Forecasting Connecticut home sales in a BVAR framework using coincident and leading indexes

We develop a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model (BVAR) to forecast home sales in Connecticut. In addition to home prices and mortgage interest rates, we also include measures of current and future economic conditions to see if these variables provide useful information with which to forecast Connecticut home sales. The best performing model incorporates recently developed coincident and leading employment indexes for Connecticut. These composite indexes perform markedly better than the inclusion of individual variables such as the unemployment rate or housing permits authorized.     

The sales learning curve

When a company launches a new product into a new market, the temptation is to immediately ramp up sales force capacity to gain customers as quickly as possible. But hiring a full sales force too early just causes the firm to burn through cash and fail to meet revenue expectations. Before it can sell an innovative product efficiently, the entire organization needs to learn how customers will acquire and use it, a process the authors call the sales learning curve. The concept of a learning curve is well understood in manufacturing. Employees transfer knowledge and experience back and forth between the production line and purchasing, manufacturing, engineering, planning, and operations. The sales learning curve unfolds similarly through the give-and-take between the company--marketing, sales, product support, and product development--and its customers. As customers adopt the product, the firm modifies both the offering and the processes associated with making and selling it. Progress along the manufacturing curve is measured by tracking cost per unit: The more a firm learns about the manufacturing process, the more efficient it becomes, and the lower the unit cost goes. Progress along the sales learning curve is measured in an analogous way: The more a company learns about the sales process, the more efficient it becomes at selling, and the higher the sales yield. As the sales yield increases, the sales learning process unfolds in three distinct phases--initiation, transition, and execution. Each phase requires a different size--and kind--of sales force and represents a different stage in a company's production, marketing, and sales strategies. Adjusting those strategies as the firm progresses along the sales learning curve allows managers to plan resource allocation more accurately, set appropriate expectations, avoid disastrous cash shortfalls, and reduce both the time and money required to turn a profit.     

Professionalism, organizational commitment and job satisfaction in an accounting organization

With growth in the number of professionals employed in organizations, concern has been expressed over potential conflict between the professionalism of these employees and their commitment to the organization. Empirical studies examining the relationships between professionalism, organizational commitment and job satisfaction have reported inconsistent results. This paper examines these variables in an organization setting involving several field offices of a “Big Eight” U.S. accounting firm. Accountants who reported high levels of professionalism also reported high levels of organizational commitment. Additionally, both professionalism and organizational commitment were strongly related to job satisfaction.     

The accountable governance of provincial governments of a Pacific island country

ABSTRACT

Using the theory of indigenous alternatives and a benchmark of indigenous financial reporting expectations, this paper examines the challenges to accountable governance of the nine provincial governments of the Solomon Islands for the years 1998 to 2017. Every provincial government consistently received disclaimed or qualified opinions from the state auditor. The author explains why the regional development of all provinces of the Solomon Islands could be improved if rudimentary forms of financial reporting were to be addressed.     

The double jeopardy of sales promotions

The maturing of most consumer markets in the United States has put great pressure on manufacturers in their search for growth. They have concentrated on building sales and expanding share proportions in the stagnant markets with devices like niche products, product extensions, mergers, and international ventures. They have shifted emphasis to sales promotions at the expense of advertising. But promotions, when you come right down to it, mean price reductions. Trade promotions are almost always rebates, and consumer promotions are usually temporary price reductions or coupons. The cost in reduced profit, demonstrated mathematically through calculations of price elasticity, is severe. Besides, when the promotion is over, the manufacturer has not moved forward an inch in shoring up the brand franchise. Promotions bring volatile demand, whereas the producer seeks stable demand. By sustaining a brand image and building customer loyalty, on the other hand, theme advertising can stabilize demand. Moreover, this type of advertising is less likely than promotion is to invite destructive competitive retaliation. Calculation of the advertising elasticity of a brand indicates that sometimes even modest sales increases can produce healthy profit improvement. In a well-planned marketing campaign, there is often good reason to include trade or consumer promotion--to counter a leading competitor's moves, for example. But there is no point in carrying out wild swings at rivals in a struggle for market share. Mathematical techniques can aid the efficiency of marketing planning and put on a more rational basis the decision on where to put the dollars.     

