基于中国整体不良贷款增长的债务危机研究

2008年的信贷盛宴结束后,随着信贷收缩和经济进一步放缓,中国的不良贷款规模已急速膨胀,各个领域信用危机初见端倪：中国地方债被国际社会认为会是下一次金融危机的导火索;制造业产能过剩,企业盈利快速下降,可能引发债务违约;中国银行业坏账率连续上升,银行间借贷成本也迅速攀升;信托业年初爆发危机;担保业入不敷出、逐渐萎缩;影子银行暗中大举扩张…中国社会信用危机全面升级。     

基于中国整体不良贷款增长的债务危机研究

2008年的信贷盛宴结束后,随着信贷收缩和经济进一步放缓,中国的不良贷款规模已急速膨胀,各个领域信用危机初见端倪:中国地方债被国际社会认为会是下一次金融危机的导火索;制造业产能过剩,企业盈利快速下降,可能引发债务违约;中国银行业坏账率连续上升,银行间借贷成本也迅速攀升;信托业年初爆发危机;担保业入不敷出、逐渐萎缩;影子银行暗中大举扩张…中国社会信用危机全面升级。     

史晨昱:中国经济处在周期换挡的交锋期

中国经济走势呈现"前高后低"已成共识,在经济增速放缓的大背景下,关于中国经济前景,有两种担忧,即"二次探底"和"滞胀"。由于低基数效应,一季度GDP增长高达11.9%,较之而言,二季度以后的经济增速势必持续回落,尤其是下半年由于去年同期的基数较高,下滑幅度将更大。但中国经济仍处在稳定增长区。     

中国将成全球最大企业债务市场

英国《金融时报》5月15日报道称,国际三大评级机构之一的标准普尔(简称标普)发布的一份报告预测,中国将在未来两年内超越美国,成为全球非金融企业的最大企业债务市场。据报道,标普在报告中预期,中国企业的债务需求到2017年底可能达到18万亿美元(约合人民币110万亿)以上,占未来五年全球企业53万亿美元(约合人民币325万亿元)新债和再融资预测需求的三分之一。报告称,基于更为强劲的经济增长推动债务发行的推断,中国非金融企业到2014年底可能欠债13.8万亿     

重提脱钩论：信贷周期启动下的中国经济及其影响

近期,关于宏观经济和金融市场走势的分歧非常明显,上市公司的年报和季报的披露也将进入密集期。不过,在中国相互矛盾的宏观数据中,笔者个人认为信贷的高速增长以及实际利率水平的大幅降低,对把握整个宏观经济走势具有重要的意义。2007年底,中国经济与西方经济脱钩的说法一度盛行,2008年下半年中国经济的迅速回落使得这种分析几乎销声匿迹。但是,从各种经济数据分析,在这些国际金融机构几乎忘记脱钩论的时期,2009年可能是中国经济重提脱钩论的合适时机。     

欧美债务危机:压垮中国股市的一根稻草

2009年12月8日,全球三大评级机构之一的惠誉宣布,将希腊主权信用评级由"A-"降为"BBB+",拉开了欧美债务危机的序幕。今年以来,中国出现中小企业倒闭潮,很多人哀叹当前的形势比2008年次贷危机的时候还要严     

中国宏观经济分析与预测:2007-2008——财富结构快速调整中的中国宏观经济

中国的宏观经济依然处于总供给和总需求基本均衡的健康轨迹,固定资产投资和外贸增长的性质和方式决定了目前的强劲增长势头可以延续,结构性价格上涨压力演变成全面通胀的可能性不大.在非均衡增长战略之下,经济高速增长和金融深化进程的加速不仅带动了财富的快速积累,也使得财富结构迅速调整.财富的总量扩张和结构调整,使资本市场和不动产市场的价格自我强化机制开始显现,中国宏观经济在金融层面与实体层面的分离加大.     

在金融功能观视角下探索中国农村金融改革的新思路——评《中国农村金融服务体系创新研究》

农村经济发展滞后经成为制约我国国民经济持续快速健康发展的最大障碍。在当前及其今后相当长一段时期内,统筹城乡发展、促进农村经济增长都将处于各项战略任务的首位。金融是现代经济的核心,一个充满生机与活力的农村经济离不开金融支持。经过三十多年的改革,以商业性、政策性与合作性金融机构为主导的我国农村金融体系格局已初步形成,但我们离一个规范、健全的农村金融服务体系还相去甚远。已有的农村     

Firm life cycle and debt maturity structure: evidence from China

This study examines the effect of firm life cycle on debt maturity structure (DMS) in China. We reveal that DMS is relatively low in the introduction and recession periods, while long‐term debt ratio of growth companies is high. Companies in booming industries need funds but have difficulty obtaining long‐term loans, whereas companies in recession can use more long‐term loans. The Chow test shows that DMS changed markedly before and after the new normal of China’s economy and the implementation of the ‘mass entrepreneurship and innovation campaign’. It is urgent to address sunset industries to improve the efficiency of resource allocation.     

Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle

Housing and mortgage debt are studied in a quantitative general equilibrium model. The model matches wealth distribution, age profiles of homeownership and debt, and frequency of housing adjustment. Over the cycle, the model matches the cyclicality and volatility of housing investment, and the procyclicality of debt. Higher individual income risk and lower downpayments can explain the reduced volatility of housing investment, the reduced procyclicality of debt, and part of the reduced volatility of GDP. In an experiment that mimics the Great Recession, countercyclical financial conditions can account for large drops in housing activity and debt following large negative shocks.     

