China＇s Exchange Rate and Financial Repression： The Conflicted Emergence of the RMB as an International Currency

Instability in the worm dollar standard, as most recently manifested in the US Federal Reserve＇s near-zero interest rate policy, has caused consternation in emerging markets with naturally higher interest rates. China has been provoked into speeding RMB ＂internationalization ＂; that is, opening up domestic financial markets to reduce its dependence on the US dollar for invoicing trade and making international payments. However, despite rapid percentage growth in offshore financial markets in RMB, the Chinese authorities are essentially trapped into maintaining exchange controls （reinforced by financial repression in domestic interest rates） to avoid an avalanche of foreign capital inflows that would threaten inflation and asset price bubbles by driving nominal interest rates on RMB assets down further. Because a floating （appreciating） exchange rate could attract even more hot money inflows, the People＇s Bank of China should focus on keeping the yuan/dollar rate stable so as to encourage naturally high wage increases to help balance China ＂s international competitiveness. However, further internationalization of the RMB, as with the proposed Shanghai pilot free trade zone, is best deferred until world interest rates rise to more normal levels.     

A Lesson Learned from the Comparison of Bank Interest Rate in US and UK

According to the interest board, the current account interest and the loan interest rate vary from banks to countries. Both the current account interest and loan interest of US banks are lower than those of UK banks. And the spread between the two interest rates is greater in UK than that in US. Why is that？ The central banks base rates are always the reference interest rates for other banks when setting up the interest rates of their own. And the economy situation in that country may be a factor that affects the spread. Moreover, these two aspects link to each other. In this paper, we will look deeply into the economic situation and the pattern of change in the central bank interest rates in US and UK, hopefully we can bum a light to figure out the trend of change in bank interest rates.     

Pass-through Effects of Global Commodity Prices on China＇s Inflation： An Empirical Investigation

The present paper uses a two-step approach to estimate the pass-through effects of changes in international commodity prices and the RMB exchange rate on domestic consumer price inflation in China. We first estimate the pass-through effects of international commodity prices on producer prices and then estimate the pass-through effects of producer price inflation on consumer price inflation. We find that a l O-percent increase in international commodity prices would lead to China＇ s producer prices increasing by 1.2 percent 3 months later, which in turn would increase China＇ s domestic inflation by 0.24 percent over the same period. However, a 10-percent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar would help to reduce increases in producer prices by 4.4 percent over the following 3 months, which in turn would lead to a 0. 89-percent decline in consumer price inflation over the same period. Our findings suggest that appreciation of the RMB in an environment of rising global commodity prices and a weak US dollar could be an effective instrument to help contain inflation in China.     

Anomaly in China＇s Dollar-RMB

Newly-established data on onshore deliverable US dollar-RMB forwards and the Shanghai lnterbank Offered Rate from Oetober 2006 to April 2009 reveal significant violations of covered interest rate parity. This paper explains the cause of this anomaly. Deviations in the forward market are caused by an increase in US dollar-to-RMB conversion restrictions. Given that Chinese monetary authorities want to prevent market participants from taking advantage of the predictable appreciation of the RMB, China＇s State Administration of Foreign Exchange has to tighten up the control on US dollar-to-RMB conversions. Under the tightened conversion restrictions, similar deviations will resurface in the forward market whenever hot money inflow increases. One way to avoid covered interest rate parity violations in the forward market is to decrease hot money inflow into China by maintaining a stable and credible exchange rate policy.     

The Case for Stabilizing China＇s Exchange Rate： Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion

China＇s financial conundrum arises from two sources. First, its large saving （trade） surplus results in a currency mismatch because it is an immature creditor that cannot lend in its own currency. Instead, foreign currency claims （largely US dollars） build up within domestic financial institutions. Second, economists, both American and Chinese, mistakenly attribute the surpluses to an undervalued RMB. To placate the USA, the result was a gradual and predictable appreciation of the RMB against the dollar of 6 percent or more per year from July 2005 to July 2008. Together with the fall in US interest rates since mid-2007, this one- way bet in the foreign exchanges markets not only attracted hot money inflows but inhibited private capital outflows from financing China＇ s huge trade surplus. Therefore, the People＇s Bank of China had to intervene heavily to prevent the RMB from ratcheting upwards, and so became the country＇s sole international financial intermediary as official exchange reserves exploded Because of the currency mismatch, floating the RMB is neither feasible nor desirable, and a higher RMB would not reduce China＇ s trade surplus. Instead, monetary control and normal private-sector finance for the trade surplus require a return to a credibly fixed nominal RMB/USD rate similar to that which existed between 1995 and 2004. However, for any newly reset RMB/USD rate to be credible as a monetary anchor, foreign ＂China bashing＂ to get the RMB up must end. Then the stage would be set for fiscal expansion to both stimulate the economy and reduce its trade surplus.     