Attraction of marketing and sales professionals in the financial services industry: An analysis of pre-, during and post-financial crisis job postings

Attracting talent is key to a successful sales force, and financial services firms have long used online recruiting to achieve this. However, little is known about how firms attract financial services marketing and sales professionals. In this study, we present a content analysis of job postings for sales and marketing positions in the financial services industry that were posted before, during and after the financial crisis of 2008. Specifically, job postings in the United Kingdom and United States in 2006, 2009 and 2013 were examined. Implications for financial services firms are discussed.     

The new science of sales force productivity

For years, sales managers at many companies have relied on top performers and sheer numbers of sales reps to stay competitive. But while they may have squeaked by on this wing-and-a-prayer technique, their sales teams haven't thrived the way they once did. Today's most successful sales leaders are taking a more scientific approach. Savvy managers are reshaping their tactics in response to changing markets. They are reaching out to new customers in innovative ways. And they are increasing productivity by helping the reps they already have make the most of their skills and resources. Leaders who take a scientific approach to sales force effectiveness have learned to use four levers to boost their reps' productivity in a predictable and manageable way. First, they systematically target their firms' offerings, matching the right products with the right customers. Second, they optimize the automation, tools, and procedures at their disposal, providing reps with the support they need to boost sales.Third, they analyze and manage their reps' performance, measuring both internal processes and results to determine where their teams' strengths and weaknesses are. Fourth, they pay close attention to sales force deployment--how well sales, support, marketing, and delivery resources are matched to customers. These four levers can help sales leaders increase productivity across the board, the authors say, though they have the greatest impact on lower-ranked performers. The overall effect of increasing the average sales per employee can be exponential; it means a company won't have to rely on just a few talented individuals to stay competitive. This is especially important because finding and keeping star salespeople is more difficult than ever. What's more, managers who optimize the sales forces they already have can see returns they never thought possible.     

The benefits of expediting government gold sales

Additional gold can be made available either by mining at high cost (approximately $250 per ounce in 1997 dollars) or by mobilizing government stocks at zero cost. Governments own massive above-ground stocks but loan out only a small percentage of these stocks. Making all government gold available for private uses immediately through some combination of sales and loans maximizes total welfare from private uses, a consequence of the first welfare theorem. We simulate a calibrated version of our model to quantify the effects of liquidating government stocks on alternative dates. If governments sell immediately rather than never, total welfare increases by $340 billion; if they make an unanticipated sale in 20 years, $105 billion of that amount is lost. By depressing prices, such sales benefit depletion and service users but injure private owners of stocks above and below-ground. However, the injury to above-ground stock owners is more than offset by the benefits to service users—often the same individuals. Mine owners would be the principal losers; however, they could be compensated (twice over) from government sales revenue without any need for tax increases.     

Cash balance plans: helping employers meet today's staffing needs

The author examines how cash balance plans better meet employers' staffing needs than traditional pension plans. He asserts that out-of-date pension laws, rather than employers, are responsible for creating the very "abuses" that so many are complaining about with regard to cash balance plan conversions.     

The value relevance of timely information: The case of comparable store sales growth

Investors and analysts have called for more timely disclosure of corporate information. Responding to these demands, some retail firms issue comparable store sales (CSS) on a monthly or a quarterly basis in addition to an annual basis. This study examines whether a timely disclosure of CSS provides value-relevant information to market participants by examining investors' and financial analysts' responses at the time of CSS disclosures (short-horizon) and over the month or the quarter (long-horizon). We find that both monthly and quarterly CSS are associated with contemporaneous market returns and analyst forecast revisions. More importantly, we find that quarterly CSS news becomes less important to investors when firms provide more timely CSS information, indicating that monthly CSS reports may preempt the information content of quarterly CSS. Additional tests show that investors and analysts rely less on CSS if CSS news and earnings (sales) news are inconsistent.     