The cost of private debt over the credit cycle

We identify global and regional fluctuations in international private debt flows to emerging and developing countries using data on cross-border loans and international bond issuance over 1993–2009. We use micro-level data on syndicated cross-border loans and international bond placements to estimate the effects of individual borrower characteristics as well as macroeconomic conditions on the cost of foreign borrowing and test whether these effects differ across phases of the lending cycle. First, we find that borrower characteristics associated with lower loan spreads are not necessarily associated with lower bond spreads. Second, we find differential effects of borrower characteristics between cycle phases for loans and bonds separately. Third, we find strong reductions in the cost of debt finance during periods when international debt flows are more than one standard deviation above their mean, but not for expansionary periods, when the growth rate of debt flows is increasing. We also find that higher trade ratios in the borrower's home country raise loan spreads more in periods of high credit flows but have no effect on bond spreads. At the same time, borrowers residing in countries with high investment ratios pay lower spreads on bond issuance particularly during periods of high credit flows, but we find no similar effect for loan spreads. Inflation rates, real exchange rates and previous banking crises have small impacts on loan and bond spreads.     

金融危机下我国金融监管的博弈分析

文章运用博弈论的思想和方法,建立了金融监管的博弈分析模型,并依据模型对金融监管进行了博弈分析。在此基础上,提出监管者需要节约监管成本、提高监管效率,构建完善的金融监管体系;同时,对金融机构也要制定一系列的激励约束机制,最终达到促进金融业合法、稳健运行的目的。     

中国金融周期:基于信贷配给视角

本文首先基于我国企业层面的数据分析当前我国的信贷配给规则,其次通过理论和实证的方法厘清信贷配给规则与金融周期的内生机制,再次利用信贷配给规则划分我国金融周期,对当前周期进行分析,最后基于金融经济平稳运行的角度,提出完善信贷配给规则的对策建议。本文的主要研究结论如下:一是国有企业和大型企业等经济主体更容易获得银行贷款,反映出当前信贷配给规则的主要特征;二是当前配给规则会对银行不良贷款产生显著的负面影响效应;三是基于信贷配给规则的金融周期仍在相对高位运行,当前信贷配给规则还有深度调整的必要性。     

跨境数据流动:数字经济下的全球博弈与中国选择

随着信息和技术革命的推进,数字经济已经成为全球经济发展的新要求和新趋势,跨境电商、数字贸易等数字经济在全球范围内加速发展,经济贸易全球化推动了数据在不同国家之间交互、流动。跨境数据流动治理对发展数字经济、维护国家安全、构建数字红利收入分配体系至关重要。全球各国对跨境数据流动的规制反映了其国际博弈的战略:美欧等发达经济体希望促进数据自由流动;而发展中国家则采取"本土化"防御方式,抵御数据领域的长臂管辖。我国选择了适应当前数字经济发展形势的"本土化"政策,但也面临对外和对内等多重挑战。建议在总体的监管路径选择上,合理兼顾审慎性和包容性;完善跨境数据流动制度体系,保障立法的全面性和灵活性;构建跨境数据流动治理的统一监管架构,提升治理体系的统筹性和协同性;完善跨境数据流动安全评估体系,平衡金融市场的开放性和安全性。     

Sovereign debt disputes: A database on government coerciveness during debt crises

This paper measures “debt disputes” between governments and foreign private creditors in periods of sovereign debt crises. We construct an index of government coerciveness, consisting of 9 objective sub-indicators. Each of these sub-indicators captures unilateral government actions imposed on foreign banks and bondholders. The results provide the first systematic account of debt crises that goes beyond a binary categorization of default versus non-default. Overall, government behavior and rhetoric show a strong variability, ranging from highly confrontational to very smooth crisis resolution processes. In a preliminary analysis on the determinants of coercive behavior, we find political institutions to be significant, while economic and financial factors play a lesser role. These results open up an agenda for future research.     

Accounting and non-accounting based information in the market for debt: Evidence from Australian private debt contracts

This paper examines accounting and non-accounting based restrictive covenants in Australian private debt agreements. With respect to the former, our findings differ from previous research on public debt. We find more varied definitions of constraints and their specified tightness in private debt contracts than in public debt contracts. Further, limits on interest cover are found to be continuing constraints and not 'once-off' limits. The paper reports frequent use of more specific or 'tailored' accounting based constraints and the frequent inclusion of off-balance sheet numbers in the measurement rules specified.
The paper also provides the first Australian evidence on the use of non-accounting based constraints. These are pervasive and cover a wide range of corporate activity. While largely consistent with previous research the paper also reports evidence of restrictions previously argued to be sub-optimal and hence, unlikely to be observed. Specifically, there are frequent restrictions on firms' production and investment policies.     

我国反洗钱工作中行为选择的博弈分析

反洗钱对于维护社会公平正义、保障金融安全和打击贪污腐败等犯罪活动有重要的意义。本文在分析我国反洗钱工作现状的基础上,运用博弈论分析方法,通过构造成本收益模型,分析反洗钱工作中各方的行为选择,并借鉴美国反洗钱工作的经验,探讨符合我国国情、能够改善和提高反洗钱工作效能的政策建议。