重组对我国银行业的启示

当前国际银行业重组呈现出新的特征。重组以应对金融全球化、电子化与自由化 ,并最终夺取国际银行业霸主地位为契机 ,并以并购为主要方式。银行业的并购重组已引发了整个国际金融业的大购并。我国银行为实现规模经济 ,迅速提高自身的竞争能力 ,也加快了重组的步伐 ,以期通过金融整合来提高与国外银行业竞争的能力。     

Banking in Croatia; Macroeconomic Conditions and the Banking Reform in Croatia

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

商业银行规则导向监管与原则导向监管的比较

2007年的金融海啸以及由此引发的经济危机,引发人们对欧美以及其他发达国家金融监管部门监管方式的质疑。本文通过介绍国外主要的监管方式,即规则导向监管和原则导向监管,比较两种监管方式的特点、优点、缺点,并提出将两种监管方式相结合,为我国商业银行监管提供借鉴的思路。     

国际银行并购与中国银行业发展

作为银行组织机构创新方式之一的银行并购，其最终目的是促进银行体制创新业和业务创新。根据中国银行业所面临的国际国内环境，体制改革和业务创新刻不容缓，寻求一个更加有效的银行组织因而显得非常必要的，银行并购是一种理想的途径。     

Banking crises in monetary economies

Abstract.  This paper analyzes the effect of inflation on banking crises in a model in which money and banks play essential roles. The model's equilibrium replicates some key features of actual banking crises, namely, the partial suspension of payments and the desire to hold cash even in the absence of pressing liquidity needs. When banks have access to a stable foreign currency, inflation has a threshold effect on banking crises: higher inflation reduces the likelihood of crises when inflation is below the threshold; the reverse happens when inflation exceeds the threshold. This result appears to be broadly consistent with available evidence.     

Free Banking in Hong Kong

Hong Kong has no central bank and its paper currency is issued by two private commercial banks. Cointegration tests and an error-correction model are used to examine the stability of the money supply process under pegged and floating exchange rates. Empirical evidence suggests feedback between the price level and money supply during the floating rate period but stability under a pegged rate. [E 42]     

国际银行业的新发展及其对中国银行业的启示

本首先分析了近年来国际银行业发展的新趋势,包括经营多元化、巨型化、电子化和监管的精细化,然后提出了中国银行业发展的应对措施。     

Credit Losses in Australasian Banking

We analyse the determinants of bank credit losses in Australasia. Despite sizeable credit losses over the past two decades, ours is the first systematic study to do so. Analysis is based on a comprehensive dataset retrieved from original financial reports of 32 Australasian banks (1980–2005). Credit losses rise when the macro economy is weak. Asset markets, particularly the equity market, are also important. Larger banks provide more for credit losses while banks with high cost-income-ratios show greater loan loss provisions. Strong loan growth translates into significantly higher credit losses with a lag of 2–4 years. Finally, the results show strong evidence of income smoothing activities by banks.     

Banking efficiency in transition economies

An increasing share of the banking sector is controlled by foreign capital in the majority of transition countries. To analyse the effects of this trend on the performance of the banking sector in these countries, this study conducts a comparative analysis of the performance of foreign‐owned and domestic‐owned banks operating in the Czech Republic and Poland. We use the stochastic frontier approach to compute cost efficiency scores. Following Mester (1996 ), financial capital is included in the cost frontier model to control for risk preferences. Our finding is that on average foreign‐owned banks are more efficient than domestic‐owned banks. We conclude, however, that this advantage does not result from differences in the scale of operations or the structure of activities.     

China's Banking Reform

This article discusses the main problems facing the Chinese banking system and concludes that, despite serious problems, the risk seems small that, in the near future, a financial crisis will occur that will pose severe problems for the international financial system. An internal financial crisis, however, could occur. Without government support, the economic viability of many of China's banks is questionable. The government and central bank authorities acknowledge the situation and have taken some steps toward reform. The most serious threat to the banking system lies in the accumulation of non-performing loans (NPLs)--many of them policybased loans extended by state-owned banks to money-losing state-owned companies with little expectation that they would be completely repaid. China has been taking measures to keep the problem from worsening and has created four asset management companies to dispose of NPLs that still have value. Since the Chinese economic reforms began in 1978, Chinese authorities have made significant progress in modernising their banking system, although they still have a long way to go. However, there are several ameliorating factors that still keep its financial and foreign exchange system viable. China's continued high rate of growth and high savings rate have funneled deposits into the banking system, while a $20-30 billion annual trade surplus together with an inflow of foreign direct investment at about $40 billion per year have resulted in an accumulation of foreign exchange reserves exceeding $200 billion. China does not carry an unusually heavy debt burden, either domestic or international, although its short-term borrowing in foreign currencies has been increasing. China does not currently face a serious risk of either a domestic or international liquidity crisis--unless, of course, a severe and prolonged world recession occurs that adversely affects Chinese exports as well as the inflow of foreign direct investment.