香港联系汇率制度及其前景分析

本文从香港货币汇率制度演变出发．对其运行机制及前景进行分析．认为联系汇率制度是香港金融制度的基础,香港经济稳定和繁荣离不开联汇制的稳定。     

浅谈香港联系汇率制度未来的选择

近期以来,由于全球经济下滑,世界经济格局发生较大变化,美元的世界货币地位受到冲击,弱势美元理论导致港币与美元的联系汇率制度走到一个比较尴尬的境地。短期内。联系汇率制有着极强的抗外部冲击能力．短期内应该继续保持联系汇率制度;在长期,港元将与人民币一体化,走向统一货币。汇率制度将成为浮动汇率制度。     

香港联系汇率制度利弊及可持续性分析

香港自1983年实行的以货币局为特征的联系汇率制度以来，对香港经济的稳定起了重要作用。亚洲金融危机中联汇制度曾为人所诟病，并由此引出了关于这一制度存废的广泛讨论。近年随着香港经济形势的变化，有关联汇制度的发展问题再次受到关注。     

香港联系汇率制度能走多远？

【英国《金融时报》9月29日】美联储（Fed）日前的降息举措可能令市场雀跃不已，但香港此时却处于一个尴尬时刻，香港施行盯住美元的联系汇率制。 美联储联邦基金利率下调50个基点，至4．75％，这对于遭受信贷危机打击的美国经济是有益的。但对于一个拥有700万人口、领土面积狭小的地区而言，多数医生不会开出这样一个药方。[第一段]     

金融危机下的香港经济与联系汇率制度

金融危机袭来,作为国际金融中心和小型开放经济典型的香港难免受到巨大冲击,同样面临考验的还有联系汇率制度。自1983年10月份诞生以来,香港联系汇率制度不断面临着考验,在亚洲金融危机经受了最严峻的冲击,当时港币面临着贬值的压力;近年来,随着人民币相对于美元升值,面临着新考验－－港元升值的压力。     

香港联系汇率经得起风浪

货币贬值席卷东南亚,港元也受投机者冲击。但由于香港联系汇率赖之以的货币发行局制(Currency Board),虽有利有弊,但能发挥效用,以利联系汇率的捍卫。本文详细分析货币发行局制的利弊。     

从东南亚金融危机探究香港联系汇率的发展前景

<正> 自1997年下半年以来,受东南亚金融危机的连锁影响,香港金融也遭到了剧烈冲击。首先是港元现汇率在8月中旬一度跌穿7.75的心理关口至7.7548兑1美元,远期美元溢价也升至2000点。其后,随着金融监管局提高利率,股市又大幅下跌,恒生指数由16000余点急挫至8000点以下。尽管港府现已成功地捍卫了联系汇率制度,但其间所经历的动荡和由此所付出的代价足以使港元联系汇率制度的前途再次成为国际金融界关注的焦点。本文试图通过多方位的分析探讨联系汇率制的发展趋势。     

后金融危机时代香港联系汇率制度争议及改革

自2008年全球性金融危机爆发以来,香港联系汇率制度面临新的考验。文章通过分析后金融危机时代关于香港联系汇率制度的主要争议,得出结论：在香港联系汇率制度中加入人民币因素是其未来发展的趋势和方向,而现阶段的政策重点应是进一步加强两地协商和配合,共同推进港元汇率制度的平稳与协调运作。     

Exchange Rate Pegs, Fiscal Policy and Credibility

In a fixed exchange rate regime, an exchange rate change can be a swift way to change the real exchange rate in the short run. Fiscal policy also affects relative prices, and fiscal policy response to various types of shocks can therefore be crucial for the credibility of an exchange rate peg. We develop a model within which fiscal policy plays a crucial role for ensuring the viability and thus credibility of an exchange rate peg. We use the insights of this model to take a closer look at Denmark, which has successfully pursued a fixed exchange rate policy since 1982.

固定汇率制度下的财政政策:开放经济宏观经济学的拓展

本文主要建立在新开放主义宏观经济学理论上,进一步拓展和分析不同财政政策在固定汇率制度下对国民经济的影响,如消费、产出与汇率等。通过引入迭代模型的基本框架从而打破传统的李嘉图等价假设,我们发现因为有限生命代理人把所购买的国债看作是一种净财富,所以通过发行债券融资而导致的政府支出暂时的增加毫无疑问地将会增加本国居民相对于国外居民的消费水平。而另一方面,由于汇率水平固定不变和短期的价格粘性,政府支出增加的部分将平均分配给本国和外国商品。因此,政府支出暂时的增加将会减少本国的净国外资产头寸。而对于货币政策来说,本国居民相对消费水平的增加将导致本国货币升值压力,本国中央银行为了维系固定汇率水平不得不被动地增加货币供给。     

The Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate

We study the empirical effects of fiscal policy in Denmark since the adoption of a fixed exchange rate policy in 1982. Denmark’s fixed exchange rate implies that the nominal interest rate remains fixed after a fiscal expansion, facilitating a substantial impact of the fiscal stimulus on the real economy. On the other hand, the large degree of openness of the Danish economy means that a sizeable share of the fiscal stimulus will be directed towards imported goods. Our results suggest that the ‘monetary accomodation channel’ dominates the ‘leakage effect’ in the short run. We demonstrate that fiscal stimulus has a rather large impact on economic activity in the very short run, with a government spending multiplier of 1.1 on impact in our preferred specification. We also find that the effects of fiscal stimulus are rather short-lived in Denmark, with the effect on output becoming insignificant after around two years. The fiscal multiplier is above 1 only in the first quarter, and drops to 0.6 one year after the shock. We also find that in the short run, the government spending multiplier is larger than the tax multiplier. Finally, we demonstrate that exogenous shocks to government spending account for less than 10 % of the movements in output over the business cycle in Denmark.     