Banning short sales and market quality: The UK’s experience

We study the effects that the ban on short sales of shares in financial firms introduced in late 2008 and removed early 2009 had on the microstructure and the quality of UK equity markets. We show that the ban did nothing to affect order flows: financial stocks were being more aggressively sold off than their peers pre-ban and this situation persisted through the ban period. Trading volume in financials was massively reduced, however. The ban decimated order book liquidity for financials. The deterioration was symmetric, affecting the limit buy and limit sell side of the order book equally. Finally we show that, through the period of the ban, markets for financial stocks were substantially less efficient and that the role of the trading process in aiding price discovery was greatly reduced. The effects identified above were largely reversed once the ban was lifted. The persistence of the deterioration in market quality and liquidity though the relatively long-lasting UK ban on short selling suggests that other major market developments such as the TARP program were not responsible since these were concentrated in the early half of the ban. We thus argue that the short selling ban was responsible for detrimental effects on the quality of UK equity markets and that, far from being stabilising, the ban exacerbated problems in valuing UK financial stocks.     

The passive-aggressive organization

Passive-aggressive organizations are friendly places to work: People are congenial, conflict is rare, and consensus is easy to reach. But, at the end of the day, even the best proposals fail to gain traction, and a company can go nowhere so imperturbably that it's easy to pretend everything is fine. Such companies are not necessarily saddled with mulishly passive-aggressive employees. Rather, they are filled with mostly well-intentioned people who are the victirms of flawed processes and policies. Commonly, a growing company's halfhearted or poorly thought-out attempts to decentralize give rise to multiple layers of managers, whose authority for making decisions becomes increasingly unclear. Some managers, as a result, hang back, while others won't own up to the calls they've made, inviting colleagues to second-guess or overturn the decisions. In such organizations, information does not circulate freely, and that makes it difficult for workers to understand the impact of their actions on company performance and for managers to correctly appraise employees' value to the organization. A failure to accurately match incentives to performance stifles initiative, and people do just enough to get by. Breaking free from this pattern is hard; a long history of seeing corporate initiatives ignored and then fade away tends to make people cynical. Often it's best to bring in an outsider to signal that this time things will be different. He or she will need to address every obstacle all at once: clarify decision rights; see to it that decisions stick; and reward people for sharing information and adding value, not for successfully negotiating corporate politics. If those steps are not taken, it's only a matter of time before the diseased elements of a passive-aggressive organization overwhelm the remaining healthy ones and drive the company into financial distress.     

The market for interfirm asset sales: Partial sell-offs and total liquidations

We investigate the valuation consequences of voluntary proposals to sell part or all of a corporation's assets. For partial sell-offs, successful sellers and buyers reap statistically significant abnormal returns of 1.66% and 0.83%, respectively. Unsuccessful sellers realize gains at the bid announcement of 1.41% that are lost at the offer termination. In contrast, proposals to liquidate the firm are associated with significant average abnormal returns of 12.24%. We interpret these findings as evidence that asset sales are associated with the movement of resources to higher-valued uses rather than as evidence of market mispricing before the divestiture announcements.     

The ambidextrous organization

Corporate executives must constantly look backward, attending to the products and processes of the past, while also gazing forward, preparing for the innovations that will define the future. This mental balancing act is one of the toughest of all managerial challenges--it requires executives to explore new opportunities even as they work diligently to exploit existing capabilities--and it's no surprise that few companies do it well. But as every businessperson knows, there are companies that do. What's their secret? These organizations separate their new, exploratory units from their traditional, exploitative ones, allowing them to have different processes, structures, and cultures; at the same time, they maintain tight links across units at the senior executive level. Such "ambidextrous organizations," as the authors call them, allow executives to pioneer radical or disruptive innovations while also pursuing incremental gains. Of utmost importance to the ambidextrous organization are ambidextrous managers--executives who have the ability to understand and be sensitive to the needs of very different kinds of businesses. They possess the attributes of rigorous cost cutters and free-thinking entrepreneurs while also maintaining the objectivity required to make difficult trade-offs. Almost every company needs to renew itself through the creation of breakthrough products and processes, but it shouldn't do so at the expense of its traditional business. Building an ambidextrous organization is by no means easy, but the structure itself, combining organizational separation with senior team integration, is not difficult to understand. Given the executive will to make it happen, any company can become ambidextrous.     