Retrospect of the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime after Reform： Stylized Facts during the Period from 2005 to 2010

In the present paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, the currency basket, the floating band and the foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime in 2005. We find the following stylized facts： the value of the RAIB became stable after the reform; the weight of the US dollar remained high in the basket, while other currencies remained statistically significant; and the floating band gradually increased to lO percent during 2005-2008, and then greatly narrowed from the late summer of 2008 under the assumption of a yearly resetting interval. We find that the foreign exchange market pressure increased from 2005 to 2008. A possible reason is that the weight of the US dollar in the basket was slightly lower than the share of the US dollar in total transactions on the Chinese foreign exchange market. Therefore, it is reasonable for China to adopt a dollar peg exchange rate regime.     

Interest Rate Pass-through in a Dual-track System： Evidence from China

Using the Phillips-Loretan approach, this paper verifies the degree and speed of pass- through and rigidity of different interest rates in China, as well as the response of private loan interest rates to other interest rates during 2002-2012. The results indicate that the long-term pass-through from the interbank offered rates and deposit and loan interest rates to the treasury bond rate is incomplete, but that the long-term pass-through to private loan interest rates is overshooting. The long-term pass-through from the deposit and loan interest rates to the overnight interbank offered rate is incomplete, while that to the interbank offered rates of other maturities is complete. The short-term passthrough and adjustment speed of interest rates exhibit asymmetry. Therefore, before considering a full liberalization of interest rates, it is important to further enhance the competition of the financial system and the function of different interest rate systems, such as the interhank market and bond market.     

An analysis on the relationship between RMB interest rate and exchange rate based on BEER model

The internal money market and international money market will mix together when the finance market is open. Researching on the relationship between interest rate and RMB exchange rate is so meaningful. Based on the reality of market-based reform in our country, the paper employs the BEER model to analyze the interest rate＇s influence to the RMB equilibrium exchange rate, and inspects the realistic performance of the interest rate and exchange rate mechanism. Then it seeks some effective measures to promote the interactive development of the interest rate and exchange rate markets.     

International payment finality requires a supranational central-bank money： Reforming the international monetary architecture in the spirit of Keynes

Payment finality is a key issue domestically as well as across a country＇s borders. In the current international monetary architecture, the existing protocols for a delivery-versus-payment operation with central-bank money do not and cannot provide for international payment finality through the links that national central banks have established between themselves on a multilateral basis. This problem concerns each country considered as a whole, but not its residents. In this connection, moving from a positive to a normative analysis, this paper points out the lack of an international settlement institution, as well as the ways and means to provide such an institution, as the result of a structural change of the current international monetary architecture. The lack of an international means of final payment implies that, to date, countries use national currencies as objects of trade, which are thereby subjected to supply and demand on the foreign-exchange market, where exchange rates may, and do, vary daily according to a currency＇s excess demand （either positive or negative） with respect to another currency. This paper argues that exchange rates＇ erratic volatility is the result of the current international monetary disorder, which denatures national currencies when they are traded on foreign-exchange markets.     

The Development of China＇s Electronics Industry： Causes and Constraints

The development of China‘s electronics industry can be attributed to supportive government policies, strong domestic market demand and the opportunities provided by the international transfer of technology in the electronic manufacturing sector. China‘s enterprises can only continue to develop through technological upgrading due to the lack of core technologies of their own. Since this process is still ongoing, China has not become a competitive country in the field of electronic technology. As a country in transition, government initiatives designed to encourage the development of the electronics industry have also undergone changes in line with economic institutional reform. Direct government intervention policies have been gradually replaced by indirect regulatory policies and the market is playing a more and more important role in the electronics industry.     