中日贸易逆差与汇率之间关系的实证分析

文章基于VAR模型的研究方法,应用季度数据,分析2001--2007年间汇率和需求等因素对中日两国双边贸易收支的影响。结果显示：长期中汇率与中日贸易收支不满足马歇尔-勒纳条件,短期内实际汇率对贸易逆差的调节作用很小。无论在短期还是长期,真正影响中日双边贸易收支的因素是日本的国内需求和政治因素。葛兰杰因果检验显示中国对日本的贸易逆差是日本经济复苏的原因。     

关于人民币汇率问题的思考与政策建议

人民币汇率近几年来成为国内外关注的焦点,1997年东亚金融危机爆发后,国际金融界连续几年投机人民币大幅贬值,2003年以后则反过来投机人民币大幅升值.升值问题最早由日本政府在2003年春的七国峰会上提出,指责人民币币值严重低估,中国大量向国际市场倾销廉价产品,导致国际上出现通货紧缩.     

美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率:实证研究

1998年～2003年月度数据计量表明，美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率之间没有长期稳定的协整关系。并且，依据美中两国月度统计数据计量的结论是相一致的。由此，人民币汇率浮动并不能解决美中贸易逆差问题。美中贸易逆差主要集中在原料制品、机械与运输设备，以及杂项制品贸易上，造成美中贸易逆差的真正原因是中国在劳动密集型和资源易耗性产品对美贸易上发挥出比较优势，而美国在高技术产品对华贸易上由于出口管制政策没有发挥出比较优势。政策建议是，美国要想缩减美中贸易逆差，就必须逐步取消在高技术产品贸易上对华出口管制政策。对于中国来说，在鼓励出口的同时，应重视从美进口，采取以出口带动进口，以进口促进出口的贸易政策。     

Fear of Floating: Korea's Exchange Rate Policy after the Crisis

The purpose of this paper is to explore the question of whether a free floating exchange rate regime is a viable option for Korea. This paper divides the sample period into three subperiods: pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis. We then analyze the causal relationships among both levels and volatility of three financial variables: exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices. By using Granger causality tests and variance decomposition, our empirical results show that causal relations among the three variables are weak during the post-crisis period, and furthermore, shocks in other financial markets do not have a significant contribution to explain the variations of each variable's forecast errors. Based on these empirical findings, we infer that the Korean government, having adopted the de jure freely floating exchange rate regime, is still fearful of floating for various reasons. J. Japan. Int. Econ., June 2001, 15(2), pp. 225–251. Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, Korea; Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, Seoul, Korea. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F3, F4.     

Managing in the Middle: Characterizing Singapore's Exchange Rate Policy*

It is by now common knowledge that there can be a significant divergence in the de facto versus de jure exchange rate regimes operated by economies. Although much of the recent published literature in Asia has focused on the crisis-hit economies, Korea and Thailand in particular, scant attention has been paid to Singapore, which officially targets its nominal effective exchange rate (around a band). The present paper examines the degree of exchange rate intervention for Singapore using various methods of assessing de facto exchange rate regimes. In the main, we show that although the Singapore dollar is primarily influenced by the US dollar, in keeping with its de jure classification of a basket pegged regime, other major currencies, such as the yen and the euro, also impact the Singapore dollar. There is also evidence to indicate that Singapore uses the nominal effective exchange rate strategically as a policy instrument to satisfy domestic inflation objectives.     

Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Crisis

This paper examines monetary policy during the Indonesian crisis, looking in particular at what should have been the proper focus of policy. Both the exchange rate and money base have been suggested as appropriate policy objectives, but it is argued here that neither provides adequate policy guidance during a crisis.     

再论中国货币政策与汇率政策的冲突

自1994年以来中国货币政策与汇率政策有三次冲突。根据笔者的研究,中国存在事实上的资本自由流动,根据这一结果和克鲁格曼“三元悖论"理论,中国的货币政策和汇率政策存在不可调和的冲突。从一定意义上讲,中国政府在经济决策方面必须就内部经济均衡和外部经济均衡何者优先的问题做出选择;对货币当局而言,人民币对内币值稳定和对外币值的稳定何者优先也同样是一个值得考虑的问题。谢平和张晓朴在2002年《国际经济评论》第3期上撰文《货币政策与汇率政策的三次冲突》,对1994―2000年中国货币政策与汇率政策的三次冲突进行了探讨。张斌在2004年…