The 2001 HBR list. Breakthrough ideas for today's business agenda

Business is shaped by ideas. But how do you separate enduring ideas from passing fancies? In this, the first edition of the annual HBR List, our editors spotlight five break-through ideas that are truly shaping the future of business. EVEN A GREAT BUSINESS MODEL IS NOT ENOUGH: The rise and fall of dot-coms left markets reeling and CEOs scratching their heads. The most important lesson of the debacle: squishy thinking about "business models" is no substitute for a distinctive strategy. CHANGE IS CHANGING: In recent years, pundits have urged executives to incite revolutions within their companies. But a growing group of experts now suggests that the best companies actually evolve through incremental change--change that builds on rather than subverts their heritage. EGO MAKES THE LEADER: By looking deeply into executives' psyches, we are beginning to unlock the enigma of leadership. While there will never be a single recipe for successful corporate stewardship, an understanding of the human ego can shed light on leadership's most fundamental components. ONLY CONNECT: In business organizations, what's really important about people is not their individual skills but the relationships they form with one another. By investing in "social capital," companies can often push their performance to a whole new level. THE BIOLOGY CENTURY DAWNS: In the twentieth century, product innovations tended to spring from physics. But in the new century, biology may be the central source of innovation. From genomics to biomimicry, the study of life promises to change what companies sell and even how they operate.     

Analyst forecasts: sales and profit margins

Review of Accounting Studies - Sales and profit margins are two popular earnings components discussed in the media. We study properties of one-year-ahead analyst forecasts of these two components....     

The 2002 HBR list. Breakthrough ideas for today's business agenda

In the last year, war broke out, the economy took a nosedive, and an alarming number of businesses went belly up. Thus it is with some urgency that we bring you this year's list of the seven best new business ideas to help you find your way through these complex times. History Returns. Many thought that the fall of the Berlin Wall marked the beginning of a new world order, one in which history didn't matter. But September 11, 2001, put an end to that theory. And it raised serious questions about globalization, security, and strategy. Enter the Everyday Leader--at Last. CEOs are used to getting all the glory, but leaders outside the limelight--middle managers and tempered radicals--are beginning to receive the attention they deserve. The Internet Is Not About You. The real value of the Internet may lie less in connecting individuals than in connecting databases, servers, and devices--a web not of people but of machines. Mind Your Behavior. Behavioral scientists are beginning to be able to accurately predict the ways individuals and crowds will respond to stimuli, and the implications for business are profound. Don't Delight Your Customers Away. Companies have wooed and coddled customers for too long. The truth is, people delight in being teased and are repelled by those who try too hard to befriend them. Games Are for Losers. Financial game playing and verbal politicking are seriously damaging businesses. Honesty is more than an admirable virtue; it's the foundation of every lasting enterprise. Three Cheers for Creativity (Sometimes). Creativity and best-practice replication are fundamentally different undertakings. Managers who mix the two achieve creativity that is merely incremental and replication that is sadly inept.     

The impact of settlement period on sales price

This study is an empirical investigation of the impact of settlement period on sales price while controlling for marketing period and standard explanatory variables. The hypothesized positive relationship between settlement period and sales price is confirmed by the results of this study. The estimated coefficient on settlement period is 0.0008 meaning that our market, on average, exacts a premium of 0.08 percent per day of settlement period beyond a norm of 60 days. The estimated coefficient on marketing period (a control variable) is –0.0003 meaning that our market, on average, requires a discount of 0.03 percent per day of marketing period. Our findings show the relative importance of settlement period in making real estate pricing decisions.     

The job rating game: Revolving doors and analyst incentives

Investment banks frequently hire analysts from rating agencies. While many argue that this “revolving door” creates captured analysts, it can also create incentives to improve accuracy. To study this issue, I construct an original data set, linking analysts to their career paths and the securitized finance ratings they issue. First, I show that accurate analysts are more frequently hired by underwriting investment banks. Second, I exploit two distinct sources of variation in the likelihood of being hired by a bank. Both indicate that, as this likelihood rises, analyst accuracy improves. The findings suggest policymakers should consider incentive effects alongside capture concerns.