Why China Should Invest Its Foreign Exchange Reserves in the Major US Banks

The subprime mortgage crisis and the resultant inflationary monetary policy in the USA have left the Chinese economy subject to four risks in particular. First, China＇s exports to the USA might continue to decline. Second in the medium term, the higher US inflation rate will lead to a weak dollar, which will negatively affect China＇s exports. Third in the long term, when the US Federal Reserve decreases money supply to control inflation, the US economy might enter another recession, hurting China ＂s exports further. Fourth, China＇s foreign exchange reserve assets might suffer heavy losses when the US inflation rate rises. Conventional foreign exchange investment strategies are insufficient for dealing with these four risks. Investment by China in the major US banks is suggested in the present paper. This strategy would mitigate if not eliminate all four risks. China could gain considerable financial returns on investments with only moderate risk.     

Chinese Stylized Sterilization： The Cost-sharing Mechanism and Financial Repression

This paper attempts to explain why sterilized intervention was so successful and sustainable in China during the first decade of the 21st century.We argue that the Chinese Government established a sterilization cost-sharing mechanism among the People’s Bank of China, commercial banks and the household sector.On the one hand,Chinese commercial banks have to assume some of the sterilization costs by purchasing low yield central bank bills and maintaining high levels of required reserves.On the other hand,Chinese households assume some of the sterilization costs by bearing negative real deposit interest rates.The costsharing mechanism under financial repression prevents a huge quasi-fiscal loss by the People’s Bank of China as well as high inflation.However,Chinese households have become victims of this financial repression.Faced with the pressure of changing the growth model from investment-driven to domestic consumption-driven,the interest rate will have to be liberalized eventually,which will,in turn,make sterilized intervention unsustainable.     

Pricing to Market： Chinese Export Pricing to the USA after the Peg

In July 2005, the Chinese Government unpegged the RMB from the US dollar. As the RMB has followed a remarkably predictable appreciation over time, I examine the price of Chinese exports to the USA after unpegging the exchange rate. Results suggest that the Chinese industries with greater import market share were able to raise their prices after the removal of the pegged exchange rate regime; however, over time there is a significant deflationary trend. Chinese export prices tended to decrease under an unanticipated RMB appreciation; this effect was more pronounced for industries with more pricing flexibility. This suggests that Chinese exporters are consistently ＂pricing to market＂ and thus creating a significant foreign exchange policy implication. Specifically, a more flexible exchange rate regime will likely have little impact on the prices of Chinese exports to the USA but might increase the profit volatility of Chinese firms.     

The relationship between national saving and domestic investment in economy of Iran

In this paper, the relationship between national savings and domestic investment is examined in order to determine the degree of international capital mobility in Iran＇s economy over the sample period （1959-2007）. To this end, first the savings and investment correlation as postulated by Feldstein and Horioka was revisited using the recently developed bound testing approach （ARDL）. Amongst the key results, was a significant and robust positive association between the ratio of gross domestic investment to gross domestic product and the ratio of national savings to gross domestic product. Next, the coefficient of ECM derived from the ARDL test showed that the speed of adjustment in the estimated models was relatively high and has the expected significant and negative sign. The results indicate that deviation from the long-term path was corrected by approximately 63 percent over the following year. In addition, the savings-investment correlation relationship is examined in terms of an error correction model in order to gain some insight into the degree of capital mobility. The results show that savings and investment are to a great extent co-integrated. In other words, there is a significant long-run relationship between savings and investment in the Iranian economy. Also, the long-run relationship between these variables shows a low degree of capital mobility in Iran, because government policies have had no considerable effect on the savings-investment gap in Iran. The empirical findings suggest that liberalizing both the exchange rate system and interest rates and facilitating capital flow would increase international capital mobility.     

China's Exchange Rate Movements and Corporate Currency Invoicing Strategies

Since China introduced a new managed floating exchange rate regime in 2005, the persistent appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar has led Chinese firms to reassess their choice of invoice currency among the dollar and other international alternatives to price their exports. The present paper performs a systematic invoice currency analysis by surveying the published literature, summarizing criteria for decision-making, and evaluating the choices available to Chinese exporters implementing currency invoicing strategies to maximize expected profits. This study finds that the euro could play an increasing role as the invoice currency of Chinese firms, although the US dollar will still play a dominant role. Chinese exporters might shift gradually from the dollar to the euro in the face of the falling dollar, balancing between the two by necessity.     

Understanding Failure in International Retailing： An Institutional Framework for Future Investigation

The move from domestic market to one that includes major retailers. Whiles prior research acknowledged differences international firms is not proving an easy task for between country environments and stressed the importance of addressing these differences in order to avoid the dangers and failures inherent in internationalisation, there is still lack of suitable framework that captures the effects of the institutional environment on failure in international retailing. The purpose of this paper is to introduce institutional theory as a complementary framework to explain failure in international retailing and suggest propositions for further research. The paper seeks to answer the research question： What are the factors in the institutional environment of a host country that affect failure in international retailing？ Consequently, the objective of this paper is threefold： （1） to introduce institutional theory as alternative theoretical framework to conceptualise failure in international retailing; （2） to identify institutional factors that exert pressures on the operational activities of international retailers in foreign markets and which leads to failure; （3） to provide some research propositions for further investigation. This paper offers several contributions. First, we extend current theories in international business, particularly, the literature on retail internationalisation and institutional theory by exploring pressures and difficulties that international retailers face in a new host institutional environment. Second, we identify a set of institutional factors that exert pressures on international retailers in foreign markets that lead to failure. Finally, with the institutional approach, this study fills the gap in earlier works by developing a complementary framework along with 11 propositions for future research. One major limitation of this paper is that it is conceptual; hence, further empirical analysis is needed to test the suggested propositions.     

Rise and Fall of the First Financial Futures Market in China： The Case of Chinese Government Bond Futures

This paper studies the rise and fall of the first financial futures market in China. We compare the characteristics in the Chinese Government bond futures market with those in the US T-bond futures market. They differ in market design and structure, market governance, margin requirements, position limits, delivery process, and the way in which the settlement price is calculated. Furthermore, with a unique dataset, we show that prior to maturities of government bond futures, traders began to accumulate significant amounts of long positions for several selected contracts without the intention to offset, forcing short position holders to either purchase deliverable bonds or offset futures at highly inflated prices, causing higher market volatility and price disequilibrium in both spot and futures markets. Arbitrage opportunity arises and the market eventually collapses. The lessons learned from the suspension of the Chinese Government bond futures market offer an invaluable learning experience.     

Competitive Neutrality of the OECD Consensus Myth or Reality

This research paper gives into context ongoing changes in the balance of forces in the international markets caused not only by the crisis and the need to restore market-neutral internationally agreed system for state participation in the support for exports based on real economic criteria. The aim of this research is to demonstrate the changes of the balance of forces in the international markets. This paper presented the statistical data relating to development of GDP, indebtedness or value of exports or imports that the present changes in international markets and open discussion about the topic problem. This article recalled the basic principles of insurance and export financing with state support and also are presented current problems of implementation rules of the CONSENSUS. Due to the fact that state support for exports is an important internationally respected system it is necessary to overcome some doubts and bring to the system real market neutrality. Therefore, we ask whether are respected in practice the agreed principles of international state aid exports and what problems currently international markets and fundamentally different countries are struggling. It can be said that the rules CONSENSUS OECD has contributed to the creation of fair market conditions in international markets, but it can be also monitored over time to some extent being away from the demands of market neutrality. In view of these facts it can be considered as the basis of the current situation primarily to ensure a truly market and competitive neutrality of state support for exports.     

How China＇s Holdings of Foreign Reserves Affect the Value of the US Dollar in Europe and Asia

By January 2009, China held almost US$2tn in foreign reserves. The present paper estimates the marginal effect of China changing its holdings offoreign reserves on the value of the US dollar in Europe and dsia. Because using traditional techniques to find this estimate would be inappropriate due to severe problems resulting from omitted variables, the present paper uses a new approach, bidirectional-reiterative trucated projected least squares, that has been proven to minimize problems associated with omitted variables. It is found that if China would sell 1 percent of its foreign reserves, then the value of the US dollar would fall by 0.44 percent. With such a large effect, China has an incentive to either not sell arty of its US dollar reserves or sell all of its US dollar reserves.     

A Theoretical Probe on the Establishment of Chinese Union Pay among Chinese Banks

With China＇s entering WTO and the gradual opening of finance market, domestic banks, whether large or small, state-owned or not, are confronted with challenges and fierce competitions from foreign consortiums and banks. Consequently, it arouses a warm debate over whether China Union Pay should be established among native banks. This paper focuses mainly on this issue, through game theory analysis; it clearly articulated the significance and necessity of setting up China Union Pay among native banks and also compared between the benefits and loss of them to get the final recommendation.